BigTed3 Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 If I had carte blanche to be able to move out anyone I wanted, this is the framework that I would use to build my line-up going forward into next year: Caufield-Suzuki-Anderson XXX - XXX - Ylonen Drouin-Dvorak-Armia Poehling-Evans-Lehkonen (Two of Pitlick, Vejdemo or RHP) I'd leave that 1st line alone for now, they seem to be gelling well together. I'm not convinced Drouin, Dvorak, nor Armia are great solutions long-term, but I also think all three have the potential to be better than they have been, and Drouin plays well with a bigger guy on the opposite wing who will do the dirty work to get him pucks. All three could benefit from playing together down the line-up and getting easier match-ups. If we retain Lehkonen, he and Evans are a nice duo together and form two thirds of my checking line. I don't see room for Poehling at center unless Dvorak is moved, so he slides onto the wing. Pitlick, Vejdemo, and RHP battle for the 13th and 14th forward spots IMO. I'd try my best to dump Gallagher and Hoffman and free up 11M in cap space, and I'd move Byron too. Gallagher and Byron still have utility, but I don't think they're worth their salaries, whereas I don't see much value in Hoffman. Again, other deals could be made during/after next season to move along any of Dvorak, Drouin, Armia, or Lehkonen, but I'd start next year with this line-up if we could find a way to move the other contracts. Ultimately, the big question is who we find to fill the other top 6 roles. This is where you could look at trying to sign one big name like Hertl, Forsberg, Trocheck, or Malkin and then maybe have your top 5 pick (Wright, Savoie, Cooley, Slafkovsky, Kemell, etc.) get a look for the other spot. If you fail to fill those, then you slide Poehling up to center with Ylonen, you put Pitlick onto the Evans line and you make do with another year of re-building. On D, it's almost a full re-tool here. Chiarot, Wideman, and Niku are all out. Kulak could also be out, but the current regime seems to like him more and he's been a good partner for Petry, himself a question mark. So the framework here is quite up in the air, but I think in general, we're looking at Romanov on the left and potentially Harris or Guhle, depending on how things play out and who is most ready. For now, I'll assume Guhle and Norlinder need time in Laval and Harris is the most NHL-ready if he signs. So we could be looking at Romanov- XXX Kulak-Petry Harris-XXX Schuenemann I'd ideally want to get rid of Savard, even if it's via buyout, and I personally like Kulak more than Edmundson (not to mention he should be cheaper) as a partner to Petry, so if we can re-sign Kulak for 1 year, 2.5M, I'd do it and try to move Ed. There's hence a need for two right-handed D men in the line-up. Assuming Weber is still considered done, then we've discussed how Letang, Subban, or Klingberg could all be fill-ins next to Romanov on a short-term basis. Ristolainen is the only other capable RHD available and he's probably not worth what he'll be asking for. All that to say two things: 1. The D remains the weakest part of the line-up and no matter what tinkering or signing we do up front, we're not improving our ability to make the playoffs until we fix the D. 2. Trading Petry isn't as feasible as we might like it to be. I think you ultimately need to look at moving him over the next year or two, but MB did a horrible job of maintaining organizational depth there, so I think we're probably going to be looking at a trade to bolster that position going forward. Lastly, in goal, we have a number of options going forward, but it really all hinges on Price's health. If he's forced to retire, then that's one path that's set for us. If not, then he probably needs to play his way back to showing he can be a force again, after which we could explore a trade. Allen is likely done here if not this year than next. He's an impending UFA next season and on a good contract, so we should be able to move him for a pick, prospect, or younger NHL goalie. Either way, Montembeault is a back-up at best and Primeau isn't ready. So we'll need to be creative here as well to find a new solution in net going forward. Whether it's in goal or on D or for our top 6, you can clearly see the need to draft well the next two years and/or use our current trade chips to fill those holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HabsRuleForever Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 Calgary took McNiven for future considerations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jennifer_rocket Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, HabsRuleForever said: Calgary took McNiven for future considerations. Good luck to him. He was being held back here for a long time. Hope he gets a shot with Calgary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maas_art Posted March 2, 2022 Report Share Posted March 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, HabsRuleForever said: Calgary took McNiven for future considerations. Good for McNiven - dont think he would have gotten any playing time with this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claremont Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 hours ago, BigTed3 said: If I had carte blanche to be able to move out anyone I wanted, this is the framework that I would use to build my line-up going forward into next year: Caufield-Suzuki-Anderson XXX - XXX - Ylonen Drouin-Dvorak-Armia Poehling-Evans-Lehkonen (Two of Pitlick, Vejdemo or RHP) I'd leave that 1st line alone for now, they seem to be gelling well together. I'm not convinced Drouin, Dvorak, nor Armia are great solutions long-term, but I also think all three have the potential to be better than they have been, and Drouin plays well with a bigger guy on the opposite wing who will do the dirty work to get him pucks. All three could benefit from playing together down the line-up and getting easier match-ups. If we retain Lehkonen, he and Evans are a nice duo together and form two thirds of my checking line. I don't see room for Poehling at center unless Dvorak is moved, so he slides onto the wing. Pitlick, Vejdemo, and RHP battle for the 13th and 14th forward spots IMO. I'd try my best to dump Gallagher and Hoffman and free up 11M in cap space, and I'd move Byron too. Gallagher and Byron still have utility, but I don't think they're worth their salaries, whereas I don't see much value in Hoffman. Again, other deals could be made during/after next season to move along any of Dvorak, Drouin, Armia, or Lehkonen, but I'd start next year with this line-up if we could find a way to move the other contracts. Ultimately, the big question is who we find to fill the other top 6 roles. This is where you could look at trying to sign one big name like Hertl, Forsberg, Trocheck, or Malkin and then maybe have your top 5 pick (Wright, Savoie, Cooley, Slafkovsky, Kemell, etc.) get a look for the other spot. If you fail to fill those, then you slide Poehling up to center with Ylonen, you put Pitlick onto the Evans line and you make do with another year of re-building. On D, it's almost a full re-tool here. Chiarot, Wideman, and Niku are all out. Kulak could also be out, but the current regime seems to like him more and he's been a good partner for Petry, himself a question mark. So the framework here is quite up in the air, but I think in general, we're looking at Romanov on the left and potentially Harris or Guhle, depending on how things play out and who is most ready. For now, I'll assume Guhle and Norlinder need time in Laval and Harris is the most NHL-ready if he signs. So we could be looking at Romanov- XXX Kulak-Petry Harris-XXX Schuenemann I'd ideally want to get rid of Savard, even if it's via buyout, and I personally like Kulak more than Edmundson (not to mention he should be cheaper) as a partner to Petry, so if we can re-sign Kulak for 1 year, 2.5M, I'd do it and try to move Ed. There's hence a need for two right-handed D men in the line-up. Assuming Weber is still considered done, then we've discussed how Letang, Subban, or Klingberg could all be fill-ins next to Romanov on a short-term basis. Ristolainen is the only other capable RHD available and he's probably not worth what he'll be asking for. All that to say two things: 1. The D remains the weakest part of the line-up and no matter what tinkering or signing we do up front, we're not improving our ability to make the playoffs until we fix the D. 2. Trading Petry isn't as feasible as we might like it to be. I think you ultimately need to look at moving him over the next year or two, but MB did a horrible job of maintaining organizational depth there, so I think we're probably going to be looking at a trade to bolster that position going forward. Lastly, in goal, we have a number of options going forward, but it really all hinges on Price's health. If he's forced to retire, then that's one path that's set for us. If not, then he probably needs to play his way back to showing he can be a force again, after which we could explore a trade. Allen is likely done here if not this year than next. He's an impending UFA next season and on a good contract, so we should be able to move him for a pick, prospect, or younger NHL goalie. Either way, Montembeault is a back-up at best and Primeau isn't ready. So we'll need to be creative here as well to find a new solution in net going forward. Whether it's in goal or on D or for our top 6, you can clearly see the need to draft well the next two years and/or use our current trade chips to fill those holes. I would tweak your guidance / expectations as follows: 1) if we are going for more of a refresh / reset / rebuild, we need a minimum of 3 rookies to crack that lineup - Ylonen is one, It is going to be a battle between RHP and Joshua Roy for a LW spot - RHP offers that Gallagher Motor, Roy offers more scoring, playmaking and physical size. Guhle IMO will get a long look at possibly the right side as he's that good. Harris for the left side. Norlinder's regression (11 games no points with Frolunda) concerns me. Vjedemo has stalled for me. 2) Lehkonen - I think he is traded and we don't count on him. It's asking a lot of management to duck salaries on all 3 of Gallagher (RW), Hoffman (LW/RW), and Byron (LW/RW) - If we could unload 1, it's a step forward, if we could unload 2 it is a bonus. I know you qualified this with carte blanche but By deduction and difficulty, Gallagher starts on the right side in Armia's spot and Armia drops down. 3) Edmundson has a 10 team NTC. Need to see his form on return from back injury to assess selling him at beyond low value but again, moving him could be difficult. I say Joel starts on the left side with Petry - Kulak I am not convinced he is retained. I like the idea of Letang as a free agent pickup for the RHD 4) Free agents - Given the reset / rebuild, I believe Hughes will have trouble convincing Hertl - unless it is money and he can convince Hertl that the team will be competitive in year 2 of his contract. Letang similar but Letang has tasted winning and one would think he would still need convincing. Forsberg is a no for me unless Gallagher could be moved. 5) Draft picks - Unless it is Wright or Kemell, highly unlikely one of them steps into a roster spot. 6) Goal - Primeau had a horrible audition in Ducharme's mess of a system - his confidence has to be broken so agree with you he is not ready. Yes big dependency on Price or an Allen trade for a Samsonov / Georgiev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTed3 Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, claremont said: I would tweak your guidance / expectations as follows: 1) if we are going for more of a refresh / reset / rebuild, we need a minimum of 3 rookies to crack that lineup - Ylonen is one, It is going to be a battle between RHP and Joshua Roy for a LW spot - RHP offers that Gallagher Motor, Roy offers more scoring, playmaking and physical size. Guhle IMO will get a long look at possibly the right side as he's that good. Harris for the left side. Norlinder's regression (11 games no points with Frolunda) concerns me. Vjedemo has stalled for me. 2) Lehkonen - I think he is traded and we don't count on him. It's asking a lot of management to duck salaries on all 3 of Gallagher (RW), Hoffman (LW/RW), and Byron (LW/RW) - If we could unload 1, it's a step forward, if we could unload 2 it is a bonus. I know you qualified this with carte blanche but By deduction and difficulty, Gallagher starts on the right side in Armia's spot and Armia drops down. 3) Edmundson has a 10 team NTC. Need to see his form on return from back injury to assess selling him at beyond low value but again, moving him could be difficult. I say Joel starts on the left side with Petry - Kulak I am not convinced he is retained. I like the idea of Letang as a free agent pickup for the RHD 4) Free agents - Given the reset / rebuild, I believe Hughes will have trouble convincing Hertl - unless it is money and he can convince Hertl that the team will be competitive in year 2 of his contract. Letang similar but Letang has tasted winning and one would think he would still need convincing. Forsberg is a no for me unless Gallagher could be moved. 5) Draft picks - Unless it is Wright or Kemell, highly unlikely one of them steps into a roster spot. 6) Goal - Primeau had a horrible audition in Ducharme's mess of a system - his confidence has to be broken so agree with you he is not ready. Yes big dependency on Price or an Allen trade for a Samsonov / Georgiev 1. Rookie-wirse, I think we'll see Ylonen get a good look. I think it's one of Harris, Norlinder, or Guhle next year on the left side of the D and my guess is Harris will have the inside edge if he signs here. And I think RHP can vie for that 12th-13th forward spot. Other rookies will get a shot during the season with injuries and call-ups and so on. I think Guhle could be one of those. I don't think they'll be planning on rushing Guhle along and I think Roy is going to the AHL for two years before he gets a shot in the bigs, if he ever does. Yes, he's having a great year in the Q, but he's got a lot of work to do before he becomes pro-ready. Points don't tell the whole story about how well he can keep pace with the NHL game, read positioning here, and understand the system. Vejdemo hasn't stalled in the least for me. He was always a player headed for 4th line duty and he did fairly well in his stint here. I think he simply lacked a look, but he was better than Dauphin when up (and I've explained why I think Dauphin is here to fill the Francophone requirement more than anything). 2. I think Lehkonen will be traded eventually too, but I think a lot comes down to what contract he's asking for and what Hughes can do to dump other salaries at this deadline. There isn't a rush to have to trade Lehkonen, I just think the offers coming in will be too good to pass up given the contract situation. My line-up wasn't meant to reflect what I think will happen, it was meant to reflect what I would considering doing if I were Hughes and I had suitors for any contract I wanted to get rid of. 3. Likewise, I think Edmundson will be back next year and I think we'll likely be running something like Edmundson-Petry (the latter of whom is also probably here at least til the off-season and maybe into next year), Romanov-UFA (maybe Letang), and Harris-Savard. 4. I also doubt any of Hertl, Forsberg, Malkin come here. I think Letang has the highest chance of the bigger UFAs just because of the hometown and agent connections. 5. Slafkovsky IMO steps into an NHL line-up easily next year. He's huge, he's already playing men. If he's the pick, I don't see why he wouldn't be here. I could also see Brad Lambert getting a look somewhere, maybe Yurov or Miroschnichenko if they make it to North America (I could see them having outs to go back to Russia if not in the NHL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 Top European, College and Junior free agents Corey Pronman of The Athletic: Ranking that top European, College and Junior free agents. Projected NHL Players 1. Andrei Kuzmenko – LW – SKA KHL 2. Ben Meyers – C –Minnesota Big Ten A chance to play in the NHL 3. Jake Livingstone – RHD – Minnesota State NCHA 4. Bobby Trivigno – LW –UMass HE 5 Sergei Tolchinsky-LW-Avangard KHL 6. Niko Ojamaki – RW – Podolsk KHL 7. Jordan Fransca – C – Kingston OHL signed = Pittsburg Penguins 8. Max Veronneau-RW – Leksands SHL 9. Bennett MacArthur – LW – Acadie-Bathurst QMJHL signed = Tampa Bay Lightening 10. Brandon Bussi-G-W. Mich. NCHC 11. Riese Gaber-RW-N. Dakota NCHC 12. Daniil Vovchenko-LW-Severstal KHL 13. Taylor Gauthier-G-Portland WHL signed = Pittsburg Penguins 14. Strauss Mann – G – Skelleftea SHL 15. Ethen Frank-RW-W. Michigan NCHC 16. Marc McLaughlin – C – Western Michigan HE 17. Parker Ford-C-Providence HE Players who could also be signed this offseason Trenton Bliss-C-Michigan Tech WCHA Corey Andonovski-RW-Princeton ECAC Jacob Bengtsson – LHD – Lake Superior State WCHA Tye Kartye – C – Sault Ste. Marie OHL signed = Seattle Kraken Henrik Rybinski – C – Seattle WHL signed = Washington Capitals Nathan Staios – LHD – Hamilton OHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme-1 Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 On 3/1/2022 at 3:15 PM, BigTed3 said: I really don't think they want Gallagher as captain. They might feel inclined to do it, but if they felt strongly about a veteran like Gallagher or Petry or Chiarot being captain this year, they would have just done it. The fact they didn't means they wanted to wait for someone to emerge. My guess is that they wanted Suzuki to get another year of experience and see if he could be an on-ice leader this season. I think he's the favorite going forward. If not him, then I think Anderson gets some consideration. I could also see them bringing in a temporary captain next year to bridge to Suzuki... if they sign someone like Letang, Bergeron, Giroux, etc. I don't think they'll do this, but I also don't see a lot of in-house candidates who are ready. I suspect the bridge to Suzuki just ends up being Weber: technically we still have a captain signed for 4 more seasons after this one. The concern I'd have is in Montreal there is so much media pressure put on the captain, especially over the next few years when the team may not be very good. Unless there is a super obvious candidate (like Gionta or Weber, who were league veterans that had relatively smooth captaincies) I'd probably just stick with "Weber's out captain" for the foreseeable future. The team will know who its leaders are, no need to put a target on anyone's back for the media. This is also the reason I'm in no rush to promote Suzuki. Although he's probably not truly the team leader yet, it's not unusual to promote a star player before they're ready with the hope they'll grow into the role. I might consider doing that in Florida, but Suzuki already has more than enough pressure on him. I don't remember all of the specifics, but Pacioretty's captaincy seemed to be a bit of a disaster. And while Koivu was a great captain and handled the noise well, he had to deal with a lot of extra crap due to wearing the C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTed3 Posted March 3, 2022 Report Share Posted March 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Graeme-1 said: I suspect the bridge to Suzuki just ends up being Weber: technically we still have a captain signed for 4 more seasons after this one. The concern I'd have is in Montreal there is so much media pressure put on the captain, especially over the next few years when the team may not be very good. Unless there is a super obvious candidate (like Gionta or Weber, who were league veterans that had relatively smooth captaincies) I'd probably just stick with "Weber's out captain" for the foreseeable future. The team will know who its leaders are, no need to put a target on anyone's back for the media. This is also the reason I'm in no rush to promote Suzuki. Although he's probably not truly the team leader yet, it's not unusual to promote a star player before they're ready with the hope they'll grow into the role. I might consider doing that in Florida, but Suzuki already has more than enough pressure on him. I don't remember all of the specifics, but Pacioretty's captaincy seemed to be a bit of a disaster. And while Koivu was a great captain and handled the noise well, he had to deal with a lot of extra crap due to wearing the C. Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I thought the team announced there would be a captain next year. I think it might have been Gorton who said it. Maybe they're truly still waiting to see if Weber can come back, but I think they're prepared to move on if he's truly done next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habsisme Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Graeme-1 said: I suspect the bridge to Suzuki just ends up being Weber: technically we still have a captain signed for 4 more seasons after this one. The concern I'd have is in Montreal there is so much media pressure put on the captain, especially over the next few years when the team may not be very good. Unless there is a super obvious candidate (like Gionta or Weber, who were league veterans that had relatively smooth captaincies) I'd probably just stick with "Weber's out captain" for the foreseeable future. The team will know who its leaders are, no need to put a target on anyone's back for the media. This is also the reason I'm in no rush to promote Suzuki. Although he's probably not truly the team leader yet, it's not unusual to promote a star player before they're ready with the hope they'll grow into the role. I might consider doing that in Florida, but Suzuki already has more than enough pressure on him. I don't remember all of the specifics, but Pacioretty's captaincy seemed to be a bit of a disaster. And while Koivu was a great captain and handled the noise well, he had to deal with a lot of extra crap due to wearing the C. yeah I agree. I don't want to put that pressure on Suzuki until we're at least winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 49 minutes ago, BigTed3 said: Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I thought the team announced there would be a captain next year. I think it might have been Gorton who said it. Maybe they're truly still waiting to see if Weber can come back, but I think they're prepared to move on if he's truly done next season. You remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme-1 Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 1 hour ago, BigTed3 said: Maybe I'm remembering incorrectly, but I thought the team announced there would be a captain next year. I think it might have been Gorton who said it. Maybe they're truly still waiting to see if Weber can come back, but I think they're prepared to move on if he's truly done next season. Oh I didn't hear that. Did they clarify the captain will play at least one game (technically we have a captain this year)? If there's an obvious veteran candidate as a stop gap I'm fine with it, just don't see any real urgency and not sure there is that obvious candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTed3 Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, Graeme-1 said: Oh I didn't hear that. Did they clarify the captain will play at least one game (technically we have a captain this year)? If there's an obvious veteran candidate as a stop gap I'm fine with it, just don't see any real urgency and not sure there is that obvious candidate. The way it was phrased, as I remember, kind of alluded to the fact we didn't have a captain this year and that next year we would... so sort of implied that it wouldn't be Weber (or that Weber would be back). I took it as there would be a captain on the ice and in the locker room and that they weren't doing a 2nd year of what we did this season. I have a tough time picturing it being anyone we currently have on defence, and of the forwards, the only notable candidates would seem to be Suzuki, Gallagher, Anderson, Byron, and Lehkonen. I think they either go right to Suzuki (as many teams have tended to do, going with their young star as captain and as we did in the past with Koivu) or they go to Byron as a short-term fix. Assuming they plan on keeping Byron for two years, he's probably the best fit in terms of being a guy who gives an effort every night, seems to be a leader in the locker room (might take Lehkonen out of the running), and isn't prone to tantrums or pissing off the refs the way Gallagher does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maas_art Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 I thought this was an interesting stat. No surprise that Bergeron leads as defensive forward but Nick and Lekhs in the top 10... pretty sweet. HuGo (thats my new name for Hughes and Gorton) have a difficult decision to make about Lekhs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habsisme Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, maas_art said: I thought this was an interesting stat. No surprise that Bergeron leads as defensive forward but Nick and Lekhs in the top 10... pretty sweet. HuGo (thats my new name for Hughes and Gorton) have a difficult decision to make about Lekhs. These advanced stats are lacking if the best defensive players are worth less than 1 game above replacement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 4, 2022 Report Share Posted March 4, 2022 Andrew Hammond suffered a lower-body injury against Calgary and was placed on injured reserve. Cayden Primeau was recalled on an emergency basis and will join the team in Edmonton today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigTed3 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 Renaud Lavoie says Edmundson is highly probable to play on Wednesday in Vancouver. So Habs would need to move a D man out... Clague is the obvious choice, but could also mean the timing is right between this game and next one to move either Chiarot or Kulak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_T_L Posted March 6, 2022 Author Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 23 minutes ago, BigTed3 said: Renaud Lavoie says Edmundson is highly probable to play on Wednesday in Vancouver. So Habs would need to move a D man out... Clague is the obvious choice, but could also mean the timing is right between this game and next one to move either Chiarot or Kulak. Unless he gets hurt in tomorrow's practice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 Ben Chiarot leading Habs' defensemen in scoring with 7 goals & 9 assists, for 16 total points. With minimum of 30 games played, Artturri Lehkonen leads team in +/- with 0 in 53 games. Next closest----------Joel Armia -7/40, Brett Kulak -8/50 & Brendan Gallagher -8/38, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 26. Philadelphia 55 17 28 10 44 27. Buffalo 56 18 30 8 44 28. Ottawa 54 19 30 5 43 29. New Jersey 55 19 31 5 43 30. Seattle 57 17 35 5 39 31. Montreal 56 15 34 7 37 32. Arizona 55 16 35 4 36 Seattle next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
habsisme Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 5 minutes ago, electron58 said: 26. Philadelphia 55 17 28 10 44 27. Buffalo 56 18 30 8 44 28. Ottawa 54 19 30 5 43 29. New Jersey 55 19 31 5 43 30. Seattle 57 17 35 5 39 31. Montreal 56 15 34 7 37 32. Arizona 55 16 35 4 36 Seattle next! a top 5 pick is no longer a certainty Could this team have won the cup last year had Ducharme not been the coach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 Just now, habsisme said: a top 5 pick is no longer a certainty Could this team have won the cup last year had Ducharme not been the coach? Yeah. We don't want to go there. Sadly though, makes you wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme-1 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 On 3/4/2022 at 12:08 PM, habsisme said: These advanced stats are lacking if the best defensive players are worth less than 1 game above replacement I'm not an analytics expert, but this actually doesn't seem that shocking to me. If I'm understanding that stat right, it's not accounting for the player as a whole, only their defense. Bergeron is so valuable largely because he can play offense as well as defense. Let's say theoretically you had a player with Bergeron's defensive ability but only replacement level offense: is that player really going to get you more than an extra win compared to a player with replacement level offense and defense? On the surface it might seem like it, but hockey is just such a team game that in a season where the average team would expect 41 wins, it takes quite a bit for a single player alone to start getting the team multiple extra wins versus a replacement level player, especially solely based on their defense. I think intuitively we think individual players contribute to wins more than they do: it's not that different than when a team loses their best player and somehow seems to just keep winning at a similar rate, which seems to happen quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graeme-1 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 4 minutes ago, habsisme said: a top 5 pick is no longer a certainty It's getting closer, I just don't see the team keeping up anywhere near the current pace for the rest of the season and 6 points at this point in the season and with the loser point is still a pretty big gap. If they do stay this hot, it's kind of a nice problem to have because it may indicate this team is better than we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
electron58 Posted March 6, 2022 Report Share Posted March 6, 2022 Last 8 games. Montreal 3 St. Louis(70pts) 2 playoff team Montreal 3 NYI (50pts) 2 Montreal 5 TML (74pts) 2 playoff team Montreal 4 Buff (44pts) 0 Montreal 2 Ott (43pts) 1 Montreal 4 Winn (58pts) 8 bubble team --our goaltending was horrible, yet we were still in the game. Montreal 5 Calg (71pts) 4 playoff team Montreal 5 Edm (64pts) 2 bubble team We're beating some good teams here, where before, we weren't beating anybody. Even the first 3 games under MSL, where they lost, they were playing better. Players are having fun, and there is a whole lot of optimism going around. Did I think this was possible? Absolutely not! We were coached the same way for decades! We're doing this with a depleted roster, no superstars, and the games are actually exciting. Maybe the coaching change in Edmonton was a little energizer blip. Here? The guys seem to be playing the right way. So, can they at least play .500 the rest of the way? I'm thinking that they can. & they'll be fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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