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Tank Watch


H_T_L
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Well,,, we don't have an MN thread to keep us occupied with 34 games to go, so this is the next best thing on a lost season.

Boiling down to a 2 team race for last overall and the best odds at the number 1 pick.

Yotes sitting on 28 pts and the Habs on 23.

Advantages for us??

1.No goaltending

2.No defense

3.Selling off has begun with Toffu the 1st victim. 

Tues. March 15th is a date to mark on the calendar with the Yotes in town.

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Yeah we are going to finish last, Tofu going first says it all we are selling and selling hard! It is what it is so if we are going to do it do it right sell as high as the market will bear and get as many picks and prospects as you can. If we suck next year too we will have had time to see how the players we have left and the ones we picked up are doing and we can tank next year too as long as the team is playing hard and developing a system and good chemistry for the future.

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1 minute ago, ramcharger440 said:

Yeah we are going to finish last, Tofu going first says it all we are selling and selling hard! It is what it is so if we are going to do it do it right sell as high as the market will bear and get as many picks and prospects as you can. If we suck next year too we will have had time to see how the players we have left and the ones we picked up are doing and we can tank next year too as long as the team is playing hard and developing a system and good chemistry for the future.

Fully expect us to be terrible next season as well.

I may actually tune in for some games next year, though. We're getting a fresh start and I'm excited to see what the roster looks like to begin the 2022-23 season. Let the multi-year tank roll on!

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The Yotes are currently on a big home stand with 7 games to go. They could potentially win a couple of those. We are playing better this week so we may just break out with a win or two ourselves. Goaltending will no doubt factor in that materializing or not. Price still not skating and Allen at least another month away (probably more). Hamburger is the wild card in all this. Does he suck, or channel Vezina in an effort to re establish himself as an NHL tender? My money is on the first with this D in front of him.

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7 hours ago, electron58 said:

Sweet chart!  Hopefully the bad luck ends before the draft,  and we are declared the unanimous winners of the 2022 NHL Draft!    👍

Lose to win! Sounds really weird.

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Fortunately between the way the lottery works and the hole this team has dug, we pretty much have a bottom-3 finish locked up, so don't have too much incentive to cheer against Montreal (additionally, the new rule about not being able to win the draft lottery twice in 5 years reduces the desire to win this year somewhat).

I suspect Arizona finishes last now that Montreal seems to be respectable, but honestly not a big difference between finishing last and second or third last.

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24.  Chicago        52      18     26        8     44

25.  NYI               45      18     20        7     43       

26.  Ottawa          49     18      26       5      41

27.  Philadelphia  50     15      25     10      40

28.  Buffalo           51     16      27      8       40

29.  New Jersey   50      17     28      5       39

30.   Seattle          52      16     32      4       36 

31.   Arizona         50      13     33      4       30

32.  Montreal       51      11     33      7       29

We're on our first 3 game winning streak of the year.  We can easily lose the fight for Wright. The other teams really didn't have any excuses and now that we seem to be getting respectable goaltending and some players are playing to their potential (because of MSL) we may start winning quite a few more games while the other teams recognize that tanking is the way to go.  Did we tank too early? I think that we can pass the 5 teams directly above us, and then we are in no man's land. Especially if we drop 3 more places at the draft.  We could end up picking 9th. At what point, does the pick become Arizona's?

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41 minutes ago, electron58 said:

24.  Chicago        52      18     26        8     44

25.  NYI               45      18     20        7     43       

26.  Ottawa          49     18      26       5      41

27.  Philadelphia  50     15      25     10      40

28.  Buffalo           51     16      27      8       40

29.  New Jersey   50      17     28      5       39

30.   Seattle          52      16     32      4       36 

31.   Arizona         50      13     33      4       30

32.  Montreal       51      11     33      7       29

We're on our first 3 game winning streak of the year.  We can easily lose the fight for Wright. The other teams really didn't have any excuses and now that we seem to be getting respectable goaltending and some players are playing to their potential (because of MSL) we may start winning quite a few more games while the other teams recognize that tanking is the way to go.  Did we tank too early? I think that we can pass the 5 teams directly above us, and then we are in no man's land. Especially if we drop 3 more places at the draft.  We could end up picking 9th. At what point, does the pick become Arizona's?

Mathematically it's possible, but with the loser point, it's just so hard to make up ground with teams above you. Making up 10 points in 31 games seems doable on paper but in reality is really hard. Montreal is still going to lose games and teams above us are still going to win games.  Normally we apply this logic to making the playoffs, but shouldn't be terribly different here.

I fully expect us to pass Arizona, with a decent shot at Seattle if the team can keep playing this way, but realistically it would take an big collapse of one of the above teams (or Montreal playing like one of the better teams in the league) to go much further. 

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2 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

Mathematically it's possible, but with the loser point, it's just so hard to make up ground with teams above you. Making up 10 points in 31 games seems doable on paper but in reality is really hard. Montreal is still going to lose games and teams above us are still going to win games.  Normally we apply this logic to making the playoffs, but shouldn't be terribly different here.

I fully expect us to pass Arizona, with a decent shot at Seattle if the team can keep playing this way, but realistically it would take an big collapse of one of the above teams (or Montreal playing like one of the better teams in the league) to go much further. 

I sincerely hope, that you are correct.

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  • 2 weeks later...

FWIW in terms of projected standings, The Athletic has a predictive model that has the Habs finishing at 58 points and in 31st place, 4 points ahead of the Coyotes. It has the Sabres at 61, Kraken at 65, and no other team below 70.

The prediction site fivethirtyeight also had a model that sees the Habs sit at 58 points at season's end, in a tie with Arizona for last spot. They have the Kraken at 62, Sabres at 65, and Flyers at 68, with NJ at 69.

All that to say that we currently sit at 33 points after 54 games. So with 28 games remaining, getting up to 58 points would require a record of 12-15-1 the rest of the way. Of our remaining games, we have the following

- Games against playoff-caliber teams: at Cgy, Fla, Tor, at Fla, at Car, at TB, at Tor, at NYR, Fla (3 home, 6 away)

- Games against bubble teams: at Edm, at Van, Dal, Bos, Wpg, at Clb, Min, Was, Bos (6 home, 3 away)

- Games against teams that are essentially out: Sea, at Phi, Ari, Ott, at NJ, Ott, at NJ, NYI, Phi, at Ott (6 home, 4 away)

Now we're definitely a better team than our current record. Also important to remember, though, that many of these games will be after the trade deadline, when the bubble/playoff teams could be stronger and the non-playoff teams including us could be weaker. A big key here could be whether we get Allen back and trade him or keep him. If we go the rest of the year with lower-rated goalies, it increases our chances of a weak finish.

So if I project this, let's say we go 3-6 against the top-tier teams, 4-4-1 against the bubble teams, and 6-4 against the eliminated teams as a reasonable possible record. This would give us 27 points and leave us at 60 points to end the year, potentially still good enough for 2nd last based on both models. But anything better than that starts to move the needle higher in the standings, particularly if we accumulate more wins against the bottom-feeders (since those are minus 4 point games). The tilt against Seattle could be a key one on Mar 12 for position in standings, and I imagine we'll win that with it being our first home game back at full capacity.

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46 minutes ago, RCAF48 said:

^^^^ Thank you for the research. 

I will always favour winning over losing regardless of the draft positioning but your projections will make me feel less guilty doing so.

I agree I wouldn't feel any different if another Crosby or Gretsky was available. I have to think getting healthier we'll be better than a 500 team the rest of the season. I want to see the team win as many as possible moving forward. 

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2 hours ago, H_T_L said:

Yotes keeping pace with a big win over the Sens today.

 

1 hour ago, electron58 said:

1 point ahead of us now, depending on the outcome of this game.

We are now 1 point ahead of Coyotes again!

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30 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Yotes with a big win tonight

Literally!  A 9-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings. Arizona moves to one point ahead of the Canadiens, with both having played 56 games. Arizona one point back of Seattle & Habs 2 points back, with both having 3 games in hand.

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8 hours ago, electron58 said:

Literally!  A 9-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings. Arizona moves to one point ahead of the Canadiens, with both having played 56 games. Arizona one point back of Seattle & Habs 2 points back, with both having 3 games in hand.

New Market either this year or next Seattle is going to have the 1st overall Arizona will most likely get it this season.

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2 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

New Market either this year or next Seattle is going to have the 1st overall Arizona will most likely get it this season.

As long as we get a top 5 pick i think we will get a quality player.  There's so much diversity - and many question marks - in this year's draft Im not sure the top 1-3 picks are going to end up any better than #4 or 5 tbh. 

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