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Tank Watch


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45 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

SThe tank is looking good. I anticipate we finish second last. Arizona is probably too terrible to catch.

 

Check the standings . Montreal has just as bad a record . Anything is possible 

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12 minutes ago, maas_art said:

As long as i get extra padding for my drawing hand, i'll do it for free :P

 

 

12 minutes ago, maas_art said:

me standing in front of it would likely have the same effect. haha

As a forum we'd be better off sacrificing Kinot. He just sits around his apartment all day so it would give him something to do.

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1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

Check the standings . Montreal has just as bad a record . Anything is possible 

Of course anything is possible, but consider this:

- Montreal has the 15th toughest strength of schedule remaining statistically. Seattle has the 4th and Arizona the 5th. The Coyotes have Chicago tonight and then after that have 5 teams in the playoff seedings, all of whom are still battling for position. The Habs have struggling Philly (weaker than anyone Arizona plays) and also has non-playoff Ottawa and finishes with an already-secured Florida playing the 2nd half of a B2B on the road. There are more achievable points there for Mtl than Ari.

- Montreal is already two points ahead in the standings so Arizona would need to come up with an extra win than Montreal for us to pass them in the tank.

- Montreal's line-up now is arguably better than the one that has this season's record. Sure, we're down Toffoli and Lehkonen and Chiarot, but we've added back Edmundson (who is better than Chiarot) and Price (who is infinitely better than Montembeault), we have a better coach than we did most of the year, we have Caufield going (which he wasn't for the first half of the season), and we've had more injuries this year than any team in history. Conversely, Arizona is missing its two best players in Keller and Chychrun, so they're easily icing a worse line-up than they did most of the season. If Montreal played the entire season with its current line-up, I don't think they'd be anywhere close to a playoff team but I think they'd be significantly better than their current record just with Price in for Monty. I'd argue this is a 70-72 point team. Conversely, I think Arizona's current line-up to finish the year is a 40-point team.

The Habs might stink the rest of the year but I have a hard time seeing them acquire two fewer points the rest of the way than Arizona. I think we'd have to play 1-4 the rest of the way and hope Arizona beats Chicago tonight then finds a miracle somewhere else in their other 5 games.

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26 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Of course anything is possible, but consider this:

- Montreal has the 15th toughest strength of schedule remaining statistically. Seattle has the 4th and Arizona the 5th. The Coyotes have Chicago tonight and then after that have 5 teams in the playoff seedings, all of whom are still battling for position. The Habs have struggling Philly (weaker than anyone Arizona plays) and also has non-playoff Ottawa and finishes with an already-secured Florida playing the 2nd half of a B2B on the road. There are more achievable points there for Mtl than Ari.

- Montreal is already two points ahead in the standings so Arizona would need to come up with an extra win than Montreal for us to pass them in the tank.

- Montreal's line-up now is arguably better than the one that has this season's record. Sure, we're down Toffoli and Lehkonen and Chiarot, but we've added back Edmundson (who is better than Chiarot) and Price (who is infinitely better than Montembeault), we have a better coach than we did most of the year, we have Caufield going (which he wasn't for the first half of the season), and we've had more injuries this year than any team in history. Conversely, Arizona is missing its two best players in Keller and Chychrun, so they're easily icing a worse line-up than they did most of the season. If Montreal played the entire season with its current line-up, I don't think they'd be anywhere close to a playoff team but I think they'd be significantly better than their current record just with Price in for Monty. I'd argue this is a 70-72 point team. Conversely, I think Arizona's current line-up to finish the year is a 40-point team.

The Habs might stink the rest of the year but I have a hard time seeing them acquire two fewer points the rest of the way than Arizona. I think we'd have to play 1-4 the rest of the way and hope Arizona beats Chicago tonight then finds a miracle somewhere else in their other 5 games.

I see our record as being 1-4 the rest of the way TBH. We likely beat Philly, Ottawa has had our number all year and are not going to take anyone out vs us. NY can still clinch 1st in the Metro. Boston can pass Tampa for 3rd in the Atlantic and Florida can still clinch the presidents trophy so depending on where they stand they might not be resting players either vs us. Any of those 3 teams can still be fighting for their respective clinches when we face them which means we face their A lineup.

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2 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I see our record as being 1-4 the rest of the way TBH. We likely beat Philly, Ottawa has had our number all year and are not going to take anyone out vs us. NY can still clinch 1st in the Metro. Boston can pass Tampa for 3rd in the Atlantic and Florida can still clinch the presidents trophy so depending on where they stand they might not be resting players either vs us. Any of those 3 teams can still be fighting for their respective clinches when we face them which means we face their A lineup.

Would highly doubt the President's trophy will influence Florida's decision to rest players if there are guys with injuries they want to let heal a bit, especially with the game being a B2B on the road. The players care about the Cup and the President's trophy has very little meaning to most of them, from what I've heard from interviews in the past. If it helps their chances in the playoffs, they'll gladly care less about the regular season record. Personally, I think the Habs will pick up 4 points the rest of the way. That means Arizona would need 6 points to pass us in the standings.

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4 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Would highly doubt the President's trophy will influence Florida's decision to rest players if there are guys with injuries they want to let heal a bit, especially with the game being a B2B on the road. The players care about the Cup and the President's trophy has very little meaning to most of them, from what I've heard from interviews in the past. If it helps their chances in the playoffs, they'll gladly care less about the regular season record. Personally, I think the Habs will pick up 4 points the rest of the way. That means Arizona would need 6 points to pass us in the standings.

I disagree I think it has a significant meaning in the playoffs. Winning the presidents trophy guarantees home ice through the entire playoffs. Home ice has a very large influence on the teams pocket book. It works out to like 3 mil or something per playoff game. That is a huge incentive for the team.

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I'm not sure there's too much value predicting the individual games: teams lose games they should win and win games they should lose all the time, although strength of schedule should have some impact overall. This is simplistic, but just anecdotally, it's just really hard to make up ground on teams: making up 5 points in 5 games is extremely unlikely. It could happen, but even when this team was playing so well, they weren't making up a lot of ground.

Not sure if there's anyone modelling this properly, but my gut instinct is we're looking at odds something like:
* 10%: finish 30th or better
* 30%: finish last (it appears Arizona holds tie-breaker over us, so that makes this quite a bit more likely than were it the other way around: just winning one extra game due to luck or whatever wouldn't be shocking)
* 60%: finish 2nd-last

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6 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Of course anything is possible, but consider this:

- Montreal has the 15th toughest strength of schedule remaining statistically. Seattle has the 4th and Arizona the 5th. The Coyotes have Chicago tonight and then after that have 5 teams in the playoff seedings, all of whom are still battling for position. The Habs have struggling Philly (weaker than anyone Arizona plays) and also has non-playoff Ottawa and finishes with an already-secured Florida playing the 2nd half of a B2B on the road.

Florida is still better than Habs, even with rested players. Arizona runs out the season on a losing note. Except for Philly, Habs do the same.

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55 minutes ago, Graeme-1 said:

I'm not sure there's too much value predicting the individual games: teams lose games they should win and win games they should lose all the time, although strength of schedule should have some impact overall. This is simplistic, but just anecdotally, it's just really hard to make up ground on teams: making up 5 points in 5 games is extremely unlikely. It could happen, but even when this team was playing so well, they weren't making up a lot of ground.

Not sure if there's anyone modelling this properly, but my gut instinct is we're looking at odds something like:
* 10%: finish 30th or better
* 30%: finish last (it appears Arizona holds tie-breaker over us, so that makes this quite a bit more likely than were it the other way around: just winning one extra game due to luck or whatever wouldn't be shocking)
* 60%: finish 2nd-last

Your numbers are actually pretty close to being spot-on if you compare them to the model used by sportsclubstats... they simulate outcomes millions of times over to make their predictions and right now they have us at < 1% chance of 28th or 29th, 1% chance of 30th, 61% of 31st, and 38% of 32nd.

The next question is when you look at their data, what's the inflection point between 31st and 32nd? To them, if we get to 54 points, we have a slightly better than 50% chance of finishing 31st. Anything more than that strongly leans to 31st. If we finish on 53 points (ie one more win out of our last 5 games) then they give us a 33% chance of 31st and 67% chance of 32nd. if we go 0-5, they give the Coyotes a 93% chance of winning at least two more points and passing us. So that gives you an idea of what it'll take. The question is thus whether you think the Habs will win 0-2 points the rest of the way or more than 2 points. Personally I think we're more likely to hit more than 2 points. To go 2 or less, I think we'd have to lose outright to Philly in regulation.

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yotes lose but at least gain a point

arizona 5 games left, 50 points.  

Us 5 games left, 51 points.  

Philly 5 games left 57 points.  

Kraken 6 games left 58 points.

I feel like its pretty likely we get 1st or second worst. 

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Guaranteeed a bottom 4 finish. Remaining magic numbers are

- Philly 5 (with a chance to bounce all 5 tonight if we lose in regulation)

- Seattle 3

- Arizona 12

I feel like we lose in regulation after watching what little of the game I have lol. 

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Guaranteeed a bottom 4 finish. Remaining magic numbers are

- Philly 5 (with a chance to bounce all 5 tonight if we lose in regulation)

- Seattle 3

- Arizona 12

Mission accomplished.. Three team race with Seattle hanging on by a thread.

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