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2021-22 State of the Habs


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1 minute ago, booboo_mtl said:

Fixed, Canes pick will be going to Arizona as part of the Dvorak trade

Let’s hope for CAR to go deep in the playoffs, so the trade looks a little better for us :)

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3 hours ago, claremont said:

I’ll reiterate that unless it’s Wright, we will limp along at the 2C spot for the next 2 years. When KK got drafted and pushed into a starting role the year after his draft, he was up then down like the proverbial TED toilet seat (just checking if he is reading….). Poehling had that miracle game then fell into the ditch. What we have now is 3C and 4C’s in Devo, Evans, Poehling, and maybe  Pitlick. Kidney, Mysak I see ceilings of 3C’s. 

The best thing for any of our drafted centres is to develop in the AHL vs. being pushed forward. I concur with your suggestion that we may have to patch the 2C role for the short term (F/A or trade), while we await the emergence for a stronger 1-2 punch. 

I read'em all. I don't know if I'm meant to be the toilet seat in this analogy or the thing that's going down the toilet, but thanks for the citation!

On the draft, I don't think there's a clear star center available at the top. Wright is the most complete player and the guy most likely to be at least a middle 6 center. Savoie has the highest-end skill level but is smaller. I think he has the highest chance of becoming an elite 1st line player but also the highest risk of not having a long NHL career of the 3 (and I still believe he'll be a good NHLer for what it's worth even though there's risk there). And Cooley is likely somewhere in the middle of those two, more of a gamble than Wright but with a bit more offensive flair and less skilled than Savoie but with a lower chance of flaming out. I'd be happy with any of them to be honest. And if we get a chance to add more mid-1st rounders, then players like Nazar or McGroarty are also interesting to me. It's clear that there are no McDavid's or Tavares' or Crosby's in this draft, so there are no virtual locks for a top 6 center, but there are still reasonable upgrades that are likely to pan out over time. I just think they're going to be 2-3 years away from being useful pieces.

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2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

Wright is over rated, and being pumped up by the Ontario-centric Canadian media.    Who I'd draft if its not 1st overall is Pavel Mintyukov, LD at almost a PPG in the CHL and the top ranked D in the draft

I really like Mintyukov as well, he's a guy with great talent who has been shooting up draft boards (including my own most recent one). I still think Nemec is the better option for a D man but I think Mintyukov could go in the 8-14 range, and with Jiricek hurt, Mintyukov could easily be the 2nd D man off the board. There are other guys I've had a chance to watch who make sense as later first rounders too though. Luneau is a bit more of a project but could be interesting. Mateychuk has a bit less upside but should become a solid NHL D man. I think if we add 1-2 more 1st's by trading Chiarot, Allen, or Lehkonen for example and then have a late 1st from Calgary and a choice at the top of the 2nd, we should be able to add 3-4 quality players who can help in a couple of years.

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1 hour ago, ChiLla said:

Let’s hope for CAR to go deep in the playoffs, so the trade looks a little better for us :)

I'd actually prefer to see Carolina flame out. Remember that we still own their 3rd round pick this year, so we want that to be as good as possible. Regardless of where that Carolina 1st ends up, the trade-off for me will still be Kotkaniemi + a 2023 2nd rounder (in a strong draft) vs. Dvorak + a 3rd. It's a bad swap regardless of whether that pick is 26th overall or 32nd, and given Carolina will likely win their division, they can't end up with pick 17 or 20 in that situation anyways. If they get knocked out in Round 1 or 2, then at best their pick is 25. If they don't win their division, it's more interesting. The same holds true for the pick we got from Calgary, given they almost certainly will win their division too.

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Does anyone think we might buy out Savard at the end of the season? This is what the cap penalty would look like over the next six seasons:

2022-23    $488,889
2023-24    $488,889
2024-25    $2,388,889
2025-26    $1,188,889
2026-27    $1,188,889
2027-28    $1,188,889

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22 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Does anyone think we might buy out Savard at the end of the season? This is what the cap penalty would look like over the next sex seasons:

2022-23    $488,889
2023-24    $488,889
2024-25    $2,388,889
2025-26    $1,188,889
2026-27    $1,188,889
2027-28    $1,188,889

Probably doable.  Karl Alzner should be off the books soon. What if they wait a year?

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26 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Does anyone think we might buy out Savard at the end of the season? This is what the cap penalty would look like over the next sex seasons:

2022-23    $488,889
2023-24    $488,889
2024-25    $2,388,889
2025-26    $1,188,889
2026-27    $1,188,889
2027-28    $1,188,889

I believe it will be end of 2023 because of: 1) Give Savard some chance with MSL to turn his season around as Douchecharm had a pretty negative effect on many players 2) A lot depends on if Petry is moved as we have no veteran D leadership beyond Edmundson 3) don't really need the cap relief of Savard for next year 4) The cap pain is much less for 2024 and beyond - at $383K, 2,283M, 1.083M and 1.083M  (4 years rather than your 6 above. 

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36 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Does anyone think we might buy out Savard at the end of the season? This is what the cap penalty would look like over the next sex seasons:

2022-23    $488,889
2023-24    $488,889
2024-25    $2,388,889
2025-26    $1,188,889
2026-27    $1,188,889
2027-28    $1,188,889

I doubt we buy him out this year but maybe see it in the future. If we bury him in the minors his cap hit isnt horrendous and i think we're less likely to need that cap space for a couple of years anyway. The buyout prolongs the time we have to keep paying him so it may not be in our best interest. 

 

My guess is they will try(in order):

- Quietly shopping him, see if there's a market
- Try to play him in easier situations, see if he performs better & we either decide to keep him, or we raise his value for a trade
- Actively shop him
- Waive him
- Bury him (we bury a little over $1m so that means we're paying him $2.4m off the cap to play in laval)  

At $3.5m its not the worst contract in the world, the bigger issue is that he's been actively hurting the team when he's been on the ice so if he cant turn that around, he needs to be off the roster. 

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10 minutes ago, claremont said:

I believe it will be end of 2023 because of: 1) Give Savard some chance with MSL to turn his season around as Douchecharm had a pretty negative effect on many players 2) A lot depends on if Petry is moved as we have no veteran D leadership beyond Edmundson 3) don't really need the cap relief of Savard for next year 4) The cap pain is much less for 2024 and beyond - at $383K, 2,283M, 1.083M and 1.083M  (4 years rather than your 6 above. 

Good points!

I suppose there's absolutely no harm in having Savard with the team next season instead of buying him out. Perhaps there is a small chance he can improve and increase his value.

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So,,, Perreault clears waivers. Supposedly a good veteran player on a dirt cheap contract and no takers. Just goes to show how much MB crapped the bed when he picked up these guys last summer IMO.

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12 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

So,,, Perreault clears waivers. Supposedly a good veteran player on a dirt cheap contract and no takers. Just goes to show how much MB crapped the bed when he picked up these guys last summer IMO.

meh, I don't think anything of it. One year minimum salary. It didn't work, who cares

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6 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Good points!

I suppose there's absolutely no harm in having Savard with the team next season instead of buying him out. Perhaps there is a small chance he can improve and increase his value.

yeah definitely worth waiting. We don't need the cap space so we can give him a chance to find his game a bit and if no we bury him until we actually need the money and it won't be so bad of a recapture

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13 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

So,,, Perreault clears waivers. Supposedly a good veteran player on a dirt cheap contract and no takers. Just goes to show how much MB crapped the bed when he picked up these guys last summer IMO.

im somewhat surprised he wasnt claimed by a team wanting vet depth but i also think a lot of teams that want players need the space/cap for a trade.  

I actually think there's more of a chance he's traded now - a team can get him (for peanuts) and then put them on their AHL club without having to worry about waivers - and then they have insurance for the playoffs if injuries strike. 

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Did you know?
Brandon Hagel played with Montreal against Ottawa in September 7, 2018 in the prospect showcase. Habs didn't sign him and then, Hagel got a contract with Chicago one month later.

Yeah. Not surprised, since the previous regime couldn't recognize talent, let alone develop it.

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1 hour ago, electron58 said:

Did you know?
Brandon Hagel played with Montreal against Ottawa in September 7, 2018 in the prospect showcase. Habs didn't sign him and then, Hagel got a contract with Chicago one month later.

Yeah. Not surprised, since the previous regime couldn't recognize talent, let alone develop it.

But in fairness to Bergevin, Hagel was passed over by every team in the draft multiple times and drafted in the 6th round, then let go by the team that drafted him. It's not like any GM really recognized him as a legit talent either, and he's really only broken out this year. At the same time as this, I could say Bergevin jumped on Byron when he was available. Or that he went after Petry and recognized the potential to be much better than he was in Edmonton. Don't get me wrong, I disagreed with a lot of how Bergevin assessed talent, and you're right that he missed out here, but I'll cut him a bit of slack on this for being no worse than his peers.

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11 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

But in fairness to Bergevin, Hagel was passed over by every team in the draft multiple times and drafted in the 6th round, then let go by the team that drafted him. It's not like any GM really recognized him as a legit talent either, and he's really only broken out this year. At the same time as this, I could say Bergevin jumped on Byron when he was available. Or that he went after Petry and recognized the potential to be much better than he was in Edmonton. Don't get me wrong, I disagreed with a lot of how Bergevin assessed talent, and you're right that he missed out here, but I'll cut him a bit of slack on this for being no worse than his peers.

But they must have seen something,  to invite him to camp. Kind of like when they missed out on Hunt. It would have been a cheap add. Some of these guys that they draft or sign makes me scratch my head. Unless they're just trying to fill out rosters.

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Philippe Myers among the players on waivers today as Nashville seems to be wanting to clear cap space. He's a 25 year-old, 6'5" RHD making 2.55M for this year and next. Not that he's the optimal solution, but given the fact this is the position with the worst organizational depth and the fact the Habs have first claim to any waivers player, might they be interested? Rumors are that Philly would look to re-claim him if he makes it past the first few teams in the pecking order. Have to think Myers still has some value.

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17 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Philippe Myers among the players on waivers today as Nashville seems to be wanting to clear cap space. He's a 25 year-old, 6'5" RHD making 2.55M for this year and next. Not that he's the optimal solution, but given the fact this is the position with the worst organizational depth and the fact the Habs have first claim to any waivers player, might they be interested? Rumors are that Philly would look to re-claim him if he makes it past the first few teams in the pecking order. Have to think Myers still has some value.

I would claim Myers, he still has top 4 potential and would bump Savard to the 3rd pairing.

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