2021-22 State of the Habs

[kinot-2]

Congratulations to Montreal Canadiens forward, Josh Anderson on making the 2022 IIHF World Hockey Championship roster for Team Canada!

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

https://thehockeywriters.com/montreal-canadiens-price-cap-hit-what-if-2022-23/?src=rss

What If… Canadiens Got Price’s Cap Hit off the Books?

 

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Its an interesting read and certainly makes one think that this is probably a better team without price than with... not because he's not still capable of being great - last year's playoff run proved that- but because he's injured a lot & adding 3 or 4 pieces in his place, that will actually play on a nightly basis, would be huge. 

If we managed to get out from Price's salary, then I certainly wouldn't want to spend it on Letang, Husso, and Copp. I just don't see us being competitive for a Cup next year, and as such, I don't see much point in trying to bring in short-term bandaid solutions. There has to be vision to build towards a Cup window, be it in 2-3 years or 4-5 years. I'd rather not prop ourselves up for 1-2 years so we're a mid-level team, then have those signed players age and regress while our core hits its peak, and I'm not convinced that that trio of players is either signed for two years or less or is of particular value in 3-5 years (ie the gamble is worth more than the benefit). Of the three, I'm not against signing Husso, but to me, he's getting tandem money to play with Allen and should be in the 3-3.5M range to make it worth it to us.

[habsisme]

41 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 

If we managed to get out from Price's salary, then I certainly wouldn't want to spend it on Letang, Husso, and Copp. I just don't see us being competitive for a Cup next year, and as such, I don't see much point in trying to bring in short-term bandaid solutions. There has to be vision to build towards a Cup window, be it in 2-3 years or 4-5 years. I'd rather not prop ourselves up for 1-2 years so we're a mid-level team, then have those signed players age and regress while our core hits its peak, and I'm not convinced that that trio of players is either signed for two years or less or is of particular value in 3-5 years (ie the gamble is worth more than the benefit). Of the three, I'm not against signing Husso, but to me, he's getting tandem money to play with Allen and should be in the 3-3.5M range to make it worth it to us.

Agreed on everything. Honestly the best thing for us (not for Price) is for another year of uncertainty and then some kind of conclusion after that. I still think he can play if he's healthy and if he's not healthy it will be another Weber contract so the cap hit won't be there. I guess the one nice thing about this is that one way or another I think Price never plays a game for another team

[electron58]

5 hours ago, habsisme said:

Aside from that I don't see any reason why it wouldn't happen between Stanley Cup and draft day. I'd be surprised if it happened earlier (or later). 

The draft is in Montreal.  I can see a trade on the draft floor,  for ultra dramatic effect. It will happen at the draft.

[electron58]

One of the worst kept secrets of the Montreal Canadiens season is that Samuel Montembeault was playing injured. Since January, everyone had doubts that the Becancour native had issues with his wrist. All that was finally confirmed as Montembeault had surgery to repair tendons in his wrist.  Montembeault’s surgery will put him on the shelf for up to 8 weeks. He should be fully rehabilitated and ready to go for training camp in September.

The 25 year old will become a restricted free agent this summer. With the uncertainty regarding Carey Price’s future, it won’t come as a surprise to see him serve as Jake Allen’s backup next season.

[ramcharger440]

Better after the draft lottery!

[electron58]

At the 2022 Draft Floor, When it is Montreal's turn, Gary Bettman announces  "We have a trade."

The New York Rangers have acquired Mike Hoffman(LW,RW), Jake Allen(G) & the Montreal Canadiens 2022-1st OA pick, for 
Alexis Lafrenière(LW,RW), Vitali Kravtsov(RW), Braden Schneider(RD), Alexandar Georgiev(G), & the New York Rangers 2022-1st   round pick.

We have another trade!    The Arizona Coyotes have acquired the contract of Shea Weber(RD), Paul Byron(LW) & Montreal's 3rd round draft pick from the Montreal Canadiens, in exchange for Carolina's 1st round pick (previously acquired from Montreal.) 

We have another, nother trade! The Montreal Canadiens have acquired Pierre Luc Dubois(C) from the Winnipeg Jets, in exchange for Calgary's 1st. round pick, Carolina's 1st. round pick, Ryan Poehling(C), Christian Dvorak(C), & Kale Clague(LD).

We're not done yet folks.  The Philadelphia Flyers have acquire Jeff Petry(RD) & the New York Rangers 1st round pick from the Montreal Canadiens for Philadelphia's 1st round pick (5 OA) & Travis Sanheim(LD).

This leaves the Habs with 1 pick in the first round (5 OA), 2 - 2nd round picks, and 2 - 3rd round picks.

Leaves us with Nick Suzuki, PLD, Jake Evans & Laurent Dauphin at center.

Right Wingers are Josh Anderson, Vitali Kravtsov, Joel Armia, Brendan Gallagher

Left Wingers are Cole Caufield, Alexis Lafrenière, Rem Pitlick, Mike Pezzetta

Spare Forwards  Jesse Ylonen, Joshua Roy,  Rafaël Harvey-Pinard,

Right Defensemen Braden Schneider, David Savard, Chris Wideman?????

Left   Defensemen  Alexander Romanov, Joel Edmundson, Travis Sanheim

Spare D                  Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle

Goalies are Alexander Georgiev, Carey Price ??????, Samuel Montembeault??????

The draft arena will be buzzing!  Pretty radical trades by an ultra opportunistic management team. Plus, with the 5th OA pick, we'll get a blue chip prospect. Habs fill their their Francophone quota with 2 extremely high end players. So, Could this work??? (I'm sure I missed some things, but, I was delirious when I typed this out) Can we improve on this? Remember, we have to give, to get.

[kinot-2]

11 minutes ago, electron58 said:

At the 2022 Draft Floor, When it is Montreal's turn, Gary Bettman announces  "We have a trade."

The New York Rangers have acquired Mike Hoffman(LW,RW), Jake Allen(G) & the Montreal Canadiens 2022-1st OA pick, for 
Alexis Lafrenière(LW,RW), Vitali Kravtsov(RW), Braden Schneider(RD), Alexandar Georgiev(G), & the New York Rangers 2022-1st   round pick.

We have another trade!    The Arizona Coyotes have acquired the contract of Shea Weber(RD), Paul Byron(LW) & Montreal's 3rd round draft pick from the Montreal Canadiens, in exchange for Carolina's 1st round pick (previously acquired from Montreal.) 

We have another, nother trade! The Montreal Canadiens have acquired Pierre Luc Dubois(C) from the Winnipeg Jets, in exchange for Calgary's 1st. round pick, Carolina's 1st. round pick, Ryan Poehling(C), Christian Dvorak(C), & Kale Clague(LD).

We're not done yet folks.  The Philadelphia Flyers have acquire Jeff Petry(RD) & the New York Rangers 1st round pick from the Montreal Canadiens for Philadelphia's 1st round pick (5 OA) & Travis Sanheim(LD).

This leaves the Habs with 1 pick in the first round (5 OA), 2 - 2nd round picks, and 2 - 3rd round picks.

Leaves us with Nick Suzuki, PLD, Jake Evans & Laurent Dauphin at center.

Right Wingers are Josh Anderson, Vitali Kravtsov, Joel Armia, Brendan Gallagher

Left Wingers are Cole Caufield, Alexis Lafrenière, Rem Pitlick, Mike Pezzetta

Spare Forwards  Jesse Ylonen, Joshua Roy,  Rafaël Harvey-Pinard,

Right Defensemen Braden Schneider, David Savard, Chris Wideman?????

Left   Defensemen  Alexander Romanov, Joel Edmundson, Travis Sanheim

Spare D                  Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle

Goalies are Alexander Georgiev, Carey Price ??????, Samuel Montembeault??????

The draft arena will be buzzing!  Pretty radical trades by an ultra opportunistic management team. Plus, with the 5th OA pick, we'll get a blue chip prospect. Habs fill their their Francophone quota with 2 extremely high end players. So, Could this work??? (I'm sure I missed some things, but, I was delirious when I typed this out) Can we improve on this? Remember, we have to give, to get.

Uh,,,, is this your fanatasy, or do you have a source?

[electron58]

37 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

Uh,,,, is this your fanatasy, or do you have a source?

Does it seem fantastic? Plausible?

[AH64]

2 hours ago, electron58 said:

At the 2022 Draft Floor, When it is Montreal's turn, Gary Bettman announces  "We have a trade."

The New York Rangers have acquired Mike Hoffman(LW,RW), Jake Allen(G) & the Montreal Canadiens 2022-1st OA pick, for 
Alexis Lafrenière(LW,RW), Vitali Kravtsov(RW), Braden Schneider(RD), Alexandar Georgiev(G), & the New York Rangers 2022-1st   round pick.

We have another trade!    The Arizona Coyotes have acquired the contract of Shea Weber(RD), Paul Byron(LW) & Montreal's 3rd round draft pick from the Montreal Canadiens, in exchange for Carolina's 1st round pick (previously acquired from Montreal.) 

We have another, nother trade! The Montreal Canadiens have acquired Pierre Luc Dubois(C) from the Winnipeg Jets, in exchange for Calgary's 1st. round pick, Carolina's 1st. round pick, Ryan Poehling(C), Christian Dvorak(C), & Kale Clague(LD).

We're not done yet folks.  The Philadelphia Flyers have acquire Jeff Petry(RD) & the New York Rangers 1st round pick from the Montreal Canadiens for Philadelphia's 1st round pick (5 OA) & Travis Sanheim(LD).

This leaves the Habs with 1 pick in the first round (5 OA), 2 - 2nd round picks, and 2 - 3rd round picks.

Leaves us with Nick Suzuki, PLD, Jake Evans & Laurent Dauphin at center.

Right Wingers are Josh Anderson, Vitali Kravtsov, Joel Armia, Brendan Gallagher

Left Wingers are Cole Caufield, Alexis Lafrenière, Rem Pitlick, Mike Pezzetta

Spare Forwards  Jesse Ylonen, Joshua Roy,  Rafaël Harvey-Pinard,

Right Defensemen Braden Schneider, David Savard, Chris Wideman?????

Left   Defensemen  Alexander Romanov, Joel Edmundson, Travis Sanheim

Spare D                  Justin Barron, Jordan Harris, Kaiden Guhle

Goalies are Alexander Georgiev, Carey Price ??????, Samuel Montembeault??????

The draft arena will be buzzing!  Pretty radical trades by an ultra opportunistic management team. Plus, with the 5th OA pick, we'll get a blue chip prospect. Habs fill their their Francophone quota with 2 extremely high end players. So, Could this work??? (I'm sure I missed some things, but, I was delirious when I typed this out) Can we improve on this? Remember, we have to give, to get.

mk ultra right?

[jennifer_rocket]

7 hours ago, electron58 said:

Does it seem fantastic? Plausible?

I think you're correct in that Montreal will makes trades during the draft weekend. Moving Shea Weber's contract out seems pretty plausible. Perhaps trading Petry as well. Not sure about the deals you've proposed (I imagine something simpler happening).

However, I doubt Montreal moves the first overall pick. I really don't want to trade it for Lafreniere. I think we'd be better off taking our chances with Wright.

[claremont]

We can complain about some of our mismanaged contracts (Hoffman, Armia, Byron, maybe even Gallagher), but how would you like to be in the Minny Wild shoes? GM Guerin went all in this year - with big salary buyout dumps of Parise and Suter. No LTIR relief, and by spotrac web site on the cap, they have $5.6M of cap room for next year. With that plus perhaps another $1M in cap room increase from $81.5, maybe $6.6M. They have to resign Fiala (at least $6M alone) and a backup goalie to Talbot. 

They were eliminated by St. Louis in the first round, so the Wild appear to be in bubble team status to just make the playoffs next year. This will be a team desperate to unload some salaries and their defense is a mess. 3 LHD with NMC or NTC, plus Jon Merrill signed for 3 more years at $1.2M. That's 4 LHD committed and they have 3 bonafide LHD up and comers in Carson Lambos (1st round 26th overall), Ryan O'Rourke (2nd round 39th overall), and Daemon Hunt 3rd round 65th overall. They may have drafted BPA but with that many LHD blocking their youth, now it's a difficult trading time. 

[Regis22]

Habs hired Christopher Boucher as Director Hockey Analytics . We’re moving into a new age folks …..no more old time hockey decisions

 

 

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

However, I doubt Montreal moves the first overall pick. I really don't want to trade it for Lafreniere. I think we'd be better off taking our chances with Wright.

I agree that its incredibly unlikely we trade 1st overall. Its been over 4 decades since we've drafted there.  

If our team really believes that Laff is still on track to be an impact player i dont mind trading for him, but wouldnt consider moving my 1st overall to get him, even if there's more pieces coming back. 

Id certainly be interested in Laff as part of a Petry deal or our 2nd first rounder but that would be it in terms of trading our 1st rounder for Laff.. 

[electron58]

4 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

However, I doubt Montreal moves the first overall pick. I really don't want to trade it for Lafreniere. I think we'd be better off taking our chances with Wright.

 

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

I agree that its incredibly unlikely we trade 1st overall. Its been over 4 decades since we've drafted there.  

If our team really believes that Laff is still on track to be an impact player i dont mind trading for him, but wouldnt consider moving my 1st overall to get him, even if there's more pieces coming back. 

And I have no doubt,  that you guys are right. But, think about it. First of all, I  don't trade #1OA, unless plan 'B' happens, and that is getting PLD. We always say  that we can't keep everyone.  We let many draft picks walk, and we mess up many others. Are we giving up enough for PLD? We can tweak it if necessary. But here's a local boy, in his prime, or just about, that wants to be here. If we get him, then the fans would go crazy. We'd have to sign him first, before the trade happened. As for the Ranger trade? The Rangers have been looking for a 2nd line center for a couple years. They're not keen on Strome. Again, they can't keep everyone. We always talk on here, about trying to grab a player,  before they explode on the scene.  Lafrenière,  could be that type of player, and he is local. 1st OA, is worth a King's Ransom. Plus the rest are quality players, not necessarily in the Rangers plans. We upgrade our roster and will be able to compete. Maybe we swap out Gallagher for Hoffman.  I don't know. But HUGO has a chance to hit a home run. Will it happen? Maybe not. But would you really be upset? I know that I wouldn't be. Plus,  a lot of people aren't convinced that Wright may not go first. I do both these trades, as you have a pretty good idea of what you're getting.  Maybe the Philly trade isn't plausible.  The Arizona trade is. Again, I  too don't think these trades happen, but if they did, would you really be upset? or, would you be pleased?

[maas_art]

33 minutes ago, electron58 said:

 

And I have no doubt,  that you guys are right. But, think about it. First of all, I  don't trade #1OA, unless plan 'B' happens, and that is getting PLD. We always say  that we can't keep everyone.  We let many draft picks walk, and we mess up many others. Are we giving up enough for PLD? We can tweak it if necessary. But here's a local boy, in his prime, or just about, that wants to be here. If we get him, then the fans would go crazy. We'd have to sign him first, before the trade happened. As for the Ranger trade? The Rangers have been looking for a 2nd line center for a couple years. They're not keen on Strome. Again, they can't keep everyone. We always talk on here, about trying to grab a player,  before they explode on the scene.  Lafrenière,  could be that type of player, and he is local. 1st OA, is worth a King's Ransom. Plus the rest are quality players, not necessarily in the Rangers plans. We upgrade our roster and will be able to compete. Maybe we swap out Gallagher for Hoffman.  I don't know. But HUGO has a chance to hit a home run. Will it happen? Maybe not. But would you really be upset? I know that I wouldn't be. Plus,  a lot of people aren't convinced that Wright may not go first. I do both these trades, as you have a pretty good idea of what you're getting.  Maybe the Philly trade isn't plausible.  The Arizona trade is. Again, I  too don't think these trades happen, but if they did, would you really be upset? or, would you be pleased?

If you want to go after PLD thats fine but I wouldnt want him on my roster instead of Wright (or Cooley if the team really thinks he's the best choice).

Dubois will be 24 next month.  He's likely got 6 prime years left.  Wright and cooley are both 18. Thats 6 years younger.. thats nothing to sneeze at, especially when you factor in 3 years on an ECL for those guys. 

The other thing is: while I like Dubois and I think he does have untapped potential, he's still never scored more than Nick Suzuki in a single year (61 and 60 points were his 2 best years). Thats nothing to sneeze at, he's a great all -round player, but its not like you'd be giving up 6 years of Wright or cooley for a 90 point scorer. We're talking about 2 young players that may end up considerably better than PLD when all is said and done. 

Id be more than happy to explore the idea of gettign Dubois (or Laff etc) and playing them on one of Suzuki or Wright's wings. Honestly anyone other than this year's (or next year's) 1st overall, Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov and a few young d prospects like Guhle or Harris etc and Id probably listen to all offers. 

 

 

[ramcharger440]

24 minutes ago, maas_art said:

If you want to go after PLD thats fine but I wouldnt want him on my roster instead of Wright (or Cooley if the team really thinks he's the best choice).

Dubois will be 24 next month.  He's likely got 6 prime years left.  Wright and cooley are both 18. Thats 6 years younger.. thats nothing to sneeze at, especially when you factor in 3 years on an ECL for those guys. 

The other thing is: while I like Dubois and I think he does have untapped potential, he's still never scored more than Nick Suzuki in a single year (61 and 60 points were his 2 best years). Thats nothing to sneeze at, he's a great all -round player, but its not like you'd be giving up 6 years of Wright or cooley for a 90 point scorer. We're talking about 2 young players that may end up considerably better than PLD when all is said and done. 

Id be more than happy to explore the idea of gettign Dubois (or Laff etc) and playing them on one of Suzuki or Wright's wings. Honestly anyone other than this year's (or next year's) 1st overall, Suzuki, Caufield, Romanov and a few young d prospects like Guhle or Harris etc and Id probably listen to all offers. 

 

 

Yeah I am with you on this, I have seen Wright play in person a few times he is pretty special. It would have to be a silly deal for me to not take him for my team!

[electron58]

4 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Habs hired Christopher Boucher as Director Hockey Analytics . We’re moving into a new age folks …..no more old time hockey decisions

 

 

Another slap @ the previous regime.

[jennifer_rocket]

4 hours ago, Regis22 said:

Habs hired Christopher Boucher as Director Hockey Analytics . We’re moving into a new age folks …..no more old time hockey decisions

 

 

Cool. Glad to see the team putting more focus on analytics as we build for the next 3-4 years.

[jennifer_rocket]

Unrelated, but I was looking at the buyout calculator for Hoffman on Capfriendly and we'd end up with a $1.1666 million cap hit for the next four seasons. An option if we have cap issues next year.

[maas_art]

5 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Cool. Glad to see the team putting more focus on analytics as we build for the next 3-4 years.

Agree. While I dont put as much stock in advanced stats as some, having all the info is key. Just to ignore it like the old regime is foolhardy.

I realize that teams built on Sabermetrics tend not to be winners but that doesnt mean that there isnt useful information there to be presented alongside tradtional methods of evaluation. 

[maas_art]

4 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Unrelated, but I was looking at the buyout calculator for Hoffman on Capfriendly and we'd end up with a $1.1666 million cap hit for the next four seasons. An option if we have cap issues next year.

i suspect that HuGo has a plan to deal with the cap.
I also dont think Hoffman is completely untreatable. Yeah, he's got 2 years left at $4.5m but even on last year's abysmal team he still scored at just under 20 goals for an 82 game season. He's a career 27g player and he is only 32. That deal would interest someone at least to the point where they would give you a 5th rounder or something i am sure.  You may not have many teams interested but you only need one ;)   For the same reasons we signed him last year when the team thought we were contenders, some team out there that wants 25 ish goals from a bottom six winger will have interest in him imho. 

[jennifer_rocket]

5 hours ago, claremont said:

We can complain about some of our mismanaged contracts (Hoffman, Armia, Byron, maybe even Gallagher), but how would you like to be in the Minny Wild shoes? GM Guerin went all in this year - with big salary buyout dumps of Parise and Suter. No LTIR relief, and by spotrac web site on the cap, they have $5.6M of cap room for next year. With that plus perhaps another $1M in cap room increase from $81.5, maybe $6.6M. They have to resign Fiala (at least $6M alone) and a backup goalie to Talbot. 

They were eliminated by St. Louis in the first round, so the Wild appear to be in bubble team status to just make the playoffs next year. This will be a team desperate to unload some salaries and their defense is a mess. 3 LHD with NMC or NTC, plus Jon Merrill signed for 3 more years at $1.2M. That's 4 LHD committed and they have 3 bonafide LHD up and comers in Carson Lambos (1st round 26th overall), Ryan O'Rourke (2nd round 39th overall), and Daemon Hunt 3rd round 65th overall. They may have drafted BPA but with that many LHD blocking their youth, now it's a difficult trading time. 

I think Minnesota has options though. They could probably easily move out Dumba in a trade. He has a modified-NTC (10-team no trade list), but I bet they could save $6 million right there, if needed. Not ideal, given that he's one of their RHD, but... might be a necessity.

But yeah, those Parise and Suter buy-outs are going to kill them for the next three seasons. Oh man. That is some garbage salary cap management.

[maas_art]

6 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I think Minnesota has options though. They could probably easily move out Dumba in a trade. He has a modified-NTC (10-team no trade list), but I bet they could save $6 million right there, if needed. Not ideal, given that he's one of their RHD, but... might be a necessity.

But yeah, those Parise and Suter buy-outs are going to kill them for the next three seasons. Oh man. That is some garbage salary cap management.

Dumba for Savard. DO IT! 

[claremont]

54 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I think Minnesota has options though. They could probably easily move out Dumba in a trade. He has a modified-NTC (10-team no trade list), but I bet they could save $6 million right there, if needed. Not ideal, given that he's one of their RHD, but... might be a necessity.

But yeah, those Parise and Suter buy-outs are going to kill them for the next three seasons. Oh man. That is some garbage salary cap management.

I would love Dumba on our team while we wait for our RHD Barron, and whoever we likely draft with our 2nd round Calgary pick or pick #33 to develop but unfortunately we are not loaded with trade material beyond our draft picks and I don't believe we should give them any 1st rounder in the Bedard draft year or the Wright pick. If we took on Dumba's contract for 1 year at $6M, might as well pay extra for Letang but then again Letang will come with longer term. 

You are correct the Wild have trading options to other teams but I don't see them dealing from a position of strength when teams know their cap is messed up.

We have some LHD prospects but the Wild are stacked at that position and have Marco Rossi coming up for their next forward in the making. I could see them trying to move Zuccarello or one or more of their forwards

1 hour ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Unrelated, but I was looking at the buyout calculator for Hoffman on Capfriendly and we'd end up with a $1.1666 million cap hit for the next four seasons. An option if we have cap issues next year.

I believe mgmt. sees next year as a development year vs. the big splash free agent acquisition. I suspect we limp along with Hoffman, Armia, Savard contracts, and at least get Byron and Drouin off the books  for $8.9M after next year.. The year after next, assuming performance does not substantially change, I could see the buyout of Hoffman and Savard unless we could not do some form of salary retention trades in June, 2023.

HuGO have a lot of dominoes to fall a) Weber contract trade - which I think is a sure thing b) Petry trade - will he go with salary retention or convince him to stay c) Price's health evaluation / risk d) any feelers out there for Gally contract  - LA? e) Armia, Hoffman or Savard pick up their performance f) Trade of Edmundson at the trade deadline if he is healthy with an extra year of term and / or Byron, Drouin g) Dvorak - does his performance pickup and he becomes part of the core at Centre?