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2021-22 If i were GM


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These are the players I would consider moving on from after this season (assumption that we tank the season and go for a rebuild). I think these guys have value and could bring back draft choices and/or prospects. I am assuming Weber is "retired" and has no trade value. I have not included any UFAs.

I am not advocating trading all of these players, but these are the ones I shop around.

Brendan Gallagher
Jonathan Drouin
Josh Anderson
Mike Hoffman
Tyler Toffoli
David Savard
Carey Price

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 10/31/2021 at 9:27 AM, jennifer_rocket said:

These are the players I would consider moving on from after this season (assumption that we tank the season and go for a rebuild). I think these guys have value and could bring back draft choices and/or prospects. I am assuming Weber is "retired" and has no trade value. I have not included any UFAs.

I am not advocating trading all of these players, but these are the ones I shop around.

Brendan Gallagher
Jonathan Drouin
Josh Anderson
Mike Hoffman
Tyler Toffoli
David Savard
Carey Price

Gallagher, Drouin & Price for sure. The others, I can take or leave.

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14 minutes ago, 26NCounting said:

TBH  I would like to see Anderson and Gallagher both kept if for no other reason than they would be the leaders of the team.  Both players wear their heart on their sleeve and would certainly help younger players.  Also both are still young enough to build around

Anderson most likely stays unless we get an offer that hinges on him. At 27 he should still be useful when the next rebuild comes.

Gallagher is a tough one. I agree with you, he's the kind of guy you want on your team but thats why he also still likely has good trade value.  He's only a couple of years older than Anderson but he's got what 5 more years after this one on that big contract?

We have Gallagher, Petry, Price and Byron as vets who all probably cant live up to their contracts.  I cant see us trading all 4 (nor do we really need to) but 1 or 2 maybe. 

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51 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Anderson most likely stays unless we get an offer that hinges on him. At 27 he should still be useful when the next rebuild comes.

Gallagher is a tough one. I agree with you, he's the kind of guy you want on your team but thats why he also still likely has good trade value.  He's only a couple of years older than Anderson but he's got what 5 more years after this one on that big contract?

We have Gallagher, Petry, Price and Byron as vets who all probably cant live up to their contracts.  I cant see us trading all 4 (nor do we really need to) but 1 or 2 maybe. 

That Gallagher contract scares me, if we could get out of it without retaining salary, I think I'd have to do that, even though I agree it would hurt in the short-term (then again, it would be hard to distinguish this current team and it's leadership from a team full of 18 year olds, so I worry we may be overvaluing leadership here).

Same with Petry and Price: you could justify those contracts as a contender ("ya, last couple years are likely to be bad, but that's okay if we get value early on"), but in a rebuild you want a mix of young players and short-term contracts you can easiliy get rid of.

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^^ Contracts I would want to move in order:

1. Price

2. Savard

3. Gallagher

 

If they were all making the same money, I'd keep Price and Savard would be the first to go, but for the money, getting out from 10M on the cap is a bigger priority when you're not a contender. Savard is dead weight and signing him is looking to be a mistake in the same spectrum as signing Alzner. Gallagher has a scary injury history but if he stays healthy, I think he can still be a 20-goal scorer for several years. He's not worth what we paid him (and I think a large part of the contract is now overpayment for having had him on a discount through his prime) and I would not have offered him the deal we did, but for the money, he gives more return than what we're likely going to get from Savard or Price.

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5 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

^^ Contracts I would want to move in order:

1. Price

2. Savard

3. Gallagher

 

If they were all making the same money, I'd keep Price and Savard would be the first to go, but for the money, getting out from 10M on the cap is a bigger priority when you're not a contender. Savard is dead weight and signing him is looking to be a mistake in the same spectrum as signing Alzner. Gallagher has a scary injury history but if he stays healthy, I think he can still be a 20-goal scorer for several years. He's not worth what we paid him (and I think a large part of the contract is now overpayment for having had him on a discount through his prime) and I would not have offered him the deal we did, but for the money, he gives more return than what we're likely going to get from Savard or Price.

For sure we need to get out from 2 of those contracts.  I don't know if Savard is movable.  We may have to retain with CP.  Gallagher 's contract is going to hurt us going forward. I think Chiarot may have some good value. Hope the Rangers go for him.

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4 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

^^ Contracts I would want to move in order:

1. Price

2. Savard

3. Gallagher

 

If they were all making the same money, I'd keep Price and Savard would be the first to go, but for the money, getting out from 10M on the cap is a bigger priority when you're not a contender. Savard is dead weight and signing him is looking to be a mistake in the same spectrum as signing Alzner. Gallagher has a scary injury history but if he stays healthy, I think he can still be a 20-goal scorer for several years. He's not worth what we paid him (and I think a large part of the contract is now overpayment for having had him on a discount through his prime) and I would not have offered him the deal we did, but for the money, he gives more return than what we're likely going to get from Savard or Price.

I wonder if there's a team out there that feels they are a winner with Carey Price in nets.  I think there was an opportunity in Colorado a couple of years ago... however, since that time a couple of years have come off his contract and, most importantly, we saw him produce an MVP worthy performance this summer with that cinderella run.  "Playoff Price' certainly seems to be a "thing" among pundits so i wonder if a team that feels they are strong everywhere else would give up value for  him.  Obviously you're not getting roster players (maybe an expiring salary dump) but thats not what we want.  Picks, prospects etc.   Thats what the aim should be.  Imagine getting another Suzuki type on defense?  The team acquiring Price would know they would be in tough for a few years but building dynasties is almost impossible now.  If you can make that trade and win even one cup, its a success, regardless of what it does to your roster for the next few years. 

Of course getting Price to sign off on a trade is an entirely different matter. 

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Just now, electron58 said:

For sure we need to get out from 2 of those contracts.  I don't know if Savard is movable.  We may have to retain with CP.  Gallagher 's contract is going to hurt us going forward. I think Chiarot may have some good value. Hope the Rangers go for him.

I think as bad a some guys like Savard have been, rival GMs have historically shown that they think "well, he's on a bad team, he'd be much better next to ______" so they make that deal.  The length of Savard's contract may give pause but honestly I think you could move him if the return was non-roster players and id be absolutely fine with that. Give us a pick or a defenseman or centre that may be a couple of years away.

 

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5 minutes ago, electron58 said:

For sure we need to get out from 2 of those contracts.  I don't know if Savard is movable.  We may have to retain with CP.  Gallagher 's contract is going to hurt us going forward. I think Chiarot may have some good value. Hope the Rangers go for him.

No doubt all three contracts hurt us, though for different reasons. Have to extract value where you can though. Maybe Chiarot can draw a nice return. Maybe Lehkonen as a guy who drew a lot of interest previously (Habs had offers on him) and who can be an effective 3rd liner on a playoff team. He'll be an RFA so no commitment there. Maybe Kulak as an impending UFA although doubt we get more than a 3rd-5th rounder for him. Maybe Jake Allen, after all is said and done, is an attractive option to someone. Drouin now that he's come back from his anxiety is still a young guy on a reasonable contract without much term remaining. There are guys we can still look at trading.

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9 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I wonder if there's a team out there that feels they are a winner with Carey Price in nets.  I think there was an opportunity in Colorado a couple of years ago... however, since that time a couple of years have come off his contract and, most importantly, we saw him produce an MVP worthy performance this summer with that cinderella run.  "Playoff Price' certainly seems to be a "thing" among pundits so i wonder if a team that feels they are strong everywhere else would give up value for  him.  Obviously you're not getting roster players (maybe an expiring salary dump) but thats not what we want.  Picks, prospects etc.   Thats what the aim should be.  Imagine getting another Suzuki type on defense?  The team acquiring Price would know they would be in tough for a few years but building dynasties is almost impossible now.  If you can make that trade and win even one cup, its a success, regardless of what it does to your roster for the next few years. 

Of course getting Price to sign off on a trade is an entirely different matter. 

Problems with Price are term on the contract (this isn't just 1-2 years at 10.5M and Habs likely aren't going to want to eat 50% of that long-term) and health (which is linked to term if you have to think about him being healthy for another 5 years). But I agree there are teams that may think he's the missing piece. Colorado is one. Philly could be another. Toronto has had all kinds of goaltender issues. The Isles could use an upgrade. Dallas could use an upgrade. Edmonton is a big one, and there are others too. Given Price signed off on being exposed to the Seattle draft, I think it means there's room to convince him to move elsewhere. Yes, Seattle is much closer to home, but on maybe a real shot at a Cup is a big thing for him too, especially knowing he's having issues staying on the ice with physical and mental health and knowing how close he came to a Cup last year. Maybe that taste of coming so close and then seeing it all end abruptly for Weber will convince him that he's got to take that chance to win somewhere before he's done. I think after all that's happened in the last year, it actually might not be that hard to convince Price to accept a trade, although I do think he'll limit where he wants to go to teams that are legit threats to win and that fit his geographic wishes or persona. I'd be surprised if he accepts Toronto or Boston, for example, but could see him looking at Edmonton with the start they're off to. Could you, for example, get them to give up Xavier Bourgault, a 2023 1st rounder, and Koskinen as a salary dump in exchange for Price with 25% salary retention?

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16 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think as bad a some guys like Savard have been, rival GMs have historically shown that they think "well, he's on a bad team, he'd be much better next to ______" so they make that deal.  The length of Savard's contract may give pause but honestly I think you could move him if the return was non-roster players and id be absolutely fine with that. Give us a pick or a defenseman or centre that may be a couple of years away.

 

But then you look at Alzner and no one wanted him. People kind of saw that he was just bad. Savard hasn't gotten the publicity of being bad that Alzner had yet, but it's likely coming at some point. At present, Savard's been kind of saved by the fact that they have no other RHD to replace him and that his poor play has been embroiled in the poor play of the entire team, but the stats show he's been the worst defenceman on the team and that he's been bad for many years, so to trade him, we'd need to rely on some old-timer hockey pundit overrating him based on toughness and grit the way Bergevin did.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

^^ Contracts I would want to move in order:

1. Price

2. Savard

3. Gallagher

If they were all making the same money, I'd keep Price and Savard would be the first to go, but for the money, getting out from 10M on the cap is a bigger priority when you're not a contender. Savard is dead weight and signing him is looking to be a mistake in the same spectrum as signing Alzner. Gallagher has a scary injury history but if he stays healthy, I think he can still be a 20-goal scorer for several years. He's not worth what we paid him (and I think a large part of the contract is now overpayment for having had him on a discount through his prime) and I would not have offered him the deal we did, but for the money, he gives more return than what we're likely going to get from Savard or Price.

Based on Performance - all of those players, we would be dealing from a position of weakness whereby some other team does the MB overvalue hope of these players rebounding and picking up their game other than Gallagher. Price's contract is difficult for the NMC and the cap concerns. There's better value in other D in the league vs. Savard and his contract hit / term. 

My Order would be Chiarot (10 team NTC) given that he just scored his 3rd goal and seems to be a presence in our lineup (Edmundson returning and our prospect pool at D is maturing, Then Lehkonen - where has our magical penalty killer gone. Kulak - why lose him for nothing but maybe we can get a 2nd rounder for him. 

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12 minutes ago, claremont said:

Based on Performance - all of those players, we would be dealing from a position of weakness whereby some other team does the MB overvalue hope of these players rebounding and picking up their game other than Gallagher. Price's contract is difficult for the NMC and the cap concerns. There's better value in other D in the league vs. Savard and his contract hit / term. 

My Order would be Chiarot (10 team NTC) given that he just scored his 3rd goal and seems to be a presence in our lineup (Edmundson returning and our prospect pool at D is maturing, Then Lehkonen - where has our magical penalty killer gone. Kulak - why lose him for nothing but maybe we can get a 2nd rounder for him. 

Not talking about who the Habs will trade or should trade this year, moreso which contracts we'd hope to get out from if we had the chance...agreed with you that the 3 guys you listed are better candidates to move at the deadline.

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I don't know how easy it is to move price. If anyone had a serious offer for him, Seattle would have taken him (or should have but who knows with the kraken). I think we have to retain the maximum 50% to move him, but then what's the point of doing that if he's still a good player? So the return has to be significant at that cost. I don't know if anyone is willing to pay that much

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Depending on how comfortable Colorado is with their goaltending, there could be a deal to to be made. I read they might be looking to clear out Girard, since Byram is looking so good. Girard makes $5 million/year. Girard + one of their goalies, maybe we retain the remaining salary difference. Could be something there. Or as I mentioned in an earlier post, a 3way trade with the Rangers, Avs and us involving Chiarot, Girard and something from the Rangers could work too. Girard would add a nice look to our D

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12 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Depending on how comfortable Colorado is with their goaltending, there could be a deal to to be made. I read they might be looking to clear out Girard, since Byram is looking so good. Girard makes $5 million/year. Girard + one of their goalies, maybe we retain the remaining salary difference. Could be something there. Or as I mentioned in an earlier post, a 3way trade with the Rangers, Avs and us involving Chiarot, Girard and something from the Rangers could work too. Girard would add a nice look to our D

my understanding is they want a a forward for Girard but we got plenty of those too! Thing is his contract is a little high, I would do it in a Price deal though

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2 hours ago, habsisme said:

I don't know how easy it is to move price. If anyone had a serious offer for him, Seattle would have taken him (or should have but who knows with the kraken). I think we have to retain the maximum 50% to move him, but then what's the point of doing that if he's still a good player? So the return has to be significant at that cost. I don't know if anyone is willing to pay that much

To be fair he had an NMC that was only waived for Seattle, so no guarantee they would have taken him even if there was a deal. With that said, I suspect you're right: not a lot of teams have 10 million sitting around and most GMs realize locking in for that much for that long for an older player  is a problem. Retain salary to make him a 5 million player and I think you have a lot of interest though.

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

But then you look at Alzner and no one wanted him. People kind of saw that he was just bad. Savard hasn't gotten the publicity of being bad that Alzner had yet, but it's likely coming at some point. At present, Savard's been kind of saved by the fact that they have no other RHD to replace him and that his poor play has been embroiled in the poor play of the entire team, but the stats show he's been the worst defenceman on the team and that he's been bad for many years, so to trade him, we'd need to rely on some old-timer hockey pundit overrating him based on toughness and grit the way Bergevin did.

Yep, as much as we like to believe there's some bad GM we can just dump bad contracts for big name players onto, in reality most teams are relatively well run nowadays, they'll see what's going on as much as we do.

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1 minute ago, Graeme-1 said:

To be fair he had an NMC that was only waived for Seattle, so no guarantee they would have taken him even if there was a deal. With that said, I suspect you're right: not a lot of teams have 10 million sitting around and most GMs realize locking in for that much for that long for an older player  is a problem. Retain salary to make him a 5 million player and I think you have a lot of interest though.

you're right! Yes, there may not have been options to trade him for that reason. Yeah, I agree, but it better be something significant if I'm keeping a 5 million cap hit for 5 years

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51 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

Depending on how comfortable Colorado is with their goaltending, there could be a deal to to be made. I read they might be looking to clear out Girard, since Byram is looking so good. Girard makes $5 million/year. Girard + one of their goalies, maybe we retain the remaining salary difference. Could be something there. Or as I mentioned in an earlier post, a 3way trade with the Rangers, Avs and us involving Chiarot, Girard and something from the Rangers could work too. Girard would add a nice look to our D

 

34 minutes ago, habsisme said:

my understanding is they want a a forward for Girard but we got plenty of those too! Thing is his contract is a little high, I would do it in a Price deal though

Colorado would be a reasonable landing spot in terms of giving Price a place to win, and they clearly need an upgrade in net. I imagine they'd prefer to swap us Kuemper, who makes more money and then Girard if they want to dump his contract too. Colorado's prospect pool isn't great because they've traded away a fair number of picks. I doubt they give up Byram or Newhook. They have Kaut and Bowers, who don't interest me all that much, and they have a RHD man named Justin Barron who could be a consideration. So I think ultimately we'd want to ask for a 1st rounder, and in Colorado's case it would be their 2023 pick, since they already traded this year's. If they want a forward, they will want someone who fits under the cap like Lehkonen (who was rumored to be of interest to them 2 years ago). Maybe they like Drouin too, but it would require us to take back more salary.

So ultimately, I would consider a deal like

Price, Lehkonen, and a 2022 3rd rounder for Kuemper, Girard, Jost, and a 2023 1st rounder.

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5 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Problems with Price are term on the contract (this isn't just 1-2 years at 10.5M and Habs likely aren't going to want to eat 50% of that long-term) and health (which is linked to term if you have to think about him being healthy for another 5 years). But I agree there are teams that may think he's the missing piece. Colorado is one. Philly could be another. Toronto has had all kinds of goaltender issues. The Isles could use an upgrade. Dallas could use an upgrade. Edmonton is a big one, and there are others too. Given Price signed off on being exposed to the Seattle draft, I think it means there's room to convince him to move elsewhere. Yes, Seattle is much closer to home, but on maybe a real shot at a Cup is a big thing for him too, especially knowing he's having issues staying on the ice with physical and mental health and knowing how close he came to a Cup last year. Maybe that taste of coming so close and then seeing it all end abruptly for Weber will convince him that he's got to take that chance to win somewhere before he's done. I think after all that's happened in the last year, it actually might not be that hard to convince Price to accept a trade, although I do think he'll limit where he wants to go to teams that are legit threats to win and that fit his geographic wishes or persona. I'd be surprised if he accepts Toronto or Boston, for example, but could see him looking at Edmonton with the start they're off to. Could you, for example, get them to give up Xavier Bourgault, a 2023 1st rounder, and Koskinen as a salary dump in exchange for Price with 25% salary retention?

I like that deal! Might have to get rid of bergebin to make that type of trade.

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6 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Could you, for example, get them to give up Xavier Bourgault, a 2023 1st rounder, and Koskinen as a salary dump in exchange for Price with 25% salary retention?

I would be so all over that.   Would make Col. a legit SC contender.  Would they do it? Not sure but I have a sense they might strongly consider it.  It would screw them up in the long term but would probably position them as favourites for 1-2 years. 

 

6 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

But then you look at Alzner and no one wanted him. People kind of saw that he was just bad. Savard hasn't gotten the publicity of being bad that Alzner had yet, but it's likely coming at some point. At present, Savard's been kind of saved by the fact that they have no other RHD to replace him and that his poor play has been embroiled in the poor play of the entire team, but the stats show he's been the worst defenceman on the team and that he's been bad for many years, so to trade him, we'd need to rely on some old-timer hockey pundit overrating him based on toughness and grit the way Bergevin did.

The difference though is that we were a pretty decent team - alzner looked horrible next to Weber, horrible next to Petry and horrible on the 3rd pair. There was no place for him.  Savard has landed firmly in the middle of a tire-fire and i coudl see a rival GM saying "oh, play him next to ____ and he'll be great in our system" Not saying it will work - and certainly term is a huge factor but i think there's more potential to trade Savard than there was to trade alzner. 
 

2 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

To be fair he had an NMC that was only waived for Seattle, so no guarantee they would have taken him even if there was a deal. With that said, I suspect you're right: not a lot of teams have 10 million sitting around and most GMs realize locking in for that much for that long for an older player  is a problem. Retain salary to make him a 5 million player and I think you have a lot of interest though.

I do not think that Carey or Angela want to leave - they both have unfinished business in montreal - but i also think that if there was an opportunity for CP to be a legit contender, he'd waive it.    So like BT said above, i dont think he's going to some random team but if Edmonton or Colorado were in a position to trade for him,  I believe CP would think long and hard about playing for a different team. 

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18 hours ago, maas_art said:

I do not think that Carey or Angela want to leave - they both have unfinished business in montreal - but i also think that if there was an opportunity for CP to be a legit contender, he'd waive it.    So like BT said above, i dont think he's going to some random team but if Edmonton or Colorado were in a position to trade for him,  I believe CP would think long and hard about playing for a different team. 

I have to believe,  that to the right team, either Colorado,  or Edmonton,  he'd jump at the opportunity.  Firstly,  it would do wonders for his mental health. He'd be closer to home, and his family support team. I'm sure that we'd have to retain salary. As for unfinished business? That will never happen for him in Montreal.  He kept this team from being really bad, for a lotta years.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I mentioned Allen as a guy we could look at dealing. Well here's a comparable who was just traded this past off-season: Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper was dealt for a 1st, a 3rd, and a pretty good D prospect in Conor Timmins. So let's look at the numbers:

- Kuemper is 31, just a few months older than the 31 year-old Jake Allen. No real difference here.

- Kuemper is an impending UFA, so had this one year left on his deal at 4.5M. Allen has one more year left after this one but at 2.875M. Arguably, Allen's contract is a better option for a team to acquire, holding his rights for two playoff runs instead of one while paying less against the cap.

- Kuemper last year played in 27 games and posted a 2.56 GAA and .907 save percentage. Allen played in 29 games and posted a 2.68 GAA and .907 save percentage. Pretty similar.

- The year before, Kuemper played 29 games and posted a 2.22 GAA and .928 save percentage. In 24 games, Allen posted a 2.15 GAA and .927 save percentage. Pretty similar yet again. Kuemper went 3.47 GAA and .913 in the post-season that year, while Allen went 1.89 GAA and .935.

- For their careers, Kuemper has played 255 games and has a 2.49 GAA and .916. Allen has played 332 games and has 2.53 GAA and .912.

These guys have stats that are almost the mirror image of each other, they're the same age, and as noted, Allen has more experience and what I think is a better contract. So if that's the comparable, I am 100% looking around to offer Jake Allen if the return is a 1st and a blue chip prospect.

So who might be interested? I just posted in the rumor thread that the Oilers are apparently in on Chiarot. Well how about swinging them Chiarot AND Allen and asking for their 1st rounder, Philip Broberg, and Dylan Holloway. They have huge holes at LHD and goalie and if they think they're a Cup aspirant, they need to get better support for McDavid and company. Another team to target might be Vegas. They clearly want to go all in and they've been used to having a better platoon in net. Maybe they want to upgrade Lehner-Brossoit. Only problem here is that they've depleted their picks and prospect pool with all their other trades, so it might be difficult to find a good return. The Bruins are another team with big aspirations but bad goaltending. Do they really want to go into the post-season with Linus Ullmark as the guy responsible for helping them win in what could be Bergeron's last year? As I've posted before, their 2023 1st rounder could be a good starting point as an ask, given that might end up being a lottery pick.

Just a few thoughts on a move no one's really been talking about but that could be a great option to get a useful return.

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