2021-22 State of the Habs

[BigTed3]

2 hours ago, seth505 said:

Really hope this brings back the Petry from last year haha.  That said, it is hard for me to be ok with trading certain players. Players like Leks and Romanov.  Romanov is always so happy looking and first to his teammate when they score, character like that is fun to build off of.

I have no interest in trading Romanov, and I think there's a near-zero chance they do. He's a young guy who'll only get better.

Lehkonen, as I've already gone over, is a very useful player but one who is not going to be worth the contract he's in the process of earning. Just look at Armia after the last two playoffs... everyone talked about how dominant he was and a rare mix of size, defensive ability, forechecking, and a bit of scoring. And he got 3.4M on a reasonably long-term deal. So what if we give Lehkonen the same money for the next 5 years? Worth it? To be a 3rd/4th liner? I get that he's been our most consistent player this year and a nice two-way player, but the question is not what he's done for us, it's what he'll do for us over the term of his next contract and whether he'll be worth it. Look at Gallagher. One of our best bargains over the past 5 years, but is he a guy you want to keep for the next 6-7 years at his new price? What about Petry? Byron?

Hughes has already been pretty clear that he wants to buy low and sell high, which is what you need to do to win. You want to sign guys and keep them through the time they're 28-30, as we are planning on doing with Suzuki. But you don't want to be overpaying for depth players nor giving term and money to guys past their 30th birthdays. Maybe you offer a core player money through 32 or 33. Hard to win when you overpay your supporting cast and don't have room for the core.

[BigTed3]

2 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Slew foot subban 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/nhl-pk-subban-roasted-blackhawks-brandon-hagel-trip-just-dirty-play-220149545.html

Hagel on PK Subban's trip: "There's a reason the guy slew-foots everyone and gets these dirty fines... I have a clear-cut breakaway. What are going to do? It's just a dirty play. It is what it is. He can do what he wants but it's not going to get him very liked around the league"

Subban's play has certainly dropped off considerably over the past few years. He's not worth anything close to his current contract. But... he's also a guy who's on the downside of his career, can move the puck, and can help a PP. For a team like ours where we're lacking any type of quality on the right side, he could be a stopgap until other players are ready. If you can sign him to a 1-2 year deal for 2.5-3M a year, then it could be a decent option for us and it would give him a chance to get his career back on track and get back to a city where he loves the fans. I would have said impossible with Bergevin in place and I still don't know how it would work if Gallagher were here, but his style of play fits what Gorton and Hughes have said they want, he would put fans in the seats to get Molson some of the money he's lost back, and it could be a fit for everyone.

As for the slewfoots, yes, definitely a problem and not a way of playing anyone would condone. But it doesn't mean that Xavier Ouellet or Chris Wideman or Josh Brook are a better option for us.

[claremont]

2 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Slew foot subban 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/nhl-pk-subban-roasted-blackhawks-brandon-hagel-trip-just-dirty-play-220149545.html

Hagel on PK Subban's trip: "There's a reason the guy slew-foots everyone and gets these dirty fines... I have a clear-cut breakaway. What are going to do? It's just a dirty play. It is what it is. He can do what he wants but it's not going to get him very liked around the league"

I hope the Subban train has sailed - the fan base plus I, loved the enthusiasm that he brought to the league in his early days notwithstanding his great donation to the Montreal hospital community from his large contract. Given the feud between his ego and Patches ego that divided the team chemistry, it put Mgmt. in a tenuous position of having to choose one or the other. In the end, I think MB got this one right by choosing neither. I don't think we should try to rewind the clock on Subban

If we trade Petry and only have Savard on the right side - yikes, then I would take my chances with a youth movement of trialling Romanov or Guhle (both of who have proficiencies playing that side, acquiring another RHD (hopefully in the Petry or Lehkonen trades) or resigning Wideman, well before picking up the cheap Subban.  I'll be pessimistic on Josh Brook - I am doubtful that he reaches his potential but 15-25 games in Laval this year should determine this possibility. 

[BigTed3]

12 minutes ago, claremont said:

I hope the Subban train has sailed - the fan base plus I, loved the enthusiasm that he brought to the league in his early days notwithstanding his great donation to the Montreal hospital community from his large contract. Given the feud between his ego and Patches ego that divided the team chemistry, it put Mgmt. in a tenuous position of having to choose one or the other. In the end, I think MB got this one right by choosing neither. I don't think we should try to rewind the clock on Subban

If we trade Petry and only have Savard on the right side - yikes, then I would take my chances with a youth movement of trialling Romanov or Guhle (both of who have proficiencies playing that side, acquiring another RHD (hopefully in the Petry or Lehkonen trades) or resigning Wideman, well before picking up the cheap Subban.  I'll be pessimistic on Josh Brook - I am doubtful that he reaches his potential but 15-25 games in Laval this year should determine this possibility. 

It's funny that you say the feud was between Subban and Pacioretty because over time we've learned that those two players actually got along. It seems more like the feud was between Subban and the likes of Gallagher, Eller, and Plekanec. But Subban himself seemed to have support from Pacioretty, Price, Markov, Galchenyuk, Weise, Gill and others. I don't think Subban was as disliked in the locker room as the media made out. I think it was more that Therrien strongly disliked him and did his best to smear his name in the press and with the other players.

[claremont]

3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Jeff Petry today stating that with MSL, players can actually look forward to coming to the rink and that he's put the joy back into the game. Says he's the type of coach he'd like to play for for a long time... 

Right now, though, the state of the Habs is a bit in flux. On the one hand, they're not built to challenge for a Cup in the next two years. On the other hand, we've seen what having a coach with his head on straight can do. Still a lot of work to do on special teams. But overall it's a positive. The question thus becomes, what do Hughes and Gorton see as their window to win? Is it in 2 years or is it in 4-5 years? 

From my view, I still see them shopping Chiarot and Kulak and Perreault this year. So still a lot of balls up in the air here. FWIW, I'll also throw out that I think the team will make an offer to Letang .The organizational depth at RHD is so poor Not to say those players will want to come here, but MSL being in place means we might be able to finally attract top-end skill players who want to play for a coach who allows skill to flourish.

Petry - if the Quebec COVID protocols become a thing of the past, Petry has 3 young sons, and jerking them back and forth across the border has to be a concern. I could still see him playing here, depending on his wife's input. 

Agree with you on the state of flux - MSL's changes have complicated things. I believe Hughes and Gorton will target a long window - not necessarily 2, 3, or 4 years from now, but a consistent compete core built around Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov, Anderson and to be plus minused as a core going forward (e.g. Guhle, Joshua Roy), and probably Price for the next 3 years based on performance. In other words, it will evolve. There might be a couple of vets as supporting cast Gallagher, Dvorak, Petry. A supporting cast of Poehling, Evans, Pitlick is a tier B core. 

Certainly hope they shop the players you mentioned plus Lehkonen (not a fit on long term value), before the deadline. RHD is a complexity - really on Letang? Yes he's going to be 35 i April but he will want a 3 year term at Petry money or more. So you trade Petry for cap space and some sort of assets (not much as his contract may be a hinderance), and then do a similar handcuff with Letang for leadership / stability. This doesn't make much sense as you are throwing more money at a problem of trying to prop up Savard. I certainly hope we get some sort of RHD prospect back in a Chiarot or Lehkonen trade. I'm at the point where you could just buyout Savard and be done with him. 

[RCAF48]

MSL's arrival and the demise of DD's systems has reinvigorated Petry and led to better play from the remainder of our D........................it may be interesting to see if the MSL style of play will help Savard turn his season around.

[caperns61]

4 minutes ago, claremont said:

Petry - if the Quebec COVID protocols become a thing of the past, Petry has 3 young sons, and jerking them back and forth across the border has to be a concern. I could still see him playing here, depending on his wife's input. 

Agree with you on the state of flux - MSL's changes have complicated things. I believe Hughes and Gorton will target a long window - not necessarily 2, 3, or 4 years from now, but a consistent compete core built around Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov, Anderson and to be plus minused as a core going forward (e.g. Guhle, Joshua Roy), and probably Price for the next 3 years based on performance. In other words, it will evolve. There might be a couple of vets as supporting cast Gallagher, Dvorak, Petry. A supporting cast of Poehling, Evans, Pitlick is a tier B core. 

Certainly hope they shop the players you mentioned plus Lehkonen (not a fit on long term value), before the deadline. RHD is a complexity - really on Letang? Yes he's going to be 35 i April but he will want a 3 year term at Petry money or more. So you trade Petry for cap space and some sort of assets (not much as his contract may be a hinderance), and then do a similar handcuff with Letang for leadership / stability. This doesn't make much sense as you are throwing more money at a problem of trying to prop up Savard. I certainly hope we get some sort of RHD prospect back in a Chiarot or Lehkonen trade. I'm at the point where you could just buyout Savard and be done with him. 

If you could sign Letang that would an upgrade over Petry for sure on the right side. He is easily top 10 in the league and likely a top 5. Aslo it give you the ability to move Petry to get a nice young right dee prospect who could slot in behind Letang.

I said this when Toffoli was traded, We gave up nothing to get him and we get a 1st and possible top 6 prospect i liked the trade.

Same as Petry. If we could we could get Braden Schneider. and a  first.  I would even throw in lekonen if they wanted to get the deal done

Our starting dee next year would be, Romanov and Letang, Guhle and Scheinder ( two young heavy hitters and very mobile ),  Savard and ???

Plus 3 first round picks...that would be sweet . 

[claremont]

4 minutes ago, caperns61 said:Same as Petry. If we could we could get Braden Schneider. and a  first.  I would even throw in lekonen if they wanted to get the deal done

Our starting dee next year would be, Romanov and Letang, Guhle and Scheinder ( two young heavy hitters and very mobile ),  Savard and ???

Plus 3 first round picks...that would be sweet . 

I’d be all over that - the ?? Marks on the left side would be a depth battle between Edmundson, Norlinder and possibly Jordan Harris which would be a nice LHD development trajectory as Edmundson inevitably moves on. 
The free agency fills are interesting as Centre - Hertl and RHD (depending on Petry) are positions of need but even though LW Forsberg is strong, that’s a lot of LW $ cap money of Drouin, Hoffman then Forsberg when you have Pezzetta/ Joshua Roy, Poehling / Pitlick if not Centre as support cast. On that basis I would pass on Forsberg and go after a marquee LW next year unless Drouin or Hoffman could be unloaded. 

[habsisme]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

It's funny that you say the feud was between Subban and Pacioretty because over time we've learned that those two players actually got along. It seems more like the feud was between Subban and the likes of Gallagher, Eller, and Plekanec. But Subban himself seemed to have support from Pacioretty, Price, Markov, Galchenyuk, Weise, Gill and others. I don't think Subban was as disliked in the locker room as the media made out. I think it was more that Therrien strongly disliked him and did his best to smear his name in the press and with the other players.

he donated 10 million dollars and wasnt nominated for the King Clancy. I don't know who were the teams but there was a big number of players that had some issue with PK. Anyway, I'm on team Gallagher every time

[BigTed3]

55 minutes ago, RCAF48 said:

MSL's arrival and the demise of DD's systems has reinvigorated Petry and led to better play from the remainder of our D........................it may be interesting to see if the MSL style of play will help Savard turn his season around.

Anything is possible, and in general I think all players are playing better being more relaxed and on the same page. Son in the long run, everyone is helped. That said, MSL's philosophy really seems to help players who want to take risks with the puck and play with skill. It's encouraged, and there's less fear of repercussion. It seems to have helped the better skaters on the team more than anyone else, so I'm not sure it'll apply as much to Savard. We haven't seen the likes of Poehling, Gallagher, Chiarot, Armia, etc. helped as much by MSL (again not to suggest they aren't playing better in general but with less personal success/improvement) and those players are more in-your-face type players as opposed to being skilled guys and great skaters. If anything, the two guys I'm more excited to see come back to figure out how they perform with MSL at the helm are Drouin and Dvorak. Two guys known for skill in the past and who you'd hope can break out more with this style of coaching.

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

Petry - if the Quebec COVID protocols become a thing of the past, Petry has 3 young sons, and jerking them back and forth across the border has to be a concern. I could still see him playing here, depending on his wife's input. 

Agree with you on the state of flux - MSL's changes have complicated things. I believe Hughes and Gorton will target a long window - not necessarily 2, 3, or 4 years from now, but a consistent compete core built around Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov, Anderson and to be plus minused as a core going forward (e.g. Guhle, Joshua Roy), and probably Price for the next 3 years based on performance. In other words, it will evolve. There might be a couple of vets as supporting cast Gallagher, Dvorak, Petry. A supporting cast of Poehling, Evans, Pitlick is a tier B core. 

Certainly hope they shop the players you mentioned plus Lehkonen (not a fit on long term value), before the deadline. RHD is a complexity - really on Letang? Yes he's going to be 35 i April but he will want a 3 year term at Petry money or more. So you trade Petry for cap space and some sort of assets (not much as his contract may be a hinderance), and then do a similar handcuff with Letang for leadership / stability. This doesn't make much sense as you are throwing more money at a problem of trying to prop up Savard. I certainly hope we get some sort of RHD prospect back in a Chiarot or Lehkonen trade. I'm at the point where you could just buyout Savard and be done with him. 

Here's the vibe I got from Hughes and Gorton, and it kind of mirrors what was done with the Rangers: in terms of moves made to swap around assets, trades will be made to focus on being a good team in 2-3 years. I don't personally feel like they're looking at a longer re-build window than this. I think they take next year to sort things out, and they plan on being competitive for the playoffs the year after and a contender soon after that. Not to say they'll get there, but I think that's the plan. But part of that plan, as with the Rangers, is that being good in 2-3 years doesn't mean being bad right up front. If they can sign free agents without giving up assets, I think they'll do it. If they can sign a Letang because Hughes has that connection, I think they'll be open to it. I don't think Letang will be looking for more than a 3-year deal and maybe even 2, and if you do that, I think the Habs would be willing to gamble he's still a strong player for at least the next 2 seasons. If they can go out and get Forsberg or Hertl or Malkin to a not-ridiculous contract, I don't think they would turn that down. I think they would turn down trading an Anderson for a Jamie Benn or a Patrice Bergeron. In other words, I don't think they're going to trade out of their window, but I do think they'll be open to improving the top end of their roster if they can do it in a manner that doesn't force them to give up assets and that doesn't handicap the window to win down the line. I don't see them offering Hertl or Malkin 7 years, for example, but if they can be had for 5 years at 8M, I think they'd be open to that. Time will tell.

[habsisme]

22 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Here's the vibe I got from Hughes and Gorton, and it kind of mirrors what was done with the Rangers: in terms of moves made to swap around assets, trades will be made to focus on being a good team in 2-3 years. I don't personally feel like they're looking at a longer re-build window than this. I think they take next year to sort things out, and they plan on being competitive for the playoffs the year after and a contender soon after that. Not to say they'll get there, but I think that's the plan. But part of that plan, as with the Rangers, is that being good in 2-3 years doesn't mean being bad right up front. If they can sign free agents without giving up assets, I think they'll do it. If they can sign a Letang because Hughes has that connection, I think they'll be open to it. I don't think Letang will be looking for more than a 3-year deal and maybe even 2, and if you do that, I think the Habs would be willing to gamble he's still a strong player for at least the next 2 seasons. If they can go out and get Forsberg or Hertl or Malkin to a not-ridiculous contract, I don't think they would turn that down. I think they would turn down trading an Anderson for a Jamie Benn or a Patrice Bergeron. In other words, I don't think they're going to trade out of their window, but I do think they'll be open to improving the top end of their roster if they can do it in a manner that doesn't force them to give up assets and that doesn't handicap the window to win down the line. I don't see them offering Hertl or Malkin 7 years, for example, but if they can be had for 5 years at 8M, I think they'd be open to that. Time will tell.

I think you have a good read and I'm for all of it, but I really think we have to activel try to suck just one more year, especially with the talent that might be available. And for that reason I hope they sell some players and don't sign any serious free agents, at least not ones that arent going to be good 3 to 6 years from now

[habsisme]

I calculated it and if habs win EVERY SINGLE REMAING GAME they would still miss the playoffs lol

They need to be competitive and I like seeing the young players do well, but can we make some of those trades now, cause if this rebuild is going to be short we at least have to make the most of this year

we need a loss

[claremont]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Here's the vibe I got from Hughes and Gorton, and it kind of mirrors what was done with the Rangers: in terms of moves made to swap around assets, trades will be made to focus on being a good team in 2-3 years.

Too early for me to get a vibe - the next series of actions will speak volumes for me which are;

1) what value will Chiarot fetch and the timing - wait for a bidding war vs extract a reasonable return before the deadline - is it draft choices or prospects or both?

2) Will Lehkonen be traded for prospects or draft picks or both?

3) what value will Kulak bring?

4) Is there any other player contract that will get traded before the deadline - Petry, Hoffman etc. ? 

5) Signing Jordan Harris so that he burns a year of his entry level contract this year. 
 

To me those are the critical outcomes that will give us better insights as to the timing of whether this is full rebuild vs. 2-3 year competitive team to get into top 8 echelon. Qualifying as a top 16 playoff team in my mind is not contender status. 
After that, I think I’ll have better clarity for the draft and free agency. 

[electron58]

3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Subban's play has certainly dropped off considerably over the past few years. He's not worth anything close to his current contract. But... he's also a guy who's on the downside of his career, can move the puck, and can help a PP. For a team like ours where we're lacking any type of quality on the right side, he could be a stopgap until other players are ready. If you can sign him to a 1-2 year deal for 2.5-3M a year, then it could be a decent option for us and it would give him a chance to get his career back on track and get back to a city where he loves the fans. I would have said impossible with Bergevin in place and I still don't know how it would work if Gallagher were here, but his style of play fits what Gorton and Hughes have said they want, he would put fans in the seats to get Molson some of the money he's lost back, and it could be a fit for everyone.

As for the slewfoots, yes, definitely a problem and not a way of playing anyone would condone. But it doesn't mean that Xavier Ouellet or Chris Wideman or Josh Brook are a better option for us.

Agreed.  & PK wouldn't be condemned for being happy.

[habsisme]

27 minutes ago, claremont said:

Too early for me to get a vibe - the next series of actions will speak volumes for me which are;

1) what value will Chiarot fetch and the timing - wait for a bidding war vs extract a reasonable return before the deadline - is it draft choices or prospects or both?

2) Will Lehkonen be traded for prospects or draft picks or both?

3) what value will Kulak bring?

4) Is there any other player contract that will get traded before the deadline - Petry, Hoffman etc. ? 

5) Signing Jordan Harris so that he burns a year of his entry level contract this year. 
 

To me those are the critical outcomes that will give us better insights as to the timing of whether this is full rebuild vs. 2-3 year competitive team to get into top 8 echelon. Qualifying as a top 16 playoff team in my mind is not contender status. 
After that, I think I’ll have better clarity for the draft and free agency. 

I don't see what you gain in knowledge from 1, 2, 3, and 5. That's all no brainer stuff thats out of the GMs control. OF COURSE we're trading Chiarot, everyone knows it and whoever the GM is he's going to take the best offer. If the best offer is a second round pick, or the best offer is 4 first round picks, that has nothing to do with GM skill. Ditto for Lehkonen and Kulak mostly. And any GM of the Montreal Canadiens is going to want to sign Jordan Harris. There's only so much you can do to convince him. 

Only the trading of Petry, to me, would show a sign of a rebuild. The rest is just no brainers that anyone would and some tinkering here and there. Trading Hoffman doesn't mean much, he's a very peripheral player that doesn't matter much. 

I'm afraid you're both wrong and they're going to try winning as soon as next year, they're just more focused on speed and skill that the previous regime is, I don't think our hopes of a rebuild of any knd (I just wantted at least two years of top 5 draft picks and using cap space for picks and prospects) but I'm not sure we'll even get that. 

[CaptWelly]

9 hours ago, habsisme said:

I don't see what you gain in knowledge from 1, 2, 3, and 5. That's all no brainer stuff thats out of the GMs control. OF COURSE we're trading Chiarot, everyone knows it and whoever the GM is he's going to take the best offer. If the best offer is a second round pick, or the best offer is 4 first round picks, that has nothing to do with GM skill. Ditto for Lehkonen and Kulak mostly. And any GM of the Montreal Canadiens is going to want to sign Jordan Harris. There's only so much you can do to convince him. 

Only the trading of Petry, to me, would show a sign of a rebuild. The rest is just no brainers that anyone would and some tinkering here and there. Trading Hoffman doesn't mean much, he's a very peripheral player that doesn't matter much. 

I'm afraid you're both wrong and they're going to try winning as soon as next year, they're just more focused on speed and skill that the previous regime is, I don't think our hopes of a rebuild of any knd (I just wantted at least two years of top 5 draft picks and using cap space for picks and prospects) but I'm not sure we'll even get that. 

I would like to keep Lehkonen he's not that old and can be part of the future. I don't think we need a total rebuild. A lot will depend on the health of Price. After a season off does he come back refreshed and strong? How does Edmonton look coming back? I agree Chariot will be gone. Petry is such a strong skater I don't think we need to trade him. I really doubt myself the management or maybe ownership doesn't want to go through another season like this. If they did they could of just kept the last coach. 

[KRH]

Consider this - If the present management team had been in place, and if MSL had been the coach, from the beginning, or very early on this season, would we have made the playoffs?

[claremont]

10 hours ago, habsisme said:

I don't see what you gain in knowledge from 1, 2, 3, and 5. That's all no brainer stuff thats out of the GMs control. OF COURSE we're trading Chiarot, everyone knows it and whoever the GM is he's going to take the best offer. If the best offer is a second round pick, or the best offer is 4 first round picks, that has nothing to do with GM skill. Ditto for Lehkonen and Kulak mostly. And any GM of the Montreal Canadiens is going to want to sign Jordan Harris. There's only so much you can do to convince him. 

Only the trading of Petry, to me, would show a sign of a rebuild. The rest is just no brainers that anyone would and some tinkering here and there. Trading Hoffman doesn't mean much, he's a very peripheral player that doesn't matter much. 

I'm afraid you're both wrong and they're going to try winning as soon as next year, they're just more focused on speed and skill that the previous regime is, I don't think our hopes of a rebuild of any knd (I just wantted at least two years of top 5 draft picks and using cap space for picks and prospects) but I'm not sure we'll even get that. 

What i gain in knowledge from 1, 2, 3 and 5 is a sense of timing - whether it is long term year 3-4 or moderate term - competitive in year 2 (2023-4) to answer that question.  The Toffoli trade seemed to indicate the long term 3-4 years as the late first round pick for 2022 is not likely to be ready until 2023-4 and Heineman is not coming until 2023-4 unless he is able to break his Swedish 2 year commitment. That is the only factual evidence so far of a vibe indicator despite "feelings, sentiments, talking head interviews etc."

Out of the GM's control? On #1 - Chiarot, there are supposedly multiple offers so Hughes has some control over that selection unless you believe there are few offers? Out of the GM's control and Nothing to do with GM skill? - so he's just a captured GM and has NO negotiating inputs? Hughes can increase the likelihood of offers by using the lever of retaining up to 50% of Chiarot's salary to appeal to cap constrained teams. I would argue that Hughes has DECISION control on assessing the TIMING of when the value received (2023 picks, 2022 draft picks vs. 2020 or 2021 prospects more ready) fits the objective of a long term rebuild or the competitive year 2 window. If this trade value is 2023 or 2022 picks which he believes is the best value, then it gives more insight that it is a longer term rebuild consistent with the Toffoli trade. 

#2 Lehkonen - Out of the GM's control? Hughes has the power and decision to retain Lehkonen. If he doesn't feel the value equation of trade offers is consistent with their TIMING window, then Lehkonen is kept, and would provide more insight that it is a moderate term competitive in year 2 and Lehkonen could be part of the core for a potential resign.  Alternatively the trade assets received for Lehkonen will provide more evidence on the TIMING of their plan

#3 Kulak - same argument but much lesser degree - there are not as many offers for Kulak

#5 - Jordan Harris - Part of a GM's Control is Negotiating tactics - if he can't convince Jordan Harris that he has a TIMING plan / vision in place for Jordan's development and fit with the Habs, how is he going to convince other free agents or expiring contracts to stay with the cultural vision?

What I believe we gain in knowledge from these transactions #1-5 is whether we lean towards the Arizona Coyote model of full on longer term rebuild (dump assets for draft picks), or a more moderate reset (acquire more evolved prospects), to be competitive 2 years out.  

[habsisme]

7 minutes ago, claremont said:

What i gain in knowledge from 1, 2, 3 and 5 is a sense of timing - whether it is long term year 3-4 or moderate term - competitive in year 2 (2023-4) to answer that question.  The Toffoli trade seemed to indicate the long term 3-4 years as the late first round pick for 2022 is not likely to be ready until 2023-4 and Heineman is not coming until 2023-4 unless he is able to break his Swedish 2 year commitment. That is the only factual evidence so far of a vibe indicator despite "feelings, sentiments, talking head interviews etc."

Out of the GM's control? On #1 - Chiarot, there are supposedly multiple offers so Hughes has some control over that selection unless you believe there are few offers? Out of the GM's control and Nothing to do with GM skill? - so he's just a captured GM and has NO negotiating inputs? Hughes can increase the likelihood of offers by using the lever of retaining up to 50% of Chiarot's salary to appeal to cap constrained teams. I would argue that Hughes has DECISION control on assessing the TIMING of when the value received (2023 picks, 2022 draft picks vs. 2020 or 2021 prospects more ready) fits the objective of a long term rebuild or the competitive year 2 window. If this trade value is 2023 or 2022 picks which he believes is the best value, then it gives more insight that it is a longer term rebuild consistent with the Toffoli trade. 

#2 Lehkonen - Out of the GM's control? Hughes has the power and decision to retain Lehkonen. If he doesn't feel the value equation of trade offers is consistent with their TIMING window, then Lehkonen is kept, and would provide more insight that it is a moderate term competitive in year 2 and Lehkonen could be part of the core for a potential resign.  Alternatively the trade assets received for Lehkonen will provide more evidence on the TIMING of their plan

#3 Kulak - same argument but much lesser degree - there are not as many offers for Kulak

#5 - Jordan Harris - Part of a GM's Control is Negotiating tactics - if he can't convince Jordan Harris that he has a TIMING plan / vision in place for Jordan's development and fit with the Habs, how is he going to convince other free agents or expiring contracts to stay with the cultural vision?

What I believe we gain in knowledge from these transactions #1-5 is whether we lean towards the Arizona Coyote model of full on longer term rebuild (dump assets for draft picks), or a more moderate reset (acquire more evolved prospects), to be competitive 2 years out.  

See to me everything your saying is just something any GM will do. And while yes you might be able to negotiate the year of the picks. Youre going to start with your best offer and try to get a little more. That's just how it works. This isn't be a gm mode where every pick and prospect and player is available. 

I didn't like the Toffoli trade but I'm not stupid, I know he got thr best deal available. The only thing to debate is wether or not they should have traded him not really if the return was good enough, obviously it was the best available

Convincing players to stay here or come here is not fair to put on the GM and hiring people that never wore a habs jersey and sometimes outright rejected like Briere isn't helping. We've basically conceded that no one wants to play for us so we won't even be insulted by it.  

So far this GM looks better when it comes to skill but I'm still hoping its not too far in the other direction cause i don't want to be Toronto. But in terms of rebuilds and windows, it feels to me that its the same as with Bergevin which is what I said would happen except a lower quality GM. They just wanna get a little younger and faster. They are not actually rebuilding

 

[BigTed3]

11 hours ago, claremont said:

Too early for me to get a vibe - the next series of actions will speak volumes for me which are;

1) what value will Chiarot fetch and the timing - wait for a bidding war vs extract a reasonable return before the deadline - is it draft choices or prospects or both?

2) Will Lehkonen be traded for prospects or draft picks or both?

3) what value will Kulak bring?

4) Is there any other player contract that will get traded before the deadline - Petry, Hoffman etc. ? 

5) Signing Jordan Harris so that he burns a year of his entry level contract this year. 
 

To me those are the critical outcomes that will give us better insights as to the timing of whether this is full rebuild vs. 2-3 year competitive team to get into top 8 echelon. Qualifying as a top 16 playoff team in my mind is not contender status. 
After that, I think I’ll have better clarity for the draft and free agency. 

1. Chiarot should fetch at least a 1st and another piece. That said, it could be a recent 1st round pick plus another piece. Personally, I still feel like St. Louis is the most likely to go in on Chiarot and pay, as they have a good team but with many core players in the 29-32 age range and a glaring hole on left D. They have Faulk and Parayko on the right and they have only Krug on the left really. They also like D men who play Chiarot's style, but they can't go into the playoffs with Scandella and Walman and Bortuzzo as their depth. If I'm the Habs, the ask is more likely to be centered around Zachary Bolduc than a 2022 1st, given Hughes' desire to get more NHL-ready returns and the fact St. Louis has already traded away their 2022 2nd rounder. So my guess is that a deal could be Chiarot for Bolduc and a 3rd or 4th rounder OR Chiarot and a mid-round pick for a young D man like Scott Perunovich + a 2023 1st rounder.

2. There are a number of teams interested in Lehkonen, including the Rangers, Caps, and Avs. Unlike Chiarot, we retain Lehkonen's rights as an RFA, so we're only making a move here if we feel the offer blows us away. I have to feel here like the Rangers are the favorite to win his services. Why? One, because they have a need to replace Samuel Blais in the line-up and two because the Habs' brass knows the Rangers' prospect pool well and maybe has a guy or two they wouldn't mind bringing over. I mentioned a day or two ago that Georgiev could be a target as a tandem goalie if Samsonov falls through, and I would have guessed discussions with the Caps for Samsonov probably centered around Lehkonen going the other way, so I'd have to wonder if any type of deal (be it with the Caps or Rangers) might feature us getting a younger goalie back in exchange for a package that includes Lehkonen and Jake Allen. For this to happen, I think we'll need to wait and see if/when Allen comes back and what shape he's in, so I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see action on Lehkonen until Allen returns. I think Lehkonen's value is clearly a 1st round equivalent plus another high-end piece and Allen's is probably in the range of a 2nd rounder or equivalent prospect, albeit Kuemper (whose career stats mirror Allen's very well) garnered way more. So I think the combined return here would have to be big for us to pull the trigger. For a deal with the Rangers, I could see us asking for Georgiev, a 1st rounder, and one of Schneider, Kravtsov, Othmann, or Lundkvist. For a deal with the Caps, it could be Lehkonen and Allen for Samsonov, a 1st rounder, and one of Hendrix Lapierre or Vincent Iorio.

3. Kulak is going to have a more limited number of teams after him because he flies a bit under the radar, but he's an advanced stats darling. Great skater, good puck mover, and superior possession stats. He and Petry have made one of the top advanced-metric pairings over the past few years in the entire NHL. So I expect teams that believe in advanced metrics and puck movement to be at the top of the pile: Carolina, Tampa, Toronto, LA, Nashville, Edmonton, maybe Minnesota. Ultimately, I think he's the type of player a team will expect to get for a draft pick, so I can see the return being something along the lines of a 3rd rounder.

4. I think Perreault will go, not necessarily for more than a mid-round pick, but just because he's a playoff-type contributor who is on an expiring contract. He'll be a depth acquisition for someone. I mentioned Allen possibly going if he's back and healthy on time. Wideman is another guy who could be dealt, also as an upcoming UFA. I don't think any of these players are in the Habs' long-term plans. There are others like Hoffman, Gallagher, Petry, Edmundson, Dvorak, and Drouin who maybe don't figure in the Habs long-term plans, but I'm not sure any will move at this deadline.

5. I think it's looking more optimistic that we'll sign Harris. If we do, it'll be this season and we'll burn a year. If he doesn't sign once his college season is over, not sure why he would sign with us in the off-season. At that point, he can just choose where he wants to play. There's no advantage to him to waiting any longer, as he's out of college eligibility. But I think his connections to Hughes and St. Louis, the holes on our defence to give him opportunity, and getting to play in an offensive system under MSL could sway him to sign.

[claremont]

27 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

1. Chiarot should fetch at least a 1st and another piece. That said, it could be a recent 1st round pick plus another piece. Personally, I still feel like St. Louis is the most likely to go in on Chiarot and pay, as they have a good team but with many core players in the 29-32 age range and a glaring hole on left D. They have Faulk and Parayko on the right and they have only Krug on the left really. They also like D men who play Chiarot's style, but they can't go into the playoffs with Scandella and Walman and Bortuzzo as their depth. If I'm the Habs, the ask is more likely to be centered around Zachary Bolduc than a 2022 1st, given Hughes' desire to get more NHL-ready returns and the fact St. Louis has already traded away their 2022 2nd rounder. So my guess is that a deal could be Chiarot for Bolduc and a 3rd or 4th rounder OR Chiarot and a mid-round pick for a young D man like Scott Perunovich + a 2023 1st rounder.

2. There are a number of teams interested in Lehkonen, including the Rangers, Caps, and Avs. Unlike Chiarot, we retain Lehkonen's rights as an RFA, so we're only making a move here if we feel the offer blows us away. I have to feel here like the Rangers are the favorite to win his services. Why? One, because they have a need to replace Samuel Blais in the line-up and two because the Habs' brass knows the Rangers' prospect pool well and maybe has a guy or two they wouldn't mind bringing over. I mentioned a day or two ago that Georgiev could be a target as a tandem goalie if Samsonov falls through, and I would have guessed discussions with the Caps for Samsonov probably centered around Lehkonen going the other way, so I'd have to wonder if any type of deal (be it with the Caps or Rangers) might feature us getting a younger goalie back in exchange for a package that includes Lehkonen and Jake Allen. For this to happen, I think we'll need to wait and see if/when Allen comes back and what shape he's in, so I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see action on Lehkonen until Allen returns. I think Lehkonen's value is clearly a 1st round equivalent plus another high-end piece and Allen's is probably in the range of a 2nd rounder or equivalent prospect, albeit Kuemper (whose career stats mirror Allen's very well) garnered way more. So I think the combined return here would have to be big for us to pull the trigger. For a deal with the Rangers, I could see us asking for Georgiev, a 1st rounder, and one of Schneider, Kravtsov, Othmann, or Lundkvist. For a deal with the Caps, it could be Lehkonen and Allen for Samsonov, a 1st rounder, and one of Hendrix Lapierre or Vincent Iorio.

3. Kulak is going to have a more limited number of teams after him because he flies a bit under the radar, but he's an advanced stats darling. Great skater, good puck mover, and superior possession stats. He and Petry have made one of the top advanced-metric pairings over the past few years in the entire NHL. So I expect teams that believe in advanced metrics and puck movement to be at the top of the pile: Carolina, Tampa, Toronto, LA, Nashville, Edmonton, maybe Minnesota. Ultimately, I think he's the type of player a team will expect to get for a draft pick, so I can see the return being something along the lines of a 3rd rounder.

4. I think Perreault will go, not necessarily for more than a mid-round pick, but just because he's a playoff-type contributor who is on an expiring contract. He'll be a depth acquisition for someone. I mentioned Allen possibly going if he's back and healthy on time. Wideman is another guy who could be dealt, also as an upcoming UFA. I don't think any of these players are in the Habs' long-term plans. There are others like Hoffman, Gallagher, Petry, Edmundson, Dvorak, and Drouin who maybe don't figure in the Habs long-term plans, but I'm not sure any will move at this deadline.

5. I think it's looking more optimistic that we'll sign Harris. If we do, it'll be this season and we'll burn a year. If he doesn't sign once his college season is over, not sure why he would sign with us in the off-season. At that point, he can just choose where he wants to play. There's no advantage to him to waiting any longer, as he's out of college eligibility. But I think his connections to Hughes and St. Louis, the holes on our defence to give him opportunity, and getting to play in an offensive system under MSL could sway him to sign.

I would agree with your summary. I never had really thought of Allen being a tradeable piece but he is a very affordable goalie, capable of being the #1 for short stretches. He will be 32 entering next season on an affordable contract even if we had to retain small salary for this season on him (who cares), but Jake won't fit in a rebuild / reset scenario.  Makes sense to try to package Allen with Lehkonen. 

[habsisme]

5 minutes ago, claremont said:

I would agree with your summary. I never had really thought of Allen being a tradeable piece but he is a very affordable goalie, capable of being the #1 for short stretches. He will be 32 entering next season on an affordable contract even if we had to retain small salary for this season on him (who cares), but Jake won't fit in a rebuild / reset scenario.  Makes sense to try to package Allen with Lehkonen. 

I think Allen is worth a first myself, especially if we retain salary, otherwise I wouldn't move unless I was certain Price was playing this year

[AH64]

15 hours ago, habsisme said:

he donated 10 million dollars and wasnt nominated for the King Clancy. I don't know who were the teams but there was a big number of players that had some issue with PK. Anyway, I'm on team Gallagher every time

it was a promise to raise 10 million. i dont think he himself gave 10 million.

[habsisme]

12 minutes ago, AH64 said:

it was a promise to raise 10 million. i dont think he himself gave 10 million.

no, he's raising and giving, but that's still a huge commitment, I bet he's paying a good amount of it. No athlete has ever done so much monetarily. He woud have won the Clancy EASILY if he had been nominated by his teammates. I always go back to that. They clearly didn't like him cause frankly, that was a mean thing to not nominate him.