NHL 2022 Draft

[BigTed3]

Wright is likely the safe pick in the top 10. He'll almost certainly be a 10-year NHLer. He'll play in someone's top 9 and likely top 6. Personally, I feel like he's more similar to a player like Matt Duchene than he is to Patrice Bergeron, but anything's possible. That said, I still wonder if we shouldn't swing a little higher and the guy I am still thinking about is Savoie. I'd encourage anyone who can to watch this kid play. I've talked over the years about guys I like in certain drafts as potential steals of the draft... guys with skill who have the opportunity to be homeruns. That list of "my guys" has included players like Galchenyuk, Trevor Zegras, Matt Barzal, Tim Stutzle, Seth Jarvis, Seth Jones, Bowen Byram, and Zach Werenski are guys that I just really liked coming out of their respective draft years. Not all hits, but those are players where I thought the teams getting them would be really happy with their choices, especially at the spots some of those guys were chosen. Savoie really reminds me of what Barzal brought to the table and say what you want but I'd personally rather have Barzal than Duchene in today's NHL. Both great adds in general, but I find it hard to turn down the skill level of a Barzal, even if Wright is a more complete player than Savoie. In general, it's a hard decision to make and I don't think it's as clearcut that Wright should be #1. Cooley, Kemell, and Nemec are also all intriguing to me as prospects and could be good picks in the top 5.

[claremont]

On 1/13/2022 at 7:39 PM, BigTed3 said:

Wright is likely the safe pick in the top 10. He'll almost certainly be a 10-year NHLer. He'll play in someone's top 9 and likely top 6. Personally, I feel like he's more similar to a player like Matt Duchene than he is to Patrice Bergeron, but anything's possible. That said, I still wonder if we shouldn't swing a little higher and the guy I am still thinking about is Savoie. I'd encourage anyone who can to watch this kid play. I've talked over the years about guys I like in certain drafts as potential steals of the draft... guys with skill who have the opportunity to be homeruns. That list of "my guys" has included players like Galchenyuk, Trevor Zegras, Matt Barzal, Tim Stutzle, Seth Jarvis, Seth Jones, Bowen Byram, and Zach Werenski are guys that I just really liked coming out of their respective draft years. Not all hits, but those are players where I thought the teams getting them would be really happy with their choices, especially at the spots some of those guys were chosen. Savoie really reminds me of what Barzal brought to the table and say what you want but I'd personally rather have Barzal than Duchene in today's NHL. Both great adds in general, but I find it hard to turn down the skill level of a Barzal, even if Wright is a more complete player than Savoie. In general, it's a hard decision to make and I don't think it's as clearcut that Wright should be #1. Cooley, Kemell, and Nemec are also all intriguing to me as prospects and could be good picks in the top 5.

Agree but I will add some additional flavour on Savoie over Cooley 

1) if you look on most draft boards the following players in the first round come from the USNTDP- Cooley,Nazar, Chesley, McGroarty, Howard, Gauthier, Snuggerud, if that program is so good, why is that team DEAD last in the USHL - strictly youth? 
2) I’ve said this before - most of the elite centres are 6ft plus - both Savoie 5-9 or 5-10 and Cooley at 5-11 are on the small side -Sidney is the exception at 5-11 200 lbs of legs. Small centres have the added pressure of needing top skating, speed and edges, vision, playmaking and a shot. Savoie may have this 

3) looking at the comparables both Savoie and Cooley played in the USHL last year and both were point per game players - both Savoie with Dubuque and Cooley with usntdp - both of their teams did not make the playoffs (means they are fits for the Habs - ha!) . Savoie had an edge in goal scoring. This year Savoie plays on a rather stacked WHL Winnipeg team and opted out of the ushl. The leadership edge goes to Savoie - Cooley leadership has done squat for his team 

4) cooley made his national junior team. Savoie was passed over on a very deep competitive cdn team - not very meaningful on a comparison- Cooley is 5 months younger 

I’ll take Savoie over Cooley and I’ll watch to see whether Lambert rebounds. Kemell for me is top 3 at this point. 

[AH64]

Cooley has been looking real good. its going to be a tough spot to draft even at number 1

[claremont]

11 hours ago, AH64 said:

Cooley has been looking real good. its going to be a tough spot to draft even at number 1

So why is he not leading the usntdp team with all that supposed talent (see all their players projected in the top 32)  out of dead last in the ushl ? The ushl is a college development program - Cooley will be playing a minimum of 2 years in college. Cooley is playing against inferior competition! 

[CaptWelly]

8 hours ago, claremont said:

So why is he not leading the usntdp team with all that supposed talent (see all their players projected in the top 32)  out of dead last in the ushl ? The ushl is a college development program - Cooley will be playing a minimum of 2 years in college. Cooley is playing against inferior competition! 

Yes a lot of players end up going to college. That said going to college for a couple of years is great. They play against men and get great conditioning. I'd much rather see a drafted player go to college then back to the Q or OHL where they play against kids. 

[claremont]

15 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

Yes a lot of players end up going to college. That said going to college for a couple of years is great. They play against men and get great conditioning. I'd much rather see a drafted player go to college then back to the Q or OHL where they play against kids. 

Interesting debate is whether the top ohl Q or WHL teams would dust the us college teams - years past suggest certainly as the cdn juniors have historically come from these leagues and dominated the Xmas tournament but no question the gap has narrowed. The cdn junior leagues only have their gate revenue. The USA colleges have far more $ beyond gate revenue that reaches to Alumni donations and student subsidies - only a matter of time. I believe the junior leagues here in Canada - the top teams like London, Kitchener, Winnipeg, Regina, Remparts - I’d suggest they have “great conditioning”

if you seriously want to talk about kids leagues, the USHL is exactly that. When is the last time a drafted 18 year old based on his impressive stats, from the USHL is returned to the USHL for more development? It doesn’t happen - they are told to go to college where most struggle. I guess Sasha Pastujov drafted 66th overall 2020 didn’t have grades to get in - he’s in the ohl. College - men? 1st year college is 19, most go for 2 years so they are 20. If they’re competing against men that are 21, 22 3rd and 4th year players then most of those  juniors and seniors are not going to make the grade (exceptions the Jordan Harris types that are committed to school)

 

 

[CaptWelly]

3 hours ago, claremont said:

Interesting debate is whether the top ohl Q or WHL teams would dust the us college teams - years past suggest certainly as the cdn juniors have historically come from these leagues and dominated the Xmas tournament but no question the gap has narrowed. The cdn junior leagues only have their gate revenue. The USA colleges have far more $ beyond gate revenue that reaches to Alumni donations and student subsidies - only a matter of time. I believe the junior leagues here in Canada - the top teams like London, Kitchener, Winnipeg, Regina, Remparts - I’d suggest they have “great conditioning”

if you seriously want to talk about kids leagues, the USHL is exactly that. When is the last time a drafted 18 year old based on his impressive stats, from the USHL is returned to the USHL for more development? It doesn’t happen - they are told to go to college where most struggle. I guess Sasha Pastujov drafted 66th overall 2020 didn’t have grades to get in - he’s in the ohl. College - men? 1st year college is 19, most go for 2 years so they are 20. If they’re competing against men that are 21, 22 3rd and 4th year players then most of those  juniors and seniors are not going to make the grade (exceptions the Jordan Harris types that are committed to school)

 

 

Sure so many times you hear they send them back to junior to dominate , well when they play 15 & 16 year olds at 19-20 I surely hope so! 

[AH64]

On 1/19/2022 at 7:31 AM, claremont said:

So why is he not leading the usntdp team with all that supposed talent (see all their players projected in the top 32)  out of dead last in the ushl ? The ushl is a college development program - Cooley will be playing a minimum of 2 years in college. Cooley is playing against inferior competition! 

He has only played 10 games so far this year.

[maas_art]

On 1/13/2022 at 4:39 PM, BigTed3 said:

Wright is likely the safe pick in the top 10. He'll almost certainly be a 10-year NHLer. He'll play in someone's top 9 and likely top 6. Personally, I feel like he's more similar to a player like Matt Duchene than he is to Patrice Bergeron, but anything's possible. That said, I still wonder if we shouldn't swing a little higher and the guy I am still thinking about is Savoie. I'd encourage anyone who can to watch this kid play. I've talked over the years about guys I like in certain drafts as potential steals of the draft... guys with skill who have the opportunity to be homeruns. That list of "my guys" has included players like Galchenyuk, Trevor Zegras, Matt Barzal, Tim Stutzle, Seth Jarvis, Seth Jones, Bowen Byram, and Zach Werenski are guys that I just really liked coming out of their respective draft years. Not all hits, but those are players where I thought the teams getting them would be really happy with their choices, especially at the spots some of those guys were chosen. Savoie really reminds me of what Barzal brought to the table and say what you want but I'd personally rather have Barzal than Duchene in today's NHL. Both great adds in general, but I find it hard to turn down the skill level of a Barzal, even if Wright is a more complete player than Savoie. In general, it's a hard decision to make and I don't think it's as clearcut that Wright should be #1. Cooley, Kemell, and Nemec are also all intriguing to me as prospects and could be good picks in the top 5.

I actually feel like we're not likely to get 1OA.  I have a suspicion we will start winning some games here & assume that will mean more like a #3-5 pick than 1-2.   

That said, I agree with everything you've said. And if the pick is 3OA maybe you take the riskier impact player.  If we get 10A though I think you HAVE to go safe.   

If Wright ends up as a Matt Duchene, great.  Like you, id rather have Barzal than Duchene but Id rather have a (nearly) guaranteed Duchene than a (possible) Barzal with that high of a pick. 

 Suzuki-Wright-Dvorak-Poehling-Evans-Pitlick etc.... thats a centre group we can work with.  Buf if we take a guy like Savoie & he flames out?   Then our centre depth is basically what it is today. Not great. 

[H_T_L]

There are some cracks developing in the Wright sweepstakes. Based on what i saw of him in the few Junior championship games he played in just recently,,, i too have concerns.

Shane Wright NHL Draft Kingston Frontenacs Bob McKenzie - TSN.ca

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

There are some cracks developing in the Wright sweepstakes. Based on what i saw of him in the few Junior championship games he played in just recently,,, i too have concerns.

Shane Wright NHL Draft Kingston Frontenacs Bob McKenzie - TSN.ca

Yeah.  

"He went into this season being projected as a bona fide No. 1 NHL centre, though many scouts have since downgraded that projection to no better than a No. 2 NHL centre."  "He’s going to be a second-line centre in the NHL. He’ll be reliable and coaches will love his work ethic, tools and hockey sense.” 

 

 

A #2 NHL centre is nothing to sneeze at but at 1st OA?   Not great. 

Whats interesting in that article is that if Wright does fall, no one seems to know who is supposed to got 1-10.  Like you may have 5th overall & get the guy you would have taken 1st.  Crazy. 

 

[BigTed3]

3 hours ago, maas_art said:

I actually feel like we're not likely to get 1OA.  I have a suspicion we will start winning some games here & assume that will mean more like a #3-5 pick than 1-2.   

That said, I agree with everything you've said. And if the pick is 3OA maybe you take the riskier impact player.  If we get 10A though I think you HAVE to go safe.   

If Wright ends up as a Matt Duchene, great.  Like you, id rather have Barzal than Duchene but Id rather have a (nearly) guaranteed Duchene than a (possible) Barzal with that high of a pick. 

 Suzuki-Wright-Dvorak-Poehling-Evans-Pitlick etc.... thats a centre group we can work with.  Buf if we take a guy like Savoie & he flames out?   Then our centre depth is basically what it is today. Not great. 

I know the scouts love Wright, so I don't want to discount the opinions of people who watch a lot more of the prospects than I do. He definitely has great vision and strong positional play and skill with the puck. But as some of the reports have said, he doesn't have a particular skill that blows you away. He isn't blazingly fast, he doesn't have the quickest release on his shot, he isn't a guy who dazzles with his moves. He's more just a solid all-around hockey player. Good shot, good passing skill, good smarts. So it's a virtual lock that he'll be an NHLer and he has a reasonable shot at being a top 6 player, but I don't know that any player is a guarantee. I'd say Duchene is best-case scenario for Wright and Barzal is probably best-case scenario for Savoie. But Wright could also be another Tomas Plekanec as well - a serviceable, smart, skilled 2nd line center who isn't really elite.

My thought about choosing a Savoie (or even a Cooley) over Wright is that we already have Suzuki here. Suzuki is, like Wright, a savvy player with good all-around skill, but is he a game-changing talent? Not quite. He hasn't been able to dominate for long stretches, he hasn't been able to elevate linemates consistently, and he hasn't been able to carry a powerplay. So maybe what we need is not another player with that type of hardworking, smart, all-around good but not great skillset but a guy who maybe isn't quite as savvy but has that elite skill level and ability to break games. I think back over the past few decades and we've had strong centers like Koivu, Plekanec, Gomez, Suzuki, Danault, etc. but we haven't ever really had an elite skilled center or true #1. Do you ever feel like we've been down 1-2 goals in the second half of the 3rd and that we had the guy who was going to be dangerous and give us a chance to score night in night out even when the other team was in a defensive shell sitting on a lead? We had some guys like that in Subban and Kovalev who I always thought could generate that offence at any moment, but not anyone as a center in recent memory. So while I'm by no means against adding Shane Wright to our organization (he's still an upgrade on Evans, Dvorak, or Poehling as a 2C), the more I delve into the draft prospects, the more I wonder if Savoie or Cooley isn't a better choice for us.

[claremont]

2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I know the scouts love Wright, so I don't want to discount the opinions of people who watch a lot more of the prospects than I do. He definitely has great vision and strong positional play and skill with the puck. But as some of the reports have said, he doesn't have a particular skill that blows you away. He isn't blazingly fast, he doesn't have the quickest release on his shot, he isn't a guy who dazzles with his moves. He's more just a solid all-around hockey player. Good shot, good passing skill, good smarts. So it's a virtual lock that he'll be an NHLer and he has a reasonable shot at being a top 6 player, but I don't know that any player is a guarantee. I'd say Duchene is best-case scenario for Wright and Barzal is probably best-case scenario for Savoie. But Wright could also be another Tomas Plekanec as well - a serviceable, smart, skilled 2nd line center who isn't really elite.

My thought about choosing a Savoie (or even a Cooley) over Wright is that we already have Suzuki here. Suzuki is, like Wright, a savvy player with good all-around skill, but is he a game-changing talent? Not quite. He hasn't been able to dominate for long stretches, he hasn't been able to elevate linemates consistently, and he hasn't been able to carry a powerplay. So maybe what we need is not another player with that type of hardworking, smart, all-around good but not great skillset but a guy who maybe isn't quite as savvy but has that elite skill level and ability to break games. I think back over the past few decades and we've had strong centers like Koivu, Plekanec, Gomez, Suzuki, Danault, etc. but we haven't ever really had an elite skilled center or true #1. Do you ever feel like we've been down 1-2 goals in the second half of the 3rd and that we had the guy who was going to be dangerous and give us a chance to score night in night out even when the other team was in a defensive shell sitting on a lead? We had some guys like that in Subban and Kovalev who I always thought could generate that offence at any moment, but not anyone as a center in recent memory. So while I'm by no means against adding Shane Wright to our organization (he's still an upgrade on Evans, Dvorak, or Poehling as a 2C), the more I delve into the draft prospects, the more I wonder if Savoie or Cooley isn't a better choice for us.

I’m not sold on Cooley at all - 5 goals , 5 assists on a s h I t e dead last team team in an inferior ushl league is hardly worthy of a top 5 pick. Sean Farrell lit up this league a couple of years ago and he’s a 3rd rounder by comparison. Chaz Lucius had far better stats and he was 18th overall last year. Tyler Boucher almost similar stats 10th overall last year and look at him struggle.  Cooley is a reach for me.  I’ll take Kemell or several others far ahead of Cooley. 

[BigTed3]

7 hours ago, claremont said:

I’m not sold on Cooley at all - 5 goals , 5 assists on a s h I t e dead last team team in an inferior ushl league is hardly worthy of a top 5 pick. Sean Farrell lit up this league a couple of years ago and he’s a 3rd rounder by comparison. Chaz Lucius had far better stats and he was 18th overall last year. Tyler Boucher almost similar stats 10th overall last year and look at him struggle.  Cooley is a reach for me.  I’ll take Kemell or several others far ahead of Cooley. 

I think you stats are lending support to the idea that points don't tell the whole story in the USHL, just as they usually don't in European leagues either. The US NTDP is really the youngest team in the USHL. The other teams have guys a year or two older than the oldest player on the NTDP, and the physical development between a 19 year-old and a 17 year-old can be huge. That's two extra years of gym time and physical maturity.

Cooley has scored points at a reasonable pace, it's not like he's doing nothing. And more importantly, you want to look at his actual skill. How he handles the puck, how he skates, how he shoots, his vision, and so on. All of the assessment at this age is projection, it's how well does this kid's game translate to the NHL and how much is he likely to grow and develop, and what's his trajectory been so far. I personally like his skill level, and you're perfectly allowed to not be high on him. FWIW, I like Kemell too, albeit we're seeing on our own roster this year the relative importance of skilled centers over skilled wingers. I'm just not putting as much stock in team standings or even point production to that degree at this level, especially when a younger team is playing older teams.

[claremont]

57 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

I think you stats are lending support to the idea that points don't tell the whole story in the USHL, just as they usually don't in European leagues either. The US NTDP is really the youngest team in the USHL. The other teams have guys a year or two older than the oldest player on the NTDP, and the physical development between a 19 year-old and a 17 year-old can be huge. That's two extra years of gym time and physical maturity.

Cooley has scored points at a reasonable pace, it's not like he's doing nothing. And more importantly, you want to look at his actual skill. How he handles the puck, how he skates, how he shoots, his vision, and so on. All of the assessment at this age is projection, it's how well does this kid's game translate to the NHL and how much is he likely to grow and develop, and what's his trajectory been so far. I personally like his skill level, and you're perfectly allowed to not be high on him. FWIW, I like Kemell too, albeit we're seeing on our own roster this year the relative importance of skilled centers over skilled wingers. I'm just not putting as much stock in team standings or even point production to that degree at this level, especially when a younger team is playing older teams.

You’re correct on the us ntdp being a young team but the whole ushl is a young league - if you’re 19 and playing in the ushl you didn’t have the marks or skill to get into college. It’s extremely rare for any ushl “older” player to jump to the ahl or be a high draft choice, or even be drafted in a subsequent draft. I see far more “passed over first draft passed late bloomers” getting a redraft - Joe Teasedale and Xavier Simoneau as examples from the cdn junior leagues 

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

You’re correct on the us ntdp being a young team but the whole ushl is a young league - if you’re 19 and playing in the ushl you didn’t have the marks or skill to get into college. It’s extremely rare for any ushl “older” player to jump to the ahl or be a high draft choice, or even be drafted in a subsequent draft. I see far more “passed over first draft passed late bloomers” getting a redraft - Joe Teasedale and Xavier Simoneau as examples from the cdn junior leagues 

Agreed with you that the older players may never amount to anything, but regardless, there's still an advantage in terms of experience and physical maturity that a 19 year-old has over a 17 year-old. It's the same thing we see in junior. It's the same thing we see with career journeymen in Europe being able to dominate draft-eligible players. These guys need time to develop. When you're 25 vs 27, that experience and physical status doesn't matter really, but when you're 17 vs 19 it has a greater impact. In any case, perfectly okay with you having a difference of opinion from me on these prospects, just saying from my end that I'm not holding that against Cooley and still see him as having top-end value in this draft. And for me, he's still behind Savoie and Wright at present, but with room for those players (and Kemell) to jockey around for position down the stretch.

[Regis22]

https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/traikos-why-shane-wright-is-no-longer-the-top-prospect-heading-into-the-nhl-entry-draft

Why Shane Wright is no longer the top prospect heading into the NHL Entry Draft

[claremont]

3 hours ago, Regis22 said:

https://torontosun.com/sports/hockey/traikos-why-shane-wright-is-no-longer-the-top-prospect-heading-into-the-nhl-entry-draft

Why Shane Wright is no longer the top prospect heading into the NHL Entry Draft

Interesting - yes a lot can change - I’ve been flagging Kemell in previous posts so I’m happy someone agrees with me despite he’s not a Centre, could be BAP. 
I am surprised Matthew Savoie no mention in that article - he outperformed Cooley last year in the USHL and appears to be a better team leader. 

[caperns61]

If you get first pick, Shane Wright, he is still the best player to pick in the daft. This is like the year Nathan McKinnon was drafted some media were saying Drouin was the better choice, Droiun had 30 more points than Mckinnon in there draft year and they played on the same team.  MCkinnon did nothing at the World Juniors in 2013. Even his first couple of years in the NHL there were grumblings of him being traded. 

Imagine Druoin goes first that year, Nate 3rd. Dont think you would have gotton McKinnon for Sergachev from Tampa. 

Anyway, if you get first pick, Shane Wright is the player to draft. 

[BigTed3]

20 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

If you get first pick, Shane Wright, he is still the best player to pick in the daft. This is like the year Nathan McKinnon was drafted some media were saying Drouin was the better choice, Droiun had 30 more points than Mckinnon in there draft year and they played on the same team.  MCkinnon did nothing at the World Juniors in 2013. Even his first couple of years in the NHL there were grumblings of him being traded. 

Imagine Druoin goes first that year, Nate 3rd. Dont think you would have gotton McKinnon for Sergachev from Tampa. 

Anyway, if you get first pick, Shane Wright is the player to draft. 

Wright might be the best player out of this draft, just not sure it's a given. I don't think he has the highest ceiling of all the guys near the top.

You can also go back to drafts like 2012, where Yakupov was deemed the clear #1 and then as the draft got closer, people were talking about whether Galchenyuk, Grigorenko, or Forsberg should unseat him. In that same 2013 draft you alluded to, the debate as I recall was more between Mackinnon and Jones as the #1 and everyone was surprised to see Jones slide to #4, with Barkov sneaking into the 2 spot. Yet I'm sure Florida is pretty happy with their selection in the end, even if he wasn't the guy ranked #2 in most pre-draft ratings. In 2014, Ekblad was the de facto #1 all the way through, but most pundits had Reinhart and Bennett battling for the next two spots and then Edmonton surprised by rafting Drasaitl at #3, and thus far, he's turned out to be the best player in that draft. In 2016, Columbus did the same going off the board a bit with PL Dubois at #3, despite just about every mock having Puljujarvi as the 3rd best player behind Matthews and Laine. In 2017, the debate was Hischier vs Patrick the entire time, but look at the guys who went 3 through 5: Heiskanen, Makar, and Pettersson are all undoubtedly better than the top 2 picks. In 2018, Dahlin was the consensus #1 from start to finish and #2 Svechnikov has been the star out of that draft. 2019 is a bit early to say how things will shake out, but Jack Hughes was labeled the clear #1 and Kakko the clear #2, and while they're both good players, I wouldn't be surprised if ten years from now we're looking at Byram or Zegras or Seider as being huge picks that are maybe even better than the top 2. Similarly, in 2020, Lafreniere was the BPA but I personally really liked Stutzle, and several people think Sanderson, Raymond, and Drysdale could be the top stars to come out of that draft when all is said and done.

All that to say that Wright is clearly a strong pick. I think most people think his floor will be a middle 6 center in the NHL, which is a useful part. But what is his ceiling? Is it Tomas Plekanec? Matt Duchene? Patrice Bergeron? Nick Suzuki? Philip Danault? Most people think he's a smart player with a great shot, but he doesn't have great speed and he doesn't control games. So what if his most likely course is that he'll become a 20-goal, 50-point two-way center? Is that good enough to draft #1? Conversely, a guy like Matt Savoie or Logan Cooley could find it harder in the NHL against bigger players, but their skill level appears to be higher. Savoie, for example, is a better skater, better passer, and better stick handler than Wright in my opinion. His shot is also pretty good. He's a bit under-sized and he needs to work a bit on his defensive game, but his skill level is there. As I've said, if Suzuki is locked in here for 8 years, then who is the better complement to him in your top 2 center spots? Another guy who plays a similar game to him or a player with more elite skill and puck skill who could drive the offence, jumpstart your PP, and give you a better chance of scoring big goals when you're trailing late in games? When's the last time we had a game-breaking player like that? I'd say Subban and before that Kovalev, but you have to go back a ways to get to an elite center who could turn games with their offence. You'd likely have to go back to Pierre Turgeon, who is actually a pretty good comparable for Savoie in my opinion.

All of this is of course projection, and it's much easier to go back and look at drafts 5-10 years down the line, but the point would be that sometimes #1 picks or top 3 picks turn out to be the best players in their draft years and sometimes it becomes clear that there are guys drafted a couple of spots lower who are better than the mocks predicted. If I'm the Habs, I'm not necessarily just drafting Wright because the mocks all put him there (and FWIW, many mocks now moving in other directions away from Wright). I'm strongly considering Wright and I'm not disappointed to get him, but I don't think it's as clearcut a choice that he's way ahead of the rest of the pack the way a Crosby or McDavid or Matthews or Tavares were seen as generational talents in their draft years. The Habs are unfortunately heading towards a top 5 pick in yet another year where the draft is weak, so not a bad year to take a swing at a homerun where you might find one.

So where I stand right now, my top 20 Big Board would be

1. Savoie

2. Wright

3. Cooley

4. Kemell

5. Nemec

6. Slafkovsky

7. Yurov

8. Jiricek

9. Nazar

10. Lekkerimaki

11. Miroshnichenko

12. Geekie

13. Salomonsson

14. Mesar

15. Casey

16. Trikozov

17. Lambert

18. Howard

19. McGroarty

20. Chesley

 

[caperns61]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Wright might be the best player out of this draft, just not sure it's a given. I don't think he has the highest ceiling of all the guys near the top.

You can also go back to drafts like 2012, where Yakupov was deemed the clear #1 and then as the draft got closer, people were talking about whether Galchenyuk, Grigorenko, or Forsberg should unseat him. In that same 2013 draft you alluded to, the debate as I recall was more between Mackinnon and Jones as the #1 and everyone was surprised to see Jones slide to #4, with Barkov sneaking into the 2 spot. Yet I'm sure Florida is pretty happy with their selection in the end, even if he wasn't the guy ranked #2 in most pre-draft ratings. In 2014, Ekblad was the de facto #1 all the way through, but most pundits had Reinhart and Bennett battling for the next two spots and then Edmonton surprised by rafting Drasaitl at #3, and thus far, he's turned out to be the best player in that draft. In 2016, Columbus did the same going off the board a bit with PL Dubois at #3, despite just about every mock having Puljujarvi as the 3rd best player behind Matthews and Laine. In 2017, the debate was Hischier vs Patrick the entire time, but look at the guys who went 3 through 5: Heiskanen, Makar, and Pettersson are all undoubtedly better than the top 2 picks. In 2018, Dahlin was the consensus #1 from start to finish and #2 Svechnikov has been the star out of that draft. 2019 is a bit early to say how things will shake out, but Jack Hughes was labeled the clear #1 and Kakko the clear #2, and while they're both good players, I wouldn't be surprised if ten years from now we're looking at Byram or Zegras or Seider as being huge picks that are maybe even better than the top 2. Similarly, in 2020, Lafreniere was the BPA but I personally really liked Stutzle, and several people think Sanderson, Raymond, and Drysdale could be the top stars to come out of that draft when all is said and done.

All that to say that Wright is clearly a strong pick. I think most people think his floor will be a middle 6 center in the NHL, which is a useful part. But what is his ceiling? Is it Tomas Plekanec? Matt Duchene? Patrice Bergeron? Nick Suzuki? Philip Danault? Most people think he's a smart player with a great shot, but he doesn't have great speed and he doesn't control games. So what if his most likely course is that he'll become a 20-goal, 50-point two-way center? Is that good enough to draft #1? Conversely, a guy like Matt Savoie or Logan Cooley could find it harder in the NHL against bigger players, but their skill level appears to be higher. Savoie, for example, is a better skater, better passer, and better stick handler than Wright in my opinion. His shot is also pretty good. He's a bit under-sized and he needs to work a bit on his defensive game, but his skill level is there. As I've said, if Suzuki is locked in here for 8 years, then who is the better complement to him in your top 2 center spots? Another guy who plays a similar game to him or a player with more elite skill and puck skill who could drive the offence, jumpstart your PP, and give you a better chance of scoring big goals when you're trailing late in games? When's the last time we had a game-breaking player like that? I'd say Subban and before that Kovalev, but you have to go back a ways to get to an elite center who could turn games with their offence. You'd likely have to go back to Pierre Turgeon, who is actually a pretty good comparable for Savoie in my opinion.

All of this is of course projection, and it's much easier to go back and look at drafts 5-10 years down the line, but the point would be that sometimes #1 picks or top 3 picks turn out to be the best players in their draft years and sometimes it becomes clear that there are guys drafted a couple of spots lower who are better than the mocks predicted. If I'm the Habs, I'm not necessarily just drafting Wright because the mocks all put him there (and FWIW, many mocks now moving in other directions away from Wright). I'm strongly considering Wright and I'm not disappointed to get him, but I don't think it's as clearcut a choice that he's way ahead of the rest of the pack the way a Crosby or McDavid or Matthews or Tavares were seen as generational talents in their draft years. The Habs are unfortunately heading towards a top 5 pick in yet another year where the draft is weak, so not a bad year to take a swing at a homerun where you might find one.

So where I stand right now, my top 20 Big Board would be

1. Savoie

2. Wright

3. Cooley

4. Kemell

5. Nemec

6. Slafkovsky

7. Yurov

8. Jiricek

9. Nazar

10. Lekkerimaki

11. Miroshnichenko

12. Geekie

13. Salomonsson

14. Mesar

15. Casey

16. Trikozov

17. Lambert

18. Howard

19. McGroarty

20. Chesley

 

I like Savoie alot, but do not see him as number one.

Size is a factor. I dont know of any guys that size you build around. He is a A+ support player, much like Marner is in toronto. I would like to have him for sure but not before Wright. 

Wright, has all the tools, his ceiling is extremely high, it may take him a couple of years to get there, because of losing so much time in his development.  

IF your hoping for a franchise player to build around he is the choice make - if you have that choice , size, skating, offensive, defensive instinct. All the tools. 

[BigTed3]

20 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

I like Savoie alot, but do not see him as number one.

Size is a factor. I dont know of any guys that size you build around. He is a A+ support player, much like Marner is in toronto. I would like to have him for sure but not before Wright. 

Wright, has all the tools, his ceiling is extremely high, it may take him a couple of years to get there, because of losing so much time in his development.  

IF your hoping for a franchise player to build around he is the choice make - if you have that choice , size, skating, offensive, defensive instinct. All the tools. 

It's a fair question to ask. My argument would be that if the guy has that amount of skill and has dominated in junior, he has the ability to do it in the NHL. I'd actually worry more the other way, about guys who dominate in junior because they're so much bigger and whether the dominance is because they actually have the skill to play in the bigs or whether they're just dominating weaker players on account of a size advantage.

Lately, we've seen some smaller players not only be able to play but actually dominate at the NHL level. Brayden Point is the first guy that comes to mind... he slid down the draft board because of his size (he's listed at 5'10", so one inch and about 3-4 lbs bigger than Savoie) but he's been Tampa's best player much of the past three years. Brad Marchand is one of the best scorers in the league despite being 5'9" like Savoie. Mats Zuccarello is in the top 40 in NHL scoring again this year despite being smaller at 5'8". If we look at the Hawks, Patrick Kane is one inch taller and several pounds lighter than Savoie, and he was a 1st overall pick who has led his franchise to a Cup. In his draft year, Kane was listed at 5'9" (same as Savoie) and 160 lbs (more than 15lbs lighter). Also in Chicago is the 5'7" Alex Debrincat, who as a better-than-PPG player last year and already has 24 goals in 41 games this year, good for 5th in the league. He's been better than any forward we have in our organization.

Anyways, just a few examples of shorter players who are clear 1st-line players and who have dominated at the NHL level. Would I prefer if Savoie was a bit bigger? Sure. But I'm not deterred from his being a potential star just on account of his size.

[caperns61]

You make it sound like I said small players cannot succeed in the NHL, they can and they do I agree with 100%,  I dont deny Savoie skillset, or Marchand Or Brayden or Denbricat, or Zuccarello, but if you looking at a franchise player to build around, it's not  a player of that stature,  you can add Marner to your list of smaller players as well i mentioned him in a prior post, i dont deny their skillset for one second, would love to have any of them.  

(Prime) Bergeron in Boston.  Prime (Towes) in Chicago, These are the players that drive and drove their teams. Kucherov/Hedman in Tampa.

The players you alluded to, skilled yes, excellent hockey players yes, but are A to A+ support players. 

I believe if your swinging for that franchise player, Wright needs to be the choice. It may now even matter we may not get the obtion to choose him anyway. 

Ands its not just because he is bigger, that would be silly, silly, silly,  its because he has all the skill as well.

Scouts,

He is an outstanding skater with excellent speed, acceleration, agility and balance.  His skating style is similar to Sidney Crosby, where explosiveness from a standstill is consistent and open ice is attacked with speed and confidence.

I think what makes Wright such an incredible prospect is his unmatched understanding of the game in all three zones of the ice. Wright’s understanding of the game is higher than most prospects, and one could make the argument he’s the smartest of all draft-eligible forwards. 

Not only is he an incredibly athletic kid who boasts a wide gait and boxy shoulders that will allow him to stay over pucks and play through checks at the NHL level, but those physical tools are complemented by a lethal wrist shot release

So I am not saying size alone is a factor, I am size plus everything else he posses is a factor.

He needs to be our choice if we have a chance to get him.  

 

[BigTed3]

57 minutes ago, caperns61 said:

You make it sound like I said small players cannot succeed in the NHL, they can and they do I agree with 100%,  I dont deny Savoie skillset, or Marchand Or Brayden or Denbricat, or Zuccarello, but if you looking at a franchise player to build around, it's not  a player of that stature,  you can add Marner to your list of smaller players as well i mentioned him in a prior post, i dont deny their skillset for one second, would love to have any of them.  

(Prime) Bergeron in Boston.  Prime (Towes) in Chicago, These are the players that drive and drove their teams. Kucherov/Hedman in Tampa.

The players you alluded to, skilled yes, excellent hockey players yes, but are A to A+ support players. 

I believe if your swinging for that franchise player, Wright needs to be the choice. It may now even matter we may not get the obtion to choose him anyway. 

Ands its not just because he is bigger, that would be silly, silly, silly,  its because he has all the skill as well.

Scouts,

He is an outstanding skater with excellent speed, acceleration, agility and balance.  His skating style is similar to Sidney Crosby, where explosiveness from a standstill is consistent and open ice is attacked with speed and confidence.

I think what makes Wright such an incredible prospect is his unmatched understanding of the game in all three zones of the ice. Wright’s understanding of the game is higher than most prospects, and one could make the argument he’s the smartest of all draft-eligible forwards. 

Not only is he an incredibly athletic kid who boasts a wide gait and boxy shoulders that will allow him to stay over pucks and play through checks at the NHL level, but those physical tools are complemented by a lethal wrist shot release

So I am not saying size alone is a factor, I am size plus everything else he posses is a factor.

He needs to be our choice if we have a chance to get him.  

 

And again, it's a fair assessment. I'm not against Wright as the top choice, and he could well end up being the best player out of this draft. I'm just saying that I don't think size is a reason to discount Savoie as a potential first pick either. IMO, Patrick Kane (who was smaller than Savoie when he went first overall) is not a supporting cast player in Chicago. He and Toews bring different things to the table, but I'd argue Kane was the most important player on those Chicago teams. He took over games and scored big goals where others didn't. And yes, Chicago had Toews and Hossa and Keith and so on, but also not suggesting the Habs would have Savoie and no one else. I think he has the potential to be a 1C who can score 70-80 points in this league and the potential to be a guy who takes over games and drives his team. I'll also come back to the fact that we have Nick Suzuki, and he too is a good but not great skater, a guy with great hockey sense, good agility, strong skill level, captain material, etc. But as of yet, Suzuki hasn't become a guy who can propel his team to victory and take over games. I hope he gets there, but it's no more of a guarantee.

[claremont]

21 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

It's a fair question to ask. My argument would be that if the guy has that amount of skill and has dominated in junior, he has the ability to do it in the NHL. I'd actually worry more the other way, about guys who dominate in junior because they're so much bigger and whether the dominance is because they actually have the skill to play in the bigs or whether they're just dominating weaker players on account of a size advantage.

Lately, we've seen some smaller players not only be able to play but actually dominate at the NHL level. Brayden Point is the first guy that comes to mind... he slid down the draft board because of his size (he's listed at 5'10", so one inch and about 3-4 lbs bigger than Savoie) but he's been Tampa's best player much of the past three years. Brad Marchand is one of the best scorers in the league despite being 5'9" like Savoie. Mats Zuccarello is in the top 40 in NHL scoring again this year despite being smaller at 5'8". If we look at the Hawks, Patrick Kane is one inch taller and several pounds lighter than Savoie, and he was a 1st overall pick who has led his franchise to a Cup. In his draft year, Kane was listed at 5'9" (same as Savoie) and 160 lbs (more than 15lbs lighter). Also in Chicago is the 5'7" Alex Debrincat, who as a better-than-PPG player last year and already has 24 goals in 41 games this year, good for 5th in the league. He's been better than any forward we have in our organization.

Anyways, just a few examples of shorter players who are clear 1st-line players and who have dominated at the NHL level. Would I prefer if Savoie was a bit bigger? Sure. But I'm not deterred from his being a potential star just on account of his size.

The need is for Centre. Even though you should draft BAP, it does not make much sense to draft the smaller Savoie or Cooley and convert them to a winger. I would argue you would be better off drafting Kemell vs. the fall back solution of converting Savoie / Cooley if they don't pass the grade at centre.

You're correct on Brayden Point as the exceptional small centre. A small centre better have exceptional vision, skating and playmaking or the consensus seems to be they are getting creamed by the modern big defenseman in the middle ice. Kane - he's been a RW ever since I can remember. Marchand - a LW, DeBrincat - a LW. Zuccarello a RW. We already have two smurfs on the wing in Caufield, Gallagher, and a LW in Drouin who at 6 ft plays small.  I hope if we draft Savoie or Cooley, they don't turn out to be the reincarnation of C - Scott Gomez - 5ft -11, and surround him with Brian Gionta types, for the goal of being a fast offensive puck possession team but with small players. 

Anticipating your counter point of drafting Michael McCarron's, drafting on size is a recipe for disaster - I hope the mgmt., and scouting team can strike the right balance of skill and size in determining who we draft in our top 5 pick. This is another very hard draft to evaluate as there isn't the body of work to evaluate these juniors in terms of progression since most of them do not have 2 years of full season game play and there is limited tape etc. Perhaps that is why we are seeing the overload of US NTDP players or Euros in the top 32 mock drafts or NHL central scouting reports  - they have played a few more games than the cdn junior leagues.