Playoff Chances

[habsisme]

I was looking at the standings today and realized I've been looking at it all wrong. The Habs have ZERO chance of getting a wild card spot BUT I think we're giving up to eas on claiming that third spot in the division. Toronto and Florida are ahead of us. That's it. Its an outside chance, but looking at it that way made me feel like there was still some hope

https://www.nhl.com/standings/2019/division

[habsisme]

Montreal plays Florida twice and Toronto on the last game of the season. 

Toronto and Florida also play each other once. 

It would take some losing from TO but they are certainly capable of that and I believe have some injuries

 

[H_T_L]

I'm still hopeful the last game of the season has meaning. If not for our playoff implications then maybe a shot at knocking out the Leafs. This Florida trip should be decisive for us.

[habsisme]

Being the ones to knock off the Leafs would be nice

[HabsAlways]

Even with this scenario ... given the FLA/TOR record, schedule etc ... we have about a 1% chance of making it.

Lets presume 95pts is what it will take (the pace TOR is currently on)

Toronto need 17pts in 15 games or roughly 8-6-1

Florida need 22pts in 16 games or roughly 11-5

Habs need 24 pts in 14 games  or roughly 12-2

Which of the above is most realistic? we got 12-2 or the Laughs go 9-7 (for 96pts).   To really clinch it we need BOTH teams to not make 95 pts or get more than 95 ourselves ... 13-1? 14-0?  ... 12-2 isn't going to happen, even if we take the three games against TOR/FLA that leaves us needing 9-2 and TOR only needing 8-5-1 (or 9-6)

 

[maas_art]

The crap part is that 8 or 10 games ago when most of us said "we're out" if we had managed to actually win some of those games we blew leads in we'd probably be very close to 3rd. 

At this point, while possible, it seems pretty unlikely.

I think we can possibly finish above the panthers but not only would we have to go on a ridiculous winning streak, the laffs would have to basically implode.  

[HabsAlways]

This season was over when leading up to the TD we tanked again for 4-5 losses.   Going 6-6-2 in Feb after two 8 game losing streaks earlier in the season put the nail in it.

If instead of 0-16 during those two stretches we had even just played sub-500 ... say 5-11 ... we'd currently be in a playoff spot with 81 pts ... heck even 4-12 would put us at 78 currently and right in the thick of things.

[habsisme]

 

 

 

2

33 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Even with this scenario ... given the FLA/TOR record, schedule etc ... we have about a 1% chance of making it.

Lets presume 95pts is what it will take (the pace TOR is currently on)

Toronto need 17pts in 15 games or roughly 8-6-1

Florida need 22pts in 16 games or roughly 11-5

Habs need 24 pts in 14 games  or roughly 12-2

Which of the above is most realistic? we got 12-2 or the Laughs go 9-7 (for 96pts).   To really clinch it we need BOTH teams to not make 95 pts or get more than 95 ourselves ... 13-1? 14-0?  ... 12-2 isn't going to happen, even if we take the three games against TOR/FLA that leaves us needing 9-2 and TOR only needing 8-5-1 (or 9-6)

 

I agree that its not likely, I just don't think its hopeless and I'd give it more than 1%. The Leafs are definitely capable of a collapse, especially with their current injuries. 

 

29 minutes ago, maas_art said:

The crap part is that 8 or 10 games ago when most of us said "we're out" if we had managed to actually win some of those games we blew leads in we'd probably be very close to 3rd. 

At this point, while possible, it seems pretty unlikely.

I think we can possibly finish above the panthers but not only would we have to go on a ridiculous winning streak, the laffs would have to basically implode.  

 

27 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

This season was over when leading up to the TD we tanked again for 4-5 losses.   Going 6-6-2 in Feb after two 8 game losing streaks earlier in the season put the nail in it.

If instead of 0-16 during those two stretches we had even just played sub-500 ... say 5-11 ... we'd currently be in a playoff spot with 81 pts ... heck even 4-12 would put us at 78 currently and right in the thick of things.

This season has been crazy with blown leads and losing streaks. Its hard to explain 

[HabsAlways]

1 hour ago, habsisme said:

I agree that its not likely, I just don't think its hopeless and I'd give it more than 1%. The Leafs are definitely capable of a collapse, especially with their current injuries. 

 

 

This season has been crazy with blown leads and losing streaks. Its hard to explain 

Its not hard to explain ... the team is mediocre and the results are fairly accurate ... we're a bubble team that will finish middle of the pack and might squeak into the playoffs any given year if all things lineup.   Les Canadiens are not an elite team, they're average at best.   Until or unless major management and roster changes are made this is the reality for the modern day Habs.

[maas_art]

13 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Its not hard to explain ... the team is mediocre and the results are fairly accurate ... we're a bubble team that will finish middle of the pack and might squeak into the playoffs any given year if all things lineup.   Les Canadiens are not an elite team, they're average at best.   Until or unless major management and roster changes are made this is the reality for the modern day Habs.

I think MB is right that Injuries did hurt our chances at the playoffs - but even if we had been 100% healthy all year, we'd still be a middle-of-the-pack team who might make the playoffs as a division 3rd seed but would likely do very little once there. 

[habsisme]

37 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Its not hard to explain ... the team is mediocre and the results are fairly accurate ... we're a bubble team that will finish middle of the pack and might squeak into the playoffs any given year if all things lineup.   Les Canadiens are not an elite team, they're average at best.   Until or unless major management and roster changes are made this is the reality for the modern day Habs.

its hard to explain in the sense of the blown leads, the poor home record, the long losing streaks. We were inconsistent 

 

23 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think MB is right that Injuries did hurt our chances at the playoffs - but even if we had been 100% healthy all year, we'd still be a middle-of-the-pack team who might make the playoffs as a division 3rd seed but would likely do very little once there. 

I definitely dont think we'll do much in the playoffs but once you're in you never know

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I think MB is right that Injuries did hurt our chances at the playoffs - but even if we had been 100% healthy all year, we'd still be a middle-of-the-pack team who might make the playoffs as a division 3rd seed but would likely do very little once there. 

If we were generally healthy and had more things go right, we'd be last year's team - within a point or two of making or missing the playoffs. The bottom line is that that's probably our ceiling, sneaking into the playoffs. If you want to be a legit year-in year-out contender, you need to be in the discussion for being a top 5-6 team in the league, not in the 15-25 range. Who cares if you have a good year and end up 15th? You want to be a top 5 team, you need to get some elite skill, and the only reliable way to do that is to get top 10 draft picks (and even more than that, top 5 picks) and hit on them. Can it be done other ways? Yeah, but it's a crapshoot. Look at the good tams in the past decade or so...

- Was with Ovechkin leading the way

- Pit with Crosby and Malkin

- Chi with Toews and Kane

- LA with Doughty

That's 9 of the last 10 Cups where the best player(s) on the team were top 3 draft choices.

[habs1952]

4 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

This season was over when leading up to the TD we tanked again for 4-5 losses.   Going 6-6-2 in Feb after two 8 game losing streaks earlier in the season put the nail in it.

If instead of 0-16 during those two stretches we had even just played sub-500 ... say 5-11 ... we'd currently be in a playoff spot with 81 pts ... heck even 4-12 would put us at 78 currently and right in the thick of things.

The season was over before it began. You'll catch the coronavirus before the Habs make the playoffs. #hittheroadmarcanddontyoucomebacknomore

[CaptWelly]

12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

If we were generally healthy and had more things go right, we'd be last year's team - within a point or two of making or missing the playoffs. The bottom line is that that's probably our ceiling, sneaking into the playoffs. If you want to be a legit year-in year-out contender, you need to be in the discussion for being a top 5-6 team in the league, not in the 15-25 range. Who cares if you have a good year and end up 15th? You want to be a top 5 team, you need to get some elite skill, and the only reliable way to do that is to get top 10 draft picks (and even more than that, top 5 picks) and hit on them. Can it be done other ways? Yeah, but it's a crapshoot. Look at the good tams in the past decade or so...

- Was with Ovechkin leading the way

- Pit with Crosby and Malkin

- Chi with Toews and Kane

- LA with Doughty

That's 9 of the last 10 Cups where the best player(s) on the team were top 3 draft choices.

and we have had 2 top 3 draft choices also , so that doesn't guarantee anything either.  

[habsisme]

12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

If we were generally healthy and had more things go right, we'd be last year's team - within a point or two of making or missing the playoffs. The bottom line is that that's probably our ceiling, sneaking into the playoffs. If you want to be a legit year-in year-out contender, you need to be in the discussion for being a top 5-6 team in the league, not in the 15-25 range. Who cares if you have a good year and end up 15th? You want to be a top 5 team, you need to get some elite skill, and the only reliable way to do that is to get top 10 draft picks (and even more than that, top 5 picks) and hit on them. Can it be done other ways? Yeah, but it's a crapshoot. Look at the good tams in the past decade or so...

- Was with Ovechkin leading the way

- Pit with Crosby and Malkin

- Chi with Toews and Kane

- LA with Doughty

That's 9 of the last 10 Cups where the best player(s) on the team were top 3 draft choices.

You're right but its worth remembering all the other teams with top 3 draft picks who went nowhere. Montreal had a #3 twice with a guy in the minors to show for it

[maas_art]

13 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

If we were generally healthy and had more things go right, we'd be last year's team - within a point or two of making or missing the playoffs. The bottom line is that that's probably our ceiling, sneaking into the playoffs. If you want to be a legit year-in year-out contender, you need to be in the discussion for being a top 5-6 team in the league, not in the 15-25 range. Who cares if you have a good year and end up 15th? You want to be a top 5 team, you need to get some elite skill, and the only reliable way to do that is to get top 10 draft picks (and even more than that, top 5 picks) and hit on them. Can it be done other ways? Yeah, but it's a crapshoot. Look at the good tams in the past decade or so...

- Was with Ovechkin leading the way

- Pit with Crosby and Malkin

- Chi with Toews and Kane

- LA with Doughty

That's 9 of the last 10 Cups where the best player(s) on the team were top 3 draft choices.

For sure - if we had stayed healthy I think we're a bubble team - in a weak year like this one, we maybe make 3rd seed in the division, in a tough year like last we miss the last WC slot. I think we're in total agreement that that just isnt good enough.

We had many years of top 5 conference finishes & then fizzle in the playoffs - which is bad - but now we're not even make the playoffs (worse) and we dont seem to have a plan to be a contender for the future. Sure we have some really nice young players & prospects but some of our best positional players are well past their prime. Heck our (arguably) 3 most important players are all over 32.

[HabsAlways]

1 hour ago, habsisme said:

You're right but its worth remembering all the other teams with top 3 draft picks who went nowhere. Montreal had a #3 twice with a guy in the minors to show for it

If you're referring to Kotkaniemi ... far too early to call him a bust.   At start of season in October he was still the 3rd youngest regular on a roster.    We're spoiled this year by Suzuki who's a full year older and came through the CHL learning North American hockey.    Kotkaniemi will be fine, I'd argue him and Nick will be our 1a/1b centers for quite awhile. 

Now Poehling on the other hand ... he's 6 months older than Suzuki and came through US College hockey ... and seems to have lost all offensive ability (admittedly I was never high on his offensive upside, but this is quite the regression).

[habs1952]

With all of their high draft choices Edmonton struggled mightily to reach the playoffs until they got themselves a real general manager. 

[campabee82]

10 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

If you're referring to Kotkaniemi ... far too early to call him a bust.   At start of season in October he was still the 3rd youngest regular on a roster.    We're spoiled this year by Suzuki who's a full year older and came through the CHL learning North American hockey.    Kotkaniemi will be fine, I'd argue him and Nick will be our 1a/1b centers for quite awhile. 

Now Poehling on the other hand ... he's 6 months older than Suzuki and came through US College hockey ... and seems to have lost all offensive ability (admittedly I was never high on his offensive upside, but this is quite the regression).

Agree, with both points and will add another. Kotkaniemi when paired with skilled wingers has shown himself to be a very dangerous player. Just look at when he was on a line with Drouin and Armia or Hudon in Laval who saw his totals explode once he was on a line with KK, but when both have been playing 3rd line minutes with barely 4th line players both have struggled. It's a lack of understanding of their abilities from the coaching staff that has caused most of their struggles with the Habs. I am glad excited to see what Yelonen can bring to the Rocket once he is cleared to play.

[jeff33]

To expand on some points being made here:

1. I have read a lot of stuff online, most recently jack todd to use as an example, citing how we could have made the playoffs if we beat detroit and NJ , basically saying how with those 8 pts we are in the playoffs, therefore talent isn't the issue. 

I am sorry if I am offending the optimists on this forum, but this is the be all and end all of everything wrong with things right now. So what, squeaking into 8th has become a victory in our world? And then what, we steal a game or 2 off of tampa or washington or whoever and that's a huge success? Do we raise a banner and have a video montage the next year???? I don't have kids yet, but when I do, if they come to me and say hey dad, great news, I studied half the material, if it all goes right I'll be getting a 50%......am I supposed to applaud this type of mentality? this is loser talk. as they say, you shoot for the moon, you land among the stars. Shooting for the middle is a real short step for falling beneath it, and that is exactly what we have done, and are EXPLICITLY doing. UNACCEPTABLE. for shame

2. as much as the number bear out drafting high, and as much as there are examples of drafting high not panning out like the team thought it would, I say forget all of that. We have the absolute perfect example of where our philosophy should be. We traded pacioretty while he still had value, and we got tatar, suzuki and romanov (correct me if im wrong on romanov) that paid dividends very quickly. this is very self evidently not good enough. we have a great opportunity to trade some vets in very similar deals and get some quick dividends. I adamantly do not think selling off means we suck forever. I think shrewd trades get you upgrades that can start kicking in way quicker than conservative estimates. Its a moot point because I just got told by the guy running things that everything is great as is , but we have proof in the flesh of what I am talking about

[habsisme]

7 minutes ago, jeff33 said:

To expand on some points being made here:

1. I have read a lot of stuff online, most recently jack todd to use as an example, citing how we could have made the playoffs if we beat detroit and NJ , basically saying how with those 8 pts we are in the playoffs, therefore talent isn't the issue. 

I am sorry if I am offending the optimists on this forum, but this is the be all and end all of everything wrong with things right now. So what, squeaking into 8th has become a victory in our world? And then what, we steal a game or 2 off of tampa or washington or whoever and that's a huge success? Do we raise a banner and have a video montage the next year???? I don't have kids yet, but when I do, if they come to me and say hey dad, great news, I studied half the material, if it all goes right I'll be getting a 50%......am I supposed to applaud this type of mentality? this is loser talk. as they say, you shoot for the moon, you land among the stars. Shooting for the middle is a real short step for falling beneath it, and that is exactly what we have done, and are EXPLICITLY doing. UNACCEPTABLE. for shame

2. as much as the number bear out drafting high, and as much as there are examples of drafting high not panning out like the team thought it would, I say forget all of that. We have the absolute perfect example of where our philosophy should be. We traded pacioretty while he still had value, and we got tatar, suzuki and romanov (correct me if im wrong on romanov) that paid dividends very quickly. this is very self evidently not good enough. we have a great opportunity to trade some vets in very similar deals and get some quick dividends. I adamantly do not think selling off means we suck forever. I think shrewd trades get you upgrades that can start kicking in way quicker than conservative estimates. Its a moot point because I just got told by the guy running things that everything is great as is , but we have proof in the flesh of what I am talking about

On point 1, making the playoffs isn't a success but its still better than not. And it provides valuable experience for younger players. 

On point 2, I actually fully agree. But it takes 2 to tango. Next year we should have a bunch of UFAs if things are as bad as this year, I want to trade as many of them as possible to get young A level prospects

[jeff33]

3 minutes ago, habsisme said:

On point 1, making the playoffs isn't a success but its still better than not. And it provides valuable experience for younger players. 

On point 2, I actually fully agree. But it takes 2 to tango. Next year we should have a bunch of UFAs if things are as bad as this year, I want to trade as many of them as possible to get young A level prospects

would I have preferred we make the playoffs, absolutely. I agree, just the experience is great. Its the philosophical approach though. we are playing tampa, who has a juggernaut, and still made 2 significant trades and a d signing to stack up even more. Based on our philosophy, a playoff berth is incredible and proof positive that theres no way we would sacrifice draft picks or anything to add... we dont even make it and its somehow justification to maintain status quo. like i said, loser mentality

[HabsAlways]

So ... with that loss tonight, Habs have to go 12-1 to get 95 pts ... I mean I gave up about 5-6 games before the trade deadline ... is anyone still actually holding out hope?

[CaptWelly]

10 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

So ... with that loss tonight, Habs have to go 12-1 to get 95 pts ... I mean I gave up about 5-6 games before the trade deadline ... is anyone still actually holding out hope?

There are those whom play the lottery everyday with worse odds and it actually cost them money. So if anyone at anytime holds out hope that's purely their choice and nothing for anyone else to scoff at. Or no one should ever play the lottery because you know the odds are against it. 

[HabsAlways]

1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

There are those whom play the lottery everyday with worse odds and it actually cost them money. So if anyone at anytime holds out hope that's purely their choice and nothing for anyone else to scoff at. Or no one should ever play the lottery because you know the odds are against it. 

There's a huge difference between playing the lottery ... and a sports team who is failing to qualify for the post season.    When you buy a lottery ticket you know full well that it's purely luck.     Holding out hope that a team playing bad and poorly constructed will somehow miraculously win 12 out of 14 games (what they needed when this post was made) is ignoring the facts.