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2021-22 State of the Habs


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10 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

This is what tanking looks like for all those who wanted it.

You are being too pessimistic - winning on the road is far tougher than winning at home. Give us a few home games - we will be just fine!

:4845:

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This is how you become Buffalo the players get used to not trying. They are going to have to get rid of the coach. Getting Wright is not worth this! we are going to get a good draft pick even if we start playing better so why burn it down lower the value of everyone on the team and set the tone that if we get off to a rough start in the future we can just shut it down, this is how you train young players to be losers. Imagine how they all feel in the dressing room right now! there is half a season to play this is not some backwater town they are playing in when they walk down the street everybody knows who they are, it must suck!

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27 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

This is how you become Buffalo the players get used to not trying. They are going to have to get rid of the coach. Getting Wright is not worth this! we are going to get a good draft pick even if we start playing better so why burn it down lower the value of everyone on the team and set the tone that if we get off to a rough start in the future we can just shut it down, this is how you train young players to be losers. Imagine how they all feel in the dressing room right now! there is half a season to play this is not some backwater town they are playing in when they walk down the street everybody knows who they are, it must suck!

This, so much so this. I would rather win some games and pick later than foster a losing culture. Fire the coach now before it is too late and maybe start winning a few games now and then to get some confidence back into the team.

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At least for this year, I'm just not worried about setting in a losing culture. In fact, I'm worried they will start winning as they get healthy. 

This is what a rebuild is and what Bergevin wouldn't do. We'll know during the offseason at the latest whether Gorton will really do it. I still think we can flip this around in 2 years. 

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3 hours ago, habsisme said:

At least for this year, I'm just not worried about setting in a losing culture. In fact, I'm worried they will start winning as they get healthy. 

This is what a rebuild is and what Bergevin wouldn't do. We'll know during the offseason at the latest whether Gorton will really do it. I still think we can flip this around in 2 years. 

I disagree, the team is lost out  there! even if they start playing for 500 right now we are still probably gong to get a great draft pick! now if this was next year I would be more inclined to try to make it to the bottom as I feel there is a real top tier guy in that draft. not so much this year. Besides who is to say any of the top draft picks from this year will be any good? I know some will be but there are no sure things really just potential. I would rather we play better and start getting our team sorted out with a much better coach who has a clue! then we could find a system that will be our blueprint going forward, then trade sign and buyout as needed to be that team. Drafting is something that we have to do so much better than we have but other than getting a sure thing that is going to take time which is fine but we can't expect a magic bullet! The other thing that needs to get sorted is how we develop these kids! we blow so much money on so many things as a team how about we hire the absolute best people to bring these kids along! I am 100% for a rebuild I just think there are other ways to go about it than the gong show we have now, this is the greatest team the NHL has ever had they should at least try to run it that way.

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40 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

I disagree, the team is lost out  there! even if they start playing for 500 right now we are still probably gong to get a great draft pick! now if this was next year I would be more inclined to try to make it to the bottom as I feel there is a real top tier guy in that draft. not so much this year. Besides who is to say any of the top draft picks from this year will be any good? I know some will be but there are no sure things really just potential. I would rather we play better and start getting our team sorted out with a much better coach who has a clue! then we could find a system that will be our blueprint going forward, then trade sign and buyout as needed to be that team. Drafting is something that we have to do so much better than we have but other than getting a sure thing that is going to take time which is fine but we can't expect a magic bullet! The other thing that needs to get sorted is how we develop these kids! we blow so much money on so many things as a team how about we hire the absolute best people to bring these kids along! I am 100% for a rebuild I just think there are other ways to go about it than the gong show we have now, this is the greatest team the NHL has ever had they should at least try to run it that way.

Sportsclubstats actually has projections of where teams will end up depending on what their record the rest of the way is, albeit it's not up to date over the past week, Some notable notes from their last analysis though:

- If we finish with 43 points or less, we're virtually guaranteed to have the 32nd seed and best odds in the lottery

- If we finish with 59 points or less, we have at least a 50% chance of finishing last

- If we finish .500 the rest of the way we have about 40% odds of finishing 30th and 40% odds of 31st and very little chance of finishing last.

 

I do believe tanking hurts the morale of the team, although if the team brings in a new coach and kind of wipes out this season's negativity next year I think they can turn that around pretty quickly, especially if they get Carey back and/or make some significant roster moves. I will say that even though draft picks are a crapshoot, we 100% know that top 5 picks are more likely than 6-10 picks to be quality NHLers, and 6-10's are in turn more likely than 11-20's and so on. So the higher up you draft, the better your chances of finding a star. I already posted about this a few months ago, but most stars in the league are top 10 picks, and the odds of lower picks becoming stars are much lower, even though there are clearly guys who make it despite being lower selections. So there's still a benefit to picking high. It just hurts that we're picking high again in another bad draft year. 2012 was bad. 2018 was bad. 2022 looks bad. So harder to hit. 2023 looks like it'll be a strong draft though, so wouldn't be terrible to be bad next year and get a shot at Bedard or one of the other blue chippers in that draft.

 

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15 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Sportsclubstats actually has projections of where teams will end up depending on what their record the rest of the way is, albeit it's not up to date over the past week, Some notable notes from their last analysis though:

- If we finish with 43 points or less, we're virtually guaranteed to have the 32nd seed and best odds in the lottery

- If we finish with 59 points or less, we have at least a 50% chance of finishing last

- If we finish .500 the rest of the way we have about 40% odds of finishing 30th and 40% odds of 31st and very little chance of finishing last.

 

I do believe tanking hurts the morale of the team, although if the team brings in a new coach and kind of wipes out this season's negativity next year I think they can turn that around pretty quickly, especially if they get Carey back and/or make some significant roster moves. I will say that even though draft picks are a crapshoot, we 100% know that top 5 picks are more likely than 6-10 picks to be quality NHLers, and 6-10's are in turn more likely than 11-20's and so on. So the higher up you draft, the better your chances of finding a star. I already posted about this a few months ago, but most stars in the league are top 10 picks, and the odds of lower picks becoming stars are much lower, even though there are clearly guys who make it despite being lower selections. So there's still a benefit to picking high. It just hurts that we're picking high again in another bad draft year. 2012 was bad. 2018 was bad. 2022 looks bad. So harder to hit. 2023 looks like it'll be a strong draft though, so wouldn't be terrible to be bad next year and get a shot at Bedard or one of the other blue chippers in that draft.

 

Agreed on everything. And I'd like to be bad next year too, as in if we do get Wright, I don't think you bring him up under any circumstance. 

I heard an analyst compare Wright to Bergeron, he's not going to be a HUGE point producer but he does everything the right way. I have no idea if any of that is true but if it is, that's quality enough for me. 

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6 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

This is how you become Buffalo the players get used to not trying. They are going to have to get rid of the coach. Getting Wright is not worth this! we are going to get a good draft pick even if we start playing better so why burn it down lower the value of everyone on the team and set the tone that if we get off to a rough start in the future we can just shut it down, this is how you train young players to be losers. Imagine how they all feel in the dressing room right now! there is half a season to play this is not some backwater town they are playing in when they walk down the street everybody knows who they are, it must suck!

If we didnt have so many injuries, the covid stuff etc, Id be worried right there with you but i think the whole team sees this season as done & going through the motions.   I think you'll see a totally different team next year.  First of all i think we're going to make several trades before the start of next season but also guys will come back and there's a decent chance we get a top 3 pick who may step right on to the roster next season.

All in all this could be a an aberration of a year.  I dont think we're going to be a cup contender or anything next year but i also do think we're going to be a lottery team two years in a row.  Im not worried about us becoming Barfalo or Edmonton. 

 

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7 hours ago, maas_art said:

If we didnt have so many injuries, the covid stuff etc, Id be worried right there with you but i think the whole team sees this season as done & going through the motions.   I think you'll see a totally different team next year.  First of all i think we're going to make several trades before the start of next season but also guys will come back and there's a decent chance we get a top 3 pick who may step right on to the roster next season.

All in all this could be a an aberration of a year.  I dont think we're going to be a cup contender or anything next year but i also do think we're going to be a lottery team two years in a row.  Im not worried about us becoming Barfalo or Edmonton. 

 

Yeah it's brutal but I think we can all agree this team, when healthy, isn't the absolute worst in the entire league. It's still a poorly built team and that's fully on Bergevin, but it's also been a perfect storm this year that started during the offseaon with Danault, Weber, Price, Edmundson, the draft, the offer sheet, and then all those other injuries added up.

I totally understand ramcharger's concern though. Going forward, having a strong leadership structure is going to be really important to help guide the kids through the rebuild. We had that with Weber, Price, Gallagher, Danault, and Petry but there's not much left of that group and who knows if Price, Petry, and Gallagher will even be here in a couple of years. Filling that void won't be easy but it's key IMO.

Edit: Oh yeah, and a capable coach who's not in way over his head would certainly help as well.

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12 hours ago, maas_art said:

If we didnt have so many injuries, the covid stuff etc, Id be worried right there with you but i think the whole team sees this season as done & going through the motions.   I think you'll see a totally different team next year.  First of all i think we're going to make several trades before the start of next season but also guys will come back and there's a decent chance we get a top 3 pick who may step right on to the roster next season.

All in all this could be a an aberration of a year.  I dont think we're going to be a cup contender or anything next year but i also do think we're going to be a lottery team two years in a row.  Im not worried about us becoming Barfalo or Edmonton. 

 

Maybe I'm not convinced that we bounce back that quickly, but anybody that doesn't think that this year is skewed so far to the extreme,  clearly doesn't understand what's happening here. It is definitely an aberration,  but depending upon what direction management decides to go,  namely,  if they do get rid of big pieces for draft picks, then I still see us as a bottom 10 team. But, maybe more exciting?  Time will tell. 

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6 hours ago, ChiLla said:

Yeah it's brutal but I think we can all agree this team, when healthy, isn't the absolute worst in the entire league. It's still a poorly built team and that's fully on Bergevin, but it's also been a perfect storm this year that started during the offseaon with Danault, Weber, Price, Edmundson, the draft, the offer sheet, and then all those other injuries added up.

I totally understand ramcharger's concern though. Going forward, having a strong leadership structure is going to be really important to help guide the kids through the rebuild. We had that with Weber, Price, Gallagher, Danault, and Petry but there's not much left of that group and who knows if Price, Petry, and Gallagher will even be here in a couple of years. Filling that void won't be easy but it's key IMO.

Edit: Oh yeah, and a capable coach who's not in way over his head would certainly help as well.

I would agree with you on the perfect storm - I’ve never see the degree of bad bounces thrown this teams way in a long time - where has the “H” gone within the logo - it was supposed to be Horseshoe. 
However you could see the poor construction in last season when the team was struggling for a playoff position and this year’s divisional competition was going to be tough with the youth of Tampa, Florida, Boston and Toronto about to push the team aside. Bergevin went down swinging with aging contracts and attempts to plug gaps. 
The coach search will be tough. I’ve heard Benoit Groulx mentioned but we’ve already had a junior coach with an impressive resume - I hope Groulx has learned much more from his AHL experience if he is indeed the man.

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1 hour ago, electron58 said:

Maybe I'm not convinced that we bounce back that quickly, but anybody that doesn't think that this year is skewed so far to the extreme,  clearly doesn't understand what's happening here. It is definitely an aberration,  but depending upon what direction management decides to go,  namely,  if they do get rid of big pieces for draft picks, then I still see us as a bottom 10 team. But, maybe more exciting?  Time will tell. 

For sure. If Gorton absolutely guts the team then yeah but I actually dont think he will. I think we're going to see anyone over around 26-27 being shopped  but i doubt he moves on from everyone. Guys like Toffoli or Edmundson I could see him actually hanging on to.   Time will tell. I think Gorton/Hughes will make a few big moves but i think we're going to be vastly more competitive next year.   I know some people will say thats a mistake, we should tank for 2 years in a row to get 2 great young players but i think our roster, when healthy, is just too good for that. 

18 minutes ago, claremont said:

I would agree with you on the perfect storm - I’ve never see the degree of bad bounces thrown this teams way in a long time - where has the “H” gone within the logo - it was supposed to be Horseshoe. 
However you could see the poor construction in last season when the team was struggling for a playoff position and this year’s divisional competition was going to be tough

Agree.   This team was never built to be a contender, but should have been a bubble team but those first 15-20 games of the year really messed everything up. 

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Not replacing key players , injuries , coivid , this train wreck was bound to happen

 

Season GP W L OTL Pts GF GA Finish Playoffs
2016–17 82 47 26 9 103 226 199 1st, Atlantic Lost in First Round, 2–4 (Rangers)
2017–18 82 29 40 13 71 209 264 6th, Atlantic Did not qualify
2018–19 82 44 30 8 96 249 236 4th, Atlantic Did not qualify
2019–20 71 31 31 9 71 212 221 5th, Atlantic Lost in First Round, 2–4 (Flyers) made playoffs due to a bye in   
2020–21 56 24 21 11 59 159 168 4th, North

Lost in Stanley Cup Finals, 1–4 (Lightning)  Can anyone explain this ?

 

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As the Montreal Canadiens continue to recover from the outbreak of COVID-19 and injury bug the team has begun to adjust their roster accordingly. The next move from the team was to reassign defenceman Corey Schueneman back to the Laval Rocket of the AHL.

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By the way, I found this on another site, but its interesting because a lot of us forget how young some of our players are.

We will often say things like we want to keep our young players like Suzuki, CC and Evans but remember also that:

Rem Pitlick is 1 year younger than Evans.  
Kale Clague is 2 years younger than Evans.  
Dvorak is the same age as Evans,
Lehkonen is 11 months older than Evans.
Drouin is 15 months older than Evans.

All of these guys are young enough to be around for a rebuild. 

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1 hour ago, maas_art said:

By the way, I found this on another site, but its interesting because a lot of us forget how young some of our players are.

We will often say things like we want to keep our young players like Suzuki, CC and Evans but remember also that:

Rem Pitlick is 1 year younger than Evans.  
Kale Clague is 2 years younger than Evans.  
Dvorak is the same age as Evans,
Lehkonen is 11 months older than Evans.
Drouin is 15 months older than Evans.

All of these guys are young enough to be around for a rebuild. 

Yes, but I doubt being young is the only criteria.  I think we all know what we're getting at least from Lehkonen or Drouin by now.  We aren't lacking in the young department.  We're lacking in the young but good department.

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