2020-21 State Of The Habs

[H_T_L]

15 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

"To be" means is hasn't happened yet. My post says it has. 

Thanks for clearing that up.

[electron58]

On 10/16/2020 at 1:18 PM, jennifer_rocket said:

What do people think the chances of Danault being extended are?

If he's unhappy with his potential role, I guess it's less likely he would extend here, but... I could still see an extension happening. I'm not sure it makes sense to lock him in for another 4-5 years, though.

You know, now that I give this more thought, I would get rid of Drouin and sign Danault for 4 or 5 years, if it's a reasonable deal. I would rather have Danault on left wing, than Drouin. Maybe Bergy waits & sees how it plays out, but my money is on Danault staying. Plus, with Danault's skillset, he can fill in at center, or just stay at center and a lesser player (Poehling) plays the left wing. Danault definitely gives you more options, and is a heart & soul kinda player, as well.

[maas_art]

48 minutes ago, electron58 said:

You know, now that I give this more thought, I would get rid of Drouin and sign Danault for 4 or 5 years, if it's a reasonable deal. I would rather have Danault on left wing, than Drouin. Maybe Bergy waits & sees how it plays out, but my money is on Danault staying. Plus, with Danault's skillset, he can fill in at center, or just stay at center and a lesser player (Poehling) plays the left wing. Danault definitely gives you more options, and is a heart & soul kinda player, as well.

I think he will do just that (wait & see). We also have some players in the minors (Poehling, Vejdemo, Ylonen) who may be ready for bigger roles.  There's no rush to sign Danault.  Sure, if he wants a cheap contract that is tradable,but otherewise, the prudent thing would be to see what the team looks like this year. 

I also agree that Danault gives you more options than Drouin (he's a more complete player) however, Drouin - if he ever actually puts it altogether, is a unique player on this roster. He's easily one of the 2 or 3 most skilled players.  The problem is that every year we wait for something to happen & except for short stretches, it never really does. 

[Habberwacky]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I think he will do just that (wait & see). We also have some players in the minors (Poehling, Vejdemo, Ylonen) who may be ready for bigger roles.  There's no rush to sign Danault.  Sure, if he wants a cheap contract that is tradable,but otherewise, the prudent thing would be to see what the team looks like this year. 

I also agree that Danault gives you more options than Drouin (he's a more complete player) however, Drouin - if he ever actually puts it altogether, is a unique player on this roster. He's easily one of the 2 or 3 most skilled players.  The problem is that every year we wait for something to happen & except for short stretches, it never really does. 

I thought Drouin had turned it around and then he broke his arm-wrist and didn't seem to have it going in the playoffs. It is definitely too early to decide on him unless somebody makes an offer we can't refuse. With Domi gone it may help motivate him to get his game going. Domi's floating through the season clearly didn't help his cause.

[arpem-can]

2 hours ago, Habberwacky said:

I thought Drouin had turned it around and then he broke his arm-wrist and didn't seem to have it going in the playoffs. It is definitely too early to decide on him unless somebody makes an offer we can't refuse. With Domi gone it may help motivate him to get his game going. Domi's floating through the season clearly didn't help his cause.

I agree ...the team as it stands is much better and Drouin could find some chemistry with either Anderson or Toffoli ...I'm for letting the season progress for awhile before deciding anything and he still has 3 affordable years if anything did develop trade -wise ...just because Montreal signs Danault ( to me a must ) doesn't mean the team necessarily gets rid of Drouin ..they almost have enough cap to sign everybody back but I doubt that will happen . This team will surprise this year .

[claremont]

1 hour ago, Habberwacky said:

I thought Drouin had turned it around and then he broke his arm-wrist and didn't seem to have it going in the playoffs. It is definitely too early to decide on him unless somebody makes an offer we can't refuse. With Domi gone it may help motivate him to get his game going. Domi's floating through the season clearly didn't help his cause.

Agree that it’s way too early to give up on Drouin until most of next season plays out. Bergevin and Julien give a lot of rope on a player before he hangs himself such as the Galchenyuk experience and if Drouin doesn’t perform next year, it’s adios muchacho trade or buyout. Drouin could push Tatar off the roster UFA next year or vice-versa. 
On Danualt resigning, it depends on the above rivalry, and the performance of Suzuki and KK’s contract bridge request. I’m not sure there’s cap value in being able pay that much for Danualt as a 2nd line / 3rd line Centre. 
I do like the dynamics of players performance playing for next years contracts Danualt, Tatar, Armia, or to stay - Drouin, Poehling, Evans, Byron. With flat cap, its a sure thing that we will start to see youth in the lineup like Caufield Ylonen, Brook, Fleury. Paying older vets like Spezza, Thornton or Simmonds is insane IMO as you either have that leadership on your roster or you don’t. Side note - I’m guessing Tavares or Muzzin, Brodie or Reilly with their years of veteran experience are incapable of leadership thus the team needs this “presence” 

[CaptWelly]

14 hours ago, arpem-can said:

I agree ...the team as it stands is much better and Drouin could find some chemistry with either Anderson or Toffoli ...I'm for letting the season progress for awhile before deciding anything and he still has 3 affordable years if anything did develop trade -wise ...just because Montreal signs Danault ( to me a must ) doesn't mean the team necessarily gets rid of Drouin ..they almost have enough cap to sign everybody back but I doubt that will happen . This team will surprise this year .

I agree it's too soon to give up on Drouin. He actually had a good year with Domi and he started last season looking good. He also seemed to start to have chemistry with Suzuki in the playoffs. He shouldn't have as much pressure because of the additions also. I think we need to sign Danault also. He is more than just a shutdown guy or his line mates wouldn't end up scoring the points they are , all while playing against the other teams top players. Along with getting almost no PP time. There is no guarantee that JK (can JK stay healthy ?) and Suzuki will be able to do that "yet'. I also think this team has a good chance to surprise this year. With the flat cap there also is a chance that he takes a discount $. Drouin and Danault both are also depth. We hope the kids will continue to get better and the new guys work out. 

[maas_art]

9 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

I agree it's too soon to give up on Drouin. He actually had a good year with Domi and he started last season looking good. He also seemed to start to have chemistry with Suzuki in the playoffs. He shouldn't have as much pressure because of the additions also. I think we need to sign Danault also. He is more than just a shutdown guy or his line mates wouldn't end up scoring the points they are , all while playing against the other teams top players. Along with getting almost no PP time. There is no guarantee that JK (can JK stay healthy ?) and Suzuki will be able to do that "yet'. I also think this team has a good chance to surprise this year. With the flat cap there also is a chance that he takes a discount $. Drouin and Danault both are also depth. We hope the kids will continue to get better and the new guys work out. 

Bolded part is key for me. IMHO he'll never be "the guy" but could easily be "a guy."   At $5.5m if he can consistently put up 55 points or so, i can live with it (even though his skillset seems to indicate he should be able to score much more than that)

[electron58]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Bolded part is key for me. IMHO he'll never be "the guy" but could easily be "a guy."   At $5.5m if he can consistently put up 55 points or so, i can live with it (even though his skillset seems to indicate he should be able to score much more than that)

Jonathon Drouin 25yo. NHL career stats    349    67    142    209    -51  -  never put up more than 53 points in a season  76 PPP

Philip Danault     27yo. NHL career stats    339    50    125    175    +35 -  never put up more than 53 points in a season   12 PPP

Drouin was supposed to be a point producer. Danault, not so much. Their career stats are pretty close. Danault is a + player & wins more than 50% of his faceoffs. Danault, leaves it all on the ice.  He never takes a shift off, and is an integral part of the penalty kill. He can be on the ice in all situations & you never have to worry about him, He picks up for his line mates. His achievements are well earned. He even got some votes towards the Selke trophy. Take away the powerplay points, and Drouin has 113 points and Danault has 163 points. Even though Drouin is the much more skilled player, Danault, through sheer hard work, is the more valuable player. So if I'm Bergevin, I'm trading Drouin and upping Danault. Probably 5 years @ $5.M/year. Unless....Drouin explodes for a 100 point season.  Then we revisit, but somehow, I really don't think that is going to happen.

 

 

[arpem-can]

33 minutes ago, electron58 said:

Probably 5 years @ $5.M/year.

  I would sign him in a heartbeat at $5 mill and term .I think he gets more but Bergevin's thinking might be that this season is still in doubt as to when it starts and revenues will continue in the red . Just because they are talking Jan 1st ( before it was Dec 1st)  doesn't mean Bettman has a crystal ball .It could be well into the spring depending on the pandemic for all we know . 

[electron58]

1 hour ago, arpem-can said:

  I would sign him in a heartbeat at $5 mill and term .I think he gets more but Bergevin's thinking might be that this season is still in doubt as to when it starts and revenues will continue in the red . Just because they are talking Jan 1st ( before it was Dec 1st)  doesn't mean Bettman has a crystal ball .It could be well into the spring depending on the pandemic for all we know . 

That's the truth.  Could be well into the spring/summer of next year, when a viable vaccine is available. I don't even want to go anywhere, especially where extra large crowds are concerned. We were big on rock concerts, hockey games & amusement parks when this pandemic put an end to things. Couldn't wait to get my flu shot, and now they are all out. Anyway, I think Danault is worth $5M to stay in Montreal.  Otherwise, he's a huge trade chip. 

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, electron58 said:

Jonathon Drouin 25yo. NHL career stats    349    67    142    209    -51  -  never put up more than 53 points in a season  76 PPP

Philip Danault     27yo. NHL career stats    339    50    125    175    +35 -  never put up more than 53 points in a season   12 PPP

Drouin was supposed to be a point producer. Danault, not so much. Their career stats are pretty close. Danault is a + player & wins more than 50% of his faceoffs. Danault, leaves it all on the ice.  He never takes a shift off, and is an integral part of the penalty kill. He can be on the ice in all situations & you never have to worry about him, He picks up for his line mates. His achievements are well earned. He even got some votes towards the Selke trophy. Take away the powerplay points, and Drouin has 113 points and Danault has 163 points. Even though Drouin is the much more skilled player, Danault, through sheer hard work, is the more valuable player. So if I'm Bergevin, I'm trading Drouin and upping Danault. Probably 5 years @ $5.M/year. Unless....Drouin explodes for a 100 point season.  Then we revisit, but somehow, I really don't think that is going to happen.

There's no question Danault is a more complete player.  I think people are still holding out hope that Drouin can be more than a 50-60 point player but every year that seems less likely.  

The problem that Danault has  - on this team - is redundancy.  Danault is an elite checking centre, but a lower than average offensive centre.  Both Suzuki and JK are projecting as better than average in both categories and they are much younger and (for now) cheaper.  I think he's just running out of space.  Even at 3rd line C, there's a chance Poehling, Vejdemo or Evans could take on that role. Drouin, for all his faults, is probably one of our two best LW.  Toffoli could be moved there (Tatar, Toffoli, Lehks) but I think that JD does bring an element that we dont reallty have elsewhere in teh lineup.   Danault is still probably our most versatile (and trusted) centre right now - but for how long? 

I dont see Danault signing for $5. 

 

1 hour ago, arpem-can said:

  I would sign him in a heartbeat at $5 mill and term .I think he gets more but Bergevin's thinking might be that this season is still in doubt as to when it starts and revenues will continue in the red . Just because they are talking Jan 1st ( before it was Dec 1st)  doesn't mean Bettman has a crystal ball .It could be well into the spring depending on the pandemic for all we know . 

Yeah. I think he's going to want somethign like $6m+    $5m id absolutely do because i think you could trade that contract easily if you wanted/needed to.

 

[arpem-can]

2 minutes ago, electron58 said:

That's the truth.  Could be well into the spring/summer of next year, when a viable vaccine is available. I don't even want to go anywhere, especially where extra large crowds are concerned. We were big on rock concerts, hockey games & amusement parks when this pandemic put an end to things. Couldn't wait to get my flu shot, and now they are all out. Anyway, I think Danault is worth $5M to stay in Montreal.  Otherwise, he's a huge trade chip. 

  Even at that a vaccine would not sufficiently protect people significantly until at least year after it's recommended if that . The whole logistics of vaccinating 300 + million people in the States is a huge fence to leap .This will put the NHL and other sports  without any spectators again . If they want to continue the "bubble" mentality it will come with major decreases in revenues .  Players are accepting salaries at less than face value now just to have a contract in hand and I assume this will continue as long as the virus continues .Tyler Toffoli for example made more money per year in his last contract . Two years ago he could  have asked substantially more on the open market .They have the bucks in Montreal to do this . Other teams are facing major losses for at least another year flat cap or no flat cap. 

[CaptWelly]

43 minutes ago, maas_art said:

There's no question Danault is a more complete player.  I think people are still holding out hope that Drouin can be more than a 50-60 point player but every year that seems less likely.  

The problem that Danault has  - on this team - is redundancy.  Danault is an elite checking centre, but a lower than average offensive centre.  Both Suzuki and JK are projecting as better than average in both categories and they are much younger and (for now) cheaper.  I think he's just running out of space.  Even at 3rd line C, there's a chance Poehling, Vejdemo or Evans could take on that role. Drouin, for all his faults, is probably one of our two best LW.  Toffoli could be moved there (Tatar, Toffoli, Lehks) but I think that JD does bring an element that we dont reallty have elsewhere in teh lineup.   Danault is still probably our most versatile (and trusted) centre right now - but for how long? 

I dont see Danault signing for $5. 

 

Yeah. I think he's going to want somethign like $6m+    $5m id absolutely do because i think you could trade that contract easily if you wanted/needed to.

 

I think there is a real possibility he would sign for around 5 a year. As much as there may be a demand for a complete player like Danault. I don't think the market is going to be paying that much anymore for a while due to covid and lessened revenues. If we can sign him for around 5 maybe 5.25.5.5 I still think we can have Danault and Drouin both. I do think like other sports Hockey will try some limited amount of fans and be able to sell the boxes also. That alone won't offset loses though. 

[maas_art]

14 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

I think there is a real possibility he would sign for around 5 a year. As much as there may be a demand for a complete player like Danault. I don't think the market is going to be paying that much anymore for a while due to covid and lessened revenues. If we can sign him for around 5 maybe 5.25.5.5 I still think we can have Danault and Drouin both. I do think like other sports Hockey will try some limited amount of fans and be able to sell the boxes also. That alone won't offset loses though. 

I mean I hope you're right.  The luxury of Danault as your 3rd line centre would be fantastic - but I somehow dont see it happening, but, I didnt think Petry would sign for what he did either so... 

[CaptWelly]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I mean I hope you're right.  The luxury of Danault as your 3rd line centre would be fantastic - but I somehow dont see it happening, but, I didnt think Petry would sign for what he did either so... 

I also think people put to much emphases on "3rd" line center. I think in todays game and especially with Jullein and others. That the old 1st./2nd/3rd/ designations don't mean nearly as much as they used to. The game is fast and you need to be able to roll as many lines as you can. I really believe it's going to come down to a game to game who we are playing and what line is going that night. I have no problem with close to equal time between lines. The top players always get extra time either on the PP or on the PK. At this time Danault doesn't get much pp time as it is. I could definitely see some nights he gets more time than Suzuki or JK and other nights less. I actually don't think it's a given that Suzuki and JK will automatically get more ice time unless we get a lot of PP time. We'll see how it plays out. Having 3 solid centers all responsible would be great. I think balance in todays game is more important than ever. It may be even more so if the schedule is condensed with a lot of back to backs and 4 to 5 games a week to squeeze in as much as possible. I also think that is where having Allen as a back up is going to help also.

[claremont]

58 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

I also think people put to much emphases on "3rd" line center. I think in todays game and especially with Jullein and others. That the old 1st./2nd/3rd/ designations don't mean nearly as much as they used to. The game is fast and you need to be able to roll as many lines as you can. I really believe it's going to come down to a game to game who we are playing and what line is going that night. I have no problem with close to equal time between lines. The top players always get extra time either on the PP or on the PK. At this time Danault doesn't get much pp time as it is. I could definitely see some nights he gets more time than Suzuki or JK and other nights less. I actually don't think it's a given that Suzuki and JK will automatically get more ice time unless we get a lot of PP time. We'll see how it plays out. Having 3 solid centers all responsible would be great. I think balance in todays game is more important than ever. It may be even more so if the schedule is condensed with a lot of back to backs and 4 to 5 games a week to squeeze in as much as possible. I also think that is where having Allen as a back up is going to help also.

I believe you’re correct on these points but might add having a balanced depth relative to your cap is important. If you’re payroll heavy on your first or 2nd lines, and have to roll out some rookies or cheap geezers on your 3rd and 4th lines, that dangerous plan should catch up to you 

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

I also think people put to much emphases on "3rd" line center. I think in todays game and especially with Jullein and others. That the old 1st./2nd/3rd/ designations don't mean nearly as much as they used to. The game is fast and you need to be able to roll as many lines as you can. I really believe it's going to come down to a game to game who we are playing and what line is going that night. I have no problem with close to equal time between lines. The top players always get extra time either on the PP or on the PK. At this time Danault doesn't get much pp time as it is. I could definitely see some nights he gets more time than Suzuki or JK and other nights less. I actually don't think it's a given that Suzuki and JK will automatically get more ice time unless we get a lot of PP time. We'll see how it plays out. Having 3 solid centers all responsible would be great. I think balance in todays game is more important than ever. It may be even more so if the schedule is condensed with a lot of back to backs and 4 to 5 games a week to squeeze in as much as possible. I also think that is where having Allen as a back up is going to help also.

 

8 minutes ago, claremont said:

I believe you’re correct on these points but might add having a balanced depth relative to your cap is important. If you’re payroll heavy on your first or 2nd lines, and have to roll out some rookies or cheap geezers on your 3rd and 4th lines, that dangerous plan should catch up to you 

Im with Claremont here.  Im not saying that Danault is a 'third line centre' in the vain of Pittburgh or Edmonton. You'd fully expect the ice time to be more balanced (heck we just added toffoli who probably sits behind Gallagher & Anderson assuming we dont play him LW) but ideally you want JK and Suzuki progressing to the point where they are getting more ice time as the 2 most skilled centres. Thats all.   And the bigger question (aside from money) about Danault would be: Will he be ok if/when that happens. 

[CANADIENS27]

Have our defensive needs been addressed yet?  

 

 

[jennifer_rocket]

58 minutes ago, CANADIENS27 said:

Have our defensive needs been addressed yet?  

I mean, I guess the intention is to hope that Edmundson is going to help (not hinder). Or that Romanov is going to be able to step-in to an NHL role no problem. IMO, it's still a major area of concern. I like a lot of the work Bergevin has done this off-season, but, yeah... I think the D is still weak.

[HabsAlways]

On 10/15/2020 at 9:18 AM, electron58 said:

Well, if Bergevin would not have qualified him, and then subsequently failed to trade him, some other team may have given him a shot. Now, we will not know for some time. How long does Montreal now retain his rights for? Should have just let him go UFA if they weren't going to give him a fair chance. And really, I think now for sure (more than before) there is no place for Hudon in our lineup. (except for Drouin) this team looks really good & ready to compete.

No by not qualifying him they did in fact let him become an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) and 30 other teams also decided he wasn't even worth the league minimum.    So, right back to what I said ... if he was NHL caliber, he'd be in the NHL.    

[HabsAlways]

16 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

I also think people put to much emphases on "3rd" line center. I think in todays game and especially with Jullein and others. That the old 1st./2nd/3rd/ designations don't mean nearly as much as they used to.

Tell that to teams who have actual 1st line centers ...  McDavid, Tavares, Bergeron, Eichel, Barkov, Sheifle just to name some ... I've said for years, if Danault is the guy getting most of your minutes as Center then your Center depth is severely lacking.   Nothing against Danault, but ideally he should be the guy getting PK time and 3rd in even strength minutes.     His tenure with Habs has seen him get both PK time and top minutes at C.

[electron58]

58 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

No by not qualifying him they did in fact let him become an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) and 30 other teams also decided he wasn't even worth the league minimum.    So, right back to what I said ... if he was NHL caliber, he'd be in the NHL.    

Canadiens submit qualifying offers to five players

The offers were made to forwards Max Domi and Charles Hudon, as well as defensemen Noah Juulsen, Victor Mete and Xavier Ouellet

by Montreal Canadiens @CanadiensMTL / News release

 October 3, 2020

[claremont]

52 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Tell that to teams who have actual 1st line centers ...  McDavid, Tavares, Bergeron, Eichel, Barkov, Sheifle just to name some ... I've said for years, if Danault is the guy getting most of your minutes as Center then your Center depth is severely lacking.   Nothing against Danault, but ideally he should be the guy getting PK time and 3rd in even strength minutes.     His tenure with Habs has seen him get both PK time and top minutes at C.

If you look at Danualt's development history, he has never been a scorer in junior or his pro seasons - he tops out at 15 goals, and is a setup man and shutdown centre. For even Phillip to suggest he is worthy of a #1 line position and that he's not happy with 3rd line status, is ego chest-thumping, posturing for a new contract etc. We like loyal soldiers and the french media will likely be all over MB if he lets Danualt go to UFA. MB has had to overpay in the Quebec tax market for Josh Anderson, and Joel Edmundson (IMO), just to bring them here, and has put a lot of risk in their TBD performance. if Danualt wants north of $5M and a term longer than 4 years, I suspect he and his agent are over valuing his results. 

[arpem-can]

38 minutes ago, claremont said:

If you look at Danualt's development history, he has never been a scorer in junior or his pro seasons - he tops out at 15 goals, and is a setup man and shutdown centre. For even Phillip to suggest he is worthy of a #1 line position and that he's not happy with 3rd line status, is ego chest-thumping, posturing for a new contract etc. We like loyal soldiers and the french media will likely be all over MB if he lets Danualt go to UFA. MB has had to overpay in the Quebec tax market for Josh Anderson, and Joel Edmundson (IMO), just to bring them here, and has put a lot of risk in their TBD performance. if Danualt wants north of $5M and a term longer than 4 years, I suspect he and his agent are over valuing his results. 

I don't think there's a chance in hell Bergevin lets Danault go to free agency .. Danault will sign a reasonable contract to stay in Quebec and solidify his future . I think he'll be a bit like Gallagher who will sit on it ( for 1 day ) and contemplate what it'll be like to turn his life completely upside down by going to another team and multiple unknowns . Same thing happened for Petry .If push comes to shove Bergevin at the very least will make a trade and not lose a valuable  asset but I don't think that will happen . @ $5 mill + a year and term our modern day version of Guy Carbonneau won't care about his " role " when he's financially secure for the rest of his life .