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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

I think there is a good chance Chiarot and Lehks get moved for 1sts +. I don't think we can move Allen or Price anymore, not this year anyway, but do you think we can move one of our long-term wingers like Gallagher or Toffoli? I hate saying that becasue they are both valuable players that I like and COULD be useful in a rebuild (if they want to do that). But those are the players where you look at them from one angle and you think just too many years remaining, overpaid (more in Gallagher's case) but then you squint a little and you're like that's a guy on a championship team, that someone could be interested in, same with Petry. I say all this because to me that signals rebuild. Even Bergevin would have trade Chiarot (I'm not sure about Lehks to be honest), but the rebuild move is moving one or two of Petry/Toffoli/Gallagher

I'm for moving both Gallagher & Petry. If we were a competitive team they would be useful but now? Get what we can, even if the value is in the contracts removed.

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IMO, the problem is that many of these players that we "would like" to move, are damaged goods. Look at Gally, JD, Byron, Weber, Price, and some others. You're not going to get what you would like to receive in return. 

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Just now, kinot-2 said:

IMO, the problem is that many of these players that we "would like" to move, are damaged goods. Look at Gally, JD, Byron, Weber, Price, and some others. You're not going to get what you would like to receive in return. 

Drouin we can easily move in the off-season or at the trade deadline if we want to, but the french angle makes me think we may want to keep them. Weber is basically retired and doesn't count against the cap, actually in a year or two we may be able to trade the contract for a pick for teams trying to reach the floor. Price, you're right, he's not going anywhere until he plays and even then we will have to retain salary. But Gally and Byron when healthy still have value and in the case of Byron the contract is short enough, like Drouin, that you can retain salary with no problems. 

I really believe there's a team out there for Gally and Petry if we want to move them, and I think we should

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1 hour ago, kinot-2 said:

IMO, the problem is that many of these players that we "would like" to move, are damaged goods. Look at Gally, JD, Byron, Weber, Price, and some others. You're not going to get what you would like to receive in return. 

I'm happy just getting them off the books. I don't pay to get rid of them though.

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2 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

IMO, the problem is that many of these players that we "would like" to move, are damaged goods. Look at Gally, JD, Byron, Weber, Price, and some others. You're not going to get what you would like to receive in return. 

Much like we think the prospects / young players have this untapped ceiling of vast potential and we should keep them or they are better than they really are we sometimes think we can trade any player get a 1 st round draft pick or a young stud from another team . 
 

petry’s having a bad year . Byron hasn’t played a game this year and still he’s what a 3 rd or 4 th liner . 
 

we’ll see what mngt can do but even getting a 1 st round pick doesn’t mean much if that pick doesn’t develop into

an NHL player 

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7 hours ago, Regis22 said:

We’ll see what mngt can do but even getting a 1 st round pick doesn’t mean much if that pick doesn’t develop into an NHL player 

Well.......we are hoping that the development program will be a huge improvement.  That goes from drafting to introducing them to the NHL.  ie. No more putting a sniper on the 4rth line, or a mucker centering the 1st line. Proper player deployment.  This team has been pathetic at player development.  And, draft the BPA!

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11 hours ago, kinot-2 said:

IMO, the problem is that many of these players that we "would like" to move, are damaged goods. Look at Gally, JD, Byron, Weber, Price, and some others. You're not going to get what you would like to receive in return. 

Here's my assessment of the difficulty of trading some of these contracts with 10 being difficult

10's ("damaged" goods, long term of contract, expensive cap hit, Player has NMC / NTC, Needs Salary retention and even a 3rd team for cap allocation split)

Gorton / Hughes would be absolute miracle workers if they could move Price who controls his destiny with NTC, Gally - lot of wear and tear, 5 more seasons at $6.5M, Many of the 32 teams are cap strapped so you likely would need an Arizona, Detroit, Seattle, Ottawa with a lot of cap room to assist. Very very doubtful we could dump 1 for any value

7-8 (similar to above but the cap hit and term is still big. The player is not performing to expectations - could be some salary retention)

I would push Petry in here - $6.25M for 3 more years. He's had a horrible year by his standards, no defence partner like Edmundson or a supporting cast. Probably plays more like a $4m player at present. Teams could still value his leadership, experience, and puck moving ability. 

Weber - putting him here despite likely to retire in summer of 2022 - he's unlikely to come back and play for a rebuilding team for $3M in salary (he had a complicated front loaded contract)- Recapture retirement hit to Nashville of $6.1M for 4 years and a penalty to the habs for $214K per year.  Nashville has a ton to lose if Weber chooses to retire. Habs have a major issue if Weber believes he can come back at that cap hit of $7.857M. There may be some creativity here between Nashville and Montreal - Nashville would be better off to trade and put Weber on their LTIR to avoid the future cap hits. Could Gorton/Hughes extract a Winger prospect like L'Heureux or Evangelista from the Preds?

Armia - Isn't playing anywhere close to his $3.4M contract and 3 more seasons at $3.4M - some team will have to really think he can return to power forward form and benefit from a change in scenery

Hoffman - has 2 more years at $4.5M, weak defensively, power play specialist- Most of the league is strapped by the cap, to trading a player that will be 33 next year, I feel will be difficult without some retained salary

4-6 Players have some value to their cap value or term

Savard - I know many of you would dump Savard at all costs and he's been terrible. The problem is at our RHD we have virtually no one to replace him in the 3/4 pairing unless Guhle jumps up and moves to the right side, or Brook suddenly becomes healthy. $3.5M for three more years after this but his play has to pick up. He's borderline for me in this category and I could move him to 7-8 category for miracle work by Gorton/Hughes

Byron - small forward soon to be 33 for $3.4M - depends on comeback whether he can be traded in the off-season. Overpaid at that cap hit so difficult to move for any value

Josh Anderson - $5.5M for 5 more years of a power forward that has had a propensity for injuries. When Josh is good he earns full value. This contract may scare a few teams. BTW I am not saying Josh should be traded as I think he has value to the team. Objectively it may be hard to find value for his contract and it's risk

Kulak - this spare part may not be as easy to trade - there's a lot of D-men being floated as trade deadline offerings. May not get much for him and probably lose him for nothing vs. maybe a late 2nd or 3rd rounder. 

Dvorak - Just turned 25. Hasn't played to expectations but $4.45M for 3 more years. Given our weakness at centre, don't know why we would want to trade him

Drouin - Bergevin's overpaid designated leader hasn't played anywhere close to expectations. $5.5M for 1 more year. Satisfies some francophone base. Don't see any team wanting him without salary retained. Still young and loves the game of hockey.

Edmundson - $3.5 M for 2 more seasons after this injury riddled season. Difficulty in trading him before the 2022 deadline as not playing. May have some offseason interest as the cap hit is reasonable, but there would be no veteran LHD once Chiarot is gone. Would have to have strong belief that Romanov, Guhle, Clague perhaps signing Jordan Harris can keep the left side deep enough. I don't foresee Edmundson being offered up.

Jake Allen - At $2.875M is good value. Strong dependency on Price decision and assessment as to whether Primeau is ready. 

Toffoli - At $4.25M for the next 2 years, this soon to be 30 year old seems to like it in Montreal. Coming off a prior strong season. My opinion has more value to us than what we may obtain in a trade

1-3 - Trade them for value

Chiarot - easy only this season left here before UFA, Lehkonen - as discussed previously

Paquette, Perrault - not much value in either of these

Yours to agree, disagree or comment

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

Here's my assessment of the difficulty of trading some of these contracts with 10 being difficult

10's ("damaged" goods, long term of contract, expensive cap hit, Player has NMC / NTC, Needs Salary retention and even a 3rd team for cap allocation split)

Gorton / Hughes would be absolute miracle workers if they could move Price who controls his destiny with NTC, Gally - lot of wear and tear, 5 more seasons at $6.5M, Many of the 32 teams are cap strapped so you likely would need an Arizona, Detroit, Seattle, Ottawa with a lot of cap room to assist. Very very doubtful we could dump 1 for any value

7-8 (similar to above but the cap hit and term is still big. The player is not performing to expectations - could be some salary retention)

I would push Petry in here - $6.25M for 3 more years. He's had a horrible year by his standards, no defence partner like Edmundson or a supporting cast. Probably plays more like a $4m player at present. Teams could still value his leadership, experience, and puck moving ability. 

Weber - putting him here despite likely to retire in summer of 2022 - he's unlikely to come back and play for a rebuilding team for $3M in salary (he had a complicated front loaded contract)- Recapture retirement hit to Nashville of $6.1M for 4 years and a penalty to the habs for $214K per year.  Nashville has a ton to lose if Weber chooses to retire. Habs have a major issue if Weber believes he can come back at that cap hit of $7.857M. There may be some creativity here between Nashville and Montreal - Nashville would be better off to trade and put Weber on their LTIR to avoid the future cap hits. Could Gorton/Hughes extract a Winger prospect like L'Heureux or Evangelista from the Preds?

Armia - Isn't playing anywhere close to his $3.4M contract and 3 more seasons at $3.4M - some team will have to really think he can return to power forward form and benefit from a change in scenery

Hoffman - has 2 more years at $4.5M, weak defensively, power play specialist- Most of the league is strapped by the cap, to trading a player that will be 33 next year, I feel will be difficult without some retained salary

4-6 Players have some value to their cap value or term

Savard - I know many of you would dump Savard at all costs and he's been terrible. The problem is at our RHD we have virtually no one to replace him in the 3/4 pairing unless Guhle jumps up and moves to the right side, or Brook suddenly becomes healthy. $3.5M for three more years after this but his play has to pick up. He's borderline for me in this category and I could move him to 7-8 category for miracle work by Gorton/Hughes

Byron - small forward soon to be 33 for $3.4M - depends on comeback whether he can be traded in the off-season. Overpaid at that cap hit so difficult to move for any value

Josh Anderson - $5.5M for 5 more years of a power forward that has had a propensity for injuries. When Josh is good he earns full value. This contract may scare a few teams. BTW I am not saying Josh should be traded as I think he has value to the team. Objectively it may be hard to find value for his contract and it's risk

Kulak - this spare part may not be as easy to trade - there's a lot of D-men being floated as trade deadline offerings. May not get much for him and probably lose him for nothing vs. maybe a late 2nd or 3rd rounder. 

Dvorak - Just turned 25. Hasn't played to expectations but $4.45M for 3 more years. Given our weakness at centre, don't know why we would want to trade him

Drouin - Bergevin's overpaid designated leader hasn't played anywhere close to expectations. $5.5M for 1 more year. Satisfies some francophone base. Don't see any team wanting him without salary retained. Still young and loves the game of hockey.

Edmundson - $3.5 M for 2 more seasons after this injury riddled season. Difficulty in trading him before the 2022 deadline as not playing. May have some offseason interest as the cap hit is reasonable, but there would be no veteran LHD once Chiarot is gone. Would have to have strong belief that Romanov, Guhle, Clague perhaps signing Jordan Harris can keep the left side deep enough. I don't foresee Edmundson being offered up.

Jake Allen - At $2.875M is good value. Strong dependency on Price decision and assessment as to whether Primeau is ready. 

Toffoli - At $4.25M for the next 2 years, this soon to be 30 year old seems to like it in Montreal. Coming off a prior strong season. My opinion has more value to us than what we may obtain in a trade

1-3 - Trade them for value

Chiarot - easy only this season left here before UFA, Lehkonen - as discussed previously

Paquette, Perrault - not much value in either of these

Yours to agree, disagree or comment

I agree with most of this, the one thing I would like to see is Dvorak and Hoffman moved up to the trade them for value category. Hoffman to Pittsburgh for Zucker and maybe a 3rd or 4th could be a good deal for both sides and we could potentially buyout Zucker at the end of this season. In Dvorak's case I think some playoff teams would be interested in him and his cap hit is not all that high, since we are looking to retool\rebuild anyway why not move him for assets (whatever we can get) even if we have to take back a shorter contract. Pitlick has not been bad and has the potential to be a 2 or 3C and Poehling's game is improving so we can finish this season with Suzuki-Pitlick-Poehling-Evans down the middle and draft one of Wright, Savoie or Cooley to improve our center depth going into next year as well.

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When making a trade, I always ask myself whether we're trading a player who's value is high or low and whether we expect it to go back up or go down in the time period that is of importance to us. Here are a few examples:

- Chiarot: received a lot of love in the post-season last year, when I thought he was alright. IMO, he's actually been better this year than last year and I think in the post-season he and Weber got bailed out by goaltending more than anything. This year, he's been better, especially when he was paired with Petry. But perception of him is good, he's on an expiring contract, and there's no purpose in offering him a new one, so you trade now while value is up.

- Lehkonen: as I've detailed, his value his highest now. He's leading the team in many advanced stat categories, he's one of the few guys who has played well this year, and his value will go down if he signs a longer-term deal. An impending RFA is a great contract for a playoff-bound team to acquire. You trade now.

- Byron: hasn't played in a while, has minimal value. He'll be most valuable if he can re-establish himself and as he gets to the last year of his contract. He can be a veteran in the room for the youngsters. Sure, we'd benefit having his contract off the books, but there's no trade value now and there might be down the line. You hold onto him.

- Petry: has had a bad year compared to what we're used to. Value is at an all-time low since he got here, but his advanced stats aren't that bad. It tells me some of his "decline" is bad luck and being surrounded by incompetence. Get him a better coach, get him better teammates, and I think his value goes up next year. Hold onto him.

- Gallagher: similar to Petry in a way in overall value, but I think more GMs across the league will be happy to add a Gallagher and less likely to feel like he's aged enough that he's fallen off a cliff (which is more of a risk with the 34 year-old Petry). I do think Gallagher's value could be better, but I also think it could drop too. If there's a deal to be made, I still see him as having value to other clubs now and I'd be okay moving him now or in the off-season or a in a year.

- Dvorak: bad start to the year. Seemed to be doing better of late. Don't see him improving remarkably at this stage in his career. I'd hold onto him through this season but be interested in trading him in the off-season or next year if he can bring his value back up to baseline.

- Toffoli: hasn't been terrible this season all things considered. Take out the injuries and the bad team around him and he can probably still score you 25 goals next year, in addition to being Suzuki's best linemate. I'd keep him around and we have time to trade him down the line.

- Drouin: has reasonable stats despite the team's slump. Don't think he gets any better than this down the line, don't think his value goes up much, and he's on a contract with 1.5 years to go, so that's a reasonable time to get max value back. I'd trade him now.

- Price: value is low. He needs to prove he can come back. Assuming he does, I think teams will always believe he can give you a run at a Cup as he did last year. So would hold for now and only trade if/when he is able to re-establish himself.

- Armia: low value right now. Have to hold onto him and hope he rebounds down the line. Wonder if the COVID has done a number on him.

- Hoffman: average value right now, don't see it going up much. I'd trade him whenever there's an offer of any decency. Wouldn't eat cap or give up other assets to move him, but don't see much value in keeping him.

- Anderson: value is reasonable right now, but also don't see it dropping off much in the next 2 years, so I'd hold onto him.

 

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According to Dave Pagnotta of the 4th period, teams have been calling the Habs with interest in Jonathan Drouin. So seems like we could be looking at dealing him if we want. Not sure of what return would be. Looking at the list, I think the guys we'd want to part with in the next few weeks would include Chiarot, Lehkonen, Drouin, Kulak, Perreault, Paquette, Wideman, and Hoffman.

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1 minute ago, BigTed3 said:

According to Dave Pagnotta of the 4th period, teams have been calling the Habs with interest in Jonathan Drouin. So seems like we could be looking at dealing him if we want. Not sure of what return would be. Looking at the list, I think the guys we'd want to part with in the next few weeks would include Chiarot, Lehkonen, Drouin, Kulak, Perreault, Paquette, Wideman, and Hoffman.

I gotta think Drouin has value, especially since he only has one more year so we could easily retain salary. But we also can easily wait until next year so I'd ask for a nice package

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21 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

According to Dave Pagnotta of the 4th period, teams have been calling the Habs with interest in Jonathan Drouin. So seems like we could be looking at dealing him if we want. Not sure of what return would be. Looking at the list, I think the guys we'd want to part with in the next few weeks would include Chiarot, Lehkonen, Drouin, Kulak, Perreault, Paquette, Wideman, and Hoffman.

I'd for sure add Petry & Gallagher,  although a lot harder to move.

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1 hour ago, electron58 said:

I'd for sure add Petry & Gallagher,  although a lot harder to move.

Both guys we would be willing to move, I just don't think we're getting the deals we want at the deadline. These could be more useful as off-season moves, and we may also want to retain them to see if they can re-establish value first. I don't see either moving at the deadline.

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Elliotte Friedman was also reporting that the Flyers are considering moving pending UFA Claude Giroux but he has a cap hit over 8M, making it tough. The Avs are apparently interested, according to Friedman, but they would need a 3rd team to eat salary to make it work. So here's an opportunity for Hughes and Gorton to get in on the action without spending cap dollars past this year. Here's a potential three-way trade that could help all teams:

- Philadelphia retains 4.1M of Giroux's salary and deals him to Montreal in exchange for Ben Chiarot (1.75M retained by Montreal on Chiarot as well).

- Montreal retains 2.05M of the remaining Giroux salary and trades him to Colorado in exchange for Samuel Girard

- Colorado trades their 2023 1st rounder, Tyson Jost, and Oskar Olausson to Philadelphia for Chiarot, with Philly retaining 875k on Chiarot

 

The net for each team is as follows:

- Mtl loses Chiarot and gets Girard in exchange for giving up 3.8M of cap space this year

- Phi loses Giroux and retains 5M total in salary cap and acquires Col's 2023 1st, Jost, and Olausson (one of the Avs' better prospects)

- Col gives up their 2023 1st, Girard, Jost, and Olausson in exchange for 8.5M+ cap relief to add Giroux and Chiarot, with Chiarot replacing Girard on the left side of their D. They would be paying less than 3M to the two veterans in addition to dumping 7M in salary that's being paid out to Jost and Girard at present, allowing them to add an extra 4M in cap space as well, which would in turn permit them to go after another player too.

Who says no?

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39 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Elliotte Friedman was also reporting that the Flyers are considering moving pending UFA Claude Giroux but he has a cap hit over 8M, making it tough. The Avs are apparently interested, according to Friedman, but they would need a 3rd team to eat salary to make it work. So here's an opportunity for Hughes and Gorton to get in on the action without spending cap dollars past this year. Here's a potential three-way trade that could help all teams:

- Philadelphia retains 4.1M of Giroux's salary and deals him to Montreal in exchange for Ben Chiarot (1.75M retained by Montreal on Chiarot as well).

- Montreal retains 2.05M of the remaining Giroux salary and trades him to Colorado in exchange for Samuel Girard

- Colorado trades their 2023 1st rounder, Tyson Jost, and Oskar Olausson to Philadelphia for Chiarot, with Philly retaining 875k on Chiarot

The net for each team is as follows:

- Mtl loses Chiarot and gets Girard in exchange for giving up 3.8M of cap space this year

- Phi loses Giroux and retains 5M total in salary cap and acquires Col's 2023 1st, Jost, and Olausson (one of the Avs' better prospects)

- Col gives up their 2023 1st, Girard, Jost, and Olausson in exchange for 8.5M+ cap relief to add Giroux and Chiarot, with Chiarot replacing Girard on the left side of their D. They would be paying less than 3M to the two veterans in addition to dumping 7M in salary that's being paid out to Jost and Girard at present, allowing them to add an extra 4M in cap space as well, which would in turn permit them to go after another player too.

Who says no?

No but I will give you points for creativity.

Sure, Girard is young at soon to be 24 puck mover with 5 more years at a reasonable $5m lockup at his natural LHD but sort of depends on Jordan Harris. I realize prospects are just that with Girard being proven, but we have a plethora of emerging LHD with Romanov, Guhle, Norlinder, Clague, possible Harris and Struble - that’s a potentially crowded left side.
Bergevin did the same by trading for Drouin, locking him up and immediately appointing/expecting him to be part of the core. They’d be doing the exact same thing with Girard by appointing him with 5 years as part of the core. I’d rather see our core evolve a little from within before repeating this historical mistake. 
Girard plays with some very talented offensive players on the Avs including Makar. I think we are not ready yet for a player of his ilk, and his numbers would have a large drop off in the first 2 rebuild seasons, setting both parties up for disappointment at the outset of wanting to be a fast offensive puck possession team. 
Lastly we need to weaponize and build our cap space freedoms (term and amount), not encumber it with another long term 5 yr $5m contract. We are already crowded there with Price, Gally, Petry, Anderson, Suzuki (the latter is good)

From a value perspective on the other teams, that’s an all in by Sakic really mortgaging the future by giving up a lot of youth for two aging players who will be UFA after the season. They already traded away their 2022 first and now giving up their 2023 first. I don’t see Colorado doing it. 
Philadelphia gets a helluva deal and IMO would be the large winner. 

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Friedman reporting Flames, Florida, Toronto, and St. Louis having interest in Ben Chiarot 

I hope the Blues are the front runners as they are loaded up at centre and may be willing to part with Zachary Bolduc of the Remparts (17th overall) who can score, has size and plays a 200ft game. 

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4 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Elliotte Friedman was also reporting that the Flyers are considering moving pending UFA Claude Giroux but he has a cap hit over 8M, making it tough. The Avs are apparently interested, according to Friedman, but they would need a 3rd team to eat salary to make it work. So here's an opportunity for Hughes and Gorton to get in on the action without spending cap dollars past this year. Here's a potential three-way trade that could help all teams:

- Philadelphia retains 4.1M of Giroux's salary and deals him to Montreal in exchange for Ben Chiarot (1.75M retained by Montreal on Chiarot as well).

- Montreal retains 2.05M of the remaining Giroux salary and trades him to Colorado in exchange for Samuel Girard

- Colorado trades their 2023 1st rounder, Tyson Jost, and Oskar Olausson to Philadelphia for Chiarot, with Philly retaining 875k on Chiarot

 

The net for each team is as follows:

- Mtl loses Chiarot and gets Girard in exchange for giving up 3.8M of cap space this year

- Phi loses Giroux and retains 5M total in salary cap and acquires Col's 2023 1st, Jost, and Olausson (one of the Avs' better prospects)

- Col gives up their 2023 1st, Girard, Jost, and Olausson in exchange for 8.5M+ cap relief to add Giroux and Chiarot, with Chiarot replacing Girard on the left side of their D. They would be paying less than 3M to the two veterans in addition to dumping 7M in salary that's being paid out to Jost and Girard at present, allowing them to add an extra 4M in cap space as well, which would in turn permit them to go after another player too.

Who says no?

I say no. Chiarot is worth a good prospect by himself. The salary retained is at least a second.  Philadelphia makes out like bandits. Give us the first to Flyers, or Olausson. Then I consider it. Actually,  I'm surprised with you

 

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3 hours ago, claremont said:

No but I will give you points for creativity.

Sure, Girard is young at soon to be 24 puck mover with 5 more years at a reasonable $5m lockup at his natural LHD but sort of depends on Jordan Harris. I realize prospects are just that with Girard being proven, but we have a plethora of emerging LHD with Romanov, Guhle, Norlinder, Clague, possible Harris and Struble - that’s a potentially crowded left side.

How many of those six D men are going to make it to the NHL 

Each year we list a bunch of prospects and say how the future looks bright , then years down the line , wash, rinse , repeat .

If they can get a proven D man , and Im not saying Girad is the guy , Id say go for it . 

 

 

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3 hours ago, claremont said:

No but I will give you points for creativity.

Sure, Girard is young at soon to be 24 puck mover with 5 more years at a reasonable $5m lockup at his natural LHD but sort of depends on Jordan Harris. I realize prospects are just that with Girard being proven, but we have a plethora of emerging LHD with Romanov, Guhle, Norlinder, Clague, possible Harris and Struble - that’s a potentially crowded left side.
Bergevin did the same by trading for Drouin, locking him up and immediately appointing/expecting him to be part of the core. They’d be doing the exact same thing with Girard by appointing him with 5 years as part of the core. I’d rather see our core evolve a little from within before repeating this historical mistake. 
Girard plays with some very talented offensive players on the Avs including Makar. I think we are not ready yet for a player of his ilk, and his numbers would have a large drop off in the first 2 rebuild seasons, setting both parties up for disappointment at the outset of wanting to be a fast offensive puck possession team. 
Lastly we need to weaponize and build our cap space freedoms (term and amount), not encumber it with another long term 5 yr $5m contract. We are already crowded there with Price, Gally, Petry, Anderson, Suzuki (the latter is good)

From a value perspective on the other teams, that’s an all in by Sakic really mortgaging the future by giving up a lot of youth for two aging players who will be UFA after the season. They already traded away their 2022 first and now giving up their 2023 first. I don’t see Colorado doing it. 
Philadelphia gets a helluva deal and IMO would be the large winner. 

I agree with you that Chiarot should be worth a 1st and the cap space worth a 2nd. I also think Colorado would have no problem fetching a 1st and a 2nd for Girard if they wanted to, so to me that's a fair trade-off. Colorado would definitely be mortgaging their future to get two vets, but they've got to be all-in this year, particularly with the West having so few legit challengers for the Cup. Not only would they be getting two key guys for their run, they'd also be paying to do it on the cheap. Not for me to decide whether it's worth it to them, but have seen contenders give up more for less, so I don't think it's implausible.

As for the other question you raise of whether the Girard contract would be a mistake... well it is a long-term deal, but I'd argue that we'd be getting a younger player who will be on the right side of 30 for the entire deal, so we're not looking at a 7-year deal to a 28 year-old where we expect significant risk of drop-off in play over the term of the contract. In essence, we'd be getting Girard through his prime years. You mentioned Drouin and frankly I don't have big problems with the contract MB gave him. We also had him locked up through his prime, and he's essentially played like a 2nd-line winger for the duration of his contract, and while he never exploded into a star, I don't feel like we got significantly short-changed by what we paid him. The problem with the Drouin trade was never taking a gamble on a young established potential star nor taking a gamble on the contract, it was the fact that MB made a position that was already weak in our organization even weaker and didn't make another trade to compensate for the loss of Sergachev. Here, we're not giving up futures, we'd just be adding Girard to the mix, so the question is really whether one thinks 5M for 5 years is overpayment.

I'd argue that while Girard is lacking in size, he's already shown he can be a strong NHL player, so the risk is minimal. And yes, Girard has played with the excellent Cale Makar, who himself is not big, but if you delve deeper, you'll see Girard hasn't been any worse without Makar. Over the past 3 years, he and Makar together have a Corsi of 54.8%. Girard paired with anyone else not named Makar is running a Corsi of 54.1%, so pretty much the same. He's been a strong player with and without Makar. Girard also has a positive relative Corsi both with and without Makar, meaning the team is better off with him on the ice than on the bench, whether he's on with Makar or not, so it's not just the case that he's benefiting from a good system, he's actually a strong possession player in that system relative to his teammates.

Your other question about the cupboard being stocked on the left side of the D already is valid. It's a position that should become a strength for us in the next few years. However, it's no guarantee Harris signs here. There's also no guarantee any of the other prospects make it either, and the only established LHD we have signed for next year is Edmundson, albeit with the expectation Romanov will be back too. But look at today's modern game. You need puck-moving D men with speed and skill, which is what Gorton has said the team will be looking to go after. Edmundson isn't that. Romanov, while still a strong player in many ways, isn't a guy who's going to skate the puck out or run a PP or make great breakout passes. So Girard adds elements we're not getting elsewhere. If Harris develops and signs here or Norlinder or Guhle become great, then so be it, you have trade chips to improve the rest of your organization. It'd be a happy problem to have.

Bottom line for me is that Girard is an established NHLer who has proven he can play today's game at a high level. It's low risk that he'll decline between the ages of 24-29 and it's low risk he won't be worth his salary. He adds dimensions we don't currently have, which in turn could help our forward group and our PP. And we'd be acquiring him giving up only Chiarot (so not creating another hole in our lineup) or if you want, giving up a late 1st round choice. The odds of that 1st rounder becoming as good as Girard would probably be 20%. To me, it's the type of trade that could be a win and put in place a key cog who can be with you if you're looking at a Cup window in the range of 3-5 years from now.

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Yeah if we can manage to get Girard for Chiarot & Cap Space all down for it.    I know that Chiarot can likely bring a (late) 1st and a middle tier prospect but the chance of either of those players turning into Sam Girard is pretty darned slim, not to mention that SG is NHL ready now... i dont want all of our trades to bring in guys that will be ready in 3-4 years.   

BigTed outlines my concerns above but id still go for it. 

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I would trade for Girard. Lots of left-handed shooters can play on the right-side, we've had the luxury of having RHD in Subban/Weber and Petry for years but most teams have at least one lefty playing on the right side. It's not the end of the world if you're talking about a good top-4 d man that can move the puck. 

The only think I would question is why they'd give up Girard for Chiarot, I don't see that happening. I get that part of the value they are giving up is going to get Giroux but I just don't think he's worth that much. 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

I agree with you that Chiarot should be worth a 1st and the cap space worth a 2nd. I also think Colorado would have no problem fetching a 1st and a 2nd for Girard if they wanted to, so to me that's a fair trade-off. Colorado would definitely be mortgaging their future to get two vets, but they've got to be all-in this year, particularly with the West having so few legit challengers for the Cup. Not only would they be getting two key guys for their run, they'd also be paying to do it on the cheap. Not for me to decide whether it's worth it to them, but have seen contenders give up more for less, so I don't think it's implausible.

As for the other question you raise of whether the Girard contract would be a mistake... well it is a long-term deal, but I'd argue that we'd be getting a younger player who will be on the right side of 30 for the entire deal, so we're not looking at a 7-year deal to a 28 year-old where we expect significant risk of drop-off in play over the term of the contract. In essence, we'd be getting Girard through his prime years. You mentioned Drouin and frankly I don't have big problems with the contract MB gave him. We also had him locked up through his prime, and he's essentially played like a 2nd-line winger for the duration of his contract, and while he never exploded into a star, I don't feel like we got significantly short-changed by what we paid him. The problem with the Drouin trade was never taking a gamble on a young established potential star nor taking a gamble on the contract, it was the fact that MB made a position that was already weak in our organization even weaker and didn't make another trade to compensate for the loss of Sergachev. Here, we're not giving up futures, we'd just be adding Girard to the mix, so the question is really whether one thinks 5M for 5 years is overpayment.

I'd argue that while Girard is lacking in size, he's already shown he can be a strong NHL player, so the risk is minimal. And yes, Girard has played with the excellent Cale Makar, who himself is not big, but if you delve deeper, you'll see Girard hasn't been any worse without Makar. Over the past 3 years, he and Makar together have a Corsi of 54.8%. Girard paired with anyone else not named Makar is running a Corsi of 54.1%, so pretty much the same. He's been a strong player with and without Makar. Girard also has a positive relative Corsi both with and without Makar, meaning the team is better off with him on the ice than on the bench, whether he's on with Makar or not, so it's not just the case that he's benefiting from a good system, he's actually a strong possession player in that system relative to his teammates.

Your other question about the cupboard being stocked on the left side of the D already is valid. It's a position that should become a strength for us in the next few years. However, it's no guarantee Harris signs here. There's also no guarantee any of the other prospects make it either, and the only established LHD we have signed for next year is Edmundson, albeit with the expectation Romanov will be back too. But look at today's modern game. You need puck-moving D men with speed and skill, which is what Gorton has said the team will be looking to go after. Edmundson isn't that. Romanov, while still a strong player in many ways, isn't a guy who's going to skate the puck out or run a PP or make great breakout passes. So Girard adds elements we're not getting elsewhere. If Harris develops and signs here or Norlinder or Guhle become great, then so be it, you have trade chips to improve the rest of your organization. It'd be a happy problem to have.

Bottom line for me is that Girard is an established NHLer who has proven he can play today's game at a high level. It's low risk that he'll decline between the ages of 24-29 and it's low risk he won't be worth his salary. He adds dimensions we don't currently have, which in turn could help our forward group and our PP. And we'd be acquiring him giving up only Chiarot (so not creating another hole in our lineup) or if you want, giving up a late 1st round choice. The odds of that 1st rounder becoming as good as Girard would probably be 20%. To me, it's the type of trade that could be a win and put in place a key cog who can be with you if you're looking at a Cup window in the range of 3-5 years from now.

Love this discussion forum for point , counterpoint

1) I don't deny Girard's skills for our LHD puck mover need, and concur that $5M is not overpayment. Neither of those are standalone mistakes.  IMO it's a mistake TO APPOINT a player from an outside team as an immediate piece of your core, which is what MB tired to do with Drouin to fix our need for goal scoring with a 6 year deal. MB gave up on Sergachev before he even had a chance. By appointing Girard, you're giving up on Norlinder's evolution. Matthias is really our only chance at an LHD puck mover as IMO Romanov, Guhle (who by all reports is a can't miss prospect), Harris (BIG IF he signs), are 3/4 5/6 complimentary pieces (possible flips to RHD), Struble is an unknown, and Edmundson is not part of the core. For me, the mistake is about timing - you make this type of Girard deal when you have more clarity on your core. The LAFFS appointed Phaneuf in that 2010 trade as part of their core as a parallel mistake, and his stats nose dived.

2) Entirely agree that Girard has talent as an established NHLer, but it's not just Cale Makar that moves him into elite status. Girard has the advantage of Rantinen, Landeskog, MacKinnon, Burakovsky even Kadri, plus Makar. Put Girard on our immediate rebuild at present and Suzuki, Caufield, Anderson, Drouin and whoever our RHD #1 is, pale in comparison, and I am not convinced that Girard props them up that significantly or vice-versa in the short term 2 years.  Depending on Price, we may have weakness in the goaltending. That's a lot of pressure on Girard. I would love this type of deal perhaps a year out when you see a little more of your rebuilding core and it's trajectory. 

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3 hours ago, Regis22 said:

How many of those six D men are going to make it to the NHL 

Each year we list a bunch of prospects and say how the future looks bright , then years down the line , wash, rinse , repeat .

If they can get a proven D man , and Im not saying Girad is the guy , Id say go for it . 

Unfortunately we don't have many values beyond our prospect pool and I would have to dig really deep to find a competitive team that continually patches it's team with free agents or trades for other team's proven players, with little reliance on the draft. We also don't have a ton of cap room, to trade that for top line players. I get your frustration with the prospect hype - it has been ages since we have had 1 player break out from the prospect pool and even then we traded for him (Suzuki via Patches), and we are still waiting on Caufield who is snake bit on his rookie season. Neither of those are close to elite but have a reasonable trajectory.

We don't see many trades where a team gives up a combination of 2 B or C level roster players, cap room, for a top A level or elite player. The probabilities of that happening are low. This makes the development of our prospect pool and drafting correctly as an essential component of our rebuild. Doesn't help that we have continually been drafting at the #16-32 position where chances of finding an elite player drop off. Hopefully Gorton/Hughes can acquire more picks.  It will be very interesting to compare how Arizona is doing it - basically selling off every single asset they seem to have (maybe even Chycrun, Kessel etc.), for draft picks (they have 3 first rounds, 5 second rounds in 2022 so far, and compare that "odds" approach to our rebuild solutions. 

To answer your question on the 6 d-men, Romanov is one already and I would argue that he should be part of the core even though he looks like a #3/#4 pairing guy, you need some bangers with grit and he fits that need. Guhle by reports I have seen is a can't miss prospect barring injury and has leadership written all over him, but neither are projected as high ceiling elite. We will be fortunate if one of Norlinder, Harris if he signs vs. college free agency choice, and Struble or the reclaimed Clague can make the jump.  Those elite d-men like centres are very hard to find. I suspect we may need to trade for that elite puck moving proven D-man at some point in our rebuilding efforts - To me it makes no sense to acquire that now when you know your team is likely a bottom feeder for at least next year and the year beyond. IMO you would be wasting his talents. 

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4 hours ago, habsisme said:

I would trade for Girard. Lots of left-handed shooters can play on the right-side, we've had the luxury of having RHD in Subban/Weber and Petry for years but most teams have at least one lefty playing on the right side. It's not the end of the world if you're talking about a good top-4 d man that can move the puck. 

The only think I would question is why they'd give up Girard for Chiarot, I don't see that happening. I get that part of the value they are giving up is going to get Giroux but I just don't think he's worth that much. 

From Colorado's perspective, Girard has been rumored to be a trade chip for them for a while, with Bowen Byram's emergence as a potential replacement. Now they've also been linked to Giroux, as per Elliotte Friedman. You can say you don't think Giroux is worth that much, but a lot of that is because of his salary of 8M. He's not worth paying that amount. But in my trade scenario, Colorado is getting Giroux for 2M and Chiarot for under 1M, so they're paying to get those guys on the cheap.

Giroux has 15 goals and 34 points in 40 games this year (on pace for over 30 goals and close to 70 points) and by all accounts from Philly media has been their best player. Last year, he was also their best player and had 43 points in 54 games. He was a more than PPG player just 4 and 5 years ago and he's still producing at a high clip since then. So you look at what other rentals have fetched at the deadline in past years, and for Colorado to get a top-end player on an expiring contract at a cap hit of 2M, yeah, they're going to have to pay for that. As I said, I won't jump in Colorado's head and figure out if they accept that price or not, but if they want Giroux and feel like that makes them favorites to come out of the West, and they're okay with giving up Girard and have a stand-in in Chiarot and a long-term plan for Byram, then it means they're giving up what they deem to be expendable parts in order to fill holes they have now to win in their window.

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