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2019-20 State Of The Habs


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Yes, it sure is slim pickings to find elite level ex players that transcend to become successful coaches/GM’s. It’s more common for players that spend their career fighting for playing time. It’s probably because they spend so much time and energy working towards getting better, learning the game, the drills, watching the coaches etc.

Still, it’s not out of the question to find superstar ex players that make good coaches/GM’s, they’re just fewer and further between. Yzerman did a great job in Tampa, and I have no doubt Detroit will be a force within the next 5 years. Sakic seems to be doing alright as president, same can be said for Shanahan. Although I get the impression Shanahan is a little less hands on than Sakic.

Also, I wouldn’t want to exclude any potential future coaches/GM’s, ex players or otherwise for not having a history with Montreal, but I also see no reason to exclude anyone simply for the fact that they do either.

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On 2020-01-17 at 11:27 PM, claremont said:

I am curious what your scouting report reveals 

  Jan 26 Knights 4 Storm 2 including an empty-netter ….. ok getting back to you on the Cam Hillis report ...he looks like a nice prospect ...captain of Guelph , second on the team in points , best plus minus on team , best face-off percentage on either team with over  55 %  ..still averaging 1.4 points per game ...against the Knights he played in all situations 1st PP unit 1st PK unit , is not overly big but not that small either , is a strong skater and hard to knock off the puck and seems to make something happen offensively most shifts , is very good defensively  and scored a beautiful goal mostly on his own ….I liked his composure and he could very well be a Hab some day but I don't see it on the immediate horizon ...never know either ...Evangelista  is a nice undrafted hockey player who has some speed and puck-handling ability but is on the smallish size chart ….he was however engaged physically the whole game and was one of the faster players on the ice  

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6 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

  Jan 26 Knights 4 Storm 2 including an empty-netter ….. ok getting back to you on the Cam Hillis report ...he looks like a nice prospect ...captain of Guelph , second on the team in points , best plus minus on team , best face-off percentage on either team with over  55 %  ..still averaging 1.4 points per game ...against the Knights he played in all situations 1st PP unit 1st PK unit , is not overly big but not that small either , is a strong skater and hard to knock off the puck and seems to make something happen offensively most shifts , is very good defensively  and scored a beautiful goal mostly on his own ….I liked his composure and he could very well be a Hab some day but I don't see it on the immediate horizon ...never know either ...Evangelista  is a nice undrafted hockey player who has some speed and puck-handling ability but is on the smallish size chart ….he was however engaged physically the whole game and was one of the faster players on the ice  

Thank you - Evangelista is rated as being available in the 2nd round where the Habs currently have two picks (unless they are able to trade one and move up or move down) 

Hillis plays a lot with Gogolev - an undrafted late bloomer who has been putting the puck in the net - I agree with your sentiments and cautiously fear he could be Jake Evans like with a slim chance of cracking the roster but he’s at least 2-3 years away 

I would like to see MB be more adventurous in the draft by packaging picks up for value but at this point if we get a top 12 pick quality should be there 

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4 minutes ago, claremont said:

Thank you - Evangelista is rated as being available in the 2nd round where the Habs currently have two picks (unless they are able to trade one and move up or move down) 

Hillis plays a lot with Gogolev - an undrafted late bloomer who has been putting the puck in the net - I agree with your sentiments and cautiously fear he could be Jake Evans like with a slim chance of cracking the roster but he’s at least 2-3 years away 

I would like to see MB be more adventurous in the draft by packaging picks up for value but at this point if we get a top 12 pick quality should be there 

    he will have to start throwing something around in packaged picks that are better than 4ths or 5ths ...I don't see any UFAs on our roster that would bring in anything much better at the deadline with the possible exception of Kovalchuk...

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Going to go back and grade a draft, just to give an idea of how hard it is to find stars... so let's take 2014 for example. It's 5 years ago, and by now most players who are going to be good are already established. I'll rank the players as either a 5- stars (i.e. elite like a Price or Crosby or Hedman), 4- 1st-line quality (like a Pacioretty or Marleau or Holtby), 3- solid NHLers (i.e. a wide range of supporting cast players like a Galchenyuk or a Lehkonen or a Gorges), 2- 4th liners/fringe players (like a Nate Thompson), and 1- flops (like a Louis Leblanc).

1. Ekblad: 4

2. Reinhart: 3

3. Draisaitl: 5

4. Bennett: 3

5. Dal Colle: 1

6. Virtanen: 3

7. Fleury: 3

8. Nylander: 4

9. Ehlers: 3

10. Ritchie: 3

11. Fiala: 3

12. Perlini: 2

13. Vrana: 3

14. Honka: 1

15. Larkin: 4

16. Milano: 3

17. Sanheim: 3

18. Tuch: 3

19. DeAngelo: 3

20. Schmaltz: 3

21. Fabbri: 3

22. Kapanen: 3

23. Bleackley: 1

24. McCann: 2

25. Pastrnak: 5

26. Scherbak: 1

27. Goldobin: 2

28. Ho-Sang: 1

29. Kempe: 3

30. Quenneville: 1

 

In the 2nd round, I'd rank maybe 6 guys as being a 3 and the rest are flops or fringe players thus far. In the 3rd round, I'd rank Point a 2 (top-line player) and Foegele a 3, otherwise all 2's and 1's. After that, there are maybe 5 guys the rest of the draft who are steals and the rest are never-was's or depth players. So for a moment, forget the depth players. Forget even the guys I ranked as 3's because even though it's a good draft when you find a Reinhart or a Kapanen or a Tuch, those guys aren't game-changers in the big picture of things. How many 4's or 5's were in this draft? How many stars or top-line players? I'd count Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Ekblad, Nylander, and Larkin in the 1st round, and maybe a couple of other guys like Sanheim or Reinhart or Tuch or Deangelo get there eventually but they're not there yet. In the later rounds, you have Point in Rd 3, Arvidsson in Rd 4, and maybe Olofsson as a late bloomer in Rd 7 will shake things up one day but he's far from being a top 93 forward in the league right now based on half a rookie season. So as we speak, 5 years in, maybe there are 7 guys who are legit game-changers in the entire draft. Of those, 2 were drafted in the top 3, 3 in the top 8, and 4 in the top 15. The Bruins found a gem in the late 1st with Pastrnak and the Lightning struck gold with Point later on, but for the most part, it was exceedingly rare to find talent outside of the top 10-15 picks. And while the "game-changer" rate was 67% if you picked top 3 and 38% if you picked top 8 but much lower the further down you get.

Do the same thing for other years and look for 4's and 5's. In 2013, I'd count

5's: MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones

4's: Drouin, Monahan, Lindholm, Nurse, Ristolainen, Domi, Mantha, Theodore, Guentzel

... and even some of those might be stretches. A guy like Guentzel is certainly being propped up by who he plays with. A guy like Drouin or Nurse or Mantha or Ristolainen maybe isn't a top-line player on a different team. And once again, all 3 elite players in this draft were top 4 picks. Outside of Guentzel, all the 4's were 1st rounders and most of them were top 10 choices to boot.

Bottom line: if you want to find a star, you better be drafting near the top. If you're not, you have to get lucky to some degree that your guy pans out. The fact that the Habs didn't hit a homerun with Beaulieu or Scherbak or Fucale isn't surprising. That they managed to find Gallagher in the later rounds is huge. The fact that people are putting stock in Caufield or Romanov or Brook walking in and becoming 1st-line players is far from a given. Maybe they'll be one of the rare diamonds in the rough, but the odd are against it. Again, you want a star, you need to tank and be near the top of the draft. While the Habs' draft choices may not all have been my choices at the time, the only one I really remember being upset about when it happened was McCarron. And even then, the guys I would have preferred to take in his place, like Hartman, Klimchuk, or Petan really haven't panned out either, so it's not like we could have done better. The fact is that there really weren't a lot of options to select in McCarron's spot where we were going to get a quality NHLer.

 

 

 

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42 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Going to go back and grade a draft, just to give an idea of how hard it is to find stars... so let's take 2014 for example. It's 5 years ago, and by now most players who are going to be good are already established. I'll rank the players as either a 5- stars (i.e. elite like a Price or Crosby or Hedman), 4- 1st-line quality (like a Pacioretty or Marleau or Holtby), 3- solid NHLers (i.e. a wide range of supporting cast players like a Galchenyuk or a Lehkonen or a Gorges), 2- 4th liners/fringe players (like a Nate Thompson), and 1- flops (like a Louis Leblanc).

1. Ekblad: 4

2. Reinhart: 3

3. Draisaitl: 5

4. Bennett: 3

5. Dal Colle: 1

6. Virtanen: 3

7. Fleury: 3

8. Nylander: 4

9. Ehlers: 3

10. Ritchie: 3

11. Fiala: 3

12. Perlini: 2

13. Vrana: 3

14. Honka: 1

15. Larkin: 4

16. Milano: 3

17. Sanheim: 3

18. Tuch: 3

19. DeAngelo: 3

20. Schmaltz: 3

21. Fabbri: 3

22. Kapanen: 3

23. Bleackley: 1

24. McCann: 2

25. Pastrnak: 5

26. Scherbak: 1

27. Goldobin: 2

28. Ho-Sang: 1

29. Kempe: 3

30. Quenneville: 1

 

In the 2nd round, I'd rank maybe 6 guys as being a 3 and the rest are flops or fringe players thus far. In the 3rd round, I'd rank Point a 2 (top-line player) and Foegele a 3, otherwise all 2's and 1's. After that, there are maybe 5 guys the rest of the draft who are steals and the rest are never-was's or depth players. So for a moment, forget the depth players. Forget even the guys I ranked as 3's because even though it's a good draft when you find a Reinhart or a Kapanen or a Tuch, those guys aren't game-changers in the big picture of things. How many 4's or 5's were in this draft? How many stars or top-line players? I'd count Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Ekblad, Nylander, and Larkin in the 1st round, and maybe a couple of other guys like Sanheim or Reinhart or Tuch or Deangelo get there eventually but they're not there yet. In the later rounds, you have Point in Rd 3, Arvidsson in Rd 4, and maybe Olofsson as a late bloomer in Rd 7 will shake things up one day but he's far from being a top 93 forward in the league right now based on half a rookie season. So as we speak, 5 years in, maybe there are 7 guys who are legit game-changers in the entire draft. Of those, 2 were drafted in the top 3, 3 in the top 8, and 4 in the top 15. The Bruins found a gem in the late 1st with Pastrnak and the Lightning struck gold with Point later on, but for the most part, it was exceedingly rare to find talent outside of the top 10-15 picks. And while the "game-changer" rate was 67% if you picked top 3 and 38% if you picked top 8 but much lower the further down you get.

Do the same thing for other years and look for 4's and 5's. In 2013, I'd count

5's: MacKinnon, Barkov, Jones

4's: Drouin, Monahan, Lindholm, Nurse, Ristolainen, Domi, Mantha, Theodore, Guentzel

... and even some of those might be stretches. A guy like Guentzel is certainly being propped up by who he plays with. A guy like Drouin or Nurse or Mantha or Ristolainen maybe isn't a top-line player on a different team. And once again, all 3 elite players in this draft were top 4 picks. Outside of Guentzel, all the 4's were 1st rounders and most of them were top 10 choices to boot.

Bottom line: if you want to find a star, you better be drafting near the top. If you're not, you have to get lucky to some degree that your guy pans out. The fact that the Habs didn't hit a homerun with Beaulieu or Scherbak or Fucale isn't surprising. That they managed to find Gallagher in the later rounds is huge. The fact that people are putting stock in Caufield or Romanov or Brook walking in and becoming 1st-line players is far from a given. Maybe they'll be one of the rare diamonds in the rough, but the odd are against it. Again, you want a star, you need to tank and be near the top of the draft. While the Habs' draft choices may not all have been my choices at the time, the only one I really remember being upset about when it happened was McCarron. And even then, the guys I would have preferred to take in his place, like Hartman, Klimchuk, or Petan really haven't panned out either, so it's not like we could have done better. The fact is that there really weren't a lot of options to select in McCarron's spot where we were going to get a quality NHLer.

 

 

 

good post …. Montreal currently has 9 First Round picks on the roster and only 3 of their own ...5 Second Round picks and only 1 of their own ...3 Third Round picks and 1 of their own ….4 Fourth Round picks and 1 of their own ….1 Fifth Round pick ( Gallagher ) …..so...total...7 draft picks playing on the team ….it wasn't that long ago in the Markov Plekanec era Montreal had double the homegrown talent playing on the team . This is why selling off a bunch of players for 4th and 5th picks  would work if you can bundle them for something significant ( not likely ) but for the most part they will only serve to keep the farm-hands at a cheaper labour price ala McCarron . I'd be ecstatic  if 2 of the three ( Caulfield , Romanov or Brook ) ended up a regular .

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7 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

 I thought it was interesting in the recent NHL players pole that it was something like 97% of the actual players don't believe in or pay any attention to advanced stats.

i think the only advanced stat I would find important would be how 5 man units play together not individual players. How many shots does one unit generate on net? How any goals do they score? How many shots do they allow on net? How many goals scored on them? How many offensive zone face offs do they generate? How much time do they spend in the offensive zone? Basing the stats on line performance seems, to me, more important than generating stats on a player whose stats will be affected by those on the ice with him. 

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4 minutes ago, claremont said:

Good signs - Drouin and Gallagher skating in practice albeit in non contact jerseys 

No Byron I guess for a while 

That is good news.  I think Drouin is right on schedule. Gallagher is probably even a better sign simply because they seemed baffled at what was wrong with him so hopefully this means his symptoms are subsiding.

I almost feel like Byron should call it a year, rest up and come back in October.  Poor guy.

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3 hours ago, claremont said:

Good signs - Drouin and Gallagher skating in practice albeit in non contact jerseys 

No Byron I guess for a while 

 

3 hours ago, maas_art said:

That is good news.  I think Drouin is right on schedule. Gallagher is probably even a better sign simply because they seemed baffled at what was wrong with him so hopefully this means his symptoms are subsiding.

I almost feel like Byron should call it a year, rest up and come back in October.  Poor guy.

This is good news. Hopefully both are back with the team for Thursday nights game in Buffalo! Me and the wife got tickets, 2nd row up from the sin bins. Bought them back in November, was hoping they’d be back in the lineup by then. Would have been nice to see Byron, that’s my wife’s favourite. 

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3 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Hard to believe we were 11-5-3 when we lost Drouin and Byron to injuries. 

The one bright spot last night was Suzuki ... his play keeps getting better and better.   Hopefully KK can find comfort in his heavier frame and start producing as well, Poehling can mature into the 2way player he's projected to be ... then we're set down the middle for quite a few years.

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2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

The one bright spot last night was Suzuki ... his play keeps getting better and better.   Hopefully KK can find comfort in his heavier frame and start producing as well, Poehling can mature into the 2way player he's projected to be ... then we're set down the middle for quite a few years.

That’s a lot of ifs - I would like another good Centre even if he gets moved to the wing - someone who can light the lamp - Marco Rossi or Cole Perfetti at the top - I doubt Jacob Perrault falls to us in the second round 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

That’s a lot of ifs - I would like another good Centre even if he gets moved to the wing - someone who can light the lamp - Marco Rossi or Cole Perfetti at the top - I doubt Jacob Perrault falls to us in the second round 

Marco Rossi at 5'9, 183lbs has Desharnais written all over him ... hard pass.

Cole Perfetti ... ranked 4th, Jacob Perrault ranked 20th.

If we're picking in the top 5, then yes maybe Perfetti ... though with Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Evans, Olofsson, Vedjemo etc we don't need another C.    

If we're picking between 6th and 20th we should be targetting a defenceman as our depth for D prospects is light.   Drysdale, Baron, Schneider, Guhle, Porier could all be in that range.

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If we could get into the top 5 then I would be ecstatic to see us grab Tim Stutzle, fantastic skater, play maker.  Carried Germany in the juniors by himself.  After watching the juniors and following his play many have ranked him as high as #2.  He would be a great consolation prize for missing Lafrenier(SP)

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1 hour ago, HabsAlways said:

Marco Rossi at 5'9, 183lbs has Desharnais written all over him ... hard pass.

Cole Perfetti ... ranked 4th, Jacob Perrault ranked 20th.

If we're picking in the top 5, then yes maybe Perfetti ... though with Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Evans, Olofsson, Vedjemo etc we don't need another C.    

If we're picking between 6th and 20th we should be targetting a defenceman as our depth for D prospects is light.   Drysdale, Baron, Schneider, Guhle, Porier could all be in that range.

Desharnais comparison is a little unfair - he wasn’t even drafted or ranked by the pundits despite putting up points in the inferior QJHL - he also put up his points when he was 19 and 20

Rossi is doing it in the O at 18 at over 2 points a game - I’d be ecstatic if he fell to us Despite size 

I’m less worried on defense unless Petry is traded and Romanov doesn’t come across. Jayden Struble (strong like bull hopefully not dumb like ox), is developing as is Jordan Harris - both left shots so we do have something in the pipeline 

Teaching defense is a lot easier than teaching someone to light the lamp 

I’ve  seen enough of Evans and Vedjemo to consider them as long shots 

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15 minutes ago, claremont said:

Desharnais comparison is a little unfair - he wasn’t even drafted or ranked by the pundits despite putting up points in the inferior QJHL - he also put up his points when he was 19 and 20

Rossi is doing it in the O at 18 at over 2 points a game - I’d be ecstatic if he fell to us Despite size 

I’m less worried on defense unless Petry is traded and Romanov doesn’t come across. Jayden Struble (strong like bull hopefully not dumb like ox), is developing as is Jordan Harris - both left shots so we do have something in the pipeline 

Teaching defense is a lot easier than teaching someone to light the lamp 

I’ve  seen enough of Evans and Vedjemo to consider them as long shots 

Struble and Harris are unlikely to ever be more than bottom pairing guys.   Norlinder is more likely to make it than those two, and beyond Romanov we have nobody else that could potentially be a top pairing guy.    Thus, we should be focusing on D ... since 3 of our current 6 are all 30+ and we have nobody in the pipes that would be considered good/elite.    Juulsen was looking great, but he has long term health issues.  Fleury is a mid/bottom pairing guy.    Romanov is a question mark.  

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6 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Struble and Harris are unlikely to ever be more than bottom pairing guys.   Norlinder is more likely to make it than those two, and beyond Romanov we have nobody else that could potentially be a top pairing guy.    Thus, we should be focusing on D ... since 3 of our current 6 are all 30+ and we have nobody in the pipes that would be considered good/elite.    Juulsen was looking great, but he has long term health issues.  Fleury is a mid/bottom pairing guy.    Romanov is a question mark.  

I forgot Josh Brook 

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/pages/montreal-canadiens-organizational-depth-chart

Romanov and Norlinder on the left and Brook on the right.    We need another D prospect who's projected to be a top pairing guy so that if any of those other 3 don't work out, we have a 4th guy who might.

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12 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

I forgot Josh Brook 

https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/pages/montreal-canadiens-organizational-depth-chart

Romanov and Norlinder on the left and Brook on the right.    We need another D prospect who's projected to be a top pairing guy so that if any of those other 3 don't work out, we have a 4th guy who might.

Good points and acknowledged but who is our Stamkos-Kucherov, Ovechkin-Backstrom, Matthews-Marner-Tavares, Marchand-Pasternak, Toews-Kane, Crosby-Malkin, McDavid-Draisaitl, MacKinnon-Rantanen, and I’m sure a couple of more tandems I have missed from the elite teams? 
We’ve been without top level scorers for so long that I’m favoring offense if we can get it over defense - Caufield I hope is a step in the right direction and I want KK Drouin Suzuki Domi to break out large 

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25 minutes ago, claremont said:

Good points and acknowledged but who is our Stamkos-Kucherov, Ovechkin-Backstrom, Matthews-Marner-Tavares, Marchand-Pasternak, Toews-Kane, Crosby-Malkin, McDavid-Draisaitl, MacKinnon-Rantanen, and I’m sure a couple of more tandems I have missed from the elite teams? 
We’ve been without top level scorers for so long that I’m favoring offense if we can get it over defense - Caufield I hope is a step in the right direction and I want KK Drouin Suzuki Domi to break out large 

In theory it's Suzuki, Domi, KK, Drouin .... the only way we're getting somebody of the talent you list above is finishing near the bottom and getting Lafreniere this year

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