UFA free agency

[claremont]

12 minutes ago, habsisme said:

on a one year deal, i would have like Simmonds. He would have been a good 4th line player. Right now we got:

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson

Tatar - Kotkaniemi/Danault - Gallagher

Byron/Lehkonen - Kotkaniemi/Danault - Armia

Byron/Lehkonen - Poehling/Evans - Weal

I can't say I love the 4th line. I'm pretty happy with the top 3 lines though. 

Romanov - Weber (I really hope Romanov is given every opportunity to get top line minutes)

Edmundson - Petry 

Kulak - Chariot 

And we have Mete and a bunch of young guy that could fill in

All in all we're better this year on paper. Could use another forward and maybe move another one out

Chiarot is a LHD - he has never regularly played the right side so I’m not sure that is a legitimate pairing. Romanov has played RHD so if one of Chiarot or Kulak is not moved, I could see Alex on the RHD side with one of those or Edmundson with Mete as a spare while Juulsen, Brook and Fleury develop pending waivers risks. 
l wonder about the message MB is sending regarding our fourth line RW as Simmonds is a RW. They must feel one of Byron/Lehkonen can’t play that opposite wing or Weal isn’t strong enough on that wing or Evans RW/C or Poehling C/LW can aspire to roles 

[maas_art]

41 minutes ago, habsisme said:

on a one year deal, i would have like Simmonds. He would have been a good 4th line player. Right now we got:

Drouin - Suzuki - Anderson

Tatar - Kotkaniemi/Danault - Gallagher

Byron/Lehkonen - Kotkaniemi/Danault - Armia

Byron/Lehkonen - Poehling/Evans - Weal

I can't say I love the 4th line. I'm pretty happy with the top 3 lines though. 

I think they will start:

Drouin -Suzuki-Anderson
Tatar - Danault -Gallagher (I would rather have JK here)
Lehkonen - JK - Armia
Poehling - Evans - Byron (or Byron - Poehling - Evans if they think RP is ready).    I 

I think Weal is your 13th forward.   Id still like another player added.   We do have some prospects that could make the jump (Ylonen ist he closest) but honestly none really inspire much.  

There's still a chance MB signs a guy like Dadanov or Hoffman to play on that 3rd RW slot. That would make that a true exploitation line and really give other teams fits on who to match up against who.  You then have Armia dropping to the 4th line which suddenly looks a lot stronger with  Byron - Poehling/Evans - Armia   Of course that means one of Poehling or Evans is going down or going into the pressbox. 

[arpem-can]

34 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think they will start:

Drouin -Suzuki-Anderson
Tatar - Danault -Gallagher (I would rather have JK here)
Lehkonen - JK - Armia
Poehling - Evans - Byron (or Byron - Poehling - Evans if they think RP is ready).    I 

I think Weal is your 13th forward.   Id still like another player added.   We do have some prospects that could make the jump (Ylonen ist he closest) but honestly none really inspire much.  

There's still a chance MB signs a guy like Dadanov or Hoffman to play on that 3rd RW slot. That would make that a true exploitation line and really give other teams fits on who to match up against who.  You then have Armia dropping to the 4th line which suddenly looks a lot stronger with  Byron - Poehling/Evans - Armia   Of course that means one of Poehling or Evans is going down or going into the pressbox. 

  I think if it's doable that's where Bergevin should go ...Simmonds was a cheaper quick fix but Hoffman or Dadanov  will probably cost around $6 mill  and term ...If Toronto can sign Simmonds for $1.5 and Brodie for $5.0 for 4 years and end up  $2 mill over the cap   (and apparently not be worried) we can do the same  to get the right player ....

[BigTed3]

Cousins to Nashville, so that has been avoided.

Leafs signing of Brodie means they're over cap and need to dump at least one guy. Rumors about Nylander, Kerfott, Johnsson and others. Means they're also likely out on Pietrangelo, who is believed to have narrowed it down to Vegas or St. Louis.

[claremont]

17 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Cousins to Nashville, so that has been avoided.

Leafs signing of Brodie means they're over cap and need to dump at least one guy. Rumors about Nylander, Kerfott, Johnsson and others. Means they're also likely out on Pietrangelo, who is believed to have narrowed it down to Vegas or St. Louis.

It’s a dangerous game when you’re over cap - one would think you were trigger happy and had to make a Brodie type deal. Dubas has to have lost some leveraging or believe there is some team out there that will take Kerfoot, Nylander, or Jonsson at a fair price or he’s desperate for change and doesn’t care about his throwaway. In fact not only being $1.1m over cap he’s really about $4m over cap having to resign Mikhayev and Dermott with 21 players on his roster. Enough about the Laffs - just hope Bergevin isn’t stupid enough to go over cap without a contingency in place 

[BornToBeAHab]

how much will Duclair cost ?

[BigTed3]

Krug to Stl for 7 years, 6.5 AAV. That puts them out on Pietrangelo and over the cap as well, without having signed Dunn yet.

[BigTed3]

TB needing to shed cap. Stl over. Tor over. Getting to be a market where if you sit back, you might get a good player for cheap by virtue of having some cap space. And as I said, an offersheet right now might go through... what would Stl do if someone offered Vince Dunn 5M a year? What would TB do if someone offered Sergachev 6M a year? They'd have to move a player or two at a huge loss, as TB is trying to do right now with Johnson on waivers.

[BigTed3]

A couple of other notes... Boston actually withdrew its offer to Krug today. Lebrun thinks it's because they have something else going on and wondered about Pietrangelo, but other sources have said they may be one of the front-runners on Hall too.

As for the Leafs, they gave Brodie a full NMC for year one and Muzzin also has a NMC. So if they are forced to protect those two (and Rielly) in the ED, it means they would be forced to expose Sandin, Liljegren, and Dermott. Doesn't say much for their evaluation of their younger guys.

[claremont]

So who is left and reasonable fit and who if acquired would likely become one of our 7 protected forwards for the Kraken draft assuming minimum 2 year contract? - Dadonov, Mantha, at RW , Hoffman, Athanasiou Duclair at LW - Any strong desires?

The only way we get Hall now would be to trade Tatar likely for draft choices 

one would think 6 of our protected list would be Drouin, Anderson, KK, Gallagher (resign) Danault (resign), Lehkonen - not resigning Tatar?  exposing Byron and maybe not resigning Armia before the deadline. (Protecting Suzuki not required) 
the worst case is likely Kovalchuk For 1 year or did he play himself out with his qualifying round performance with Washington? 
 

[claremont]

9 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

A couple of other notes... Boston actually withdrew its offer to Krug today. Lebrun thinks it's because they have something else going on and wondered about Pietrangelo, but other sources have said they may be one of the front-runners on Hall too.

As for the Leafs, they gave Brodie a full NMC for year one and Muzzin also has a NMC. So if they are forced to protect those two (and Rielly) in the ED, it means they would be forced to expose Sandin, Liljegren, and Dermott. Doesn't say much for their evaluation of their younger guys.

Sandin and lilygren will be like Suzuki - too young - Holl and Dermott are likely exposed but I love the overcap situations for their loss of leverage 

[habsisme]

5 minutes ago, claremont said:

So who is left and reasonable fit and who if acquired would likely become one of our 7 protected forwards for the Kraken draft assuming minimum 2 year contract? - Dadonov, Mantha, at RW , Hoffman, Athanasiou Duclair at LW - Any strong desires?

The only way we get Hall now would be to trade Tatar likely for draft choices 

one would think 6 of our protected list would be Drouin, Anderson, KK, Gallagher (resign) Danault (resign), Lehkonen - not resigning Tatar?  exposing Byron and maybe not resigning Armia before the deadline. (Protecting Suzuki not required) 
the worst case is likely Kovalchuk For 1 year or did he play himself out with his qualifying round performance with Washington? 
 

At this point, I feel like our right side is set on offence and defence (except maybe our 4th line). We have good players all along our left side too, but I can see an improvement. What I mean is I don't think you get Dadonov and then play Gallagher or Anderson on the 3rd line. 

Duclair is a good player but I worry about what he does to the room. 

Getting Hall and moving Tatar or Byron would be AMAZING

[claremont]

15 minutes ago, habsisme said:

At this point, I feel like our right side is set on offence and defence (except maybe our 4th line). We have good players all along our left side too, but I can see an improvement. What I mean is I don't think you get Dadonov and then play Gallagher or Anderson on the 3rd line. 

Duclair is a good player but I worry about what he does to the room. 

Getting Hall and moving Tatar or Byron would be AMAZING

Fair point - also RW Caufield could be ready for a support role year after next which is depth for Gallagher or Armia depending on negotiations and performance value next year. Bringing in another RW could impede that path. 

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

Sandin and lilygren will be like Suzuki - too young - Holl and Dermott are likely exposed but I love the overcap situations for their loss of leverage 

The only players exempt for being too young are 1st or 2nd year professionals. Has nothing to do with when you joined the NHL, only when you signed your first contract, even if you ended up in the AHL. So Liljegren signed in 2017 and Sandin in 2018. Both will have more than 2 years pro experience by the end of next season, so they're both ED eligible and need to be protected. With the current NMC's, Toronto is required to protect Muzzin and Brodie unless the player waives their rights. I can't imagine they don't protect Rielly. So unless they use the alternative model and forego protecting all their forwards, they won't be able to protect their young D.

For us, Suzuki is exempt because he'll only have completed two years of pro by the end of next season. JK will have completed 3, so he's not exempt. Evans will only have played in the NHL for 2 but he's been a pro longer than 2 so he needs protection. Poehling only signed at the end of 2018-19 but didn't play enough games to make that year count as a first year (didn't play more than 9 games), so he'll only be at two years of pro by the end of the coming season and also doesn't need protection. Primeau exempt for same reason. Leafs don't have that exemption for those D men.

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Krug to Stl for 7 years, 6.5 AAV. That puts them out on Pietrangelo and over the cap as well, without having signed Dunn yet.

Interesting that they replaced their #1 RHD with a LHD.  Krug is probably better than Dunn right now (although partners play a role) but for how long?  

[claremont]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

The only players exempt for being too young are 1st or 2nd year professionals. Has nothing to do with when you joined the NHL, only when you signed your first contract, even if you ended up in the AHL. So Liljegren signed in 2017 and Sandin in 2018. Both will have more than 2 years pro experience by the end of next season, so they're both ED eligible and need to be protected. With the current NMC's, Toronto is required to protect Muzzin and Brodie unless the player waives their rights. I can't imagine they don't protect Rielly. So unless they use the alternative model and forego protecting all their forwards, they won't be able to protect their young D.

For us, Suzuki is exempt because he'll only have completed two years of pro by the end of next season. JK will have completed 3, so he's not exempt. Evans will only have played in the NHL for 2 but he's been a pro longer than 2 so he needs protection. Poehling only signed at the end of 2018-19 but didn't play enough games to make that year count as a first year (didn't play more than 9 games), so he'll only be at two years of pro by the end of the coming season and also doesn't need protection. Primeau exempt for same reason. Leafs don't have that exemption for those D men.

Ted - I read conflicting reports - has nothing to do with pro contracts but rather 3 years of NHL experience.hence my abbreviated comment of too young. Neither Sandin or Liljegren will have completed 3 years of NHL experience- has nothing to do with their AHL pro experience. Similarly Jake Evans will also be exempt having not accrued 3 years of NHL experience and games at end of next year. Please review your sources. 

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, habsisme said:

At this point, I feel like our right side is set on offence and defence (except maybe our 4th line). We have good players all along our left side too, but I can see an improvement. What I mean is I don't think you get Dadonov and then play Gallagher or Anderson on the 3rd line. 

Duclair is a good player but I worry about what he does to the room. 

Getting Hall and moving Tatar or Byron would be AMAZING

The way I look at it:
LW:  Drouin / Tatar / Lekhonen / Byron / Poehling

C: Suzuki / Kotkaniemi / Danault / Evans (Poehling)

RW: Gallagher / Anderson / Armia / (Evans, Byron, Lehks)

The guys in Parenthesis can play either position. At all 3 positions we're a little light (could use more depth) but also have nice skills.  

At LW, unless you get Hall (or trade for someone like Huberdeau who is purportedly available) there's no point in really bringing someone in. 
At C it wouldnt hurt to have a depth guy (even if you trade for someone in the minors) unless you think Poehling is ready too. 
At RW, with the addition of Anderson, it seems unnecessary for an upgrade. Sure if Winnepeg wanted Gallagher as part of a Laine deal, id listen but for the most part an upgrade seems unlikely. If you could get someone like Hoffman or Dadanov - or even Kovalchuk - cheap, and you felt he could play the 3rd line, then Im ok with bumping Armia down to the 4th. It would be a heck of a nicely balanced lineup. 

 

[Windoe]

6 hours ago, maas_art said:

The way I look at it:
LW:  Drouin / Tatar / Lekhonen / Byron / Poehling

C: Suzuki / Kotkaniemi / Danault / Evans (Poehling)

RW: Gallagher / Anderson / Armia / (Evans, Byron, Lehks)

The guys in Parenthesis can play either position. At all 3 positions we're a little light (could use more depth) but also have nice skills.  

At LW, unless you get Hall (or trade for someone like Huberdeau who is purportedly available) there's no point in really bringing someone in. 
At C it wouldnt hurt to have a depth guy (even if you trade for someone in the minors) unless you think Poehling is ready too. 
At RW, with the addition of Anderson, it seems unnecessary for an upgrade. Sure if Winnepeg wanted Gallagher as part of a Laine deal, id listen but for the most part an upgrade seems unlikely. If you could get someone like Hoffman or Dadanov - or even Kovalchuk - cheap, and you felt he could play the 3rd line, then Im ok with bumping Armia down to the 4th. It would be a heck of a nicely balanced lineup. 

 

I agree with all of that, and just want to add a thought to consider:

We seem to have a lack of elite talent on offence, but a good balance of decent talent in our top 9.  Whereas most of our opponents will have more elite talent on a line or two, and then a big drop off in the rest of their top 9.

So, especially in the playoffs, we tend to put our best shut down line against the opposition's top elite line hoping to neutralize their advantage as much as possible.  That then allows our second and third balanced lines compete against their "dropoff" in talent lines, and in that difference there is where we try to gain the advantage.  

Their elite line vs. our shutdown line: They have the edge but its minimized
Their second best line about equal to our second best line: We are more or less equal
Their third line not as good as our third line: We can have the edge

And then our D is likely comparable to theirs or slightly better, with our G usually being significantly better.

I'm not sure this is a formula for success, but it does seem to be where we are at currently.

[BigTed3]

8 hours ago, claremont said:

Ted - I read conflicting reports - has nothing to do with pro contracts but rather 3 years of NHL experience.hence my abbreviated comment of too young. Neither Sandin or Liljegren will have completed 3 years of NHL experience- has nothing to do with their AHL pro experience. Similarly Jake Evans will also be exempt having not accrued 3 years of NHL experience and games at end of next year. Please review your sources. 

Here's the link to the NHL's own press release on this:

https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

In it, they state

* All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.

(as per the definition of this, it's anyone with an NHL contract, whether they play in the NHL or not; this is how it was defined for the LV draft).

CapFriendly is a bit more clear when they write their explanation of it:

* First & Second Year Pros

All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft. You can also check out their mock ED simulator, where they list Poehling, Ylonen, Suzuki, etc. as exempt but put JK, Evans, etc. in the category of needing protection:

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft/seattle

I think the discrepancy seems to be this with respect to Toronto... there is some kind of a loophole in the above rule, whereby if the player signed their ELC before the age of 20 but didn't play in the NHL those years, they don't count towards the 2 years of pro experience. So in the end, Sandin and Liljegren don't seem to be needing protection, albeit not sure why that loophole exists as it wasn't clearly stated this way in the LV draft. Has nothing to do with 2 vs 3 years, the rule is still clearly 2 years pro experience but with this exception for early ELC signings...

[claremont]

13 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Here's the link to the NHL's own press release on this:

https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-2021-nhl-expansion-draft-rules-same-as-vegas-golden-knights-followed/c-302586918

In it, they state

* All first- and second-year NHL players, and all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward protection limits.

(as per the definition of this, it's anyone with an NHL contract, whether they play in the NHL or not; this is how it was defined for the LV draft).

CapFriendly is a bit more clear when they write their explanation of it:

* First & Second Year Pros

All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft. You can also check out their mock ED simulator, where they list Poehling, Ylonen, Suzuki, etc. as exempt but put JK, Evans, etc. in the category of needing protection:

https://www.capfriendly.com/expansion-draft/seattle

Thank you - I’m quite surprised at Evans requiring protection- if cap friendly is the defacto source, then your statement of Leafs Sandin and Liljegren is totally incorrect as they are exempt within that sites mechanism chart much like Suzuki et al

Evans will have to have played 40 games however to be eligible, which may be unlikely. I also note Jake Evans did not sign an entry level contract which is probably why his two AHL pro seasons count with last years NHL debut as a third season. That would make him pass the eligibility requirements except for the 40 games threshold

 

[electron58]

23 hours ago, claremont said:

A scary part right now is that barring a roster promotion for Evans or Poehling, Weal is our 4th line centre. I’d love to dump Weal but that is a lot of youngsters down the middle in KK, Suzuki with one of those, so that makes Danault so much more valuable. I’m hoping some teams are desperate to shed cap and would be interested in cheaper replacements like Mete, Kulak, Ouellet for even draft choices to compliment their bigger name acquisition. If Tatar cannot be moved, then Bergevin is basically bargain hunting now, as I don’t see him moving Byron or Armia. 
So far IMO MB has improved the backup goaltending, provided more depth on LD (jury deliberations on improvement tbd), strengthened the right wing side, made us bigger, and not mortgaged the future by trading away top draft picks. The draft was just so so for me.  Not horrible but I am hoping for a little more. 

I think we will see Jake Evans before Weal. He'll be our 4rth line center. He's an older youngster, who's paid his dues, and has done everything Montreal has asked. He's responsible and should do well.  The injuries that he has sustained in the past, were the result of cheap shots.  Could happen to anyone, doesn't make them injury prone. If Bergevin does move Danault, it better be for a major upgrade anywhere but goal, &, he better have another center lined up to replace him, because yes, Danault is so much more valuable now for Montreal. (Think he doesn't know that?) So, again, too many moving pieces have to happen. & for me, the draft was so so as well.

[campabee82]

I am extremely disappointed in the way MB has sat on his ass for the 1st day of FA! We need an upgraded scoring threat someone like Hall, Hoffman, Dadanov, Smith or Laine/Ehlers (through trade) and what do we get a middle six winger with an injury history so long MB could wipe his ass with it for a month. Great job MB! All our rivals are getting better and we are treading water again. MB has no balls to roll the dice and go for it. He needs to be replaced before this team has any hopes of contending.

[arpem-can]

1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

I am extremely disappointed in the way MB has sat on his ass for the 1st day of FA! We need an upgraded scoring threat someone like Hall, Hoffman, Dadanov, Smith or Laine/Ehlers (through trade) and what do we get a middle six winger with an injury history so long MB could wipe his ass with it for a month. Great job MB! All our rivals are getting better and we are treading water again. MB has no balls to roll the dice and go for it. He needs to be replaced before this team has any hopes of contending.

   I don't know if I'd exactly characterize it that way. There are still some bigger names out there that haven't been signed by all of the other clubs as well and some have a lot of cap room . Pietrangelo , Hall , Hoffman , Dadanov , Smith etc. are weighing their offers and options . Montreal and Quebec's taxes are another reason management has to overpay or players aren't willing to come . There are lots of factors involved .

[electron58]

10 minutes ago, arpem-can said:

   I don't know if I'd exactly characterize it that way. There are still some bigger names out there that haven't been signed by all of the other clubs as well and some have a lot of cap room . Pietrangelo , Hall , Hoffman , Dadanov , Smith etc. are weighing their offers and options . Montreal and Quebec's taxes are another reason management has to overpay or players aren't willing to come . There are lots of factors involved .

There are a lot of variables out there, and as much as I am NOT a fan of Bergevin, I'm not convinced that he is finished. I'm sure he is weighing all his options, and who knows, maybe he IS trying to think 2 or 3 moves ahead.  Still players available, so we will have to be patient and hope. I am more optimistic this year, than the several previous years.

[BigTed3]

Craig Smith to Boston 3 years 3.1 AAV.

And more surprisingly, Johnson clears waivers, so Tampa hasn't fixed their cap issues yet. Still room to offersheet Sergachev or Cirelli for another team and force Tampa's hands. Still room to take Johnson from Tampa but demand they throw in a 1st rounder to make the deal happen.