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Habs Magic Number 2021 - Countdown to the Playoffs


Manatee-X
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Yep, 15 it is.


We haven't been doing ourselves any favours, but the teams around us haven't been doing themselves very many either.  Vancouver is still technically the team to beat for bonus points, at only 1 loss back (but with 4 fewer games played).

Right now we're looking pretty safe to make it, and believe it or not we're actually closer to catching Winnipeg for 3rd than Calgary is to catching us for 4th.  Still though, a lot can happen in 8 games.  Not the least of which is we could finally start to build a bit of momentum ahead of our first round series.

Wishful thinking?  Time will tell...

 

  GP GR PTS NL
Toronto Maple Leafs 50 6 69 15.5
Edmonton Oilers 48 8 60 18
Winnipeg Jets 49 7 57 20.5
Montréal Canadiens 48 8 51 22.5
         
Vancouver Canucks 44 12 41 23.5
Calgary Flames 49 7 47 25.5
Ottawa Senators 50 6 42 29
         
         
      MN 15
      Pace 2.04
      MN EPD Game 54
      MN Home Ice 21
      MN Division 31
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Despite the fact the Canucks are mathematically ahead of the Flames in terms of maximum possible points left on the board, their schedule is tougher with many back-to-backs, tougher opponents still jockeying for position in the next two weeks, and a lot of road games, never mind the effects of COVID on their roster and players' physical condition. It would be tough for the Canucks to make a move on us. Even if they go 3-1 against Calgary and 4-4 against Tor/Edm/Wpg, we'd only have to win two more games to stay ahead of them in the playoff race in all likelihood. It's possible, but it's implausible.

Calgary has closed on us enough that it's still a race there however. Calgary has 7 games left, but the last 4 are against a Vancouver team that will have just gone through 7 games in 12 nights against the best three teams in the division, in addition to having a game against Edmonton in the middle of the 4 games against Calgary. The Flames, meanwhile, have just 3 games in the next 13 days prior to getting to Vancouver. One of those 3 games will be against an Ottawa team playing two nights in a row on the road in different cities. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Flames take at least 4 if not 5 of those last games against Ott/Van. Let's also say they split the two against Edm/Wpg and finish with a record of 6-1. It's certainly possible they fall apart too, but it's really not farfetched to see a scenario where Calgary finishes 6-1 is what I'm saying. If they do that, the odds that they finish with more regulation wins than us is high, so we'd need stay ahead of them in points to hold our playoff spot. 6-1 would put the Flames at 59 points, meaning the Habs would need 60 to get in. That requires our finishing 4-3-1.

Our May 6 game at Toronto will be the 2nd half of a B2B for us in two different cities on the road, while Toronto will be fresh, so to me, that has a high chance of being a write-off loss. Tomorrow, we'll be in the 2nd half of a B2B against a rested Ottawa team too. So to me, these are the games we need to win (or have one be an OT/SO loss)...

- Wpg tonight

- Ott May 5

- one of the May 3 or May 8 games against Tor

- both May 10 and May 12 against Edm

Obviously, the requirements could drop if Calgary doesn't perform, but the Habs likely don't want to finish their season and then have to watch Vancouver come up with wins against the Flames to get in the back door. The Habs need to take care of their own business and frankly it starts tonight with a high-stakes game. Lose this one and then you're in need of better results against Toronto or in the second halves of B2B's. The numbers right now appear favorable for us, but we've played badly in the past two weeks and now the schedule looks less favorable. It's brewing to be a perfect storm that could keep us out of the playoffs if we don't turn our own performance around.

 

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16 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Despite the fact the Canucks are mathematically ahead of the Flames in terms of maximum possible points left on the board, their schedule is tougher with many back-to-backs, tougher opponents still jockeying for position in the next two weeks, and a lot of road games, never mind the effects of COVID on their roster and players' physical condition. It would be tough for the Canucks to make a move on us. Even if they go 3-1 against Calgary and 4-4 against Tor/Edm/Wpg, we'd only have to win two more games to stay ahead of them in the playoff race in all likelihood. It's possible, but it's implausible.

Calgary has closed on us enough that it's still a race there however. Calgary has 7 games left, but the last 4 are against a Vancouver team that will have just gone through 7 games in 12 nights against the best three teams in the division, in addition to having a game against Edmonton in the middle of the 4 games against Calgary. The Flames, meanwhile, have just 3 games in the next 13 days prior to getting to Vancouver. One of those 3 games will be against an Ottawa team playing two nights in a row on the road in different cities. So I wouldn't be surprised if the Flames take at least 4 if not 5 of those last games against Ott/Van. Let's also say they split the two against Edm/Wpg and finish with a record of 6-1. It's certainly possible they fall apart too, but it's really not farfetched to see a scenario where Calgary finishes 6-1 is what I'm saying. If they do that, the odds that they finish with more regulation wins than us is high, so we'd need stay ahead of them in points to hold our playoff spot. 6-1 would put the Flames at 59 points, meaning the Habs would need 60 to get in. That requires our finishing 4-3-1.

Our May 6 game at Toronto will be the 2nd half of a B2B for us in two different cities on the road, while Toronto will be fresh, so to me, that has a high chance of being a write-off loss. Tomorrow, we'll be in the 2nd half of a B2B against a rested Ottawa team too. So to me, these are the games we need to win (or have one be an OT/SO loss)...

- Wpg tonight

- Ott May 5

- one of the May 3 or May 8 games against Tor

- both May 10 and May 12 against Edm

Obviously, the requirements could drop if Calgary doesn't perform, but the Habs likely don't want to finish their season and then have to watch Vancouver come up with wins against the Flames to get in the back door. The Habs need to take care of their own business and frankly it starts tonight with a high-stakes game. Lose this one and then you're in need of better results against Toronto or in the second halves of B2B's. The numbers right now appear favorable for us, but we've played badly in the past two weeks and now the schedule looks less favorable. It's brewing to be a perfect storm that could keep us out of the playoffs if we don't turn our own performance around.

 

It's getting  crazy.......🤪

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7 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Hoping 7 if the Oilers win, but if the Flames win we have a shot at catching the Oil for 2nd and getting home ice for the 1st round.

It will still be 9. We got the max of 4 points tonight because technically Vancouver has all those games in hand on both us and the Flames. The Nucks are still the bubble team.

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- Calgary has 47 points with 6 to go, so maximum of 59 points.

- Vancouver has 41 points with 11 to go, so maximum of 63 points.

- Habs currently sitting at 55 points, also with 6 to go.

- Regulation wins (1st tiebreak) are currently 20 for Mt, 19 for Cgy, 13 for Van. So unlikely Van would pass us in that category (even though possible).

 

- So Habs need 5 points to eliminate the Flames and they would need 8 points to at least tie Vancouver. If Mtl wins those 8 points with 4 regulation wins, it would be almost impossible for Vancouver to beat us in the tie-break. So go 4-2 and we should be in, and that's with little to no help.

- The earliest the Habs can clinch would be Thursday, if we win 5 points in our next 3 games AND Vancouver gets no more than 2 points in their next 3 against Edmonton.

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5 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

- Calgary has 47 points with 6 to go, so maximum of 59 points.

- Vancouver has 41 points with 11 to go, so maximum of 63 points.

- Habs currently sitting at 55 points, also with 6 to go.

- Regulation wins (1st tiebreak) are currently 20 for Mt, 19 for Cgy, 13 for Van. So unlikely Van would pass us in that category (even though possible).

 

- So Habs need 5 points to eliminate the Flames and they would need 8 points to at least tie Vancouver. If Mtl wins those 8 points with 4 regulation wins, it would be almost impossible for Vancouver to beat us in the tie-break. So go 4-2 and we should be in, and that's with little to no help.

- The earliest the Habs can clinch would be Thursday, if we win 5 points in our next 3 games AND Vancouver gets no more than 2 points in their next 3 against Edmonton.

I understand why you are calculating the elimination based on , Calgary and Vancouver winning every game they play. That is unrealistic though and the last 4 games of the season will only be played IF either Calgary or Vancouver still have a shot at passing us. Also because we hold every tie breaker vs Calgary except tier 5 (season series points) we likely win any tie vs them. Calgary needs to win their next game in order for the last 4 games to count for them, but at the same time they need Montreal to not win any of their next 3 cause that would put them 10 points behind with 5 games remaining and not holding any of the top 4 tiers of the Tie-Breakers. Vancouver is 14 points behind with 11 games remaining. They need to win 7 just to catch us and make the 4 games at the end vs Calgary count. That will be a tall order with their next 7 games being against the Leafs, Oilers and Jets. So in order to have a shot they need to win 7 and lose 1 in O.T. without Montreal winning a game the rest of the season. That leaves 3 games unaccounted for, 2 wins for Montreal and any loss in the next 7 games and they no longer have a reason to play the last 4 games either. So to recap, we need 1 win coupled with a flames loss and 2 wins coupled with 1 Vanvouver loss to make the last 4 games irrelevant. I prefer to look at it that way as opposed to having to make up 8 points in 6 games lol.

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30 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I understand why you are calculating the elimination based on , Calgary and Vancouver winning every game they play. That is unrealistic though and the last 4 games of the season will only be played IF either Calgary or Vancouver still have a shot at passing us. Also because we hold every tie breaker vs Calgary except tier 5 (season series points) we likely win any tie vs them. Calgary needs to win their next game in order for the last 4 games to count for them, but at the same time they need Montreal to not win any of their next 3 cause that would put them 10 points behind with 5 games remaining and not holding any of the top 4 tiers of the Tie-Breakers. Vancouver is 14 points behind with 11 games remaining. They need to win 7 just to catch us and make the 4 games at the end vs Calgary count. That will be a tall order with their next 7 games being against the Leafs, Oilers and Jets. So in order to have a shot they need to win 7 and lose 1 in O.T. without Montreal winning a game the rest of the season. That leaves 3 games unaccounted for, 2 wins for Montreal and any loss in the next 7 games and they no longer have a reason to play the last 4 games either. So to recap, we need 1 win coupled with a flames loss and 2 wins coupled with 1 Vanvouver loss to make the last 4 games irrelevant. I prefer to look at it that way as opposed to having to make up 8 points in 6 games lol.

I think you missed the point of my explanation... I'm giving the list of what Montreal would need to do to control its own destiny, not saying we need to do this or else we miss the playoffs.

For the tie-breaker, the first tiebreak this year is regulation wins. Mtl sits at 20 and Cgy at 19. So if we only get one more win and Cgy were to go 5-1, chances are that the would generate enough regulation wins to pass us in the tie-break. Hence why we need 2 wins to guarantee Cgy can only tie us in points PLUS another point (= 5 total) to guarantee Cgy couldn't catch us.

For Vancouver, if we get only one more win, Vancouver still has a shot at winning the tie-break over us, even though it would be pretty unlikely (given our 20 regulation wins vs. their 13 so far). They would need to go 8-3 to tie us or 8-2-1 to pass us.

If you want to look at things another way, let's say the Habs go 2-4 to close out. Calgary would need to 6-0 to tie us in points (in which case they'd win the tie-break in all likelihood, but it would be forcing them to be perfect. Anything less than 6-0 and they'd be out). And Vancouver would need to go 9-2 to tie us. Both fairly unlikely. Right now, Moneypuck has us at a 95.3% chance of making the playoffs (75% in 4th place, 20% in 3rd place). We're sitting pretty again after last night's results. 2-4 the rest of the way likely gets it done.

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28 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I think you missed the point of my explanation... I'm giving the list of what Montreal would need to do to control its own destiny, not saying we need to do this or else we miss the playoffs.

For the tie-breaker, the first tiebreak this year is regulation wins. Mtl sits at 20 and Cgy at 19. So if we only get one more win and Cgy were to go 5-1, chances are that the would generate enough regulation wins to pass us in the tie-break. Hence why we need 2 wins to guarantee Cgy can only tie us in points PLUS another point (= 5 total) to guarantee Cgy couldn't catch us.

For Vancouver, if we get only one more win, Vancouver still has a shot at winning the tie-break over us, even though it would be pretty unlikely (given our 20 regulation wins vs. their 13 so far). They would need to go 8-3 to tie us or 8-2-1 to pass us.

If you want to look at things another way, let's say the Habs go 2-4 to close out. Calgary would need to 6-0 to tie us in points (in which case they'd win the tie-break in all likelihood, but it would be forcing them to be perfect. Anything less than 6-0 and they'd be out). And Vancouver would need to go 9-2 to tie us. Both fairly unlikely. Right now, Moneypuck has us at a 95.3% chance of making the playoffs (75% in 4th place, 20% in 3rd place). We're sitting pretty again after last night's results. 2-4 the rest of the way likely gets it done.

No I got it lol. I was just looking at how we can make those last 4 games irrelevant for an easier path. This would also allow us to rest some players in our last 2 or 3 games as well. 

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1 hour ago, Habberwacky said:

Not mentioned in these calculations of the head to head games if Calgary and Vancouver still are in the hunt. They are more likely to eliminate each other during those games as that will mean Vancouver has started to win again. 2-3-1 works for me Go Habs!!

That's the ideal situation,,,, that they eliminate each other. Our magic number is strictly a mathematical calculation that reflects the worse case scenario such as us losing all remaining games and one of those other teams going pretty much undefeated the rest of the way. We are in a healthy position right now to clinch well before those head to head matches between those two. The sooner we get it done the sooner we can either rest some bodies or better prep the depth to step in if needed.

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2 hours ago, Habberwacky said:

Not mentioned in these calculations of the head to head games if Calgary and Vancouver still are in the hunt. They are more likely to eliminate each other during those games as that will mean Vancouver has started to win again. 2-3-1 works for me Go Habs!!

 

8 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

That's the ideal situation,,,, that they eliminate each other. Our magic number is strictly a mathematical calculation that reflects the worse case scenario such as us losing all remaining games and one of those other teams going pretty much undefeated the rest of the way. We are in a healthy position right now to clinch well before those head to head matches between those two. The sooner we get it done the sooner we can either rest some bodies or better prep the depth to step in if needed.

Would be much more comforting to just get it done by ourselves so as to not finish our season and then have things be out of our own control as to how those remaining Cgy-Van games are split. As I posted, I think a record of 2-4 likely gets us in. According to sportsclubstats, the odds of us making the playoffs for each record would be

0-6: 45%

1-5: 80%

2-4: 97%

3-3 or better: 100%

If we win the game against Ottawa and one of the two against Edmonton, are odds are good, even if we fall apart all three games against Toronto (albeit if we lose all three to Toronto, we're playing the Leafs if we get in and that doesn't build much confidence).

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

 

Would be much more comforting to just get it done by ourselves so as to not finish our season and then have things be out of our own control as to how those remaining Cgy-Van games are split. As I posted, I think a record of 2-4 likely gets us in. According to sportsclubstats, the odds of us making the playoffs for each record would be

0-6: 45%

1-5: 80%

2-4: 97%

3-3 or better: 100%

If we win the game against Ottawa and one of the two against Edmonton, are odds are good, even if we fall apart all three games against Toronto (albeit if we lose all three to Toronto, we're playing the Leafs if we get in and that doesn't build much confidence).

One thing that works in our favor down this stretch is the refs are soon going to start to only call the blatant penalties (hopefully lol). The ones that take scoring chances away or are dangerous in nature and are letting some if the clutching and grabbing go a bit more.

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16 hours ago, campabee82 said:

One thing that works in our favor down this stretch is the refs are soon going to start to only call the blatant penalties (hopefully lol). The ones that take scoring chances away or are dangerous in nature and are letting some if the clutching and grabbing go a bit more.

Helps our D but doesn't help our offence where most of our players are skill guys and don't fight or play dirty.

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