2021-22 State of the Habs

[campabee82]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

You would have to think Pitlick would want some degree of financial security - A 2 year deal at AAV of $1.25M - $1.5M would seem to be the maximum range - if he regressed, then burying $1.125M in the minors is a small price if he cleared waivers

I personally would go as high as 3 years on a 1.25 Mil contract, it buys an extra year of UFA status.

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

You would have to think Pitlick would want some degree of financial security - A 2 year deal at AAV of $1.25M - $1.5M would seem to be the maximum range - if he regressed, then burying $1.125M in the minors is a small price if he cleared waivers

yeah a 2 or 3 year deal would be ideal.  He knows he's UFA in a year so I think he may want $1.5-2 but even that is fine.  MB would have likely given him $3.75m per 

[electron58]

3 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Let's just avoid the all the BS and extend him before the end of the season, let's not have another KK situation, just offer him 1.25 x 3 years right now.

I'm OK with that. He's shown enough to warrant one. Something reasonable would work. I like what I've seen thus far. The compete level and the on ice awareness are right up there.

[seth505]

16 hours ago, H_T_L said:

So,,, R. Pitlick now with a dozen goals. I think the kid has earned a contract. 

Agreed, he's got to be exceeding expectations by a good margin.

[BigTed3]

2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

I personally would go as high as 3 years on a 1.25 Mil contract, it buys an extra year of UFA status.

 

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

yeah a 2 or 3 year deal would be ideal.  He knows he's UFA in a year so I think he may want $1.5-2 but even that is fine.  MB would have likely given him $3.75m per 

Pitlick has played well for us. But consider that he has a shooting percentage of about 32% right now, which is very obviously unsustainable. His Corsi of 42% and expected goals of 42% are very low, and his PDO is high at 1.034. What does that mean? Pitlick has benefited from an extreme amount of puck luck and the numbers strongly suggest this will not be maintained over a larger sample size (ie a 3-year contract).

Look at Paul Byron's numbers when he was brought over from Calgary. He shot 22-23% his first two seasons with us and scored 33 goals in his first 150 games or so. But then starting in 2017-18 we see his shooting percentage regress to the mean: 17.4% then 16% then 13.8% then 11.4% and this year 7.7%. An average player will usually be in that 8-9% range, so 7.7% is a more reasonable number to sustain, and Byron has all of 6 goals in his last 58 games with us over the past two seasons. I think we all know the long-term 3.4M AAV contract he got was a mistake to hand out to a depth player, and the same can be said about handling negotiations with Pitlick. The deal you guys proposed, in the 2-3 year range for 1.5-1.75M is reasonable. Anything more and I would look at a 1-year arbitration settlement (assuming he plays enough games to get to RFA status) and ask him to prove himself again next year. Ultimately, I think Pitlick is a 12-14 goal man if he's playing in the bottom 6, and he's not adding much in terms of defensive play, centering/face-off skill, or size/physicality, so I don't see a rush to have to overpay him. He's a nice depth scoring piece but he's easily replaceable, and I'd frankly rather have a Ylonen or RHP or Vejdemo or Poehling here on a lesser contract than pay Pitlick for a 32% shooting percentage that he won't keep up over time.

[maas_art]

16 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 

Pitlick has played well for us. But consider that he has a shooting percentage of about 32% right now, which is very obviously unsustainable. His Corsi of 42% and expected goals of 42% are very low, and his PDO is high at 1.034. What does that mean? Pitlick has benefited from an extreme amount of puck luck and the numbers strongly suggest this will not be maintained over a larger sample size (ie a 3-year contract).

Look at Paul Byron's numbers when he was brought over from Calgary. He shot 22-23% his first two seasons with us and scored 33 goals in his first 150 games or so. But then starting in 2017-18 we see his shooting percentage regress to the mean: 17.4% then 16% then 13.8% then 11.4% and this year 7.7%. An average player will usually be in that 8-9% range, so 7.7% is a more reasonable number to sustain, and Byron has all of 6 goals in his last 58 games with us over the past two seasons. I think we all know the long-term 3.4M AAV contract he got was a mistake to hand out to a depth player, and the same can be said about handling negotiations with Pitlick. The deal you guys proposed, in the 2-3 year range for 1.5-1.75M is reasonable. Anything more and I would look at a 1-year arbitration settlement (assuming he plays enough games to get to RFA status) and ask him to prove himself again next year. Ultimately, I think Pitlick is a 12-14 goal man if he's playing in the bottom 6, and he's not adding much in terms of defensive play, centering/face-off skill, or size/physicality, so I don't see a rush to have to overpay him. He's a nice depth scoring piece but he's easily replaceable, and I'd frankly rather have a Ylonen or RHP or Vejdemo or Poehling here on a lesser contract than pay Pitlick for a 32% shooting percentage that he won't keep up over time.

Agree.  I also think his camp would understand this is a small sample size. I dont think $$ will be an issue if HuGo decide to resign him... i think the bigger issue is going to be term.  Pitlick is going to want 1 year most likely - to prove himself & then hit UFA.  But I would think the team would like a few years at that $1.5-2m range.  Even if he totally regresses to 20 points per year (he's currently on 50pt pace!) its a decent deal. 

I like pitlick - i liked him when we got him & actually said at the time that i thought it was a sneaky good move. I think he's still got more to give. I agree that puck-luck is definitely in play - and when Dvorak comes back you have to assume Pitlick is pushed down to 3rd line centre or back to wing - but for now, he's looked really good as a nice depth piece and he's young enough to be around for a bit. 

 

[BigTed3]

7 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Agree.  I also think his camp would understand this is a small sample size. I dont think $$ will be an issue if HuGo decide to resign him... i think the bigger issue is going to be term.  Pitlick is going to want 1 year most likely - to prove himself & then hit UFA.  But I would think the team would like a few years at that $1.5-2m range.  Even if he totally regresses to 20 points per year (he's currently on 50pt pace!) its a decent deal. 

I like pitlick - i liked him when we got him & actually said at the time that i thought it was a sneaky good move. I think he's still got more to give. I agree that puck-luck is definitely in play - and when Dvorak comes back you have to assume Pitlick is pushed down to 3rd line centre or back to wing - but for now, he's looked really good as a nice depth piece and he's young enough to be around for a bit. 

 

With a full line-up, Pitlick is a winger and he's behind Anderson/Caufield, Hoffman/Gallagher, and Drouin/Lehkonen on the depth chart, barring trades. For me, he should also be behind Ylonen next season (who I've said many times is a player I think is underrated and can be a good middle 6 NHL winger) and possibly battling Byron and Armia and Poehling for ice time next year. Maybe even Pezzetta and RHP. I think the line-up will change a lot over the trade deadline and summer, but the bottom line is that we don't need to overpay for Pitlick, and while it would be nice to have him on a cheaper deal, we have other guys who can fill that hole.

From my end, if Pitlick wants a one-year prove-it deal, I'm happy to take it. If he scores 25 goals next year, it's a win for us. If his numbers regress (especially if we're healthier and don't need to give him PP time), then it's also somewhat of a win contract-wise.

[ramcharger440]

He has one ting folks have not mentioned too much and that is speed! he is fast and has good hands! his passing is great and he has good vision. His age speed and vision make him exactly what Gorton Hughes and MSL all say they want so I rank him much higher than some I think he will get signed and several other forwards are going to be on the way out. The goals he has scored are nice but he also picks up a good number of assists and with his speed he will plug into most lines on any given night. 

[H_T_L]

Yeah,,, i've been impressed by the guy for the little time he's been here, but i sure don't want to see a Bergevin type contract that he seemed obligated to give bottom 6 guys or bottom pairing D. On this team he can play a top 9 role easy enough, but that doesn't mean it's guaranteed not to change down the road. Short term deal (1 or 2 years) is the way to go IMO.

[BigTed3]

41 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

He has one ting folks have not mentioned too much and that is speed! he is fast and has good hands! his passing is great and he has good vision. His age speed and vision make him exactly what Gorton Hughes and MSL all say they want so I rank him much higher than some I think he will get signed and several other forwards are going to be on the way out. The goals he has scored are nice but he also picks up a good number of assists and with his speed he will plug into most lines on any given night. 

Absolutely, he is fast, skilled, smart, and has good hands. But I can say the same thing about Byron and Lehkonen, and those two guys are better defensively. Byron was also a good finisher when he came here, less so now. Lehkonen has been bad at finishing until suddenly this year it's come together a bit better. Again, I think Ylonen is just as fast, more skilled, and a  better shooter than any of those three guys. I'd welcome Pitlick back here on a 2-3 year deal if the AAV is in the range of 1.5-1.75M. I'd love to get rid of Armia, Hoffman, and Gallagher and be able to run a line of Evans with two of Lehkonen, Byron, and Pitlick as a 4th line. Even if we were to get rid of only Armia and Hoffman, as long as we finish poorly enough to draft a center like Wright, Cooley, or Savoie, then we could run back something like

 

Caufield-Suzuki-Anderson

Drouin-Top 5 pick-Ylonen

Poehling-Dvorak-Gallagher

Pitlick-Evans-Lehkonen

 

and it isn't great but it has a lot of the players in the right seats at least. The D would still need boatloads of work, however, and that's really the rate-limiting step on this team getting back to being a contender.

 

[electron58]

1 hour ago, ramcharger440 said:

He has one ting folks have not mentioned too much and that is speed! he is fast and has good hands! his passing is great and he has good vision. His age speed and vision make him exactly what Gorton Hughes and MSL all say they want so I rank him much higher than some I think he will get signed and several other forwards are going to be on the way out. The goals he has scored are nice but he also picks up a good number of assists and with his speed he will plug into most lines on any given night. 

Yes. Vision & speed. 2 great attributes.  & he doesn't look out of place. Rem was a big part of the equalizer & GWG in the last game. I say, no accident. He finally got a chance to prove himself here. I'm sure Minny regrets their decision to leave him exposed.

[H_T_L]

On 3/12/2022 at 3:38 PM, H_T_L said:

Well ,,,,Paquette was waived today.

 

On 3/12/2022 at 3:49 PM, kinot-2 said:

Hope somebody picks him up. 

For the record,,,, cleared and assigned to Laval.

[electron58]

1 minute ago, H_T_L said:

For the record,,,, cleared and assigned to Laval.

Hopefully,  he remains there.

[claremont]

3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Absolutely, he is fast, skilled, smart, and has good hands. But I can say the same thing about Byron and Lehkonen, and those two guys are better defensively. Byron was also a good finisher when he came here, less so now. Lehkonen has been bad at finishing until suddenly this year it's come together a bit better. Again, I think Ylonen is just as fast, more skilled, and a  better shooter than any of those three guys. I'd welcome Pitlick back here on a 2-3 year deal if the AAV is in the range of 1.5-1.75M. I'd love to get rid of Armia, Hoffman, and Gallagher and be able to run a line of Evans with two of Lehkonen, Byron, and Pitlick as a 4th line. Even if we were to get rid of only Armia and Hoffman, as long as we finish poorly enough to draft a center like Wright, Cooley, or Savoie, then we could run back something like

Caufield-Suzuki-Anderson

Drouin-Top 5 pick-Ylonen

Poehling-Dvorak-Gallagher

Pitlick-Evans-Lehkonen

and it isn't great but it has a lot of the players in the right seats at least. The D would still need boatloads of work, however, and that's really the rate-limiting step on this team getting back to being a contender.

 

I don't know if I would limit Pitlick to wing - he is pretty fast and agile to keep up at centre (but he's equivalent to Savoie or Cooley on the size front), and I don't see Drouin here after next year. I've said before that a top 5 pick unless it is possibly Wright, will be very difficult to crack our lineup next year. I could very well see us drafting Juri Slafkovsky as a Drouin LW future replacement, if Wright is taken ahead of us in the tank / lottery draft.  We also have the gutsy but smallish LW RHPinard possibly coming up. Joshua Roy has been predominantly playing his off wing (RW) as a left handed shot. Both Juri and Joshua are likely to be a minimum of 1 year away and then LW Emil Heineman lands on the scene 2 years out. Either way, I think our winger depth could be a strength in the long term which makes Armia, Byron, Hoffman and Lehkonen as long term redundant I know we haven't used Pitlick at Centre as maybe the coaching staff see something I don't, or we limp along with Poehling at centre. I certainly hope we find that elusive centre though. The Chiarot trade and / or Lehkonen trade I hope provides more clarity. 

[ramcharger440]

6 minutes ago, claremont said:

I don't know if I would limit Pitlick to wing - he is pretty fast and agile to keep up at centre (but he's equivalent to Savoie or Cooley on the size front), and I don't see Drouin here after next year. I've said before that a top 5 pick unless it is possibly Wright, will be very difficult to crack our lineup next year. I could very well see us drafting Juri Slafkovsky as a Drouin LW future replacement, if Wright is taken ahead of us in the tank / lottery draft.  We also have the gutsy but smallish LW RHPinard possibly coming up. Joshua Roy has been predominantly playing his off wing (RW) as a left handed shot. Both Juri and Joshua are likely to be a minimum of 1 year away and then LW Emil Heineman lands on the scene 2 years out. Either way, I think our winger depth could be a strength in the long term which makes Armia, Byron, Hoffman and Lehkonen as long term redundant I know we haven't used Pitlick at Centre as maybe the coaching staff see something I don't, or we limp along with Poehling at centre. I certainly hope we find that elusive centre though. The Chiarot trade and / or Lehkonen trade I hope provides more clarity. 

Yep and on top of that I don't see Pitlick on the 4th line! the pass he made last night is not a 4th line pass!

[BigTed3]

With Poehling injured, Ylonen gets recalled. Hope he gets to play and play in a scoring role under MSL. One of my favorite prospects since he was drafted.

[maas_art]

15 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

With Poehling injured, Ylonen gets recalled. Hope he gets to play and play in a scoring role under MSL. One of my favorite prospects since he was drafted.

im getting a little concerend with how often Poehling and Evans are injured. 
If we get a centre with a top 5 pick this year & have Suzuki + new guy + Dvorak as our #3 i guess it doenst matter too much as Jake & Ryan can split duties but it is a concern, long term. 

[BigTed3]

58 minutes ago, maas_art said:

im getting a little concerend with how often Poehling and Evans are injured. 
If we get a centre with a top 5 pick this year & have Suzuki + new guy + Dvorak as our #3 i guess it doenst matter too much as Jake & Ryan can split duties but it is a concern, long term. 

And we should be. Look what happened to Andrew Shaw. Eric Lindros. Marc Savard.

At this point, I don't see Evans or Poehling being anything more than a bottom 6 center. They both bring quality skills to the table, but in an ideal world, Evans is our 4C and Poehling is probably a bottom 6 winger. It's too bad both have been derailed by so many injuries, but regardless of whether they're healthy or not, there needs to be a contingency plan for the middle 6 center roles. Dvorak isn't a long-term solution, and neither are Evans and Poehling.

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

And we should be. Look what happened to Andrew Shaw. Eric Lindros. Marc Savard.

At this point, I don't see Evans or Poehling being anything more than a bottom 6 center. They both bring quality skills to the table, but in an ideal world, Evans is our 4C and Poehling is probably a bottom 6 winger. It's too bad both have been derailed by so many injuries, but regardless of whether they're healthy or not, there needs to be a contingency plan for the middle 6 center roles. Dvorak isn't a long-term solution, and neither are Evans and Poehling.

I think if you manage to draft a Wright or Savoie or Cooley you're probably set for a while up front.   Suzuki + one of those guys is a great 1-2.  Then you have Dvorak (still only 26) + Evans & Poehling + Kidney, Mysak, Hillis + possibly someone we draft this year - even Pitlck although i tend to agree he's better as a winger long-term.... there's probably enough pieces there to fill out the 3rd and 4th line pivot position but i could see them signing a short term solution like Hertl too so i guess we'll see whcih way we go... 

[MALMACIAN_CRUNCH]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I think if you manage to draft a Wright or Savoie or Cooley you're probably set for a while up front.   Suzuki + one of those guys is a great 1-2.  Then you have Dvorak (still only 26) + Evans & Poehling + Kidney, Mysak, Hillis + possibly someone we draft this year - even Pitlck although i tend to agree he's better as a winger long-term.... there's probably enough pieces there to fill out the 3rd and 4th line pivot position but i could see them signing a short term solution like Hertl too so i guess we'll see whcih way we go... 

Don’t forget Simoneau ;)

[jennifer_rocket]

Yeah, I'm not imagining a world where Evans or Poehling are a part of this team long-term. Both seem to be struggling to claim a firm spot on the team... and that's fine. There will be other young players who come through the system that can replace them over the next few years.

[claremont]

15 hours ago, maas_art said:

I think if you manage to draft a Wright or Savoie or Cooley you're probably set for a while up front.   Suzuki + one of those guys is a great 1-2.  Then you have Dvorak (still only 26) + Evans & Poehling + Kidney, Mysak, Hillis + possibly someone we draft this year - even Pitlck although i tend to agree he's better as a winger long-term.... there's probably enough pieces there to fill out the 3rd and 4th line pivot position but i could see them signing a short term solution like Hertl too so i guess we'll see whcih way we go... 

I’ll reiterate that unless it’s Wright, we will limp along at the 2C spot for the next 2 years. When KK got drafted and pushed into a starting role the year after his draft, he was up then down like the proverbial TED toilet seat (just checking if he is reading….). Poehling had that miracle game then fell into the ditch. What we have now is 3C and 4C’s in Devo, Evans, Poehling, and maybe  Pitlick. Kidney, Mysak I see ceilings of 3C’s. 

The best thing for any of our drafted centres is to develop in the AHL vs. being pushed forward. I concur with your suggestion that we may have to patch the 2C role for the short term (F/A or trade), while we await the emergence for a stronger 1-2 punch. 

[HabsAlways]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

I’ll reiterate that unless it’s Wright, we will limp along at the 2C spot for the next 2 years. When KK got drafted and pushed into a starting role the year after his draft, he was up then down like the proverbial TED toilet seat (just checking if he is reading….). Poehling had that miracle game then fell into the ditch. What we have now is 3C and 4C’s in Devo, Evans, Poehling, and maybe  Pitlick. Kidney, Mysak I see ceilings of 3C’s. 

The best thing for any of our drafted centres is to develop in the AHL vs. being pushed forward. I concur with your suggestion that we may have to patch the 2C role for the short term (F/A or trade), while we await the emergence for a stronger 1-2 punch. 

Wright is over rated, and being pumped up by the Ontario-centric Canadian media.    Who I'd draft if its not 1st overall is Pavel Mintyukov, LD at almost a PPG in the CHL and the top ranked D in the draft

[claremont]

20 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Wright is over rated, and being pumped up by the Ontario-centric Canadian media.    Who I'd draft if its not 1st overall is Pavel Mintyukov, LD at almost a PPG in the CHL and the top ranked D in the draft

Interesting - you feel the same about the Ontario Centric canadian media, the same way I feel about the over hyped USNTDP. That is quite a reach for Mintyukov with only 1 junior season behind him notwithstanding the risk he took to come to Canada to play here vs. a Russian league. So he's one of the best players on a last place Saginaw team, but most drafts have him rated as a 12-18th pick. You would have to be suggesting we trade down. While we have 2 first rounders, the question is whether Mintyukov falls into our Carolina pick range of #24-32 depending on how deep the Canes go in the playoffs. I wonder with the Ukraine - Russia issue as to whether for PR purposes, some of the Russian hockey players are pushed to lower prominence. It's possible but more probable that Tristan Luneau from Gatineau falls into this range. 

[booboo_mtl]

19 minutes ago, claremont said:

Interesting - you feel the same about the Ontario Centric canadian media, the same way I feel about the over hyped USNTDP. That is quite a reach for Mintyukov with only 1 junior season behind him notwithstanding the risk he took to come to Canada to play here vs. a Russian league. So he's one of the best players on a last place Saginaw team, but most drafts have him rated as a 12-18th pick. You would have to be suggesting we trade down. While we have 2 first rounders, the question is whether Mintyukov falls into our Carolina Calgary pick range of #24-32 depending on how deep the Canes Flames go in the playoffs. I wonder with the Ukraine - Russia issue as to whether for PR purposes, some of the Russian hockey players are pushed to lower prominence. It's possible but more probable that Tristan Luneau from Gatineau falls into this range. 

Fixed, Canes pick will be going to Arizona as part of the Dvorak trade