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2021-22 State of the Habs


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11 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

 

Meh. I don't have much to say about the penalty to be honest. It was a penalty. It came at a bad time. But that said, it wasn't like Petry made a boneheaded play and took a dumb retaliation penalty or got caught out and reached back to grab someone or took a penalty in the O zone or so on. He lined up a hit, the guy sidestepped him, and his momentum carried him into making a hit on the guy's leg instead. It was more just an unfortunate event at a terrible time, and a lot of members of the media were quick to jump on it and blow it out of proportion. They've loved crapping on Petry all season, in addition to guys like Caufield and Toffoli and Gallagher. But those same media members don't have anything bad to say about Savard or Chiarot or Perreault or Dvorak. They didn't pile on Montembeault when he played badly upon arriving here. Why? Because a lot of the media frankly 1. Loves to defend Francophones and hype them up and 2. Loves to defend gritty journeymen.

The other thing is that it's partly about expectations. Petry's probably been our most valuable player over the past few years and he carried the D corps several times when Weber was out. I believe he's a top 5-10 D man in the league for scoring over the past 3-4 years combined. But when things go badly, the media will jump on how Petry isn't playing like a top D any more. Yet the numbers show he's still been better than most everyone else on the D corps. They've all sucked, and most have sucked worse than Petry, but Petry's expected to do more. The only guy with better advanced metric than Petry this year is Wideman, and The Athletic just published numbers to show that Wideman has been significantly sheltered this year, whereas Petry and Chiarot have had the toughest match-ups by far. The media did the same thing to Gomez, to Pacioretty, to Galchenyuk, to Eller. They love to pile on guys who aren't meeting their expectations, even if the data shows those guys are still doing better than their teammates.

Is something off with Petry this year? Yup. But then so too is there something off with 90% of the roster. It's a D corps with exactly one top 4 defenceman and very few puck movers. It's a roster that hasn't had an starter-quality goalie half the time. It's a team with one top 6 center and not a single elite player at any position. So not sure what anyone thought was going to happen when you start with a poorly-constructed roster and then tack on tons of injuries. To boot, we know guys like Petry and Armia have both had COVID at least twice, and we know that it can affect your long-term energy, breathing, and so on. I also think it's no secret now that Petry didn't like Ducharme. So yeah, the guy hasn't been his usual stellar self, but there are factors that have led to that, and I don't think it's all that helpful to try to play up every bad play he's made and blow it our of proportion. This wasn't Domi taking countless selfish retaliatory penalties. But it was predictable that the Lapierres and Brunets and Stocks and Morrisettes of the world, who had little talent of their own when they played would love to talk about how poor the team's star players have done.

 

I agree with one thing in this post and that is the penalty called on Petry. 

Other then that, he should be called out, he has been down right brutal, 6 th in scoring for deeman on this team, a measurable, highest paid deeman on the team this season, almost double what the next highest paid deeman gets, measurable....

You can make all the excuses you want for him. Yes the team has sucked, everybody has sucked, be bad because the team is bad, that is fine as well, your numbers can be down compared to other years, that is fine to,  but dont be the worst !!! when your paid the most!!!  6 points for a 6.25 million contract, that to me is an more albatross then Savard at 3.5 million and 9 points. I would sooner have Chariot at 3.5 then Petry at 6.25. 

And yes everybody makes mistakes and if your looking for just the mistakes you can find then on a regular basis. Like your beat down Chariot over the years, Yet he has been one of our most reliable deeman in relation to his salary, i would even say has played above his salary in teh years he has been here.   

I certainly think managment feels the same way about Petry, that he is been brutal, not just in relation to the team being brutal, but one of our worst players in relation to his salaray, the fact they said we are not going to give him away, to me is  media maneuvering to build up his trade value, i am sure they would take a prospect back, to rid the team of him and the 6.25 million. Just not sure that even those offers are coming in. 

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16 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

If they trade Petry, Chiarot, and Kulak, then this is essentially the D they have with Edmundson and Savard out:

Romanov-Niku

Clague-Wideman

Schueneman-Brook

 

Not sure it'll be any better. 

LOL...It wont be 

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5 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

Chiarot put on injured reserve with an LBI.

With the Habs luck, it was bound to happen.  That's why I would have traded him sooner rather than later.  He has to miss at least 7 days.

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2 hours ago, caperns61 said:

I agree with one thing in this post and that is the penalty called on Petry. 

Other then that, he should be called out, he has been down right brutal, 6 th in scoring for deeman on this team, a measurable, highest paid deeman on the team this season, almost double what the next highest paid deeman gets, measurable....

You can make all the excuses you want for him. Yes the team has sucked, everybody has sucked, be bad because the team is bad, that is fine as well, your numbers can be down compared to other years, that is fine to,  but dont be the worst !!! when your paid the most!!!  6 points for a 6.25 million contract, that to me is an more albatross then Savard at 3.5 million and 9 points. I would sooner have Chariot at 3.5 then Petry at 6.25. 

And yes everybody makes mistakes and if your looking for just the mistakes you can find then on a regular basis. Like your beat down Chariot over the years, Yet he has been one of our most reliable deeman in relation to his salary, i would even say has played above his salary in teh years he has been here.   

I certainly think managment feels the same way about Petry, that he is been brutal, not just in relation to the team being brutal, but one of our worst players in relation to his salaray, the fact they said we are not going to give him away, to me is  media maneuvering to build up his trade value, i am sure they would take a prospect back, to rid the team of him and the 6.25 million. Just not sure that even those offers are coming in. 

Oh, I'd trade Petry if we can get a good offer for him. But I also think we might get a better deal if we wait until next year, when we're a healthier, better team, he has a better chance of finding his game, and he has less money/term left on his deal. So I'm not in a rush to trade him. You're right that the more money you make, the higher the expectations. He's also been our best D man over the past few years, so the expectations are higher for that reason too. All I'm saying is that if you look at level of play, Petry is not as bad as some make him out to be. Here are possession metrics for our D men:

Corsi:

- Wideman 53.9%

2. Petry 49.3%

3. Kulak 47.8%

4. Romanv 45.9%

5. Chiarot 45.8%

6. Niku 45.6%

7. Clague 44.2%

8. Savard 43.6%

 

Expected Goals For:

1. Niku 53.7%

2. Wideman 51.4%

3. Kulak 47.6%

4. Petry 46.8%

5. Romanov 44.7%

6. Chiarot 42.0%

7. Savard 41.4%

8. Clague 38.2%

 

And keeping in mind that Petry and Chiarot are the two guys getting the toughest match-ups and zone starts, whereas Wideman, Kulak, and Niku have had the easiest. So you look at these numbers and frankly, Petry is still outplaying Chiarot, he's outplaying Romanov, and he's grossly outplaying Clague and Savard. Does it mean he's playing well? No, not by a longshot. This is Petry's worst year as a Hab, and I'm not defending his level of play as being acceptable. I'm simply saying that when you compare him to the rest of the D, he's far from having been the worst defenceman. The stats say that when he's on the ice, the Habs are controlling more of the play than when he's off. And if we're going to rag on Petry for taking a penalty, well he's taken the fewest penalties by a defenceman per ice time the entire year outside of Niku. Top 3 worst in this category? Wideman, Chiarot, and Savard.

So you want to rag on Petry for having a down year? Fine. But then we should be talking even more about how badly the others have played too. Other than Wideman, they all have worse possession metrics. Other than Niku, they've all taken more penalties per ice time. Other than Chiarot, they've all had easier zone starts. And not one of them has had tougher match-ups than Petry. If people think our D is going to be better without Petry than with him, I'm laughing, because the stats clearly show that's not going to be the case. I'm just tired of the media (particularly the French media) ragging on guys like Petry, Pacioretty, Subban, Eller, Gomez, and so on and running good players out of town while defending more marginal players like Savard, Desharnais, Moen, Chiarot, etc.

 

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If the other teams near the bottom keep playing at the same winning percentage they have thus far, we can expect them to end up around here:

- Ottawa 69 pts

- Buffalo 64 pts

- Philadelphia 64 pts

- Seattle 62 pts

- Arizona 48 pts

 

The Habs currently have 23 points and 34 games to go. So to finish below Arizona's current course, they'd need to score 25 points or less in those 34 games (e.g. 12-21-1 record).

To finish in the bottom 2 below the rest of this sorry bunch, they'd have to score 39 points or less in those 24 games (e.g. 19-14-1).

Now is it possible that the other teams trade away assets and/or play worse the rest of the way compared to where they are now? Absolutely. But the point is that even if the Habs play .500 hockey the rest of the way, they're still looking strong to finish bottom 2 (which guarantees a top 4 pick in the draft).

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46 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

If the other teams near the bottom keep playing at the same winning percentage they have thus far, we can expect them to end up around here:

- Ottawa 69 pts

- Buffalo 64 pts

- Philadelphia 64 pts

- Seattle 62 pts

- Arizona 48 pts

 

The Habs currently have 23 points and 34 games to go. So to finish below Arizona's current course, they'd need to score 25 points or less in those 34 games (e.g. 12-21-1 record).

To finish in the bottom 2 below the rest of this sorry bunch, they'd have to score 39 points or less in those 24 games (e.g. 19-14-1).

Now is it possible that the other teams trade away assets and/or play worse the rest of the way compared to where they are now? Absolutely. But the point is that even if the Habs play .500 hockey the rest of the way, they're still looking strong to finish bottom 2 (which guarantees a top 4 pick in the draft).

yeah its basically a race (to the bottom) between Arizona and us. Its an extra 12.5% at winning the lottery if we remain behind them though

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21 minutes ago, habsisme said:

yeah its basically a race (to the bottom) between Arizona and us. Its an extra 12.5% at winning the lottery if we remain behind them though

We are never going to win that lottery! Bettman will fix it so Arizona wins it! it is his favorite team and must survive at all costs in Arizona!

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2 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

We are never going to win that lottery! Bettman will fix it so Arizona wins it! it is his favorite team and must survive at all costs in Arizona!

This does worry me too.  I don't trust Bettman,  and I could probably throw him quite a ways.

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https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2022/2/15/22933906/montreal-canadiens-trade-tyler-toffoli-kent-hughes-jeff-gorton-habs-chiarot-petry-trade-deadline-nhl

The Montreal Canadiens may have just made the first move, but their intentions are clear

The organization didn’t have to trade Tyler Toffoli. The fact he’s the first one moved out speaks volumes.

The Tyler Toffoli trade may be the most intriguing trade that the Montreal Canadiens have made in recent memory, and it just happened to be the first major move made by the new regime.

General manager Kent Hughes and executive vice president of hockey operations Jeff Gorton have been quite deliberate and clear about their intentions to build their long-term vision for the franchise.

With that, it made it clear that players on expiring contracts like Ben Chiarot should expect to be traded. Same thing for veterans like Jeff Petry, who will be moved if the team gets a package that helps both parties. No one would have batted an eyelash if either of those were the first moves. The fact that it was Toffoli means that Kent Hughes wasn’t lying when he said Dominique Ducharme’s firing was the first of “many” moves.

They have already said that they are not looking for bandaids to cover up issues. Rebuilding has become a weird word to avoid when discussing what the Canadiens are doing, with words like retool or reset being used in its stead. What everyone needs to understand is that this team is being rebuilt.

It doesn’t matter what word you use to call it, but Gorton and Hughes will make the Canadiens their team, and they understand it will probably take a few years to get there.

Gorton and Hughes are not interested in simply turning this hockey team into a quilt with mismatched pieces of fabric. If you don’t fit into their future plans, and they can get someone or something that can, they will pull the trigger. It’s one thing to say there will be many changes, it’s another to put your plan into action.

It means that everything we have known about the current version of the Canadiens can change. Players who have fit in may no longer fit in. We may even see that prospects the previous administration held dear no longer are viewed the same way.

There are still a lot of specifics that need to be figured out in terms of which players are sent out, and what exactly is brought in but we now know what the new braintrust of the Canadiens are thinking. They are all-in on the future. People may look at the incoming draft picks and prospects skeptical that they will amount to anything other than footnotes. That’s the thing with building with youth, after all. You’re only as good as your ability to turn the picks and prospects into NHL players.

Gorton and Hughes understand that, too. They are choosing that path anyway, and they are betting on themselves.

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1 hour ago, KRH said:

Any player over 25-26 years of age, thank you for your service, see ya later.

Let's go 100 percent with youth.  No point in going part way with it.

 

You still need some vets to teach the younger guys the ins and outs of the game, to develop them properly IMO.

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1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

You still need some vets to teach the younger guys the ins and outs of the game, to develop them properly IMO.

I'd say clean it out.  Get swift, eager, robust, youth in there.  At least it would be fun to watch.  Most or all of the vets need to go, watching some of them play is like watching paint dry. 

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4 hours ago, KRH said:

Any player over 25-26 years of age, thank you for your service, see ya later.

Let's go 100 percent with youth.  No point in going part way with it.

 

Pretty sure we wouldnt even come close to the cap floor with that plan.... 

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5 hours ago, electron58 said:

Yes. A rebuild. Can't keep chasing your tail,  year after year. Need to chart a path, have some direction. 

Kent Hughes when asked during his presser today, what trading Toffoli signifies "We are not looking to tear this down and get the 1st OVA draft pick in the next 2 years. We are looking to build on what we have going forward" 

 

NOT a rebuild! is it the best plan given the state of the Habs, probably not but we can't really do much about that. We have a team that with the right moves CAN be a playoff team and can go deep. The key will be Hughes identifying and making those right moves. Thus far I am not sure he has after the Toffoli trade, since he said "the plan wasn't to tear it down and get the 1st ova pick in the next 2 drafts."

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Promising answer from Hughes today when asked about Jordan Harris.

Hughes said they met during the ASG break and he (KH) has communicated his interest in signing Jordan & he said he's confident it will get done.   Remember, Hughes' own sons play with Harris at Northeastern. 

 

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As an add on to the above, Hughes also said that the team was looking to build for the future to be perennial contenders but wasn't looking to be contenders next year. He is better at talking in circles and saying nothing at all than MB was lol. One question he basically says rebuild the next he says no rebuild lol

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17 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Kent Hughes when asked during his presser today, what trading Toffoli signifies "We are not looking to tear this down and get the 1st OVA draft pick in the next 2 years. We are looking to build on what we have going forward" 

 

NOT a rebuild! is it the best plan given the state of the Habs, probably not but we can't really do much about that. We have a team that with the right moves CAN be a playoff team and can go deep. The key will be Hughes identifying and making those right moves. Thus far I am not sure he has after the Toffoli trade, since he said "the plan wasn't to tear it down and get the 1st ova pick in the next 2 drafts."

The GM can't show his cards if he wants to make the best deals. Let's be real this is a rebuild they may not want to phrase it that way but it is.

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1 minute ago, maas_art said:

Promising answer from Hughes today when asked about Jordan Harris.

Hughes said they met during the ASG break and he (KH) has communicated his interest in signing Jordan & he said he's confident it will get done.   Remember, Hughes' own sons play with Harris at Northeastern. 

 

St. Louis also has connections to Harris, I would say it gives us reason to be caitiouly optimistic about signing him.

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