2021-22 State of the Habs

[jennifer_rocket]

49 minutes ago, KRH said:

Getting out from under Price's contract, and Weber's contract, and Gallagher's contract, and Hoffman's contract, and Savard's contract, are the real obstacles moving forward.

Why did we sign Hoffman and Savard ?

I guess Bergevin believed we were a Cup contender and that Hoffman and Savard would be the missing pieces to the puzzle.

[claremont]

1 hour ago, KRH said:

I like Petry, and I would not be inclined to ship him out at this time ........ but everything has a price.

I would absolutely agree with you but there's a number of factors beyond the team holding the hammer on "the player signed a contract to be here" and 6.25 million reasons such as ;

1) I am not saying Julie Petry is a "Lauren Pronger" type but if you recall that incident, Chris Pronger's wife refused to move to Edmonton from St. Louis after he played 1 year there and basically Pronger had to demand a trade. Julie Petry has been harassed by some outlier group of fans disappointed with Petry's early season play. Also the the Covid restrictions in Quebec had a huge impact on their family life and kids so Jeff has to bring that into consideration

2) Is Petry's heart into motivating the young players around him, and does he buy into the patience required for a competitive reset / rebuild?

It's a good thing Petry had an uptick in his performance the last quarter with MSL as coach, to make him more marketable but if Petry's heart and motivation is waning, then HuGo has to balance those elements in what is best for the organizational

[jennifer_rocket]

At this point, I would be doing what Hughes said he was gonna do. Trading Petry if the right deal is available for the team. He has value.

I also sort of get not wanting to play for the previous regime.  Not sure if those factors were driving the trade request or if it was a desire to be in the United States.

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

At this point, I would be doing what Hughes said he was gonna do. Trading Petry if the right deal is available for the team. He has value.

I also sort of get not wanting to play for the previous regime.  Not sure if those factors were driving the trade request or if it was a desire to be in the United States.

Well and Petry is going to be 35 later this year.  He's got 3 more seasons left on his deal... even if he is good next year, its tough to believe we're going to get solid value out of him for the duration.  I wasnt opposed to the extension (as i was with Gallagher) but I also knew we likely wouldnt be getting great cost out of him to end the deal. If were now in a position to move him (and we're certainly in a different position than we were when we signed him) I think it makes sense to move that contract.   Id love to move Savard's as well. 

That leaves us with Edmundson, Romanov and a whole bunch of young prospects.  I do think we need to grab someone else - Letang being the obvious answer but like Petry, he's old (actually, older).

In a perfect world I would get rid of Savard and either:
- Keep Petry
- Trade Petry for assets and sign Letang for free - but the deal for Letang has to be no longer than Petry's and I think thats your big issue. If Letang wont sign in Pittsburgh for 2 or 3 years or whatever the impasse is, he wont do it with us either. 

 

 

[Regis22]

https://awinninghabit.com/2022/05/02/canadiens-five-players-need-go/

Montreal Canadiens: Five Players That Need To Go

He lists Drouin, Hoffman, Petry , Byron ,and Price

lol. good luck on moving Price 

 

I would add Gallagher.

Im keeping Savard only because we have nothing else back there 

[Regis22]

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2022/05/canadiens-to-face-sizable-bonus-overage-penalty.html

Canadiens To Face Sizable Bonus Overage Penalty

[maas_art]

HuGo will have their work cut out for them this summer.  A lot of nice building blocks but also some problematic contracts.

Here's what I see in terms of expected roster:
 

Forwards I think HuGo will keep (unless they are blown away by an offer):
Caufield
Suzuki
Anderson
R Pitlick
Dvorak
Evans
Poehling
Armia
8 guys, pretty good overall quality - a nice starting point but some obvious holes.

Forwards I think HuGo try to trade: 

Drouin  
Hoffman 
Gallagher
I am not sure if they will have any takes for any of them but I suspect they are putting out feelers on all 3 of these guys. 

Forwards (prospects) who might make the bigs:

Ylonen

Roy

Heineman

1st-3rd OVA

Assuming we get Wright, he makes the roster imho.  Cooley, Savoie, Nemec - who knows. I think Ylonen makes the roster. I think Roy gets a 9 game stint.

 

Defensmen I think HuGo will keep (unless they are blown away by an offer):

Romanov 

Edmundson

Harris
Barron
Schueneman

5 guys but wow thats a lack of experience.  Romanov is our 2nd most seasoned guy.  You have to think if Petry goes, we add at least one vet. 
 

Defensmen I think HuGo try to trade: 

Savard

Petry

I could see Hugo actually keeping Savard. he looked much better under MSL but he's also expensive for what he brings to our roster. 

 

Defensmen  (prospects) who might make the bigs:

Clague

Guhle

Norlinder

Any of these guys could technically make an NHL roster but with so many young players in our D i dont see any of them beating out Harris, Barron etc. 

 

Guys we will likely let go UFA:  
Perrault
T Pitlick
Niku
Wideman

Wideman is probably the only one that i think we might re-sign. 

 

Goalies:  
Price

Allen
Monty

Monty is RFA. I think Price gets shopped but i doubt there's a deal to be had. 

 

 

 

Obviously two HUGE questions marks in Price and Weber - the latter being more to do with whether we can move that contract or whether we have to keep it on our LTIR (which can still have implications to the cap during the off season).  

 

 

 

 

 

[habsisme]

1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

https://awinninghabit.com/2022/05/02/canadiens-five-players-need-go/

Montreal Canadiens: Five Players That Need To Go

He lists Drouin, Hoffman, Petry , Byron ,and Price

lol. good luck on moving Price 

 

I would add Gallagher.

Im keeping Savard only because we have nothing else back there 

Drouin and Byron, I hope to trade them at the deadline for value, both should have some time on the Suzuki Caufield line. 

Hoffman, he needs to go more than anyone else, especially in a rebuild, we just need him. 

Price he will end his career a hab. If he's not injured he will be good for us, and if he's done he will be on LTIR. I can live with that

Petry if he wants to say, I'm keeping him

Gallagher for sure move him if you can (although I still have hope he can bounce back next season) but I don't mind keeping him either

[Graeme-1]

7 hours ago, KRH said:

Getting out from under Price's contract, and Weber's contract, and Gallagher's contract, and Hoffman's contract, and Savard's contract, are the real obstacles moving forward.

Why did we sign Hoffman and Savard ?

One thing I recently learned is it sounds like you can use LTIR in the offseason (the idea you can only go 10 percent over is a misconception), so there's likely little concern on Weber's contract. Price's sure sounds like its heading the same way.  And I suspect Gallagher is a year or two from joining them. 

Hoffman's contract is bad for what he brings, but it's only 2 more seasons and not huge money, so team can probably make it work in the meantime

Similar for Savard (although one extra year), but he strikes me as someone you can buyout when you really need the cap space.

I don't love our cap situation, but it's not clear to me it's going to cause us major problems like having to let a good young player go. Most of the problems will clear up in the next 2-3 years where we're unlikely to be competitive anyways and I suspect we can navigate without having to trade Caufield or something, and the others should be taken care of with LTIR.

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

I don't love our cap situation, but it's not clear to me it's going to cause us major problems like having to let a good young player go. 

This is a good point. We're not going to be playing salary dump games like some other teams have had to.  We're nowhere near 'needing' that cap space right now so if we're right up against it & we still suck, so be it. 

[claremont]

On 4/30/2022 at 7:16 PM, BigTed3 said:

Hughes pretty much said as much today... he said if they do get rid of Petry, the plan will be to sign or add a veteran to play that role rather than allowing a youngster to fill it. There are very few Petry-quality guys available. Letang is #1. Subban is probably #2. After that, there isn't much by the way of UFA's on the right side. Keeping Petry may well be the best option.

Agree on the best option keeping Petry however is there another option that no one has raised yet? Is experimenting with Romanov Harris or Guhle playing the right side in a 3/4, 5/6 pairing a massive degradation? Probably would be assessed within exhibition and a 10-15 game trial but if we are not expected to be contenders, can we play slightly less than .500 hockey and not take a shellacking losing streak with such a configuration? Save $6.25M less salary retention less the contract cost of the above LHD playing right. Might not be optimal for Romanov since he is a staple on the LHD side. Better option than picking up a journeyman RHD? Too much pressure / bad development on a rookie? 

[maas_art]

45 minutes ago, claremont said:

Agree on the best option keeping Petry however is there another option that no one has raised yet? Is experimenting with Romanov Harris or Guhle playing the right side in a 3/4, 5/6 pairing a massive degradation? Probably would be assessed within exhibition and a 10-15 game trial but if we are not expected to be contenders, can we play slightly less than .500 hockey and not take a shellacking losing streak with such a configuration? Save $6.25M less salary retention less the contract cost of the above LHD playing right. Might not be optimal for Romanov since he is a staple on the LHD side. Better option than picking up a journeyman RHD? Too much pressure / bad development on a rookie? 

I think its a pretty huge downgrade and also, who takes your 1/2 RHD slot? 

[claremont]

19 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think its a pretty huge downgrade and also, who takes your 1/2 RHD slot? 

Barron or Savard 

[maas_art]

5 minutes ago, claremont said:

Barron or Savard 

Thats a big step off obviously. I guess the question is how bad will we be next year & should we care?

I get the sense that HuGo is going to try to make us (at worst) a bubble team without sacrificing youth.    You add a Shane Wright to this forward group & you have a legit top 6, and a solid few pieces in your bottom 6 (which is easy enough to flesh out anyway).  In goal (assuming price is back) we should be ok... so that really leaves defense.   Edmundson-Petry + Romanov, Savard, Harris, Barron... maybe we're not as bad as it seems.   But you pull Petry out & have Savard play that top pairing role & I think we lose a lot more often than we win.  Which, maybe, isnt the worst thing in the short term, but im not convinced thats what HuGo thinks. 

[claremont]

28 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Thats a big step off obviously. I guess the question is how bad will we be next year & should we care?

I get the sense that HuGo is going to try to make us (at worst) a bubble team without sacrificing youth.    You add a Shane Wright to this forward group & you have a legit top 6, and a solid few pieces in your bottom 6 (which is easy enough to flesh out anyway).  In goal (assuming price is back) we should be ok... so that really leaves defense.   Edmundson-Petry + Romanov, Savard, Harris, Barron... maybe we're not as bad as it seems.   But you pull Petry out & have Savard play that top pairing role & I think we lose a lot more often than we win.  Which, maybe, isnt the worst thing in the short term, but im not convinced thats what HuGo thinks. 

Yes it’s a $5m plus step off - Savard offers very little offense but can play big minutes defensively. Barron is a huge work in process but I doubt his ceiling is a 1/2 pairing but you never know until you provide the challenge and opportunity vs investing in a journeyman/ retread 

[BigTed3]

On 5/1/2022 at 9:54 PM, Regis22 said:

The sentimental choice yes .  

He doesn't need the media hype though he IS the media hype LOL

He can't still play , he's slow , he's poor defensively . 

By signing PK we would be doling what we were critical of  MB for doing all these years - signing an old, aging D man . 

https://www.allaboutthejersey.com/2021/2/24/22296046/p-k-subban-is-struggling-in-all-facets-of-the-game-for-the-devils

P.K. Subban Is Struggling In All Facets of the Game for the Devils

Subban is an all-situation defencemen for the Devils. And he’s not been particularly strong in any of them.

Just my opinion . 

 

Subban is easily past prime and far from being the player he was. I do think, however, that he'd up his game with the motivation of being in Montreal and he's one of the few guys on the UFA market who I think could handle top 4 minutes and match-ups. I don't think he's the sentimental choice by any means, I think he'd actually come with some baggage that needs sorting out in the locker room with Gallagher. The only reason I'd consider Subban at this time is if he'd sign a one-year deal. I don't want to lock up an older veteran for 4-5 years and hurt ourselves when we're a legit contender for a Cup. Next year is a re-building year. But you also can't go in with Savard-Barron-Wideman down the right side. Subban IMO would carry some load, be a mentor to younger players, and then we wouldn't have the commitment long-term. At the end of the day, my preference is to keep Petry. But if it turns out that's not an option, I'd rather Subban for one year at 4.5M than Letang at 5 years for 7.5M. Not wasting cap space on aging vets, especially when we look at what our window to win is likely going to be, is more important than who we get for one season next year.

 

On 5/1/2022 at 10:05 PM, Regis22 said:

It’s funny a couple years ago we were discussing how the team needed a starting top pairing left handed D man. Here we are today, we still need that #1 LHD man but now we need a #1 RHD man too AND a maybe a starting goalie .  

The team has needed a top-pairing LHD for years (since Markov was out of his prime). But some of us have talked about this for a while: that our bigger need going forward was going to be RHD. I mentioned this several times a few years ago and I've talked about how we should have made a pitch to trade for Dumba 2-3 years ago and dumped Weber, and that put a lot of people up in arms. It was always pretty clear that Weber and Petry were going to have expiry dates, and we needed someone who was already good a couple of years ago and still going to be able to transition us through until we had drafted players able to take over on the right side. Dumba was the of player who could have fit that profile, and Minnesota was previously interested in the likes of Domi and Poehling and we never bit at it.

Similarly, look at our roster now... we're strong at LHD in terms of the prospect pool right now. We're also okay but not great at wing where we still have the likes of Caufield, Anderson, and Ylonen who will be around for a while. At RHD, we do now have Barron and maybe Mailloux, so we've addressed some of this, but it's still not a strength. That said, our biggest question mark going forward is going to be center. We have Suzuki and then a lot of question marks. With this draft, it's why our top pick really needs to address the need for another top 6 center or a top-flight RHD, hence why my top 4 right now are Wright-Cooley-Jiricek-Nemec. It's not so much drafting for need as much as it is drafting for positional value. We can find wingers if we need to, but it's harder to find centers and RHD.

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

 At the end of the day, my preference is to keep Petry. But if it turns out that's not an option, I'd rather Subban for one year at 4.5M than Letang at 5 years for 7.5M. Not wasting cap space on aging vets, especially when we look at what our window to win is likely going to be, is more important than who we get for one season next year.

Agree with this.

For me, in order: 

1) Trade Petry for assets, sign Letang to 2-3 years.

2) Keep Petry (3 more years) either for the duration, or trade him before the contract is up

3) Trade Petry & bring in Subban for 1 - 2 years

4) Trade Petry for a young defensman + pick. 

5) Trade Petry & bring in Letang for 4+ years (not something I really want to do but this would be a last resort with the gamble he can still be good in years 3+)

[Regis22]

Zero interest in bring P K Slewfoot back 

sign Wideman for a couple of years and live with it like we did this year 

[BigTed3]

2 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Zero interest in bring P K Slewfoot back 

sign Wideman for a couple of years and live with it like we did this year 

Again, I'm not suggesting PK should be Plan A and I'm not suggesting we should go anywhere near a multi-year deal with him. I'm saying that if he's willing to take a one-year prove-it deal for 4.5M and we can't convince Petry to stay and can't convince Letang to sign for 3 years or less, then Subban is the best UFA option out there for us at right D, and that includes Wideman, who was heavily sheltered on the 3rd pairing last year. As well as Wideman did in his assigned role, he's nowhere close to being able to play in the top 4, so we still need someone who can (because Savard can't either and Barron is a huge question mark). Now if we fall to 3 in the draft, maybe we're looking at Jiricek or Nemec and we decide to throw them right in, but otherwise, look at the UFA list and tell me which RHD man is signing here at a reasonable term and cap hit who can play the top 4. There aren't many options there, if any.

Meanwhile, despite Subban being a shadow of his former self, he's still posted a positive Corsi in 7 of his last 8 seasons. And he's been a positive relative Corsi player in each of his 12 seasons in the league. That means that his team has always done better with him on the ice than with him off of it, including each of his 3 seasons in NJ. And yes, in case you're wondering, the Preds were better with Subban on than with Josi on two of the three years Subban played there. So Subban is still driving play at a better-than-average level. Why are his point totals falling a bit then? Pretty simple, actually. He's getting next to no PP time any more. He played just 43 minutes of PP last year in NJ and had 0 PP points. But his 5v5 production is still on par with what he produced as a Hab... his 5v5 goals per 60 minutes of ice this year was 0.24. Comparatively, in his time as a Canadien, he put up rates of 0.20, 0.04, 0.35, 0.16, 0.27, and 0.19. So his 5v5 goal production was actually better this year than in 4 of his 6 seasons as a Hab. With points per 60 minutes, it's the same story. This year, he hit 0.96 per 60. As a Hab, he posted rates of 0.84, 0.79, 0.98, 0.93, 1.21, and 1.21. So again, his current rate is better than 3 of his 6 seasons as a Hab.

So look, I know there are people here who dislike Subban and people who simply don't want to bring back old players. But if we forget that PK ever played here and looked objectively at the numbers, PK's possession numbers are still pretty good, much better than Savard's for example. And his production at 5v5 is on par with his prime. What has dropped off is the amount of time he gets on the PP and consequently his production there. Quite frankly, I have a hard time seeing how he'd be able to make our PP any worse than it already is, and he put up some monster PP numbers back in his day here. So on paper, you take away the players' names and histories here and he's as good an option as any other guy out there. Now maybe HuGo can swing a trade for someone we haven't considered. Or if Letang or Klingberg wants to sign for 2 years or Petry wants to stay, we don't need to have this conversation. But otherwise, I'm waiting for someone to tell me, objectively, what a better option is, and Wideman isn't it.

[habs1952]

I'd prefer Petry over PK. 

[BigTed3]

21 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

I'd prefer Petry over PK. 

Pretty sure almost everyone does. The question is whether Petry wants to stay and whether HuGo agrees to trade him. I think there will be teams that want him over the summer when they have flexibility to take him on. He's shown he can still play.

[electron58]

42 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Pretty sure almost everyone does. The question is whether Petry wants to stay and whether HuGo agrees to trade him. I think there will be teams that want him over the summer when they have flexibility to take him on. He's shown he can still play.

I agree. I think Jeff Petry will be traded to an American team, and I agree, P.K.Subban, on a 1 or 2 year reasonable contract is certainly doable. Player deployment can always skew their stats.

[CaptWelly]

3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Again, I'm not suggesting PK should be Plan A and I'm not suggesting we should go anywhere near a multi-year deal with him. I'm saying that if he's willing to take a one-year prove-it deal for 4.5M and we can't convince Petry to stay and can't convince Letang to sign for 3 years or less, then Subban is the best UFA option out there for us at right D, and that includes Wideman, who was heavily sheltered on the 3rd pairing last year. As well as Wideman did in his assigned role, he's nowhere close to being able to play in the top 4, so we still need someone who can (because Savard can't either and Barron is a huge question mark). Now if we fall to 3 in the draft, maybe we're looking at Jiricek or Nemec and we decide to throw them right in, but otherwise, look at the UFA list and tell me which RHD man is signing here at a reasonable term and cap hit who can play the top 4. There aren't many options there, if any.

Meanwhile, despite Subban being a shadow of his former self, he's still posted a positive Corsi in 7 of his last 8 seasons. And he's been a positive relative Corsi player in each of his 12 seasons in the league. That means that his team has always done better with him on the ice than with him off of it, including each of his 3 seasons in NJ. And yes, in case you're wondering, the Preds were better with Subban on than with Josi on two of the three years Subban played there. So Subban is still driving play at a better-than-average level. Why are his point totals falling a bit then? Pretty simple, actually. He's getting next to no PP time any more. He played just 43 minutes of PP last year in NJ and had 0 PP points. But his 5v5 production is still on par with what he produced as a Hab... his 5v5 goals per 60 minutes of ice this year was 0.24. Comparatively, in his time as a Canadien, he put up rates of 0.20, 0.04, 0.35, 0.16, 0.27, and 0.19. So his 5v5 goal production was actually better this year than in 4 of his 6 seasons as a Hab. With points per 60 minutes, it's the same story. This year, he hit 0.96 per 60. As a Hab, he posted rates of 0.84, 0.79, 0.98, 0.93, 1.21, and 1.21. So again, his current rate is better than 3 of his 6 seasons as a Hab.

So look, I know there are people here who dislike Subban and people who simply don't want to bring back old players. But if we forget that PK ever played here and looked objectively at the numbers, PK's possession numbers are still pretty good, much better than Savard's for example. And his production at 5v5 is on par with his prime. What has dropped off is the amount of time he gets on the PP and consequently his production there. Quite frankly, I have a hard time seeing how he'd be able to make our PP any worse than it already is, and he put up some monster PP numbers back in his day here. So on paper, you take away the players' names and histories here and he's as good an option as any other guy out there. Now maybe HuGo can swing a trade for someone we haven't considered. Or if Letang or Klingberg wants to sign for 2 years or Petry wants to stay, we don't need to have this conversation. But otherwise, I'm waiting for someone to tell me, objectively, what a better option is, and Wideman isn't it.

There's always more to it with Subban though. Otherwise N.Y. Jersey would at least offer him something. It also doesn't seem like a lot of other teams are waiting in line for Subban. I don't think from Slew foot to just having to be all about me, that Subban is the type of player you want your young defenseman learning from.

[KRH]

Who would you rather have in the locker room, Petry or Subban?

[BigTed3]

8 hours ago, electron58 said:

I agree. I think Jeff Petry will be traded to an American team, and I agree, P.K.Subban, on a 1 or 2 year reasonable contract is certainly doable. Player deployment can always skew their stats.

Subban has pretty much always had the toughest match-ups to face. He's been playing against a lot of the other team's top lines with NJ and it was similar when he was here in Montreal, where he was often tasked with shutting down the likes of Crosby and Ovechkin. That's one reason I think he could be a guy we can sign for a year and have him play the top 4 successfully while we wait for our young guys to develop.

7 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

There's always more to it with Subban though. Otherwise N.Y. Jersey would at least offer him something. It also doesn't seem like a lot of other teams are waiting in line for Subban. I don't think from Slew foot to just having to be all about me, that Subban is the type of player you want your young defenseman learning from.

I don't think there were teams lining up for him at 9M a year. I do think there will be takers on a short prove-it deal.

1 hour ago, KRH said:

Who would you rather have in the locker room, Petry or Subban?

I'd rather Petry in general. That said, Subban was popular with most of his teammates when he was here. Most of them have said that. Subban's problem was that Therrien was an awful person who dragged him through the mud.