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48 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Edmonton hasn't had anything but offensive flair for a decade. They still haven't bothered to fix their long-running goaltending issue and have 25+% of their cap dedicated to two players. Amazing players, but... Their entire D only accounts for 26% of the team's cap.

The McDavid & Draisatl contracts dont bother me - as you said, they are amazing players - its the big contract to good players that is reallyhurting them.  Pittsburgh built around the idea you have have two elite, well paid centres, but you've got to surround them with cheap players.   Edmonton has the oft injured RNH at $5.1m, Hyman at 5.5, And their defense is badly overpaid for what they are. Keith at $5.5m, Barrie at $4.5m Ceci at $3.25. these guys all make Chiarot and Edmundson at $3.5m look like steals.  And then there's Darnell Nurse.   very good player.  Currently makes $5.5m or so... next year starts his $9.25m contract... That is going to hurt. 

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23 hours ago, campabee82 said:

It allows for you to simulate the draft to a certain degree. The one thing I have not seen is a team from 12-16 win a lottery and the top team be able to retain their pick.

It could definitely be named something different though, maybe just draft watch anything but "tankathon" .

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Interestingly, when I ran through about 15-20 simulations, we (currently ranked last) got 1st pick a little over half the time. The other pick we got was 3rd.  Never once did we get 2nd.  I know that stats for finishing last is something like 25% 1st, 20% 2nd and 55% 3rd but i didnt see one scenario where we got second.  

The only advantage to getting last overall is that you know for sure you're getting a top 3 pick.  I can live with anything up to a top 5 (I think we'll still get our 1st or 2nd choice with even a 5th overall pick) but that means ideally we shouldnt fall worse than 3rd from last or else you run the risk of a late top 10 pick... 

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58 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Interestingly, when I ran through about 15-20 simulations, we (currently ranked last) got 1st pick a little over half the time. The other pick we got was 3rd.  Never once did we get 2nd.  I know that stats for finishing last is something like 25% 1st, 20% 2nd and 55% 3rd but i didnt see one scenario where we got second.  

The only advantage to getting last overall is that you know for sure you're getting a top 3 pick.  I can live with anything up to a top 5 (I think we'll still get our 1st or 2nd choice with even a 5th overall pick) but that means ideally we shouldnt fall worse than 3rd from last or else you run the risk of a late top 10 pick... 

The advantages to finishing last are actually greater than they were last year or two years ago. Why?

1. As you said, you can only fall to 3rd now because there are only two draws as opposed to three. So whereas last-place teams have fallen to 4th OV, now it's at worst 3rd.

2. Teams can only move up ten slots now, so if team 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 wins the first lottery, then the Habs are awarded the 1st OV pick. Before they would have been awarded 1st and then there would have been another draw and so on, but with this format, it favors the last place team even more. The 2nd-last place team does not get locked into 2nd OV even if team 15 wins the first draw. They still have to have the 2nd lottery for 2nd OV, so there are two chances to fall down.

And as before, your odds of simply winning yourself are higher if you're last than 2nd-last.

So in general, if the Habs finished last, they would get the 1st OV pick if they won the lottery themselves OR if teams 12-16 won. If another team in the top 11 leap-frogged them for pick 1, then they would get 2nd OV if they won the 2nd draw themselves or if teams 13-16 won the 2nd draw. But yes, the odds of 2nd overall are lower than the odds of 1st or 3rd the way the draws are done now. Just random chance you didn't see one I guess.

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1 hour ago, caperns61 said:

For every team it hasn't  worked for it has for other's

Chicago, TOWES #3 in 2006 and Kane # 1 2007  -- stanley cups

Pitsburg, Malkin #2, in 2004 and Crosby # 1 2005 -- Stanley cups

Tampa, Stamkos # 2008 and Hedman # 2 2009 -- Stanley Cups

Its what  you do with the other draft picks and how you develop them ..

But, elite talent generally prevails. as for Edmonton and Toronto,  the clock is not at midnight for those two yet. I would love to have there talent on the habs roster. Buffalo that is just unexplainable ????

 

Agreed with this: elite talent wins out more than not. It's clear that you can't only have top picks to win a Cup, but most teams that win Cups do so on a foundation of having had a top 3 pick or two in their core. I'd add Washington having Ovi as their star. The Kings were anchored by Doughty as a #2 overall pick. Even the Avs from the 90s were built around having drafted first overall many times in a row and finding players like Sundin, Nolan, and Lindros that they swapped out to build their roster. If over an 8-year span there are 24 top-3 picks that are chosen by say 16 different teams, then obviously not every team is going to win a Cup, and you also need other things to go right in terms of management, health, trades, etc. But for the most part, finding two elite centers, two big-minute puck-moving D men, and a scoring winger of some sort set you up well for success. You can get lucky and find 1-2 of those pieces further down the draft (Aho in Carolina for example) or via free agency (Tavares in Toronto) but it helps to have the backbone of top 3 picks.

Look at the contenders this year... Tampa is still up there. So is Pittsburgh. Carolina has Svechnikov as one of their top players to go along with their gem in Aho. Florida has Barkov and Huberdeau. Toronto has Matthews and Tavares and then Reilly and Marner as guys just outside the cusp of that top 3. Washington has Ovi still. The Rangers got lucky with Panarin and Fox wanting to play there, but they technically still have Lafreniere and Kakko as top 3 picks. Boston added Hall as a former top 3 pick to their roster. All 8 playoff teams in the East have at least one top 3 pick on their roster and many have multiple top 3 picks. In the West, Colorado has Mackinnon and Landeskog anchoring their line-up, along with Makar and Byram who were both 4th OV. Edmonton has McDavid and Draisaitl. Dallas is running Seguin and Heiskanen among their best players. The correlation isn't perfect, but top picks are vital to improving your odds of team success.

 

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Habs have 21 remaining games:

Home: Ott x2, Bos x 2, Fla x2, Tor, Wpg, NYI, Was, Min, Phi

Away: NJ x2, Fla, Car, TB, Tor, Clb, Ott, NYR

8 of the 21 are against teams that are essentially eliminated from the post-season like us. So let's say we manage to go 6-2 in those games and hold at .500 in the games against tougher opposition. That would give us 25 points in our last 21 games and put us at 66 points total by the end of the season. If that were the case, both fivethirtyeight and The Athletic projections would suggest we'd end up 4th-last.

If we simply play .500 hockey the rest of the way, that would leave us at 62 points and that would project us at 3rd last in The Athletic standings and 2nd last in the fivethirtyeight one.

If we play .400 against the playoff-bound teams and .500 against the bottom-feeders, that gives us 59 points total and would project us last overall in both sets.

So that gives you an updated idea of where we'll rank based on how we play out the season.

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The fact we're still 32nd in points after this impressive stretch just goes to show how difficult it is to make up points in the NHL, and I'm still fairly confident in my prediction we're unlikely to finish better than 30th.

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On 3/20/2022 at 9:43 PM, Graeme-1 said:

The fact we're still 32nd in points after this impressive stretch just goes to show how difficult it is to make up points in the NHL, and I'm still fairly confident in my prediction we're unlikely to finish better than 30th.

My bet will be that we finish 30th - Seattle will be weakened by the loss of Giordano, Johansson Appleton and a few others.  Arizona lost a good goalie in Wedgewood. Combine that with MSL coaching, Price returning for a few games, Allen starting to play at a high level, the compete culture is better - IMO we will be a better team than the other 2 over the closing stretch, despite losing Chiarot, Lehkonen. I’m resolving to myself that we should at worst get a top 5 pick in the lottery. 

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9 hours ago, claremont said:

My bet will be that we finish 30th - Seattle will be weakened by the loss of Giordano, Johansson Appleton and a few others.  Arizona lost a good goalie in Wedgewood. Combine that with MSL coaching, Price returning for a few games, Allen starting to play at a high level, the compete culture is better - IMO we will be a better team than the other 2 over the closing stretch, despite losing Chiarot, Lehkonen. I’m resolving to myself that we should at worst get a top 5 pick in the lottery. 

I definitely think it's going to be hard to stay behind Arizona and Seattle, although one team can go on a run (win 5 out of 6) and that can be enough to carry them the rest of the way. The sample size of games remaining is small now, so the variation is going to be large (ie a small amount of luck can have a large impact on the final standings).

I'm also a bit worried about some of the other teams in front of us. It would be very very hard for us to catch Detroit or anyone in front of them, being 15 points behind with only 19 games to go. So I think our odds of finishing bottom 8 are 99%, which means at the very least we're keeping our own 1st round choice. I also feel relatively good about not catching Chicago (9 points in front) or NJ (7 points in front but with a decent amount of firepower still left on their roster). Hopefully Buffalo isn't an issue either, although they're an enigmatic team prone to big slumps all of a sudden. But that leaves us with Ottawa (5 points in front) and Philly (7 points in front) as well. Ottawa lost Chabot for the year and traded Paul. Philly lost Giroux among others. Both teams have more road games left than home games. The only saving grace is that Ottawa has a light schedule, with 12 games left against non-playoff teams. Philly has 9 of 19 left against non-playoff teams. One caveat is that both Philly and Buffalo play a lot of their next games against tougher opposition (Phi plays its next 6 against playoff teams an Buffalo plays 11 of their next 13 against playoff teams), so I expect both are going to fall back in the standings in the next 2-3 weeks.

From our end, I think the next two weeks will also be telling. We have home games against Fla and Tor, followed by 6 of 7 on the road. If we play .400 or worse over those 9 games, then our odds of finishing down the pack are higher. If we play .500 or better in those games, then I think a bottom 3 finish looks more grim.

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26.  Buffalo           64     23      33      8      54

27.  Philadelphia  64     21      32     11      53

28.  Ottawa          64     23      36      5       51

29.  New Jersey   64     23      36      5       51

30.   Seattle          64      20     38      6       46 

31.   Arizona         63      20     39      4       44

32.  Montreal       64      17     37     10      44

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15 games to go. The Athletic projects us to finish on 59 points and in 31st place, ahead of only Arizona. Fivethirtyeaight projects us to finish at 60 points and in a tie for last with Arizona. Here are our remaining games:

- Home: Ott, Wpg, NYI, Was, Min, Phi, Bos, Fla

- Away; Car, TB, NJ, Tor, Clb, Ott, NYR

 

If we go 9-6 in these games, that leaves us at 65 points and would project us to finish 3rd last in both data-sets.

If we go 7-7-1, it would leave us at 62 points and would project us to finish 2nd last in both sets.

If we go 5-10, it would leave us at 57 points, which is what The Athletic is projecting we would need to do to finish last.

 

Seattle and Arizona remain our biggest threats, but Ottawa and Philly are fading quickly and entering the mix for a bottom finish.

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12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

15 games to go. The Athletic projects us to finish on 59 points and in 31st place, ahead of only Arizona. Fivethirtyeaight projects us to finish at 60 points and in a tie for last with Arizona. Here are our remaining games:

- Home: Ott, Wpg, NYI, Was, Min, Phi, Bos, Fla

- Away; Car, TB, NJ, Tor, Clb, Ott, NYR

we go 9-6 in these games, that leaves us at 65 points and would project us to finish 3rd last in both data-sets.

If we go 7-7-1, it would leave us at 62 points and would project us to finish 2nd last in both sets.

If we go 5-10, it would leave us at 57 points, which is what The Athletic is projecting we would need to do to finish last.

Seattle and Arizona remain our biggest threats, but Ottawa and Philly are fading quickly and entering the mix for a bottom finish.

AZ - Home: - SJ, Ana, Van, NJ, Car, Chi, Wash, STL, Nash Away - Chi, STL, Vegas, Van, Calg, Minn, Dall 

Krak - Home - Vegas, Vegas, Dallas, Calg, NJ, Ott, Col, LA, SJ    Away - STL, Chi, Calg, Wpg, Minn, Dall,  Van

On strength of schedule, we need Ottawa to play better - I would prefer a top 4 pick (finishing 2nd last), but I suspect we will be 3rd last for a top 5 pick. Still having 4 picks in the top 55 picks (assuming Oilers are bounced early), adds a lot of interest to this draft.  

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27.  Philadelphia  67     21      35     11      53

28.  New Jersey   66     24      37      5       53

29.  Ottawa           66     23      37       6      52

30.   Seattle          67      21     40       6      48 

31.   Arizona         67      21     41       5      47

32.  Montreal       67      18     38     11      47

The race for the bottom is getting close. You wonder, with all the talent that Ottawa has,  why they're doing so bad.

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6 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

With Clayton Keller being done for the season, I guess that's going to give Arizona the advantage when it comes to tanking. 

Definitely will hurt them but they're so bad in every way im not sure.

I still think we'll finish bottom 3 - ensuring us a top 5 pick - which is all i really want.   With a weird year like this Im not sure I'd even want 1st over.  I mean of course you would - you'd just take the guy you want - but its really a tough call on who should go 1-5. 

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8 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

With Clayton Keller being done for the season, I guess that's going to give Arizona the advantage when it comes to tanking. 

Yeah, they also announced that Chychrun may not actually come back this year, so they're really tanking hard over there in Arizona. I look at Arizona, Seattle, and Philly and they all really really suck. Big time. Those are bad teams. And yet we're holding pace with them as being just as bad. I know we're also missing Petry, Gallagher, Drouin, etc. but I guess we're also deep down a pretty bad team. Allen has masked some of that since he came back, but I think if we played Montembeault the rest of the way we'd finish last.

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8 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Yeah, they also announced that Chychrun may not actually come back this year, so they're really tanking hard over there in Arizona. I look at Arizona, Seattle, and Philly and they all really really suck. Big time. Those are bad teams. And yet we're holding pace with them as being just as bad. I know we're also missing Petry, Gallagher, Drouin, etc. but I guess we're also deep down a pretty bad team. Allen has masked some of that since he came back, but I think if we played Montembeault the rest of the way we'd finish last.

Forgot about Chychrun. Their 2 absolutely best players. Yeah. Arizona will definitely finish dead last. 

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37 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Yeah, they also announced that Chychrun may not actually come back this year, so they're really tanking hard over there in Arizona. I look at Arizona, Seattle, and Philly and they all really really suck. Big time. Those are bad teams. And yet we're holding pace with them as being just as bad. I know we're also missing Petry, Gallagher, Drouin, etc. but I guess we're also deep down a pretty bad team. Allen has masked some of that since he came back, but I think if we played Montembeault the rest of the way we'd finish last.

The Carolina game went according to plan. And we may trade with Philly in the off season re; Petry - I hope we make the Flyers a worse team. The problem we have, is our players are trying with heart and effort - imo can’t say that for the other unmotivated teams. My worry is Price comes back for a few games and steals a number of points. 

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12 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

With Clayton Keller being done for the season, I guess that's going to give Arizona the advantage when it comes to tanking. 

 

3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Yeah, they also announced that Chychrun may not actually come back this year, so they're really tanking hard over there in Arizona. I look at Arizona, Seattle, and Philly and they all really really suck. Big time. Those are bad teams. And yet we're holding pace with them as being just as bad. I know we're also missing Petry, Gallagher, Drouin, etc. but I guess we're also deep down a pretty bad team. Allen has masked some of that since he came back, but I think if we played Montembeault the rest of the way we'd finish last.

May as well add the following..............

Not hearing good things RE: Lawson Crouse. Blocked a shot with his hand, broke a bone, further evaluation on Wednesday. His season could be over.
Crouse has career highs in Gs (20), Pts. (34); and will be a RFA with arbitration rights in July.

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