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2019-20 State Of The Habs


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Heading into the off week on a high. Nice string of games. The loss to Chicago stunk, but the wins against Calgary and Philadelphia were convincing. Shame we couldn't put together a more stellar effort against Las Vegas, but we did get the win, so... that's something! Carey's been better recently.

I still don't see how Bergevin could consider this a playoff team. I think he has to go into the deadline looking to get picks or prospects for players like Kovalchuk, Thompson, Cousins, and Scandella. Probably not a lot to be had for those guys, but... something is better than nothing.

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3 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Heading into the off week on a high. Nice string of games. The loss to Chicago stunk, but the wins against Calgary and Philadelphia were convincing. Shame we couldn't put together a more stellar effort against Las Vegas, but we did get the win, so... that's something! Carey's been better recently.

I still don't see how Bergevin could consider this a playoff team. I think he has to go into the deadline looking to get picks or prospects for players like Kovalchuk, Thompson, Cousins, and Scandella. Probably not a lot to be had for those guys, but... something is better than nothing.

I agree that the odds are heavily stacked against us.  I believe Bergevin thinks our odds are better though & I think he will go into the TD doing basically nothing. Maybe adding a piece or two but likely not trading anyone unless its someone insignificant.   I think he probably believes we can (and will) make the playoffs.  I also believe he intends to resign Kovy and Scandella. 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I agree that the odds are heavily stacked against us.  I believe Bergevin thinks our odds are better though & I think he will go into the TD doing basically nothing. Maybe adding a piece or two but likely not trading anyone unless its someone insignificant.   I think he probably believes we can (and will) make the playoffs.  I also believe he intends to resign Kovy and Scandella. 

I think you are 100% on the money.

 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I agree that the odds are heavily stacked against us.  I believe Bergevin thinks our odds are better though & I think he will go into the TD doing basically nothing. Maybe adding a piece or two but likely not trading anyone unless its someone insignificant.   I think he probably believes we can (and will) make the playoffs.  I also believe he intends to resign Kovy and Scandella. 

    Kovy is the feel good part of this year  aside from Suzuki   ( and according to Kovy himself he isn't quite at 100 % yet ) if Bergevin could sign him to a 2 year deal  before the end of the season Montreal will have gotten  a surprisingly fit and decent skating scoring machine  from the scrap heap   ...I think a lot of gms are scratching their heads on this one thinking to themselves why didn't I take a cheap flyer on this guy ? unlike Radulov I'm hoping that Kovalchuk isn't seeking ridiculous bucks ...hopefully he signs before all the sharks start surrounding the UFA tank ...it would be good for Romanov next year as well ….who knows ? hopefully  the seamless transition into the locker room and the immediate acceptance that Kovalchuk received from Hab fans will sway his decision ...

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2 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

    Kovy is the feel good part of this year  aside from Suzuki   ( and according to Kovy himself he isn't quite at 100 % yet ) if Bergevin could sign him to a 2 year deal  before the end of the season Montreal will have gotten  a surprisingly fit and decent skating scoring machine  from the scrap heap   ...I think a lot of gms are scratching their heads on this one thinking to themselves why didn't I take a cheap flyer on this guy ? unlike Radulov I'm hoping that Kovalchuk isn't seeking ridiculous bucks ...hopefully he signs before all the sharks start surrounding the UFA tank ...it would be good for Romanov next year as well ….who knows ? hopefully  the seamless transition into the locker room and the immediate acceptance that Kovalchuk received from Hab fans will sway his decision ...

I guess it all really comes down to what he wants.    In LA he was getting paid just over $6m a year for 3 years.   He's older, and obviously less valuable now (even though he's scoring better now than he ever did in LA) so one would think he'd have to expect less than that but how much?

I could see him resigning for $4m for 1 year or $3/year for 2 years.   

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I guess it all really comes down to what he wants.    In LA he was getting paid just over $6m a year for 3 years.   He's older, and obviously less valuable now (even though he's scoring better now than he ever did in LA) so one would think he'd have to expect less than that but how much?

I could see him resigning for $4m for 1 year or $3/year for 2 years.   

He did walk away from that deal though. I really think at this time he just wants to play. I'm pretty sure he's set for life on money. I bet 3 million would do it.

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44 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

He did walk away from that deal though. I really think at this time he just wants to play. I'm pretty sure he's set for life on money. I bet 3 million would do it.

I think that's around the number too .. $3-3.5 for 2 years might snag him and he'd be worth it from what we've seen ...that number will go up if he continues this scoring pace and Montreal goes on a run .

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9 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

I think that's around the number too .. $3-3.5 for 2 years might snag him and he'd be worth it from what we've seen ...that number will go up if he continues this scoring pace and Montreal goes on a run .

All that being said Kovalchuk has made an absolute ton of money but has also paid a ton in taxes and escrow ( & agent's fees ) .You can understand to a degree  why he walked away from the taxes in New Jersey and went to the KHL but in the end not only did he leave US dollars on the table but he lost money when the ruble devaluated …..and ….he's still rich . So he's not hurting for money and signing for $700,000 ( I wonder what the poor people are doing ? ) with Montreal is more an indication that he's not quite done yet and has something to prove . You can see he's enjoying this run with the Habs and is relishing the role of being a significant player again . Lets hope he wants to stay enough to take a discount notwithstanding  Quebec's higher taxes.

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I suspect part of the reason we were able to sign Kovy for so cheap is because he wants to play. But more than that, he wants to play for a cup. I think there was probably a “gentlemen’s agreement” between Kovy and MB that if we aren’t in a playoff spot approaching the deadline, that MB does everything in his power to move him to a contender. Otherwise, why sign for so cheap? We could have paid him more. And he could have asked for more, it’s not like he has a history of underselling himself. But with a contract that small, ANY contender can fit him under their cap. So I think not only would some of us on here be disappointed if we don’t move him for a little something something if we’re not in it by the deadline, but Kovy will be as well. Just my guess.

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9 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Heading into the off week on a high. Nice string of games. The loss to Chicago stunk, but the wins against Calgary and Philadelphia were convincing. Shame we couldn't put together a more stellar effort against Las Vegas, but we did get the win, so... that's something! Carey's been better recently.

I still don't see how Bergevin could consider this a playoff team. I think he has to go into the deadline looking to get picks or prospects for players like Kovalchuk, Thompson, Cousins, and Scandella. Probably not a lot to be had for those guys, but... something is better than nothing.

 

6 hours ago, maas_art said:

I agree that the odds are heavily stacked against us.  I believe Bergevin thinks our odds are better though & I think he will go into the TD doing basically nothing. Maybe adding a piece or two but likely not trading anyone unless its someone insignificant.   I think he probably believes we can (and will) make the playoffs.  I also believe he intends to resign Kovy and Scandella. 

This is the problem. Bergevin doesn't get it, or at least hasn't shown he gets it yet. The odds of our making the playoffs is extremely small and would essentially require us to be the best team in the league over the last 30+ games of the season. Some will look at the standings and say that we're just 6 points out but like I've showed using the mathematics of it, you don't just get to win 3 games and say you're tied. You need to win those 3 games AND hope that multiple teams lose those three games AND hope that those teams lose all the games they have in hand on us.

To catch Florida, we need to win 3 and they have to lose 3 and they have to lose 3 games in hand. So that's not just winning 3 games for us, that's not enough to make it happen. It actually requires 9 games to go our way for us to pull even with Florida. Add another game that needs to go our way for us to pass them outright. And if we want to pass Toronto as well to take the 3rd seed, it would require them to lose 4 games (the 3 we're behind and the game they have in hand). And then factor in Buffalo. So all of a sudden we're talking about maybe 15 games that need to go our way to put us in a playoff position. I think a lot of people are looking at the standings and saying we're 6 points out but that really runs on the assumption that Florida and Toronto and Buffalo are losing all their games, when in fact these are .550 to .600 teams. Sure, we have a few head to heads that can allow us to make up 2 of those games at a time, but it's not enough to make it realistic.

If we're looking at trades, I honestly don't know that dealing Weise or Weal or Thompson or even Scandella is going to bring back much. Mid or low round draft picks. Kovalchuk, if he keeps up his play, could maybe fetch a 2nd rounder at best, but then the question becomes whether we're better off keeping him and signing him for another year. I honestly believe the only way Bergevin is going to improve the team's outlook and chances of ultimately winning a Cup would be to deal real talent, be it Weber or Petry or Tatar or Domi or so on. The role players are going to bring back scraps in trades. We need to look at acquiring 1st rounders or blue chip prospects or young NHLers. There's an argument to be made for looking into these trades now and there's an argument to be made about looking to do something at the draft or next year. But I don't think Bergevin thinks we should throw in the towel now and I don't think he'll want to do it next year either. I think the odds are higher than anything that we keep Petry/Tatar/Weber past the point where they have real trade value and end up with nothing to show for them.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

 

This is the problem. Bergevin doesn't get it, or at least hasn't shown he gets it yet. The odds of our making the playoffs is extremely small and would essentially require us to be the best team in the league over the last 30+ games of the season. Some will look at the standings and say that we're just 6 points out but like I've showed using the mathematics of it, you don't just get to win 3 games and say you're tied. You need to win those 3 games AND hope that multiple teams lose those three games AND hope that those teams lose all the games they have in hand on us.

If we're looking at trades, I honestly don't know that dealing Weise or Weal or Thompson or even Scandella is going to bring back much. Mid or low round draft picks. Kovalchuk, if he keeps up his play, could maybe fetch a 2nd rounder at best, but then the question becomes whether we're better off keeping him and signing him for another year. I honestly believe the only way Bergevin is going to improve the team's outlook and chances of ultimately winning a Cup would be to deal real talent, be it Weber or Petry or Tatar or Domi or so on. The role players are going to bring back scraps in trades. We need to look at acquiring 1st rounders or blue chip prospects or young NHLers. There's an argument to be made for looking into these trades now and there's an argument to be made about looking to do something at the draft or next year. But I don't think Bergevin thinks we should throw in the towel now and I don't think he'll want to do it next year either. I think the odds are higher than anything that we keep Petry/Tatar/Weber past the point where they have real trade value and end up with nothing to show for them.

You are spot on regarding the playoff “hopes” - too many teams in the puzzle need to lose while we win

i can’t see anyone interested in our scraps especially Weise and to do a full youth movement requires a lot more tanking or luck in the draft - I’ll repeat my earlier needs analysis that we need scorers - Petry and Weber put the puck in the net with great shots. Tatar and to an extent Domi too, so unless there is real real value I find that unlikely. Kovy as much as I like him - I’m hoping he gets resigned for 2 years can be dealt at the deadline IMO along with Danualt - again draft Pick / prospect value! 

there are no really attractive free agents in the UFA pool unless someone thinks Pageau could fit. I am hoping Bergevin could package some picks and move up or down in the draft to acquire some scorers and a LD in the first three rounds. With the odd exceptions I get less enthused about rounds 4-7 

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12 minutes ago, claremont said:

You are spot on regarding the playoff “hopes” - too many teams in the puzzle need to lose while we win

i can’t see anyone interested in our scraps especially Weise and to do a full youth movement requires a lot more tanking or luck in the draft - I’ll repeat my earlier needs analysis that we need scorers - Petry and Weber put the puck in the net with great shots. Tatar and to an extent Domi too, so unless there is real real value I find that unlikely. Kovy as much as I like him - I’m hoping he gets resigned for 2 years can be dealt at the deadline IMO along with Danualt - again draft Pick / prospect value! 

there are no really attractive free agents in the UFA pool unless someone thinks Pageau could fit. I am hoping Bergevin could package some picks and move up or down in the draft to acquire some scorers and a LD in the first three rounds. With the odd exceptions I get less enthused about rounds 4-7 

  That's pretty much where I sit as well ….not interested in acquiring a bunch of 4th-7th rounders unless to trade a bunch out for something worthwhile ( rarely happens ) ...I think dealing with cap strapped teams or possibly taking on salary ala Mason and Armia might be more fruitful 

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34 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

We probably won't hear about it but I wouldn't be surprised if Weber and Price quietly ask for a trade. I don't think either one sees a decent chance to win a cup in Montreal and their windows to do so are closing fast.

Wouldn't surprise me either, but, IMO we'd have to get back a younger PP quarterback and an experienced (also younger) starter, until Primeau can take over. I don't think they would be available.

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31 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

Wouldn't surprise me either, but, IMO we'd have to get back a younger PP quarterback and an experienced (also younger) starter, until Primeau can take over. I don't think they would be available.

Well ... for Price, you just need a starter that has a good 2-4 years in him to get Primeau ready for prime time.    For Weber ... if you think you can resign Petry then next year down the right you go Petry, Fleury, Brook/Juulsen.    And you trade Weber for a young LHD PP guy, and roll   LD, Mete, Chiarot ... you then let Chiarot walk when Romanov is ready.

 

For Price then you get at least a 1st and a decent starter minimum.

For Weber you get at least 1st plus the LD ... or depending on the LD, him and a 2nd.

Then ... Kovlachuk, you get a 1st or 2nd, Tatar a 1st or 2nd etc.

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On 2020-01-20 at 10:12 PM, habs1952 said:

We probably won't hear about it but I wouldn't be surprised if Weber and Price quietly ask for a trade. I don't think either one sees a decent chance to win a cup in Montreal and their windows to do so are closing fast.

I don't believe this to be true . Yes players want to win a Stanley Cup but they also have allegiance to their teammates and families . Most  of these guys have children and along with their wives are settled in to Montreal , have houses and school routines for their kids .To disrupt that and be traded at deadline with no guarantees who the team is that wants you or where is a big ask with no guarantees . 

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On 1/20/2020 at 11:23 PM, HabsAlways said:

Well ... for Price, you just need a starter that has a good 2-4 years in him to get Primeau ready for prime time.    For Weber ... if you think you can resign Petry then next year down the right you go Petry, Fleury, Brook/Juulsen.    And you trade Weber for a young LHD PP guy, and roll   LD, Mete, Chiarot ... you then let Chiarot walk when Romanov is ready.

 

For Price then you get at least a 1st and a decent starter minimum.

For Weber you get at least 1st plus the LD ... or depending on the LD, him and a 2nd.

Then ... Kovlachuk, you get a 1st or 2nd, Tatar a 1st or 2nd etc.

Brook is not ready in fact he is so not ready they had to play him as a forward to take pressure off of him! Juulsen may never play in the NHL again so not sure that works...I really like Primeau but we have no idea if he will be any good over the long run, i think he will but who really knows. i would want a hell of a lot more for Price than just a starter! will Romanov ever play in Mtl? once again who knows? Mete i really like but he is super soft in the D zone as he is so small once he gets hemmed in he is toast. it all sounds so easy on paper but it is not. i also think we should make some moves to shake things up and get better but i think it will either be lower level players or one of Price or Webber depending on what is offered, the offer would have to be very very good to make it worth it. I really do not see us getting a first for Tater or Kovy i would keep Tater if all it is would be a second and as for Kovy i would keep him if he agrees to a good price and term he could really be good for JK a real sniper for him to pass to for a year or two at the most. if he does not want to play ball then yeah trade him.

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For fun, here's a list of our main roster with the year they were born.  It shows a few things -  Kovalchuk is 17 years older than Kotkaneimi  for example - but it also shows that while we have a lot of very good players who are 25-26 or under, there's also a lot of those mid to late 20s guys we need to decide about.

Its easy to say "dump Byron" or Thompson - or even guys like Weber or Petry - but as players like Tatar, Scandella, Chiarot, and even Gallagher and Danault approach 30, is it worth considering moving some?   If our main core is Suzuki, JK, Domi, Drouin, Poehling, Primeau etc, will guys like Tatar be past their best before date when these guys are all prime time players?    

Its a tough call. Id feel better if someone I had more confidence in than MB was making the decisions.  
 

Ilya Kovalchuk  1983
Thompson        1984
Weber            1985
Price            1987
Petry            1987
Weise            1988
Byron            1989
----------------- 30s -----------------

Scandella        1990
Tatar            1990
Folin            1991
Chiarot            1991
Weal            1992
Gallagher        1992
Danault            1993
Peca            1993
Armia            1993
Cousins            1993
Lindgren        1993
Kulak            1994
Barber            1994
Hudon            1994
Olofsson        1994
----------------- 25s -----------------
Max Domi        1995
Drouin            1995
Lehkonen        1995
Vejdemo            1996
Leskinen        1997
Mete            1998
Fleury            1998
Poehling        1999
Suzuki            1999
Primeau            1999
Kotkaniemi        2000

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

For fun, here's a list of our main roster with the year they were born.  It shows a few things -  Kovalchuk is 17 years older than Kotkaneimi  for example - but it also shows that while we have a lot of very good players who are 25-26 or under, there's also a lot of those mid to late 20s guys we need to decide about.

Its easy to say "dump Byron" or Thompson - or even guys like Weber or Petry - but as players like Tatar, Scandella, Chiarot, and even Gallagher and Danault approach 30, is it worth considering moving some?   If our main core is Suzuki, JK, Domi, Drouin, Poehling, Primeau etc, will guys like Tatar be past their best before date when these guys are all prime time players?    

Its a tough call. Id feel better if someone I had more confidence in than MB was making the decisions.  
 


 

If we dump our mid to late 20s players we wont be winning a cup until our 25-26 and under players are in their late 20s. So figure in 5 years we may have a shot at a cup. I could understand trying to cash in a couple of older players but I still think you need some experienced players who, for lack of a better term, have been there before.

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3 hours ago, maas_art said:

For fun, here's a list of our main roster with the year they were born.  It shows a few things -  Kovalchuk is 17 years older than Kotkaneimi  for example - but it also shows that while we have a lot of very good players who are 25-26 or under, there's also a lot of those mid to late 20s guys we need to decide about.

Its easy to say "dump Byron" or Thompson - or even guys like Weber or Petry - but as players like Tatar, Scandella, Chiarot, and even Gallagher and Danault approach 30, is it worth considering moving some?   If our main core is Suzuki, JK, Domi, Drouin, Poehling, Primeau etc, will guys like Tatar be past their best before date when these guys are all prime time players?    

Its a tough call. Id feel better if someone I had more confidence in than MB was making the decisions.

And the problem is Bergevin seems pretty into the idea that he can turn the team around and make them a contender quickly rather than rebuilding. What is he called it? A "retooling," was it? I can't seem him dealing many players in their 20s, even if it would be best for the future outlook of the club.

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2 hours ago, habs1952 said:

If we dump our mid to late 20s players we wont be winning a cup until our 25-26 and under players are in their late 20s. So figure in 5 years we may have a shot at a cup. I could understand trying to cash in a couple of older players but I still think you need some experienced players who, for lack of a better term, have been there before.

Im not suggesting dumping all by any means. Someone would have to offer a goldmine for me to consider moving Gallagher and even Tatar is someone id need to be well compensated for to consider it.  My point is that this roster is quite young overall & while i think you can say a guy like Danault may well still be totally useful when JK and Suzuki are in their prime, can we say the same about Byron or Petry or Weber?  Not so sure.  

My big concern is that I dont believe MB understands the effects of age.  He points at rare cases (like Chara or Thompson) where players are elite well into their late 30s and seems to believe thats the norm, which is frustrating & concerning to be sure. 

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2 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Im not suggesting dumping all by any means. Someone would have to offer a goldmine for me to consider moving Gallagher and even Tatar is someone id need to be well compensated for to consider it.  My point is that this roster is quite young overall & while i think you can say a guy like Danault may well still be totally useful when JK and Suzuki are in their prime, can we say the same about Byron or Petry or Weber?  Not so sure.  

My big concern is that I dont believe MB understands the effects of age.  He points at rare cases (like Chara or Thompson) where players are elite well into their late 30s and seems to believe thats the norm, which is frustrating & concerning to be sure. 

Age is much less of a concern to me than contracts, age is only an issue if a player does not do the work or has been too fragile it is much more about cap space when it comes to age at least for me. players these day's have so much more available to keep them in prime condition that it is not crazy to assume they can play later, look at Kovy he was a great talent who has kept himself in great shape and is not slow at all sure he is not what he once was but he is still plenty good. on a case by case basis we can pick and choose where we want to put good players with some experience blended with our good crop of rookies and mid age players it looks more like a solid balance to me.

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5 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Age is much less of a concern to me than contracts, age is only an issue if a player does not do the work or has been too fragile it is much more about cap space when it comes to age at least for me. players these day's have so much more available to keep them in prime condition that it is not crazy to assume they can play later, look at Kovy he was a great talent who has kept himself in great shape and is not slow at all sure he is not what he once was but he is still plenty good. on a case by case basis we can pick and choose where we want to put good players with some experience blended with our good crop of rookies and mid age players it looks more like a solid balance to me.

You're looking at a very small section though.  Kovalchuk was, for a few years, one of the best players in the league - in his prime he's absolutely the best player on this roster.  Weber was one of the top defensmen for a stretch of 4-6 years so its no surprise he's adapted (even though he's lost a step) but is he really a top pairing guy now? What about when he's 36 or 38?     And Byron?  Weise?   The vast majority of NHL players do suffer a pretty large decline somewhere between age 30 and 34.    There are exceptions of course - Petry has had his best seasons ever after the age of 30... but for how long?  - and some guys can still be useful even if they are declining (Kovy at 40-50 points is still useful, he's just never scoring 90 again).  

If we had a GM that i had more faith in, none of this would worry me but we have MB so... 

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5 hours ago, maas_art said:

Ilya Kovalchuk  1983
Thompson        1984
Weber            1985
Price            1987
Petry            1987
Weise            1988
Byron            1989
----------------- 30s -----------------

Scandella        1990
Tatar            1990
Folin            1991
Chiarot            1991
Weal            1992
Gallagher        1992
Danault            1993
Peca            1993
Armia            1993
Cousins            1993
Lindgren        1993
Kulak            1994
Barber            1994
Hudon            1994
Olofsson        1994
----------------- 25s -----------------
Max Domi        1995
Drouin            1995
Lehkonen        1995
Vejdemo            1996
Leskinen        1997
Mete            1998
Fleury            1998
Poehling        1999
Suzuki            1999
Primeau            1999
Kotkaniemi        2000

Assuming that we don’t rattle off 8 straight wins coming out of the break (that would probably be enough to put us right back in the race), I’d like to think that we’ll be selling off a few assets. My guess is that at least two of Petry, Tatar or Kovalchuk will be off that list. I think Thompson sticks around for at least another year, but that’s about it for him. The real puzzle in that age bracket is Byron. I like Byron, and my wife loves the guy, but... I have to say, I think Cousins might have stolen his spot here. I know he gets thrown a lot of shade on here, but I have really enjoy what Cousins has brought to the team. So if there’s a deal to be had, I think it would be a mistake not to trade Byron.

For the next bracket, I see Gallagher and Danault as the core pieces. Armia, Cousins and Chairot we can get a couple more years out of. But ideally, our D should be good enough to bump Chairot down to the bottom pair, and will be replaceable at that point for half the price. Cousins is already bottom six, so the same will apply for him. And Armia, especially if he keeps playing like he is, is going to come to a point where he wants top six minutes, and more importantly, top six pay. So I’d like to think over the next 2-3 seasons, these three will also get swapped out when the timing is right.

I want to have faith that all of this will take care of itself. Sometimes MB makes the right move, and sometimes he doesn’t. I guess we’ll see when the deadline rolls around.

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