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Habs Magic Number 2021 - Countdown to the Playoffs


Manatee-X
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8 hours ago, Manatee-X said:

Couldn't have put it better myself :)

Let's finish this off with a win tonight.  And hey, on the bright side, at least we won't have to face Ottawa in the post-season :wacko:

 

HAHAHAHA didn't happen. 

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Playoffs around the corner. According to TVA as well as TSN' Frank Seravalli, teams have been told to be ready to start the playoffs as of Saturday May 15 in the US. Canadian team have been told the playoffs will likely begin some time between May 17-19, depending on whether Vancouver and Calgary are eliminated before then. That could theoretically happen as early as tonight. Also important is that Edmonton could be locked into its playoff seeding as a 2 depending on how things play out tonight, which means they may choose to rest players for our last two games with them...

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Looking more and more like the Habs will back into the playoffs. Odds still very high we get in but looking like we'll limp in with a sequence of bad performances and a ton of injuries. Habs better hope they get healthy within the week after the season before the post-season starts. They need to be able to sit Staal and Merrill or they're going to be out within 5 games. Bergevin's deadline acquisitions have undoubtedly all made the team worse.

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44 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Looking more and more like the Habs will back into the playoffs. Odds still very high we get in but looking like we'll limp in with a sequence of bad performances and a ton of injuries. Habs better hope they get healthy within the week after the season before the post-season starts. They need to be able to sit Staal and Merrill or they're going to be out within 5 games. Bergevin's deadline acquisitions have undoubtedly all made the team worse.

I hate to say it but perhaps the worst thing that could happen is for the habs to upset the leafs - it just validates Bergevin's bad plan of outdated veterans and lack of vision - there had to be some players that were more help than Staal, Merrill and Gustafson. I am not saying blow the team up, but I am the broken record of chanting get rid of spare parts and commit to more youth thru the draft or trades. I realize we are likely to pick mid-round again and if there's something we should take more chances on, it is trading up or getting higher picks in this year's crap shoot draft OR getting a Bean, Dunn, Dumba etc.

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13 hours ago, campabee82 said:

So I assume with the Canucks loss tonight the Habs Magic number is now 1, correct?

 

5 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Yes. Either we get the point ourselves or both Calgary and Vancouver lose 1.

Yeah, so all Montreal has to do is grab one point against Edmonton, which is locked into 2nd place and could/should rest some players in at least one of the two games you would think.

Failing that, one of Calgary or Vancouver would need to go 5-0 or 7-0 respectively to tie us in points (and possibly pass us in the tiebreaker). We still have odds of 99% of making the playoffs.

Odds of our catching the Jets for 3rd at this point are slim as well though. We'd need 3 points in the last two games without the Jets getting any or to go 2-0 against Edm without the Jets getting more than 1 point in their last 3 games (we lose the tie-break to them). So we have about 95% odds of facing the Leafs in Round 1.

As far as overall standings are concerned, the Rangers and Stars could both miss the playoffs having better records than us, as could the Flyers. And it's down the Mtl and Stl to battle for which team will have the worst record of all the playoff teams. So once again, we look like we will limp in as the last team to make the cut or thereabouts. A reminder that no team has ever won a Cup in the cap era from that low a position in the overall standings. When the Kinds won as an 8 seed in 2012, they went in with the 13th best overall record in the league, a positive goal differential of +15 for the year, and a hot second half. The Habs, assuming they get in, will have somewhere between the 14th and 19th best record in the league, a negative goal differential of -7 thus far, and a poor second half with a ton of injuries and worn-out players. The odds will be very much against us winning anything this year. MB and GM will likely celebrate if we make it out of Round 1 like this is the goal of the season, but the truth is that anything short of a Stanley Cup semi-final appearance this year in a very very weak division should be seen as a failure. Yes the Habs had a tough second half, but they were the healthiest team in the league until Gallagher went down and they certainly weren't a top 5-8 squad at that point anyways. Always possible to surprise in the playoffs but it's not likely the Habs win a Cup, and to have your strategy be "get in and anything can happen" is a bad one because it's been shown that that's not the case for teams that squeak into the playoffs.

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Calgary is whooping Ottawa tonight. So Habs either have to get a point or hope that Calgary can't sweep a weary Canucks team. I don't think it's impossible that Calgary takes them all with Vancouver being at the end of their loaded schedule. So even though the odds are well in our favor from a pure stats perspective, those stats don't take into account the Flames being energized by being close to the playoffs and the Canucks fading if tired and/or eliminated early. The Habs really need to get the point they need themselves.

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Hypothetical question, what are our chances of making the conference finals if we finish 3rd? IMO the Jets have a good enough team to take out the Leafs, we have had the Oilers number this year. Realistically could we come out on top of the Jets to advance out of the North? 

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15 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Hypothetical question, what are our chances of making the conference finals if we finish 3rd? IMO the Jets have a good enough team to take out the Leafs, we have had the Oilers number this year. Realistically could we come out on top of the Jets to advance out of the North? 

We're only 1 {PT. back of the Peg. Mathematically, it's possible. Let the Oil deal with the laffs. would love to see the dominos fall like they did in '93. :)

 

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9 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

We're only 1 {PT. back of the Peg. Mathematically, it's possible. Let the Oil deal with the laffs. would love to see the dominos fall like they did in '93. :)

 

LOL the Jets would face the Leafs but yes same principle 😆

If we beat the Oilers Wed. The Jets have 2 games remaining Nucks again tomorrow (hoping the Nucks win again). Then they would have to face the Leafs to gain back 3rd. That would be a tough battle for the Jets.

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1 minute ago, campabee82 said:

LOL the Jets would face the Leafs but yes same principle 😆

If we beat the Oilers Wed. The Jets have 2 games remaining Nucks again tomorrow (hoping the Nucks win again). Then they would have to face the Leafs to gain back 3rd. That would be a tough battle for the Jets.

Works for me. :)

 

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10 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

We're only 1 {PT. back of the Peg. Mathematically, it's possible. Let the Oil deal with the laffs. would love to see the dominos fall like they did in '93. :)

Whats frustrating (if you want a montreal-edmonton first round matchup) is that a couple of wins in the last 5 or 6 and we would easily be in 3rd place.


Like you said its still possible if we win our last game & the jets lose their last two... we shall see. 

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