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2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yup.  Too bad Barron is done for the year too, but I dont think they are too worried about evaluating him. Right now i think the team is looking hard at guys like Edmundson, Savard, Dvorak, Pitlick, Hoffman, Armia, Schueneman, Wideman etc to see if they fit into our future plans, should be extended or resigned or showcased in a trade. 

Yep and if they don't fit they will make the moves to get the guys they feel we do need.

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26.  Ottawa          73     27      40       6      60

27.  Chicago        73     24      38     11      59

28.  New Jersey   73     26      41       6      58

29.  Philadelphia  73     23      39     11      57

30.   Seattle          73      23     44       6     52 

31.  Montreal       73      20     42     11      51

32.   Arizona         73      22     46       5      49

No surprise that Arizona & Seattle both lost.

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9 hours ago, electron58 said:

 

No surprise that Arizona & Seattle both lost.

The only surprise was the Crack up a couple after 2. Shot themselves in the foot with penalties in the 3rd.

Would have been nice to see a 3 pointer in the Yotes game, but Jersey getting 2 was not a bad thing.

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Habs are now sitting at 51 points with 8 games to go. So maximum point tally for the season has fallen to 67. It means that a bottom 9 finish is now statistically guaranteed. Also near-impossible that we would catch Detroit (66pts) or Buffalo (65 pts). We would have to win out and have them each lose all their games just about. So we're still looking at 6 other teams in range of finishing behind us.

Another important aspect to consider is that the Habs are currently last in the league for the first tie-breaker of regulation wins. We have 14 and here are the totals for the other teams right now:

- Arizona 16

- Seattle 20

- Philly 18

- NJ 18

- Chi 15

- Ott 23

We're also far behind Philly and NJ in the 2nd tie-break of ROW, where we have 17, Phi is at 22, and NJ is at 23. All that to say that we'll almost certainly lose the tie-break to each of these teams with the exception of Chicago and Arizona, where it's still up in the air. We are already guaranteed to lose the tie-break to Ottawa now, as we can longer catch them in RW's. So to catch Ottawa, we would have to go at minimum 5-3 down the stretch without their winning a single point.

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Even with fivethirtyeight's web site predictability, looking at Seattle's schedule, they might pick up wins against NJ / Ott / San Jose in their last 9 games - the rest of the Kraken's schedule is tough teams who are unlikely to take nights off

Arizona - these yotes are useless and a total embarrassment to the league - looking at their schedule, they might win at home against Chicago otherwise they play tough teams and I see them mailing it in for the 1st overall pick

NJ Devils - Have 2 home games vs the Dead Things and a home game vs. Barfalo plus away game vs. the Krakken and Ottawa - They have a 7 point lead on us and an easier remaining schedule, so I doubt we catch them

Philly - Have a home and away games vs. Barfalo. A head to head with us on the 21st (4 pointer), an away game vs Chicago and a home vs Ottawa. They have a 6 point lead on us but based on difficulty of schedule, we will likely not catch them but they are the most worrisome. 

We have a tough closing block of remaining games - maybe only the Islanders game tonight or April 21st at home vs. Philly or April 23rd at Ottawa present win opportunities vs. Price stealing a game or 2. 

Summary - I am resolved to the likelihood we finish 30th overall which guarantees a top 5 pick - with any luck we may finish 31st.

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With the loss tonight, Habs can now max out at 65 points with 7 games to go. Buffalo sits at 65 already and is exactly 7 regulation wins, 7 ROW's, and 7 overall wins ahead of us. That means that if we win our last 7 games in regulation and Buffalo loses its last 6 in regulation, we would tie for the first three tie-breakers, after which it would come down to season series, which Buffalo won 3-1. So we officially cannot catch Buffalo barring a very bizarre set of circumstances with multiple teams tying for points, RW's, ROW's, and overall wins. So we are essentially now guaranteed a bottom 7 finish.

Looking past that, Ottawa sits at 62 points but is already guaranteed to win the tie-break over us. So for us to pass them outright, we would need to finish at least 6-1 with their not picking up a single point.

If we go 3-4 or worse, we also cannot catch NJ and can only tie Philly in points but lose the tie-break to them. So a 3-4 finish or worse guarantees us a bottom 3 finish now. The Habs finish out against Was tomorrow, then Min, Phi, at Ott, Bos, at NYR, and Fla. So further to that, if we finish 4-3 but one of our losses is to Philly then we also can't pass them any longer. Our odds here are getting stronger. More and more, it looks like Arizona will just lose out and stay at the bottom, so the most interesting team to watch is Seattle, whereby we need to hope they find a few wins.

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Ottawa in OT right now, meaning they have at least one point and will sit at 63 or more after the game. Montreal, with a loss tonight, could only get to 63 and has already lost the RW tie-break. So we are now guaranteed a bottom 6 finish.

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Ottawa loses in OT, but did enough for it not to matter to us anymore. Only 5 teams left on the watchlist now: Chicago, NJ, Philly, Seattle, and Arizona. NJ and Seattle play each other tonight, so someone gets points there too.

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Just now, BigTed3 said:

Ottawa loses in OT, but did enough for it not to matter to us anymore. Only 5 teams left on the watchlist now: Chicago, NJ, Philly, Seattle, and Arizona. NJ and Seattle play each other tonight, so someone gets points there too.

Hopefully,  Jersey in OT.

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1 minute ago, electron58 said:

Hopefully,  Jersey in OT.

Hopefully Seattle in OT. NJ is already 7 points ahead of us and will almost certainly hold the tie-break on us. We'd have to go 4-2 and not have them win a single point to pass them. They also don't have that tough a schedule. Seattle is far and away the team most likely to finish close to us in the standings, so they're the ones we need to pick up points wherever they can

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3 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Hopefully Seattle in OT. NJ is already 7 points ahead of us and will almost certainly hold the tie-break on us. We'd have to go 4-2 and not have them win a single point to pass them. They also don't have that tough a schedule. Seattle is far and away the team most likely to finish close to us in the standings, so they're the ones we need to pick up points wherever they can

It would be nice, but I like the surer thing. I've already conceded to finishing 30th.

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10 minutes ago, electron58 said:

It would be nice, but I like the surer thing. I've already conceded to finishing 30th.

Again, we'd need to go 4-2 to make NJ relevant to us in any way. We have Minnesota next, and they are fighting for home ice in the 1st round. We then have Philly, who suck as badly as us. But after that a surging Ottawa team on the road. Then Boston fighting for position to avoid a top 2 seed on the 2nd half of a B2B. Then the Rangers in NY as they try to win their division. And lastly Florida, who will probably be resting players. I see Philly and Florida as our two best chances to win games. I think the other ones will be tough ones to win. Ultimately, I think this team will go 3-3 to finish the season. That won't be enough to catch Philly or NJ, but it would likely be enough to finish ahead of Seattle and Arizona. I see almost no hope of falling below the terrible Coyotes, who have big injuries and no easy games left. But Seattle is still in play one way or the other. I see us finishing 30th or 31st. Seattle is vastly important here.

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Here are the remaining schedules for the bottom 5 teams and the magic number (combined number of points won by that team or lost by us to prevent us from catching them):

 

- NJ:  at Sea, at LV, Buf, Car, Det, at Ott, at Car, Det (MN 6)

- Phi: Buf, at Tor, at Mtl, Pit, at Chi, at Wpg, Ott (MN 7)

- Sea: NJ, Ott, Col, at Min, at Dal, at Van, LA, SJ (MN 12)

- Mtl: Min, Phi, at Ott, Bos, at NYR, Fla (N/A)

- Ari: at Cal, Car, Chi, Was, Stl, at Min, at Dal, Nas (MN 15)

 

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59 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Ottawa in OT right now, meaning they have at least one point and will sit at 63 or more after the game. Montreal, with a loss tonight, could only get to 63 and has already lost the RW tie-break. So we are now guaranteed a bottom 6 finish.

So when you say guaranteed bottom 6 finish, you're not counting the possibility of losing the draft lottery twice and falling to 8th? I like to look at the worst case possible, so that I am not disappointed when we lose the draft lottery. So, if we finish 30th, we pick 5th. (worst case scenario) If we retain our standing, then 3rd is great! If we win the draft lottery, then fantastic!!! 

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52 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Again, we'd need to go 4-2 to make NJ relevant to us in any way. We have Minnesota next, and they are fighting for home ice in the 1st round. We then have Philly, who suck as badly as us. But after that a surging Ottawa team on the road. Then Boston fighting for position to avoid a top 2 seed on the 2nd half of a B2B. Then the Rangers in NY as they try to win their division. And lastly Florida, who will probably be resting players. I see Philly and Florida as our two best chances to win games. I think the other ones will be tough ones to win. Ultimately, I think this team will go 3-3 to finish the season. That won't be enough to catch Philly or NJ, but it would likely be enough to finish ahead of Seattle and Arizona. I see almost no hope of falling below the terrible Coyotes, who have big injuries and no easy games left. But Seattle is still in play one way or the other. I see us finishing 30th or 31st. Seattle is vastly important here.

I think we're good for 2 or 3 more points, with a top finish of 54 TP. If Seattle can squeeze out 2 more points (however which way) then we finish below Seattle @ 31st. and a top 4 pick. (Already sounds better than a top 5 pick) Should be an impact player in the top 4!

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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Hopefully Seattle in OT. NJ is already 7 points ahead of us and will almost certainly hold the tie-break on us. We'd have to go 4-2 and not have them win a single point to pass them. They also don't have that tough a schedule. Seattle is far and away the team most likely to finish close to us in the standings, so they're the ones we need to pick up points wherever they can

I agree.  Makes more sense. We got lucky!  Seattle over New Jersey in SO!

26.  Ottawa            75     28      40       7       63

27.  Chicago          75     25      38     11       61

28.  New Jersey    75      26      42       7      59

29.  Philadelphia   75      23      41     11      57

30.   Seattle          74      24     44       6       54 

31.  Montreal       76      20     45     11       51

32.   Arizona         75      22     48       5       49

6 games left for Habs. Maybe, 3 more points.

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Updated schedules and Magic Numbers after the late games (number of points the other team needs to gain or we need to fail to win in order for us to be unable to pass them):

- NJ:  at LV, Buf, Car, Det, at Ott, at Car, Det (MN 5 - but with their almost guaranteed to own the tie-break so in practice it's 4)

- Phi: Buf, at Tor, at Mtl, Pit, at Chi, at Wpg, Ott (MN 7)

- Sea: Ott, Col, at Min, at Dal, at Van, LA, SJ (MN 10)

- Mtl: Min, Phi, at Ott, Bos, at NYR, Fla (N/A)

- Ari: Car, Chi, Was, Stl, at Min, at Dal, Nas (MN 15)

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