Tank Watch

[BigTed3]

3 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Mission accomplished.. Three team race with Seattle hanging on by a thread.

Yup. We can no longer catch Philly by virtue of the fact we can at best max out by tying them at 58 points and they've already won the tie-break against us with 5 more regulation wins than we have right now.

Seattle is 7 points up on us and has already won the tie-break against us too. So the only way we can pass them is if we go 4-0 and they go 0-6. The magic number with them is down to 1 point.

And Arizona remains a point behind us with a game in hand on us, and they're two regulation wins up on us in the tie-break. They're also 4 ROW's up on us in the 2nd tie-break. So for us to win the tie-break against them, we'd have to win three more regulation wins without their getting another regulation win (ie they'd have to win games in OT or SO only). It's thus pretty unlikely that we would end up tied in points and be able to win the tie-break on them. If we won three more regulation games, we'd be up 7 points on them and I don't see them winning 7 of their last 10 points. So for all intents and purposes, Arizona will win the tie-break against us if it comes down to that. I'm thus going to put the magic number here at 9. It means that of the Habs 4 remaining games (8 pts up for grabs) and Arizona's 5 remaining ones (10 pts up for grabs), we need 9 of those 18 to go our way (ie we lose ours or Arizona wins theirs) to finish last.

[BigTed3]

FWIW, The Athletic projects us and Arizona to finish tied at 54 points and 538 projects us to finish tied at 53 points now. Both those scenarios would leave us 32nd by virtue of the lost tie-break. Personally I think picking Zona to win two more games is very optimistic, but that's what they're saying.

[claremont]

2 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, The Athletic projects us and Arizona to finish tied at 54 points and 538 projects us to finish tied at 53 points now. Both those scenarios would leave us 32nd by virtue of the lost tie-break. Personally I think picking Zona to win two more games is very optimistic, but that's what they're saying.

Concur - I look at Arizona’s last 5 games all against tough opponents and I say which 1 or even 2 could they win ? Wash, St. Louis Nashville at home and Dallas and Minny away - some team has to take a night off or the coyotes goalies need some major puck luck 

[campabee82]

24 minutes ago, claremont said:

Concur - I look at Arizona’s last 5 games all against tough opponents and I say which 1 or even 2 could they win ? Wash, St. Louis Nashville at home and Dallas and Minny away - some team has to take a night off or the coyotes goalies need some major puck luck 

Well they did just beat the Av's, Bruins and Leafs so anything is possible

[maas_art]

42 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, The Athletic projects us and Arizona to finish tied at 54 points and 538 projects us to finish tied at 53 points now. Both those scenarios would leave us 32nd by virtue of the lost tie-break. Personally I think picking Zona to win two more games is very optimistic, but that's what they're saying.

im going to go reverse-conspiracy theory now & say we finish 2nd to last & win the lottery so the league can make a big deal about us picking 1st overall in montreal ;)   

(and MB can finally say "this is why we made the John Scott trade" ) 

[electron58]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I'm going to go reverse-conspiracy theory now & say we finish 2nd to last & win the lottery so the league can make a big deal about us picking 1st overall in Montreal ;)   

(and MB can finally say "this is why we made the John Scott trade" ) 

THAT  would be SWEET.

[jennifer_rocket]

10 hours ago, maas_art said:

im going to go reverse-conspiracy theory now & say we finish 2nd to last & win the lottery so the league can make a big deal about us picking 1st overall in montreal ;)   

(and MB can finally say "this is why we made the John Scott trade" ) 

John Scott trade finally panning out!  MB the genius!

[BigTed3]

22 hours ago, maas_art said:

im going to go reverse-conspiracy theory now & say we finish 2nd to last & win the lottery so the league can make a big deal about us picking 1st overall in montreal ;)   

(and MB can finally say "this is why we made the John Scott trade" ) 

 

20 hours ago, electron58 said:

THAT  would be SWEET.

That would, however, cause us to lose one of our two "lottery wins" for the next 5 years and frankly, I think this team will be in the lottery for another two of the next five in all likelihood. The best case scenario is that you finish last, another team jumps from 12-16 up but still leaves you 1st overall, and then you get the first pick without giving up your lottery win... that's the ideal scenario. Moving from 2nd to 1st is a bit of a waste of your lottery win, and keep in mind that in 4 years, 8 teams will be excluded from winning the lottery. So the teams left in the running could have much higher odds of moving up (e.g. imagine being the 10th last team 4 years from now but knowing the teams that finished last, 2nd last, 4th last, 5th last, and 7th last all were ineligible to win. Your odds of winning from the 10 spot would end up being comparable to as if you had finished 2nd or 3rd last instead. Just something to keep in mind that I don't think anyone here has brought up yet as an interesting result of the new system.

[Graeme-1]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

 

That would, however, cause us to lose one of our two "lottery wins" for the next 5 years and frankly, I think this team will be in the lottery for another two of the next five in all likelihood. The best case scenario is that you finish last, another team jumps from 12-16 up but still leaves you 1st overall, and then you get the first pick without giving up your lottery win... that's the ideal scenario. Moving from 2nd to 1st is a bit of a waste of your lottery win, and keep in mind that in 4 years, 8 teams will be excluded from winning the lottery. So the teams left in the running could have much higher odds of moving up (e.g. imagine being the 10th last team 4 years from now but knowing the teams that finished last, 2nd last, 4th last, 5th last, and 7th last all were ineligible to win. Your odds of winning from the 10 spot would end up being comparable to as if you had finished 2nd or 3rd last instead. Just something to keep in mind that I don't think anyone here has brought up yet as an interesting result of the new system.

For sure, winning the lottery is no longer the no-brainier it once was, although with the current system winning more than twice, even being the worst team in the league multiple times, isn't all that likely.

I'm not quite following "keep in mind that in 4 years, 8 teams will be excluded from winning the lottery": wouldn't the most teams being excluded basically be 2-3 excluded, and most likely not even that?

And has it been confirmed that an excluded team is removed from the lottery (increasing everyone else's odds) or they simply can't win, giving the 32nd place team the top pick?

[BigTed3]

8 hours ago, Graeme-1 said:

For sure, winning the lottery is no longer the no-brainier it once was, although with the current system winning more than twice, even being the worst team in the league multiple times, isn't all that likely.

I'm not quite following "keep in mind that in 4 years, 8 teams will be excluded from winning the lottery": wouldn't the most teams being excluded basically be 2-3 excluded, and most likely not even that?

And has it been confirmed that an excluded team is removed from the lottery (increasing everyone else's odds) or they simply can't win, giving the 32nd place team the top pick?

Yeah, I had a brainfart there... you need two wins to be excluded, so in that case, possible that 2-3 teams would be excluded in 4-5 years. My point would still hold though that your odds as a mid-range lottery team could theoretically be much better in a few years. Say perennial bottom-feeders like Arizona and Buffalo both win twice in the next 4 years, then in year 5 finish at the bottom again. The lottery is done by putting in a certain number of chances for each team based on their standings (I think it's something like a 4 number combination, with each combo being allocated to a team and each team having a certain number of possible winning combos based on their ranking). So theoretically, if Arizona was last and had 18.5% of those combos and one won, I think they would just re-draw after that. So a team that had say a 10% of winning in usual circumstances would have a 100/815 chance with Zona's 18.5% odds excluded instead of a 100/1000 chance. In any case, true that the odds of this happening wouldn't be particularly high, but you never know.

[BigTed3]

Officially down to us and Arizona for last.

[H_T_L]

Bottom 2 finish clinched.

[jennifer_rocket]

5 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Bottom 2 finish clinched.

This means we're guaranteed a top four pick, right?

[H_T_L]

Just now, jennifer_rocket said:

This means we're guaranteed a top four pick, right?

Yes.

[BigTed3]

Habs have Bos, at NYR, and Fla to finish off the year.

Arizona is playing Stl tonight in the 2nd half of a B2B for them, then they are at Min, at Dal (B2B again), and home to Nas to finish things out.

For the Habs opponents, Bos still has something to play for. NY plays Carolina first and if Carolina wins, then they clinch the division and NY is locked into the 2 seed. So their interest in our game may come down to what happens on Tuesday first. Florida is already locked into the 1 seed in the division and playing the 2nd half of a B2B on the road, so may be resting players.

Stl and Min are still battling for home ice in their upcoming first-round series. Dallas is battling to get into the playoffs, and Nashville may still be fighting for playoffs/seeding in the Yotes' last game, although it's possible they'll be locked in somewhere by then.

All that to say that the Habs have better opponents on paper, but circumstances may dictate that the Coyotes will have a tougher time finding wins because their opponents have a lot to play for and the Habs' opponents may not.

 

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Officially down to us and Arizona for last.

i still have this sneaking suspicion we will get the 2nd overall pick and Arizona will choose Slafkovsky - totally not based on anything specific but i get the sense Wright is going to be our pick, one way or the other.

That said, I just hope we dont end up picking 3rd.  Very bad luck there for us of late  

[electron58]

Now tied with Arizona with 51 points.

[electron58]

16 minutes ago, electron58 said:

Now tied with Arizona with 51 points.

Both teams have 3 games left.

[claremont]

1 hour ago, electron58 said:

Now tied with Arizona with 51 points.

Binnington lets in some softies for Arizona’s point - can our  organization lose all 3 remaining games? Can the yotes beat Nashville in their last remaining game? 

[H_T_L]

That was a big comeback point by the Yotes. They're not rolling over it seems.

[H_T_L]

We now control our draft position. Lose the last 3 (more then possible) and we finish 32nd.

If the Yotes manage another upset win, it would put us in the position of needing another win and a loser point to pass them.

If they get a loser point,,, then we would need another win.

[BigTed3]

8 hours ago, maas_art said:

i still have this sneaking suspicion we will get the 2nd overall pick and Arizona will choose Slafkovsky - totally not based on anything specific but i get the sense Wright is going to be our pick, one way or the other.

That said, I just hope we dont end up picking 3rd.  Very bad luck there for us of late  

Ultimately the lottery is of greater importance than the final standings right now. Whether we finish first or second last, the odds are still greater than anything that the teams there drop two spots. Just look at why the lottery rules were changed in the first place this year: because the last-place team got knocked down to 4th pick 3 times in the past 5 years. It's the most likely outcome.

As for who the Coyotes would pick, I think they'd go with a center, be it Wright or Cooley. Their organization depth is terrible everywhere, and they have a need for any of the top picks, but they also have a ton of low 1st's and high 2nd's coming their way, and I think they'll believe they can re-stock their D and wing with those choices more easily. They took a flier on Hayton when we chose JK and they added McBain, but they have no 1C and no 1D if they trade Chychrun. I have a hard time seeing an organization with no center and D strength opting to build up the wing spot first, and they do have Guenther and Keller on the wing already.

As far as tiers go, I think Wright has separated himself from the pack a bit. After that, I think Cooley, Nemec, Slafkovsky, Jiricek, and Savoie are all very close in terms of their ceilings. I do think Cooley gets added value as the next most likely choice by virtue of his position and Nemec and Jiricek are just behind him in that regard. Slafkovksy as a winger and Savoie by virtue of the questions about whether he's a center or winger, are guys you really want to be sure are superior to the others if you're going to pick them at 2 or 3. The bottom line for me is that if you hit on an elite center or D man, they're going to provide more value than if you hit on a winger (e.g. Suzuki, Markov, or Subban have added more value to our line-up than Pacioretty or Gallagher did).

[claremont]

6 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

As far as tiers go, I think Wright has separated himself from the pack a bit. After that, I think Cooley, Nemec, Slafkovsky, Jiricek, and Savoie are all very close in terms of their ceilings. I do think Cooley gets added value as the next most likely choice by virtue of his position and Nemec and Jiricek are just behind him in that regard. Slafkovksy as a winger and Savoie by virtue of the questions about whether he's a center or winger, are guys you really want to be sure are superior to the others if you're going to pick them at 2 or 3. The bottom line for me is that if you hit on an elite center or D man, they're going to provide more value than if you hit on a winger (e.g. Suzuki, Markov, or Subban have added more value to our line-up than Pacioretty or Gallagher did).

If the scouting assessments have questions about Savoie as perhaps a better winger than a Centre, then based on height and weight considerations they should have the exact same thoughts about Cooley - their height and weight are so similar but that’s only a small part of the equation 
Vision - Cooley has had the benefit of playing with top rated wingers who put themselves in better positioning. 
Scoring - they’re about equal goal scorers and speed wise Savoie seems to have the edge 

5 on 5 - from what I read that seems to favor Cooley as Savoie scores a lot with open ice power plays. I’m not sure a team is going to go wrong with picking either of them TBH 

if we are top 4 I’ll trust our scouting staff if we don’t get Wright, to pick any one of Savoie, Slafkovsky (it’s very hard to ignore that size with skills combination),  Nemec or Cooley - after that, I think the rest move to Tier 2 

 

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

If the scouting assessments have questions about Savoie as perhaps a better winger than a Centre, then based on height and weight considerations they should have the exact same thoughts about Cooley - their height and weight are so similar but that’s only a small part of the equation 
Vision - Cooley has had the benefit of playing with top rated wingers who put themselves in better positioning. 
Scoring - they’re about equal goal scorers and speed wise Savoie seems to have the edge 

5 on 5 - from what I read that seems to favor Cooley as Savoie scores a lot with open ice power plays. I’m not sure a team is going to go wrong with picking either of them TBH 

if we are top 4 I’ll trust our scouting staff if we don’t get Wright, to pick any one of Savoie, Slafkovsky (it’s very hard to ignore that size with skills combination),  Nemec or Cooley - after that, I think the rest move to Tier 2 

 

Mostly agreed with your tier 2. I think Jiricek has shown he's come back nicely from his injury and is in the conversation for top 5, as is Frank Nazar. He's one guy who has the potential to challenge the top guys. Wonder if he could be like a Matt Duchene to Wright being John Tavares in the 2009 draft, a guy who doesn't quite get all the hype of the top player(s) but should be in the mix too. It's really tight in that 2-7 group for me. At present, I have them ranked

2. Cooley

3. Nemec

4. Slafkovsky

5. Savoie

6. Jiricek

7. Nazar

.. after that there's a bit more of a drop-off down to Kemell and Yurov and others.

[BigTed3]

538 now has us projected to finish on 52 points and last, right behind Arizona's projected 53. It's going to be very very close. We've got NY without Carey but with their playing the 2ndhalf of a B2B coming off a high-stakes game against Carolina for the division. If the Rangers lose that game, they're locked into the 2 seed. If they win it, they may be spent emotionally. And then Florida in our finale with the Cats on the 2nd half of a B2B too. Those are two games we may have some amount of advantage in that's not measured by the standings. Conversely, Arizona's easiest game will be when they're playing the 2nd half of a B2B.