Montreal doesnt match Hurricanes Offer Sheet to KK

[maas_art]

5 minutes ago, seth505 said:

I don't see the correlation of this meaning Suzuki would sign an offer sheet.  Also, what about the flip side of that, if KK gets the 6mil, then the same agent will want insane amounts for the more valuable Suzuki and drive him somewhere else if he doesn't get it.

This.   Suzuki has established himself far more than JK too, so thats a huge difference. JK was in a weird situation because we value him as a prospect but, despite having like 200 games under his belt he's still very much a work in progress.   A show-me deal of $2-2.5m was not a low ball offer for him at this stage of his career.  I assume that MB would have been happy to give him $3-3.5m if he was willing to lock in more years.  $6.1m is just crazy no matter what.  Dont blame JK for signing it but its about 3x more than what he's worth right now.  One of the sportsnet guys asked like 6 gms and all of them said he was currently worth (and would have been offered by them) $2m or under. 

5 minutes ago, MALMACIAN_CRUNCH said:

I’m not sure if that actually doesn’t make the case not to match. Matching sends the message that using OS’s as a negotiating tactic works. Not matching says try it if you dare, but be prepared to play for that team if the offer is beyond reason. Personally I would prefer we send the second message.

Truth.  Thats probably one of the things that's making it difficult on MB... if we match... well that sets a precedent that this is a tactic for a guy wanting to stay but for more money. 

[ramcharger440]

2 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Easy there! you have no idea how Suzuki's contract is going to pan out. Suzuki is a much better player than KK is in my opinion and you are blowing KK'S value way out of proportion! the way you are going on it is like we are letting Gretzky go or something like that! KK is a young center who has not found his way yet but may become a good 2nd line center, Suzuki looks to be a first line center already so really no comparison.

Another thing I forgot to mention here, I would sign Suzuki to 6 mil a year right now for term too.

[habsisme]

1 minute ago, ramcharger440 said:

Another thing I forgot to mention here, I would sign Suzuki to 6 mil a year right now for term too.

the second contract I'm always for  a long term deal at a good cap hit. 6 million sounds about right for Suzuki... but for 8 years. That's why people complain about low ball offers but that's how its done. 

"Suzuki we love you and want you on this team for a long time, we're willing to give you an 8 year deal at 6 million" 

"but I want a 5 year deal so I can be a UFA as soon as possible" 

"that's out of the question you can have a 2 year deal at 3 million, which do you prefer? Long or short?" 

And then you either get great value for 2 years, or you get good value for the last 4 years of an 8 year deal. If you can't get good value from your own guys, good luck trying to win. 

[ramcharger440]

1 minute ago, habsisme said:

the second contract I'm always for  a long term deal at a good cap hit. 6 million sounds about right for Suzuki... but for 8 years. That's why people complain about low ball offers but that's how its done. 

"Suzuki we love you and want you on this team for a long time, we're willing to give you an 8 year deal at 6 million" 

"but I want a 5 year deal so I can be a UFA as soon as possible" 

"that's out of the question you can have a 2 year deal at 3 million, which do you prefer? Long or short?" 

And then you either get great value for 2 years, or you get good value for the last 4 years of an 8 year deal. If you can't get good value from your own guys, good luck trying to win. 

Yep Zuke is the real deal, no waiting around to see if he will get going he is getting better all the time I feel Caufield will be the same way after this season, lock him up long term! I feel like we can move on from KK pretty easy if we can make a fair trade for a good center the guy does not have to be a superstar because he is going to get good wingers for sure as we are flush there. I think we need to see what we can do on D to get set for the future and longer term goaltending is going to be a thing but for once we are stout up front if we can get a good solid center.

[habsisme]

1 minute ago, ramcharger440 said:

Yep Zuke is the real deal, no waiting around to see if he will get going he is getting better all the time I feel Caufield will be the same way after this season, lock him up long term! I feel like we can move on from KK pretty easy if we can make a fair trade for a good center the guy does not have to be a superstar because he is going to get good wingers for sure as we are flush there. I think we need to see what we can do on D to get set for the future and longer term goaltending is going to be a thing but for once we are stout up front if we can get a good solid center.

I think the best chance we have Dvorak. Was looking at capfriendly they currently have 2 firsts and 5 seconds! And its a deep draft! I'm sure they would love to add a third first... or even a 4th

[campabee82]

4 minutes ago, habsisme said:

Suzuki is a different story though, he's already good, its an easier contract to negotiate

we havent made the playoffs in 8 years!? I must have a bad memory. We made the final last year. The trades and signings were fantastic

Again, give me 3 names of available GMs that are available and French. I'll do you one better give 5 names of current GMs from the 32 teams that you think are better than MB. MB is one of the top GMs in the league

yeah Suzuki should be fine and if he play like he has, we will happily match any offer or get 4 1st round picks! lol

 

yes exactly, by not matching we make the point that we're not going to be pushed around into anything. You make a bad offer, you can keep the player and we'll take your picks, you made a reasonable offer, we'll match 

1. Is Suzuki better really though? Suzuki has been given more opportunities and more consistent linemates than KK ever has. Suzuki as only moved around the lineup for part of his rookie season then was given top 6 minutes. Sure he earned those minutes but he was also given more leeway than KK was. When KK made mistakes he was sent to the 4th line, benched or sent to Laval. When Suzuki made mistakes he was sent back out in the same position to learn from them. Suzuki had the edge as he was older and grew up in the NA style. In the playoffs KK had as many goals as Zuke did the last 2 years all while playing on the 3rd or 4th line and being scratched at times, whereas Suzuki never got removed from the top 6 even when he made mistakes. 

2. Reread the post, I said in 8 years with no playoffs!!! ONLY MADE them the last 2 years because of a global pandemic. The first 8 years of MB's tenure though we sucked, the last 2 have only been marginally better.

3a. We shouldn't have to look at just French GM's! b. Gallant, Brisbrois, Poile, Dubas (at least has a plan), Holland, Blake, McCrimmon, Sakic, Waddell, Lamoriello, Sweeney, Zito and Yzerman. How is that for a list?!

4. Yeah then we suck again for the next 10 years cause MB let Zuke go as well, great plan!

5. IF MB was willing to ACTUALLY negotiate instead of being hardheaded this would never have gotten this far.

[habsisme]

6 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

1. Is Suzuki better really though? Suzuki has been given more opportunities and more consistent linemates than KK ever has. Suzuki as only moved around the lineup for part of his rookie season then was given top 6 minutes. Sure he earned those minutes but he was also given more leeway than KK was. When KK made mistakes he was sent to the 4th line, benched or sent to Laval. When Suzuki made mistakes he was sent back out in the same position to learn from them. Suzuki had the edge as he was older and grew up in the NA style. In the playoffs KK had as many goals as Zuke did the last 2 years all while playing on the 3rd or 4th line and being scratched at times, whereas Suzuki never got removed from the top 6 even when he made mistakes. 

2. Reread the post, I said in 8 years with no playoffs!!! ONLY MADE them the last 2 years because of a global pandemic. The first 8 years of MB's tenure though we sucked, the last 2 have only been marginally better.

3a. We shouldn't have to look at just French GM's! b. Gallant, Brisbrois, Poile, Dubas (at least has a plan), Holland, Blake, McCrimmon, Sakic, Waddell, Lamoriello, Sweeney, Zito and Yzerman. How is that for a list?!

4. Yeah then we suck again for the next 10 years cause MB let Zuke go as well, great plan!

5. IF MB was willing to ACTUALLY negotiate instead of being hardheaded this would never have gotten this far.

we didn't miss the playoff the first 8 years of MBs tenure. We made the conference finals one year and the finals just recently. That's better than most teams. I don't know what you're talking about

Suzuki is CLEARLY better then KK and KK has consistently had good wingers and power play time

Well the real world dictates they do need to be French. I should be dating Megan Fox but its not gonna happen and it is what it is. 

Gallant is not a GM, Briserois maybe but much of his success could really be due to Yzerman. Yzerman is a great GM. Holland, Blake, McCrimmon????? WADDELL!!!!? after what he just did!? He's not even the real GM of the team, its the owner! I've always love Lamoriello but he values vets and low balls rookies. Dubas? The leafs would have won a cup had they kept Lamoriello! I think its a very poor list

[campabee82]

3 minutes ago, habsisme said:

we didn't miss the playoff the first 8 years of MBs tenure. We made the conference finals one year and the finals just recently. That's better than most teams. I don't know what you're talking about

Suzuki is CLEARLY better then KK and KK has consistently had good wingers and power play time

Well the real world dictates they do need to be French. I should be dating Megan Fox but its not gonna happen and it is what it is. 

Gallant is not a GM, Briserois maybe but much of his success could really be due to Yzerman. Yzerman is a great GM. Holland, Blake, McCrimmon????? WADDELL!!!!? after what he just did!? He's not even the real GM of the team, its the owner! I've always love Lamoriello but he values vets and low balls rookies. Dubas? The leafs would have won a cup had they kept Lamoriello! I think its a very poor list

I forgot about the one playoff run my bad but that team was not built by MB that was inherited like you noted of Briesbrois/Yzerman

KK and Zuke tied for the team lead in 19-20 in goals and this year KK finished tied for 2nd on the team with 5 while Zuke led with 7. Also KK finished 5th on the team in points while playing 3rd line center. The only guys that had more points were Suzuki (16), Toffoli (14) Caufield (12) and Perry (10) that is the entire top line and Perry. That means KK out performed Anderson, Danault and Gallagher who all were top 6 forwards and never scratched. Yeah that guy is clearly a bust! 

You asked for a list of GM's better than MB, I gave you one!

I included Gallant because he could be a GM in the league and is available and is French and is better than MB! Holland is a middle of the pack guy but still better than MB as he is able to at least draft! Blake has turned the future of the Kings around in such a short time and that team looks to be competitive in the next 2 years. McCrimmon has Vegas as solid contenders for the foreseeable future. Waddell, whether or not you like his methods has Carolina as contenders as well and only getting stronger. Dubas, I am not really sold on but like I said he at least has a plan and is building what he thinks will be a contender, whereas MB just flies by the seat of his pants and either lucks out or misses completely.

[Regis22]

By the tone of the discussion you would think that Carolina put an offfer sheet in for mcdavid or Mathews 🤣 

[habsisme]

6 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I forgot about the one playoff run my bad but that team was not built by MB that was inherited like you noted of Briesbrois/Yzerman

KK and Zuke tied for the team lead in 19-20 in goals and this year KK finished tied for 2nd on the team with 5 while Zuke led with 7. Also KK finished 5th on the team in points while playing 3rd line center. The only guys that had more points were Suzuki (16), Toffoli (14) Caufield (12) and Perry (10) that is the entire top line and Perry. That means KK out performed Anderson, Danault and Gallagher who all were top 6 forwards and never scratched. Yeah that guy is clearly a bust! 

You asked for a list of GM's better than MB, I gave you one!

I included Gallant because he could be a GM in the league and is available and is French and is better than MB! Holland is a middle of the pack guy but still better than MB as he is able to at least draft! Blake has turned the future of the Kings around in such a short time and that team looks to be competitive in the next 2 years. McCrimmon has Vegas as solid contenders for the foreseeable future. Waddell, whether or not you like his methods has Carolina as contenders as well and only getting stronger. Dubas, I am not really sold on but like I said he at least has a plan and is building what he thinks will be a contender, whereas MB just flies by the seat of his pants and either lucks out or misses completely.

Gallant isn't french (despite the french name) and he doesn't speak french

I'm NOT saying KK is a BUST. But he's not a 3rd overall pick. He's a mid round first round talent who hasn't improved very much in 3 years. If I saw something in his game, but I haven't at all. 

But we made the playoffs 6 times out of 9 years, we didn't miss 8 years of playoffs

[campabee82]

1 minute ago, Regis22 said:

By the tone of the discussion you would think that Carolina put an offfer sheet in for mcdavid or Mathews 🤣 

No, I just don't want to suffer through 10 more years of MB screwing up the team and not making the playoffs!

[Regis22]

2 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

No, I just don't want to suffer through 10 more years of MB screwing up the team and not making the playoffs!

I don’t think matching or not matching the offer is going to make much of a difference . It’s not like #15 was a difference maker . The past two years were a struggle to make the playoffs and I suspect it will be the ssme

 for the upcoming year 

[maas_art]

6 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I'm NOT saying KK is a BUST. But he's not a 3rd overall pick. He's a mid round first round talent who hasn't improved very much in 3 years. If I saw something in his game, but I haven't at all. 

I think this is fair. In any normal year he goes far lower.  There was absolutely nothing to choose from for centres that year and I still think BPA would have been the better choice. Also we had positional needs at LD too so Hughes would have been a better choice if you were going for position rather than BPA.    Right now, the best centre from that draft is probably Yegor Sharangovich who went in like the 5th round and has 30 points in 54 games.  Its pretty slim pickins even a few years later with regards to centre. Maybe one or more guys develops but right now JK is probably one of the top 3 centres from his draft & he's still way down on the development of where you'd expect a #3 overall to be..  
 

[maas_art]

4 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

I don’t think matching or not matching the offer is going to make much of a difference . It’s not like #15 was a difference maker . The past two years were a struggle to make the playoffs and I suspect it will be the ssme

 for the upcoming year 

True but we were already slim at centre & i think there was the hope that he would develop more this season.  

[campabee82]

8 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

I don’t think matching or not matching the offer is going to make much of a difference . It’s not like #15 was a difference maker . The past two years were a struggle to make the playoffs and I suspect it will be the ssme

 for the upcoming year 

What I am really trying to say is this, I would match the KK OS not because of Suzuki, that was just an observation as to why we should focus on locking our young guys up early and not trying to low ball them. I would match the OS because the compensation is not enough to let KK go, lets assume that Carolina finishes in the 15-25 range in the draft. Is that pick going to be better than KK is right now or help us in the next 2 years before Price and Petry look at retirement like KK would? No definitely not, IF we do match our team does still have 2 major holes 3C and a 2RHD. Without KK though our team is missing 2C, 3C and a 2RHD, plus we no longer have any leverage in a trade to upgrade the C position. Even if the plan is to keep KK for 1 year and trade him later or go to arbitration it is still better than losing any momentum and wasting more of Price and Petry's time.

[26NCounting]

If a player that put up 20 points is worth 6.1 million whats Suzuki worth who put up 41 points??  You can't possibly pay a player 6.1 on potential that's crazy.  You have to put the rest of the team in perspective, if the habs pay that kind of money to KK what are all contracts down the road worth??  If they do match on a one year deal they lose him next year for nothing!!

Not saying the kid doesn't have potential but he certainly isn't worth 6.1 per

[campabee82]

37 minutes ago, 26NCounting said:

If a player that put up 20 points is worth 6.1 million whats Suzuki worth who put up 41 points??  You can't possibly pay a player 6.1 on potential that's crazy.  You have to put the rest of the team in perspective, if the habs pay that kind of money to KK what are all contracts down the road worth??  If they do match on a one year deal they lose him next year for nothing!!

Not saying the kid doesn't have potential but he certainly isn't worth 6.1 per

My issue comes down to this, why is Suzuki considered untouchable whereas KK is considered expendable? Is it because Suzuki puts up more points? Do people just look at Suzuki and think he is a better center without looking at all aspects of the game? Do people not realize that advanced stats and possession matrix all favor KK over Suzuki? Do fans just think that because of who was drafted after KK and what they have done that KK should be automatically putting up more points than them?

Here are the stats and the webpages to back up my questions. I think Zuke definitely earned the top spot based on point production and he is more than capable of keeping that spot and IF Zuke would be a bargain at 6-8 Mil why is KK overpaid at 6.1? You will see that KK out performs Zuke in a lot of categories but Zuke out produces KK on the scoresheet. Is that due to lack of talent or lack of talented winger? I would rather keep both Zuke and KK and deal with moving wingers or depth D to make the cap work than losing either one of them.

This year KK had a better F/O percentage (47.9 reg season and 49.4 playoffs) in the playoffs and regular season than Suzuki did (44,0 reg season and 45.7 playoffs), so I don't know what you are looking at there. Also possession matrix was better at 51.6 for KK in the playoff and 50.6 for Zuke and regular season 59.4 for KK and 54.9 for Zuke. The only advanced stats where Zuke out performed KK this year was PTS/60 he was at 2.4 and KK was at 1.4. KK was even more physical than Zuke had 64 hits to KK's 84 in the regular season but zuke did out hit him in the playoffs 35 to 53. Suzuki is absolutely our top line center and deserves to be but don't sell KK short just cause he has not lit up the league like Zuke has, they are very similar players with the only numbers favoring Zuke are the ones on the scoresheet.

Here are the links to their stats

Kotkaniemi https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/k/kotkaje01.html

Suzuki https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/suzukni01.html

[booboo_mtl]

1 hour ago, campabee82 said:

What I am really trying to say is this, I would match the KK OS not because of Suzuki, that was just an observation as to why we should focus on locking our young guys up early and not trying to low ball them. I would match the OS because the compensation is not enough to let KK go, lets assume that Carolina finishes in the 15-25 range in the draft. Is that pick going to be better than KK is right now or help us in the next 2 years before Price and Petry look at retirement like KK would? No definitely not, IF we do match our team does still have 2 major holes 3C and a 2RHD. Without KK though our team is missing 2C, 3C and a 2RHD, plus we no longer have any leverage in a trade to upgrade the C position. Even if the plan is to keep KK for 1 year and trade him later or go to arbitration it is still better than losing any momentum and wasting more of Price and Petry's time.

I'd say yes pick #20 (for arguments sake) will be better than KK, especially when you take into account the cap $ that can be spent elsewhere. 2022 is a very deep draft

Also, if you're focusing your attention on winning a cup for Price or Petry , you risk your scenario of missing the playoffs for 10 years. I'm ok with losing this year, if Weber intends to return in 22-23 then lets tank and make a serious run the next season. Maybe I'm just still on a high from beating TO and making the finals but I'm ok with it.

KK holds his fate now, if we match I don't see him signing an extension for less $ with us, and then whats his trade value? basically nothing. He's going to be berated by our fans wherever he plays, so let him go. 

[maas_art]

Canes fans seem convinced we arent matching.  Interestingly most of them seem to think he will be used as a winger - or even sent to the minors... and they seem ok with that at $6.1m.   Interesting. 

[maas_art]

59 minutes ago, booboo_mtl said:

 He's going to be berated by our fans wherever he plays, so let him go. 

This is my biggest concerns.  People were losing patience with him at $975k.   What will happen at $6.1m?   

The rest of the stuff I think can be worked out but this one i think is too big of a hill to climb.   Unless he came in next season & just exploded into a top player, his life would be hell here. im 80% sure that MB doesnt match.  Im still not sure what I would do, but i think MB may let him walk & trade those pics. 

[Capital Habs Fan]

4 hours ago, campabee82 said:

For those willing to let KK gofor such a small return guess who else on Montreal is represented by KK's agents, Nick Suzuki! So guess who else will be signing an OS if MB tries to lowball him too, that's right Nick Suzuki! This one OS has so many ramifications if not matched that it just makes no sense not to match and deal with the cap later.

This is apples to oranges. Nick Suzuki has already shown enough to be penciled in at 1C this coming season and could be there for a very long time. If he even comes close to the expectations the Canadiens will open the wallet for him, giving him both good money and term, when the time comes.

KK has only been a 3C since he joined the team and has been sheltered for most of that time. He has not proven himself or lived up to the potential everybody sees in him. It makes sense to attempt to sign him to a bridge deal to see if he can achieve that. Either he did not want one or he does indeed not want to play for Montreal any more and this was a way for him to leave.

[Regis22]

12 minutes ago, Capital Habs Fan said:

He has not proven himself or lived up to the potential everybody sees in him. 

“Potential “  Where does this come from  ? We all sit behind our computers and have this idea of how good we think a certain player will become . I have zero ability to evaluate a prospects potential . Look at Scherback, Hudon and galchenyuk . All guys we thought we should keep because of their potential . Now they are either not in the nhl or still waiting to be signed by someone . Although Hudson’s been signed by Tampa . Maybe Jk isn’t as good as We think or as good as we hope he will be  

[arpem-can]

  The only way Bergevin comes out of this somewhat unscathed is if he can parlay the picks into a centre who will more useful than KK at a lower price  and as well lock up Suzuki this year . Otherwise Waddell further exacts his revenge and Bergevin knows that . Everybody in hockey sees this as a ridiculous offer and too much money . I like KK but he is now tainted by the Waddell factor . We can fully expect that any negotiations with Suzuki's agent will be a very tough feet -to -the -fire affair  and it wouldn't surprise me if Waddell offered Zuke  a similar deal next year-  I see KK signing a more reasonable 3 year deal for 3 mill a year when it's all said and done as long as he doesn't regress  . If Bergevin goes after say an questionable Eichel  the salary structure he's been able to keep at bay will collapse . I don't think that happens unless other players are involved in a trade that would  include salary retention on Buffalo's part ....a tall order likely not filled . Enticing Dvorak seems a more reasonable avenue if Bergevin can convince Arizona to let him go . They might not unless the pot is sweetened . This will be interesting at the very least .

[BigTed3]

Let's look at this from JK's perspective: if your two offers are 6.1M from Carolina or 2-3 years at 2.5-3M AAV from Montreal, you consider the higher contract offer. I don't think JK necessarily expects to be paid 6.1M long-term, but it gives him leverage to buck up his qualifying offer next year to over 5M (rather than be continually lowballed by Montreal) and it gives him a big payday and a chance to boost his value for a long-term deal.

I'm not concerned about the one year at 6.1M. As I said, there's no commitment here, so you can literally walk away in a year (and likely still recoup trade value then) if you don't want to pay him. But the odds are that moving a guy from playing 3rd-line minutes with Lehkonen/Armia/Byron to playing a 2nd-line role with the likes of Drouin, Hoffman, Toffoli, Anderson, or Gallagher will boost his production and value. In other words, I would be incredibly surprised if JK didn't have his best year as a pro. Will he be a 4M player at the end of next year or a 6M player or a 7.5M player, I don't know. But I don't think having to qualify him at 5.1M next year will be the end of the world and I think if we want to sign him long-term next off-season, an AAV of 5.5 to 6.5M is not going to seem unreasonable. Again, there are two outcomes: either he lives up to expectations and earns that type of long-term deal or he doesn't progress and you move on anyways.

People are talking about Dvorak, and he's a reasonable 3rd-line center option or poor man's 2C in a pinch. But he's not worth a 1st and a 3rd and I wouldn't trade JK straight up for him. Dvorak now is where we'd be with Kotkaniemi if he doesn't really progress 3 years from now and puts up 15-17 goals a year over that time. It's decent, but it's not where you want your 2C to be and it's not worth a 21-year old top prospect. It would be devastating if MB takes the picks and flips them for a mid-level player. You keep the guy with the potential to be top-end, not the guy who's established as average. If we're walking away from JK, you either need a top-end potential guy as a replacement or you need a guy who is established as a top 2 center (an Eichel, a Pettersson, a Hertl...). We shouldn't be accepting a downgrade just to get out of one year of 6M.

[habsisme]

I've made it pretty clear I don't want them to match but one thing in favor of matching that I didn't think of before is club-elected arbitration. I'm not 100% on this but I believe that the team could force arbitration rather than a 6 million dollar qualifying offer. If this is the case then it changes my perspective a bit. 

I'd still rather move on, especially if we can trade for someone else. I actually like Dvorak a lot and he seems like an all situation player. I'd give up the first and third for him if the first is lottery protected