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Well bottom line for me is that if Hagel is worth two 1st's plus, then Lehkonen is worth at least a 1st and a top prospect. Hagel is younger by 3 years but has much less experience. He's put together only one solid season thus far. Lehkonen is better defensively. Hagel's contract this year is better though Montreal can retain salary, but Lehkonen is likely to be significantly more expensive for the next two years if re-signed. I think Lehkonen's value is lower than Hagel's for that reason, but a team can't just say here's a 1st and a mid-level prospect after seeing what Hagel, Jarnkok, and Chiarot have gone for recently. Lehkonen is significantly more valuable than the latter two and has some advantages over Hagel too, even though his contract situation makes him slightly less valuable as a trade asset for a playoff team.

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8 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Well bottom line for me is that if Hagel is worth two 1st's plus, then Lehkonen is worth at least a 1st and a top prospect. Hagel is younger by 3 years but has much less experience. He's put together only one solid season thus far. Lehkonen is better defensively. Hagel's contract this year is better though Montreal can retain salary, but Lehkonen is likely to be significantly more expensive for the next two years if re-signed. I think Lehkonen's value is lower than Hagel's for that reason, but a team can't just say here's a 1st and a mid-level prospect after seeing what Hagel, Jarnkok, and Chiarot have gone for recently. Lehkonen is significantly more valuable than the latter two and has some advantages over Hagel too, even though his contract situation makes him slightly less valuable as a trade asset for a playoff team.

You might be overvaluing Lehkonen and here's my reservations .

1) Hagel was a pretty prolific scorer in junior and has had a fairly consistent upward trajectory except maybe for his 2020-21 season where maybe he was 4th line - did not get a lot of ice time?  Lehks has never been met that same degree of scoring proficiency and his ceiling is not near Hagel's with that 3 year age difference. They are simply different type of players.

2) Hagel is locked in for $1.5M for another 2 years of potential. Lehks is going to cost a team $3M or more - $1.5M-$2M of cap savings for 2 years is value in Hagel's favour. 

I would suggest that if we can get a first round pick and a top prospect that would be extremely good  for Lehks. I think it's closer to one or the other plus a 2nd round pick 

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4 minutes ago, claremont said:

You might be overvaluing Lehkonen and here's my reservations .

1) Hagel was a pretty prolific scorer in junior and has had a fairly consistent upward trajectory except maybe for his 2020-21 season where maybe he was 4th line - did not get a lot of ice time?  Lehks has never been met that same degree of scoring proficiency and his ceiling is not near Hagel's with that 3 year age difference. They are simply different type of players.

2) Hagel is locked in for $1.5M for another 2 years of potential. Lehks is going to cost a team $3M or more - $1.5M-$2M of cap savings for 2 years is value in Hagel's favour. 

I would suggest that if we can get a first round pick and a top prospect that would be extremely good  for Lehks. I think it's closer to one or the other plus a 2nd round pick 

The ceveat here is that the acquiring club can elect arbitration as well on Lehky since he is an RFA so still can come in around 2.5-2.75 for another year

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39 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Well bottom line for me is that if Hagel is worth two 1st's plus, then Lehkonen is worth at least a 1st and a top prospect. Hagel is younger by 3 years but has much less experience. He's put together only one solid season thus far. Lehkonen is better defensively. Hagel's contract this year is better though Montreal can retain salary, but Lehkonen is likely to be significantly more expensive for the next two years if re-signed. I think Lehkonen's value is lower than Hagel's for that reason, but a team can't just say here's a 1st and a mid-level prospect after seeing what Hagel, Jarnkok, and Chiarot have gone for recently. Lehkonen is significantly more valuable than the latter two and has some advantages over Hagel too, even though his contract situation makes him slightly less valuable as a trade asset for a playoff team.

Agreed. Even a 1st and a B prospect would suffice, for me. But of course, considering what’s been going around, I think Lehk’s should fetch us a nice return!

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

You might be overvaluing Lehkonen and here's my reservations .

1) Hagel was a pretty prolific scorer in junior and has had a fairly consistent upward trajectory except maybe for his 2020-21 season where maybe he was 4th line - did not get a lot of ice time?  Lehks has never been met that same degree of scoring proficiency and his ceiling is not near Hagel's with that 3 year age difference. They are simply different type of players.

2) Hagel is locked in for $1.5M for another 2 years of potential. Lehks is going to cost a team $3M or more - $1.5M-$2M of cap savings for 2 years is value in Hagel's favour. 

I would suggest that if we can get a first round pick and a top prospect that would be extremely good  for Lehks. I think it's closer to one or the other plus a 2nd round pick 

I agree Hagel has more value, but I don't think Lehkonen is that far behind, and a lot of teams have shown interest in him. My counterpoints would be

1. He's an RFA, so Habs are under no obligation to trade him. Not like a UFA where if you don't trade the guy you risk losing him for nothing. Habs can demand their price or just not trade him.

2. In that regard, what's more valuable to the Habs? One late 1st rounder or Lehkonen? The late first has maybe a 50-50 chance of being a regular NHLer and less than 50% chance of being s good as Lehkonen. The advantages to the pick are that you have a small chance of hitting a homerun and you get cost control for longer. But in itself, that may not be enough. I think there has to be a 2nd part to that deal that's of quality, a 2nd piece that also has a 50-50 chance of becoming an NHLer. The team getting Lehkonen would pay more but they'd be getting a sure thing during their window when they're a challenger for a Cup. If we were true contenders this year or next, I wouldn't hesitate to sign and keep him. But if you're the Habs, you don't trade a guy you have who is still going to be in his prime for several years in exchange for a 40% chance of getting the same quality player, a 50% chance of ending up with a nobody, and a 10% chance that it's a better player. You need more incentive, and other teams will know this too.

3. Lehkonen played in a men's league before coming over to Canada. So really hard to say Hagel did well in junior and that this should count for more. Hagel only really did well in junior in his draft +1, +2, and +3 years as an overager, and he was fairly ordinary in his first year of junior, hence why he was a 6th-round draft choice. He also never signed with the team that drafted him. So I'm not sure Hagel's pedigree was really all that impressive, and at the NHL level, as I said, he's had this one breakout season and that's it.

4. Lehkonen is a better defensive player. He's known for that. He gets tougher match-ups, tougher zone starts, and has way better possession metric than Hagel (who actually has really bad advanced metrics).

5. Lehkonen actually has better production at 5v5. Lehkonen is one of the top players in the league at 5v5 points per ice time, notching 2.21 per 60 minutes. Hagel? He's at 2.07. Even their absolute points at 5v5 are close (Lehkonen at 24 and Hagel at 25, with Hagel having had an extra 73 minutes of ice time). Hagel has 6 PP points vs. Lehkonen's 1 but he's also had 3 times as much PP ice time as Lehkonen. So not sure we can say Lehkonen has less scoring proficiency, he's actually just had less equivalent ice time to score, but his production at 5v5 has been superior to Hagel's.

So tale of the tape for me here is that Lehkonen is actually pretty clearly the better player right now. I think he's more valuable to a team's playoff run this year. And since Chicago didn't retain any money, Lehkonen can actually come in cheaper for this one year than Hagel does. The two major downsides to Lehkonen are that he'll pass prime sooner as he's 3 years older and that you lose cost control sooner, hence why I think Hagel is a bit more valuable as a trade asset. But I think teams that are going for it this year will actually get more value from Lehkonen for this run, so I don't think their overall values are that different whereby you can say one is worth two 1st's and two other players and the other is only worth one good asset. I don't mind if we also have to throw in mid-level picks, but I think this and the Jarnkok trade clearly set a standard of a seller's market with a high return. For there to be value in trading Lehkonen, it's a 1st rounder a a good prospect for me. If we're talking NYR, for example, then it would be Lundqvist and a 1st or Kravtsov and a 1st that I'd be asking for, for example.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Well bottom line for me is that if Hagel is worth two 1st's plus, then Lehkonen is worth at least a 1st and a top prospect. Hagel is younger by 3 years but has much less experience. He's put together only one solid season thus far. Lehkonen is better defensively. Hagel's contract this year is better though Montreal can retain salary, but Lehkonen is likely to be significantly more expensive for the next two years if re-signed. I think Lehkonen's value is lower than Hagel's for that reason, but a team can't just say here's a 1st and a mid-level prospect after seeing what Hagel, Jarnkok, and Chiarot have gone for recently. Lehkonen is significantly more valuable than the latter two and has some advantages over Hagel too, even though his contract situation makes him slightly less valuable as a trade asset for a playoff team.

Id say this is a pretty fair assessment.  I think its interesting that TB gave up 2 firsts (Which are likely late late firsts) and took back two 4ths... makes you wonder if they feel like a late first (which is probably close to Chicago's 2nd tbh) is a crapshoot anyway, so just replace it with a 4th rounder.   Maybe they trust their scouts to get them some late round steals. And in fairness, the lightning has dont better than average with 3rd to 5th round picks. Point was a 3rd rounder, Palat was a 7th rounder, Kucherov was a late 2nd rounder, Paquette was a 4th rounder, Cirelli was a 3rd, Joseph a 4th etc.  

I think if Hughes gets offered a 1st and another quality prospect, he takes that deal. Otherwise I could see him keeping Lehkonen & either keeping him for a year or two, or trading him in the summer or next year. 

 

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48 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Id say this is a pretty fair assessment.  I think its interesting that TB gave up 2 firsts (Which are likely late late firsts) and took back two 4ths... makes you wonder if they feel like a late first (which is probably close to Chicago's 2nd tbh) is a crapshoot anyway, so just replace it with a 4th rounder.   Maybe they trust their scouts to get them some late round steals. And in fairness, the lightning has dont better than average with 3rd to 5th round picks. Point was a 3rd rounder, Palat was a 7th rounder, Kucherov was a late 2nd rounder, Paquette was a 4th rounder, Cirelli was a 3rd, Joseph a 4th etc.  

I think if Hughes gets offered a 1st and another quality prospect, he takes that deal. Otherwise I could see him keeping Lehkonen & either keeping him for a year or two, or trading him in the summer or next year. 

 

I've seen that theorizing elsewhere as well, that TB sees picks as picks but doesn't view late 1st's as being as valuable as other teams do. The caveats to this are fairly obvious:

- Late 1st's statistically have a higher chance of becoming NHLers than 2nd's/3rd's/4th's sequentially. The chances of a late 1st becoming a regular NHLer are probably about 50%. The chance of a 4th rounder becoming one are under 10%. That's a pretty big drop-off. Yes, you can certainly hit a homerun lower down, but that doesn't make those picks as valuable.

- The bigger issue here is that these aren't immediate 1st's. These are 2023 and 2024 1st's, with the possibility they get pushed to 2025 or even 2026. Who's to say TB will be as strong in 2024? In two years, Stamkos will be 34 and he's already had trouble staying healthy so far. Same story for Kucherov, who'll be 30. Hedman will be 33. McDonagh will be 34 and a serious saddle to the cap situation. They'll still have Point, Sergachev, and Cirelli in their prime, but who's coming up in the system to help them get better over the next two years? They have exactly one of their own 1st round draft choices from the past 9 drafts still in their own organization and no 1st rounders left to show from the past 4 drafts and nothing coming in the next 3 either. I wonder if it'll be tougher sledding than some believe in a couple of years. Will they still be good? Sure. But will they be a top team in the East? Not as certain about that. Florida looks strong. Toronto will probably still be relevant for the next couple of seasons. Ottawa and Detroit are coming on strong, and the Habs will be better in two years too. I don't think there are going to be as many gimme wins for TB in their own division and I don't think they're going to be a shoe-in to win the division or even make the playoffs in two years. So for all we know, they might end up giving up a lottery pick or two from this deal, and that's not nothing for an organization with a bare cupboard. I think Brisebois ultimately realizes he won't be able to sustain the organization's success long-term, but he sees a window now where he can maximize his current core's chances at winning another Cup, so he's gone all in, something Bergevin was always afraid to do. For me, this isn't about TB ignoring the value of those 1st's, it's them saying they have a strong window now and they'd rather take a shot at another Cup than be 2nd-best now and mediocre in a few years.

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5 hours ago, maas_art said:

yeah i think age & contract status go a long way for Hagel.  He's still on an upward trajectory. And while i think its entirely possible Lehkonen could still have his "best season ever" i think we have a pretty clear idea of what his ceiling is.

Im actually really surprised chicago let a guy like Hagel go - he's young enough to be with them for some time... 

Hagel seems like the kind of young player you want for a rebuild. Chicago is going for the tank. 

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37 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

Leafs pick up Giardano from the Crack.

They're going to have to find a goalie, and actually get those forwards to back check, or else they're going nowhere. 

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6 minutes ago, claremont said:

Dermott to Vancouver for a 3rd rounder - I think Vancouver got a steal. Kulak is easily worth a 2nd rounder by that comparison

Possibly, although Dermott still has a year on his deal and Kulak is UFA

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28 minutes ago, kinot-2 said:

They're going to have to find a goalie, and actually get those forwards to back check, or else they're going nowhere. 

Well they did just pick up a goalie (Harri Sateri) whom i'm sure will be a Vezina finalist shortly.:rolleyes:

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One interesting thing is that the arms race in our division has prompted 4 teams to go all in essentially. Florida, TB, Bos, and Tor have all traded significant draft capital over the next few years to make a run this season, and of course the majority won't have playoff success. It'll hurt all of them 5 years from now, so if the Habs stick to the plan, there's a reasonable chance that they'll be up there with Detroit and Ottawa (if their cheap owner doesn't sell assets on them first) to battle for the division.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

One interesting thing is that the arms race in our division has prompted 4 teams to go all in essentially. Florida, TB, Bos, and Tor have all traded significant draft capital over the next few years to make a run this season, and of course the majority won't have playoff success. It'll hurt all of them 5 years from now, so if the Habs stick to the plan, there's a reasonable chance that they'll be up there with Detroit and Ottawa (if their cheap owner doesn't sell assets on them first) to battle for the division.

Hopefully we don't have to wait 5 years!

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56 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

One interesting thing is that the arms race in our division has prompted 4 teams to go all in essentially. Florida, TB, Bos, and Tor have all traded significant draft capital over the next few years to make a run this season, and of course the majority won't have playoff success. It'll hurt all of them 5 years from now, so if the Habs stick to the plan, there's a reasonable chance that they'll be up there with Detroit and Ottawa (if their cheap owner doesn't sell assets on them first) to battle for the division.

Florida - I’m shocked that they gave up three successive first round picks and two of their next 3 2nd rounders. They have to really believe in that core of Barkov, Huberdeau, Eckblad and Bobrovsky who have really only accomplished a strong trajectory this year. Agree there could be some dead years after their window. 
Toronto - they have quite a young core so I understand effectively giving up on the 2022 draft with only a first a mid 3rd and a 7th - it’s do or die time as the brand will really suffer if they likely fail on going deep in the playoffs this year. They can’t take on many players with term as they are in cap hell 8.5M next year with  replacing 9 players. Looks like a tough fail as goaltending is extremely weak. Changes next year but I see Toronto still regular season strong for next 3 years

Boston - aging core Bergeron on the downhill side if he resigns. I see them still competing for the next 4 years with Core of Marchand, Pasternak, Coyle, Hall, MCAvoy, Carlo, Lindholm and Ullmark

Tampa Bay - only has a 1st for 2022 and a 2nd in 2024 for the next 3 years. Really banking on their core of kucherov, Stamkos, Cirelli  (RFA) , Point, Hedman, Sergachev (RFA), Vasilevsky and even MCDonagh

The analysis supports the theory that if you have a good young stable locked up core, you don’t need many top  draft picks to replenish it. The problem is that injuries are part of the game and if even one of your core has a fall off (Tavares, Marchand/Hall, McDonagh) you have little in your future pipeline 

I see Detroit not mortgaging their future and will be tough in several years. Boston should continue being up there. Tampa cap strapped and I believe Toronto and Florida will likely crash. 

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