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Wed., June 16, Habs @ Vegas, 9 PM. est. The Usual Broadcasters.


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  • H_T_L pinned this topic

Getting that split would be huge... but even if we don't, I think the boys could still surprise us back home. Anyhow, 1 game at a time. We need Petry back though, otherwise there's essentially zero offensive pressure from our backend, which makes it way too easy for Vegas to shut down our forwards.

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Per Stu Cowen: 

DD said Petry, Evans and Merrill could all play tonight. Hasnt ruled any of them out.

My guess is that Petry goes.  I dont know about the other two.  I think they came into Vegas wanting the split - if we had gotten it without Petry they would have probably kept him out one more game but since we didnt they will try to use him tonight & hope they didnt rush him back too soon. 

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38 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Interestingly, not any mention of Tatar.

Surprised how they seem to have completely dumped him from the plans?  Very odd. I know he wasnt spectacular but surely he's one of our top 12 forwards.  

Going into the season I think Tatar & Drouin were our top two LW.  Crazy we dont have either on the roster through most of the playoffs. 

 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Surprised how they seem to have completely dumped him from the plans?  Very odd. I know he wasnt spectacular but surely he's one of our top 12 forwards.  

Going into the season I think Tatar & Drouin were our top two LW.  Crazy we dont have either on the roster through most of the playoffs. 

 

The team seemed make judgment on Caufield/Kotkaniemi and then Romanov and now Tatar. They've done the same to Kulak and Evans in the past as well... there's a quick rush to believe that younger players or skilled players are liabilities and to overlook the deficiencies of older slower players like Staal, Merrill, Perry, Chiarot, Weber, and so on.

So let's look at the data... Tatar is 2nd on the team in Corsi, 2nd in scoring chances % for, and 6th on the team (4th among forwards) for expected goals % for at 5v5. We're getting close to 70% of the shot attempts and over 60% of the scoring chances when he's been on the ice. Compare that to Byron, who's the guy I would pull out for Tatar, and he's at 40-42% for scoring chances and expected goals for %, meaning we're giving up 3 scoring chances/ expected goals for every 2 we get with Byron on the ice, whereas we're scoring 3 for every 2 we give up with Tatar on. One is significantly better than the other.

Now the next argument we hear about Byron is that he plays the PK, and it's true that he's been decent there. But our best penalty-killing duo in terms of fewest expected goals given up per ice time and fewest scoring chances against per ice time are actually Suzuki and Toffoli. They're way ahead of everyone else. Byron, Evans, and Anderson are all in the next grouping, and then you have Lehkonen, Armia, and Danault who are faring much worse.

Likewise, on defence, Kulak and Romanov have the best numbers on the PK, albeit in limited ice time. Petry is next, then Edmundson. Chiarot and Weber are struggling in this role, and Merrill is way way behind everyone else with by far the worst numbers. At even strength, Gustafsson is way in front of everyone, then Edmundson, Petry, and Weber are the next three leaders statistically, then Kulak and Chiarot, and then Romanov and Merrill are at the bottom of the pile. So once again, there is nothing that suggests Merrill should be in the line-up. He was statistically our worst offensive D man AND worst defensive D man in the regular season and he's essentially in the same basket so far in the playoffs.

So if you're looking at what the stats tell us and who gives us the best chance to win, then theoretically Petry should come in for Romanov, Merrill should stay out even if healthy, Tatar should be in for Byron, and Evans would be in for one of Perry or Anderson. Not to say those are the moves I would personally make, but if you're looking at this purely from the stats angle, that's what the data suggests should be done.

 

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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

There's some speculation Tatar is hurt.  He has been practicing but apparently not shooting at all.   

I believe NHL rules require you to report that a player is injured. It would be highly unlikely they have just failed to report something for several weeks.

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