Jump to content
The Official Site of the Montréal Canadiens
Canadiens de Montreal

Tank Watch


H_T_L
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

As long as we get a top 5 pick i think we will get a quality player.  There's so much diversity - and many question marks - in this year's draft Im not sure the top 1-3 picks are going to end up any better than #4 or 5 tbh. 

Always possible the 5th player is better than the 2nd or that the 9th is better than the 3rd or so on. But the odds of getting a good player are higher the higher up you are in the draft. Ultimately, I think it depends how much faith you have in your scouting department and how much difference you see between players. It could be that you have players 1-4 in one tier and then a clear drop-off in where your scouts rank guys and players 5-9 in another tier and so on.

For this particular draft, I think there are two factors that are of importance to us:

1. We clearly have an organizational need at C and RHD. There are three centers ranked in the top 5 and probably one RHD in Nemec in the top 5-7. It likely benefits us more as an organization to end up with one of those players as BPA at the time we draft than to pick up a Slafkovsky or a Kemell or so on or to drop further down and get a Nazar or a Jiricek.

2. Also important to remember you can fall two spots via the lottery system, so wherever we finish means we can technically also do two places worse... to guarantee a top 5 pick, you need to finish bottom 3. The biggest change in positioning to us is if we don't finish in the last 8. At that point, we're at risk of dropping out of the top 10 picks, and if we do, then our pick (if it's #11 overall) would go to Arizona and we end up with Carolina's late first rounder instead. That would be a major disaster. If it got to that point, I would purposely play inferior players (ie recall Ouellet and so on, sit guys who are slightly injured, give big minutes to Savard, play our back-up goalies, etc.) to guarantee a bottom 8 finish. Yes, you don't want to have a tanking culture but a drop of 20 picks would be horrendous.

 

43 minutes ago, AH64 said:

Looks like Seattle will win the tank battle.

Seattle is falling fast and are going to be selling off players soon too. I think they and Arizona are much more likely to finish below us at this point, and it's not a guarantee that teams like Buffalo won't fall too. I think we're likely going to finish somewhere in the 3rd to 7th last spot when all is said and done, which is a bit meh IMO. We'll still get a valuable player in the draft if that's the case, but it may not be a game changer and it won't be a guy who impacts us within the first two years. IMO it could end up being more of a guy who ends up being like an Evan Bouchard or Zabinejad or Faksa in terms of degree of impact, which helps your team but doesn't advance your franchise's global position much. Right now, I see 3-4 guys in the draft who move the needle on making your franchise better (Wright, Savoie, Cooley, and maybe Nemec). It doesn't mean those are the best players to be drafted, but I think they have the highest top-end in terms of being franchise players. A guy like Yurov or Kemell or Mintyukov could be strong but I'm not sure they're franchise players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26.  Ottawa          57     21      31      5       47

27.  New Jersey   58     21      32      5       47

28.  Philadelphia  57     18      29     10      46

29.  Buffalo           59     19      32      8       46

30.   Arizona         57      18     35      4       40

31.   Seattle          60      17     37      6       40 

32.  Montreal       57      15     35      7       37

Just when we start to win, others decide to do the same. That's OK.  We're playing well, and not gaining to much. Best of both worlds if the standings stay the same. Still would really like to get a top 5 pick, if possible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Fivethirtyeight currently projects us to finish on 61 points and in 31st place, just ahead of Seattle at 60. Arizona would sit at 64, Buffalo 66, Philly 69, and NJ 70.

The Athletic projects us to sit at 61 points as well, also 31st but ahead of Arizona at 58. Buffalo would sit tied with us at 61, Seattle at 62, and then no one else until Philly at 72.

All that to say that it appears to be very tight between us, Arizona, and Seattle for the bottom 3, with Buffalo falling back into this group as well and Philly on the fringe. As noted, the next week will be a key determinant in the final standings with our having many 4-point games against these teams. With our sitting at 37 points and with 25 games to go, it would take a record of 12-13 to send us to 61 points, and while I appreciate these websites projecting based on how we've played this season, we've also been better since the coaching change and have won 7 of our last 9. I have a hard time projecting us to finish under .500, especially with 10 games against teams in the bottom of the standings like us the rest of the way. Some of this could also come down to what we do at the trade deadline though... dump Petry and Lehkonen and it makes it harder. But if we get Allen and/or Price back, then our winning percentage is likely higher than with Monty and Primeau. Personally, I'm going to predict we finish on 63-64 points depending on what happens at the trade deadline and that would likely put us 3rd or 4th last and potentially out of the top 5 picks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Fivethirtyeight currently projects us to finish on 61 points and in 31st place, just ahead of Seattle at 60. Arizona would sit at 64, Buffalo 66, Philly 69, and NJ 70.

The Athletic projects us to sit at 61 points as well, also 31st but ahead of Arizona at 58. Buffalo would sit tied with us at 61, Seattle at 62, and then no one else until Philly at 72.

All that to say that it appears to be very tight between us, Arizona, and Seattle for the bottom 3, with Buffalo falling back into this group as well and Philly on the fringe. As noted, the next week will be a key determinant in the final standings with our having many 4-point games against these teams. With our sitting at 37 points and with 25 games to go, it would take a record of 12-13 to send us to 61 points, and while I appreciate these websites projecting based on how we've played this season, we've also been better since the coaching change and have won 7 of our last 9. I have a hard time projecting us to finish under .500, especially with 10 games against teams in the bottom of the standings like us the rest of the way. Some of this could also come down to what we do at the trade deadline though... dump Petry and Lehkonen and it makes it harder. But if we get Allen and/or Price back, then our winning percentage is likely higher than with Monty and Primeau. Personally, I'm going to predict we finish on 63-64 points depending on what happens at the trade deadline and that would likely put us 3rd or 4th last and potentially out of the top 5 picks.

Well, we'll at least get to keep our pick.  There's that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Realistically, there are probably only 7 teams that we can catch in the standings. The Isles are 8 spots ahead of us and sit at 54 points (17 in front) with two games in hand.

Of the 7 others, Chi should beat Ott tonight. Ari and Phi both lost. NJ won. Sea up against us now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here are the point totals if the other 7 teams in the fight for 1st overall play just .250 hockey the rest of the way:

- Chi 63 pts

- NJ 61 pts

- Ott 59 pts

- Phi 58 pts

- Buf 58 pts

- Sea 53 pts

- Ari 52 pts

 

And here's the Habs total points depending on they're record the rest of the way, as well as what place in the standings they'd have if everyone else plays .250:

- .250 hockey: 50 pts (32nd and last)

- .400 hockey: 57 pts (30th, 3rd last)

- .500 hockey: 62 pts (26th, 7th last)

- .600 hockey: 67 pts (likely 25th, 8th last)

 

It's near-impossible that all of these teams play .250 hockey, although a couple might, especially if they have big firesales at the deadline. All that to say that it's looking decent for us to have a bottom 6 finish even if we play .500 hockey the rest of the way. The big games the rest of the way against fellow tankers are at Phi tomorrow, Ari, Ott, at NJ, Ott, at NJ, NYI, Phi, and at Ott. No further games against Chi, Sea, or Buf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

That is truly sad there is even such a website

It allows for you to simulate the draft to a certain degree. The one thing I have not seen is a team from 12-16 win a lottery and the top team be able to retain their pick.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With upcoming moves we are not going to get better this season I am sure we will win a few but we should finish last and at least I feel like we will do it with some honour the guys are working hard now and they are not just giving up like before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, ramcharger440 said:

With upcoming moves we are not going to get better this season I am sure we will win a few but we should finish last and at least I feel like we will do it with some honour the guys are working hard now and they are not just giving up like before.

Yeah, gotta give management some credit, I think the coaching change came at the right time after all.  We're still going to get our draft pick, but it's not going to risk instilling the kind of "losing culture" that we were seeing develop earlier in the season.  Plus our guys like Caufield get to finish the season on a high note with some positive momentum/vibes for next year.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Manatee-X said:

Yeah, gotta give management some credit, I think the coaching change came at the right time after all.  We're still going to get our draft pick, but it's not going to risk instilling the kind of "losing culture" that we were seeing develop earlier in the season.  Plus our guys like Caufield get to finish the season on a high note with some positive momentum/vibes for next year.

 

Entirely agree. A good snippet on why the tank job doesn’t work. I especially like that besides Oilers and Sabres, it hasn’t worked at all for the leafs! 
https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/stu-cowan-canadiens-fans-yearning-for-a-tank-job-take-heed

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, claremont said:

Entirely agree. A good snippet on why the tank job doesn’t work. I especially like that besides Oilers and Sabres, it hasn’t worked at all for the leafs! 
https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/stu-cowan-canadiens-fans-yearning-for-a-tank-job-take-heed

 

I suppose I'm the minority opinion, but I strongly disagree with just about everything in that article.  I do want to say I'm against rooting for the other team in my building, that's never okay, but what about the rest?  So for example, was "losing culture" the reason why Edmonton doesn't win?  What about the fact that they still haven't plugged the holes on their blueline or in goaltending?  Let's also be honest, Buffalo and Edmonton just are terribly ran clubs.  Cowan went into no details on what he thought about teams that got good draft picks and did well.  That's the definition of confirmation bias.

And while we're at it, let's also be honest about he habs.  We're a terrible hockey club, even with Price and Weber.  We haven't won a cup in 30 years, haven't been relevant for about 10 and in normal years, wouldn't have made the playoffs in 5 or 6.  Supposedly we don't have a losing culture, but it didn't help much.  So what's the difference between Buffalo, Edmonton and us other than the fact that we didn't have high picks?

We can do better on strategy, coaching, development, planning, all that good stuff, but we CAN'T miraculously get talent we don't have.  We're not a world class hockey club at this point and admitting that is the first step.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Disillusioned1 said:

I suppose I'm the minority opinion, but I strongly disagree with just about everything in that article.  I do want to say I'm against rooting for the other team in my building, that's never okay, but what about the rest?  So for example, was "losing culture" the reason why Edmonton doesn't win?  What about the fact that they still haven't plugged the holes on their blueline or in goaltending?  Let's also be honest, Buffalo and Edmonton just are terribly ran clubs.  Cowan went into no details on what he thought about teams that got good draft picks and did well.  That's the definition of confirmation bias.

And while we're at it, let's also be honest about he habs.  We're a terrible hockey club, even with Price and Weber.  We haven't won a cup in 30 years, haven't been relevant for about 10 and in normal years, wouldn't have made the playoffs in 5 or 6.  Supposedly we don't have a losing culture, but it didn't help much.  So what's the difference between Buffalo, Edmonton and us other than the fact that we didn't have high picks?

We can do better on strategy, coaching, development, planning, all that good stuff, but we CAN'T miraculously get talent we don't have.  We're not a world class hockey club at this point and admitting that is the first step.

True, but we are the only team which starts with a torch ceremony at the season opener!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, habs1952 said:

True, but we are the only team which starts with a torch ceremony at the season opener!

Oh absolutely.  Don't get me wrong, I'm not happy that we're losing.  The gist is, whether we are intentionally losing (which I don't think we are) or unintentionally losing, what's the difference?  I mean, I vaguely remember the 93 run, but my kids weren't even born back then yet.  And they don't really have some "heroes" to look up to.  If we're talking about losing culture, I'd say we already have it.  Take a year or two and deal with to try to be competitive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Disillusioned1 said:

I suppose I'm the minority opinion, but I strongly disagree with just about everything in that article.  I do want to say I'm against rooting for the other team in my building, that's never okay, but what about the rest?  So for example, was "losing culture" the reason why Edmonton doesn't win?  What about the fact that they still haven't plugged the holes on their blueline or in goaltending?  Let's also be honest, Buffalo and Edmonton just are terribly ran clubs.  Cowan went into no details on what he thought about teams that got good draft picks and did well.  That's the definition of confirmation bias.

And while we're at it, let's also be honest about he habs.  We're a terrible hockey club, even with Price and Weber.  We haven't won a cup in 30 years, haven't been relevant for about 10 and in normal years, wouldn't have made the playoffs in 5 or 6.  Supposedly we don't have a losing culture, but it didn't help much.  So what's the difference between Buffalo, Edmonton and us other than the fact that we didn't have high picks?

We can do better on strategy, coaching, development, planning, all that good stuff, but we CAN'T miraculously get talent we don't have.  We're not a world class hockey club at this point and admitting that is the first step.

I haven't read that Cowan article (and probably won't :lol:, nothing against Cowan), but yeah... Edmonton and Buffalo have been run terribly for years.

Did "tanking" make Buffalo acquire Jeff Skinner?

Edmonton hasn't had anything but offensive flair for a decade. They still haven't bothered to fix their long-running goaltending issue and have 25+% of their cap dedicated to two players. Amazing players, but... Their entire D only accounts for 26% of the team's cap.

I think even saying "tank" is silly. A team does bad, it gets higher draft picks to help. That's how sports leagues work. When your team is doing poorly, there's nothing wrong with supporting some losses with the hope that the entry draft will be exciting and reinvigorating moment for the team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, claremont said:

Entirely agree. A good snippet on why the tank job doesn’t work. I especially like that besides Oilers and Sabres, it hasn’t worked at all for the leafs! 
https://montrealgazette.com/sports/hockey/nhl/hockey-inside-out/stu-cowan-canadiens-fans-yearning-for-a-tank-job-take-heed

 

For every team it hasn't  worked for it has for other's

Chicago, TOWES #3 in 2006 and Kane # 1 2007  -- stanley cups

Pitsburg, Malkin #2, in 2004 and Crosby # 1 2005 -- Stanley cups

Tampa, Stamkos # 2008 and Hedman # 2 2009 -- Stanley Cups

Its what  you do with the other draft picks and how you develop them ..

But, elite talent generally prevails. as for Edmonton and Toronto,  the clock is not at midnight for those two yet. I would love to have there talent on the habs roster. Buffalo that is just unexplainable ????

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • H_T_L locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...