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Last Regular Season Game Wed 5:00


H_T_L
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If the Jets lose tonight do we even care about our last game vs the Oilers? My guess is the boys would rather take their chances vs the Leafs. I know our record has been decent vs Edmonton but lets not forget a lot of those games were against the backup and early in the season when the Oil were struggling. Since then McDavid has not been of this world and his team is riding that of late. IMO they would be tougher to handle in a playoff round right now. Add in the extra wear and tear of travel and late night games and to me there's no contest,,,, i' d take the Leafs.

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3 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Lineup in this one should be interesting if the Jets lose tonight (Tues.)

Jets up 3-0. If they hold on to win, then they clinch 3rd, meaning this game has absolutely no meaning to us. I also believe the Habs can freely recall now that they're in the playoffs. So they could potentially rest some regulars (Anderson, Allen, Staal among those who took therapy days today). I wouldn't be surprised to see Primeau get the start and to see Gustafsson play (maybe for Petry or Edmundson?). Maybe they give Ylonen a game for Anderson?

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32 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Jets up 3-0. If they hold on to win, then they clinch 3rd, meaning this game has absolutely no meaning to us. I also believe the Habs can freely recall now that they're in the playoffs. So they could potentially rest some regulars (Anderson, Allen, Staal among those who took therapy days today). I wouldn't be surprised to see Primeau get the start and to see Gustafsson play (maybe for Petry or Edmundson?). Maybe they give Ylonen a game for Anderson?

Yup,,,, looks like it will be the Leafs. Time to rest some guys for a nothing game. For sure i'd play Primeau and as many other spare parts we can find.

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Ylonen and Ouellet recalled and available tonight. Gustafson already announced in the lineup tonight so looks like we're resting a couple D at least.

Belzile and Frolic already on the taxi  squad so also looks like we could be resting several forwards

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1 minute ago, H_T_L said:

Ylonen and Ouellet recalled and available tonight. Gustafson already announced in the lineup tonight so looks like we're resting a couple D at least.

Belzile and Frolic already on the taxi  squad so also looks like we could be resting several forwards

Exciting! I wouldn’t mind seeing Ylonen in the lineup.

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

So if i have to guess i'd say Petry and Edmundson sit out out tonight and up front we give Anderson, Toffu and probably Perry the night off.

Would make sense to rest Petry and Edmundson. Chiarot has played fewer games because of his prior injury, so less wear and tear there. Romanov is younger. Merrill is useless whether he's rested or not. Kulak has had some time off as well.

Up front, Anderson was already questionable a of last night according to Ducharme, so it makes sense not to play him and to slot Ylonen in there. Not seeing a big need to take Perry out though. He doesn't play a ton of minutes and he'll have a week off after this one, so I think he should be rested enough. I'd rather they sit Tatar, who looks awful since he's returned and could possibly still be hurt.

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

Ylonen and Ouellet recalled and available tonight. Gustafson already announced in the lineup tonight so looks like we're resting a couple D at least.

Belzile and Frolic already on the taxi  squad so also looks like we could be resting several forwards

The annoying thing is that if we had just won some games earlier we could have clinched ages ago & then could have made these moves/rested players for a few games. 

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49 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 Merrill is useless whether he's rested or not.

Im shocked at how bad Merrill has looked. Is he just not fitting in to the system?  Its really odd. In NJ he was always an interesting player - i know they thought long and hard about protecting him in the ED but then Vegas took him & he looked good there... by all accounts he wasnt great in Detroit and (besides a few decent games here to start) he's looked terrible in bleu blanc & rouge. I knew he wouldnt be amazing but expected at least Chairot/Edmundson level and i think he's been even worse considering he's usually getting easier assignments.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Im shocked at how bad Merrill has looked. Is he just not fitting in to the system?  Its really odd. In NJ he was always an interesting player - i know they thought long and hard about protecting him in the ED but then Vegas took him & he looked good there... by all accounts he wasnt great in Detroit and (besides a few decent games here to start) he's looked terrible in bleu blanc & rouge. I knew he wouldnt be amazing but expected at least Chairot/Edmundson level and i think he's been even worse considering he's usually getting easier assignments. 

I posted data on this a few times but again, Merrill is our worst offensive defenceman in terms of expected goals for while he's on AND worst defensive defenceman in terms of expected goals against while he's on. Petry has been meh defensively but a beast offensively. Kulak has been decent offensively and a gem defensively. Most of the others have been somewhere in the middle, but the drop-off between the entire group and then Merrill is statistically quite large.

I said this at the time we acquired him, but he looked like a bad defenceman in a bad system in Detroit. In other words, his raw data was bad but on top of that, you couldn't just blame it on playing for a bad team. Outside of one good season in Vegas, he's largely been a negative possession player both in terms of absolute numbers as well as relative to his teammates. So this was entirely predictable that he would continue to be bad here in Montreal.

If we compare him to other D men, Chiarot too has always been a bad possession player both in terms of absolute numbers and relative to his team, albeit not as bad as Merrill. Since joining Montreal, he's become a positive possession player but still weak relative to his team (in other words, he's largely a positive player because Montreal has been a strong possession team the past two years but they're better with him on the bench than with him on the ice). So the numbers would say he's still a bad defenceman to have on your team but a better choice than Merrill.

Edmundson has had pretty decent possession numbers in general in absolute terms, but again bad relative numbers. This is mainly because he's played on strong possession teams in Stl, car, and now Mtl. So he's ahead of the other two but again largely being propped up by his partner/system/team as opposed to being a guy who drives play and helps you of his own accord. He's a guy you can plug in the line-up and gets by as long as you partner him with someone stronger.

Shea Weber's career shows you he was an extremely strong possession player for the first 5-6 years of his career. He finished with +ve relative Corsi's each of his first 5 years but has only been a positive player once in the past 9 seasons. So it tells you he was once dominant but is now a guy who needs to be supported, and that's largely what the eyeball test shows us as well. His relative numbers are still better than the three guys listed above though.

Put that all together and it really just gives you the order these players provide value to the Habs lineup (if healthy) going into the playoffs. All 4 guys need to be supported by puck-moving partners. Weber is the least of the liabilities, followed by Edmundson, Chiarot, and Merrill in that order, but all require help. It's very clear Merrill should be the one of that group to sit.

 

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16 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

What a bizarre start time.

Excited to see some new bodies in the lineup. I hope Ylonen plays!

Ylonen had a goal and an assist in the rocket win last night - My mistake this is a home game so it's possible he could play

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Lines:

Armia-Suzuki-Caufield

Tatar-KK-Perry

Lehkonen-Evans-Byron

Belzile-Frolik-Ylönen

 

Kulak-Chiarot

Romanov-Ouellet

Gustafsson-Merrill

 

Primeau

Lindgren

Pretty much exactly what i envisioned for this one other then Staal being scratched. He's probably the most rested player on the team.:lol:

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