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NHL 2022 Draft


claremont
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7 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

Is two spots the farthest you can fall? I remember Detroit went from #1 to #4?

Yes. They changed it this year so that there are only two lotteries this year instead of three, so max two teams can leapfrog you. They also changed it so that you can only move up max 10 spots, so not everyone can move all the way to #1.

What makes that second rule change interesting is the following: if you finish last and a team ranked 12th to 16th last wins the lottery, they move up ten spots but on top of that you're also assigned the #1 pick. The second draw isn't for #1, it's for #2, so the worst team gets locked in whereas the 2nd worst teams onwards don't, even if they don't get leapfrogged by the 1st winner. On top of that, it means a team can end up with the 1st pick NOT having won the lottery and thus not have it count against their 5-year rule of not being able to win repeatedly. So technically a team can still have the first overall pick 5 years in a row, and it's actually best-case scenario for the last-placed team to have team 12-16 win the lottery, giving them the top pick but without it counting as a win.

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

I think until they do the lottery, we have a chance at #1.  I agree that its unlikely we finish dead last but even then a team has a better chance of picking 2nd or 3rd vs. 1st.  If we end up bottom 3 we have decent odds at #1.  Like you, i think Wright is likely going to go 1st overall. He's just too much of a 'can't miss' - players like him rarely dont become at least a quality top 6 guy.  Sure, one of the other players may end up being better but there's risk there too.

I think its a safe bet we get a top 5 pick.  After wright, I think honestly any of those guys could go anywhere in the top 6 or 7. I think teams may value a guy like Kemell or Jiricek in their top 5 and may also pick positionally vs. BPA. 

I think your list is pretty solid.  If we cant get wright, id love to add Savoie or Cooley as potential top 6 centres.   Nemec would jump to the top of our dman depth chart so he's very intriguing too.

Im very curious to see how HuGo handles this draft.  

If you finish last, your odds of picking 1st are 25.7% (it includes your own lottery win odds plus the odds of teams 12-16 winning). If you finish 2nd last, the odds of 1st overall drop substantially to 12.1% because you only win 1st overall if you yourself win the lottery. So it's a pretty meaty difference. On top of that, as I posted above, the last overall team can technically retain the 1st overall pick without giving up a tick against their 5-year lottery win count whereas the 2nd and 3rd-last teams actually need to win the lottery to get to #1.

The other points I'll make are the same as in previous years:

- You can still fall down two spots below where you finish in the pecking order, so a last-place finish means a guaranteed top 3 pick whereas a 3rd-last finish means only a guaranteed top 5 pick. So it's not necessarily just picking 3, it could mean the difference between 1 vs 5.

- It is far more likely for a team to drop in the draft order than it is for them to retain their own spot or move up. For the last-place team, the odds are still 74% that you fall out of first overall. For the 2nd last team, the odds are 74% that you fall. For the 3rd last team, it's a 71% chance you fall and only a 7% chance you retain your own 3 spot. In essence, the lottery changes more at the top of the pecking order than the final rankings and on top of that, most teams will be hurt rather than helped by the lottery result.

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For you draft pundits, there are two web sites I found with draft rankings that allow you to simulate a draft - the benefit is that based on their rankings, it does allow you to review who is available when we pick in later rounds. Personally I am only interested in the first 3 rounds of drafting and after that, the 4th round picks don't carry much interest for me. We have 7 picks in the first 3 rounds

First up is Dobber Prospects Draft simulator where you click Local Draft, and select Montreal. The web site has 1 set of rankings and has a lottery simulator. You can draft based on team needs or random weightings.  https://draftprospectshockey.com/draftsim/#/

2nd up is FC Hockey's draft - It does not have a lottery sim, but picks based on current standing rankings. - https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/

So what's the purpose of these exercises you ask? 1) It gives you some elementary scouting reports all in one source 2) It allows you to perhaps see some lower ranked yet still skilled players who may be available in later rounds. The draft rankings seem loaded with a lot of smaller height players. The downside - you may entirely disagree with some of the rankings below say pick 25 and want to reference NHL Central scouting or other sources for drafts

For example, my dark horses at 29th overall - I would probably pick RHD Elias Salomonsson (perhaps Tristen Luneau or Ty Nelson) but good slots for depth of a strong RHD (i.e. why pick Nemec or Jiricek in your top 5 picks unless you feel they are so strongly elite and way above these RHD at this lower pick level.   At 34th overall I am likely picking C - Nathan Gaucher or LW Jani Nyman At 49th overall David Goyette could still be available. And on it goes

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

For you draft pundits, there are two web sites I found with draft rankings that allow you to simulate a draft - the benefit is that based on their rankings, it does allow you to review who is available when we pick in later rounds. Personally I am only interested in the first 3 rounds of drafting and after that, the 4th round picks don't carry much interest for me. We have 7 picks in the first 3 rounds

First up is Dobber Prospects Draft simulator where you click Local Draft, and select Montreal. The web site has 1 set of rankings and has a lottery simulator. You can draft based on team needs or random weightings.  https://draftprospectshockey.com/draftsim/#/

2nd up is FC Hockey's draft - It does not have a lottery sim, but picks based on current standing rankings. - https://nhlentrydraft.com/mock-draft/

So what's the purpose of these exercises you ask? 1) It gives you some elementary scouting reports all in one source 2) It allows you to perhaps see some lower ranked yet still skilled players who may be available in later rounds. The draft rankings seem loaded with a lot of smaller height players. The downside - you may entirely disagree with some of the rankings below say pick 25 and want to reference NHL Central scouting or other sources for drafts

For example, my dark horses at 29th overall - I would probably pick RHD Elias Salomonsson (perhaps Tristen Luneau or Ty Nelson) but good slots for depth of a strong RHD (i.e. why pick Nemec or Jiricek in your top 5 picks unless you feel they are so strongly elite and way above these RHD at this lower pick level.   At 34th overall I am likely picking C - Nathan Gaucher or LW Jani Nyman At 49th overall David Goyette could still be available. And on it goes

Salomonsson is a guy I've talked about before too. Having an off year but has the talent to be good. And I like Luneau as a late 1st rounder as well. The other D man who is a possible late-1st hidden gem is Calle Odelius. I'd be pleased with any of those three, and as I posted earlier this week, Gorton has a track record of going to the CHL and Sweden/Finland for picks, so all three could be in his wheelhouse.

For forwards, Gleb Trikozov is a dark horse for me. COuld go as high as 12-15 or could slip out of the 1st with the worry about Russian players. But he has immense puck skill and is young for his draft year, so has lots of room to grow. Gaucher for me is a safe pick but one with less upside. I'd rather see the team swing for bigger talent. Miroschnichenko could be available in the 25-35 range with all his issues. Danny Zhilkin is another guy I like for the 2nd round. There will be the chance to come away with 4 NHL-quality players out of this draft for us.

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Wondering how many teams will pass over the Russian players (defined as those that have no VISA or work permit in the USA or Canada - not currently playing here with junior teams), to the 4th to 7th rounds. Will it be for political purposes (i.e. backlash from fans on selecting Russians perhaps more in the USA), or will it be for practical purposes that the Russian players just can't secure entry into North America for immigration purposes. Should we gamble on the future vs. these players perhaps being stalled in their development?

The KHL is still playing but will their development leagues be weaker and will scouts watch?

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47 minutes ago, claremont said:

Wondering how many teams will pass over the Russian players (defined as those that have no VISA or work permit in the USA or Canada - not currently playing here with junior teams), to the 4th to 7th rounds. Will it be for political purposes (i.e. backlash from fans on selecting Russians perhaps more in the USA), or will it be for practical purposes that the Russian players just can't secure entry into North America for immigration purposes. Should we gamble on the future vs. these players perhaps being stalled in their development?

The KHL is still playing but will their development leagues be weaker and will scouts watch?

I think we may see some of them pushed back deeper into the draft, but i think they still get drafted regardless. It will be a couple years minimum for some of them to break into the NHL,,,  and i imagine the political situation could be quite different by then.

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4 hours ago, H_T_L said:

I think we may see some of them pushed back deeper into the draft, but i think they still get drafted regardless. It will be a couple years minimum for some of them to break into the NHL,,,  and i imagine the political situation could be quite different by then.

For sure. Top teams that can wait on elite players will roll the dice.

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On 4/13/2022 at 7:09 PM, electron58 said:

Joakim Kemell, RW, JYP (Fin.) - after Wright, this guy may be the next BPA. I know we are strong on RW, and, he will probably be gone anyway. 

Logan Cooley, LHC, NTDP (USHL) - another player that will probably be gone. Habs could take him if available,  as he would play at least one year of College Hockey. 

Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, TPS (Fin.)  - after what he showed in the Olympics,  this guy is ready now. May also be gone when we pick, and do we really need a left winger?

Matt Savoie, RHC, Winnipeg (WHL)  -  a dynamic right shot center who may be available to us. We've lucked out with small players . Could this be another Denis Savard scenario? If Habs feel he is BPA I say we grab him.

Simon Nemec, RHD, Nitra (Svk.)  OR

David Jiricek, RHD, Plzen (Cze.)  

Either of these 2 RHD would address a position of need. I grouped them together   as we wouldn't be wrong with either choice. One of them would also be more likely available. 

Curious to know, what HUGO thinks our greatest area of need is. For sure RHD. RHC would be nice, but a big player with upside that can skate, would also be nice. Also, a question to consider, when would they want this pick available to play? I guess a lot depends on what players they can possibly move out before the draft. Right now,  we have 49 players under contract.

So realistically   if we're picking 6th (worst case scenario   in my mind) we're picking a RHD or Matt Savoie.

 

On 4/13/2022 at 7:39 AM, BigTed3 said:

With the way things are shaping up, it's looking more and more likely that we'll have a top 5 pick but not the top 1. So assume Wright goes #1. Who are your next 4 picks in order of who you'd take if you're on the clock? These are mine as it stands:

2. Cooley

3. Nemec

4. Savoie

5. Slafkovsky

We are getting closer and closer to that top 5 pick threshold and it's plainly evident to me over the last few games that we need puck in the net scorers far more than a RHD. We are outshooting teams but can't finish.  I get the BAP theory (that you can trade excess positional players if you get overstocked with say RHD depth but it does depend on your development ability to get those comparables to reach their potential). If we are picking #4, or #5, I am not convinced that Nemec or Jiricek are the best choices. Are those two that much more elite over Salamonsson, Luneau or Ty Nelson RHD one of which will likely be available at pick #29? The fall-off in centre or wing scorers to pick #29 is quite immense and for that reason assuming we don't win the lottery, It's becoming clearer to me that we should pick one of Slafkovsky, Cooley, Savoie or Kemell for that goal scoring need. Kemell concerns me as he has had quite the fall-off from his early season success and his shoulder injury. Really hoping for a top 4 pick. 

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

 

We are getting closer and closer to that top 5 pick threshold and it's plainly evident to me over the last few games that we need puck in the net scorers far more than a RHD. We are outshooting teams but can't finish.  I get the BAP theory (that you can trade excess positional players if you get overstocked with say RHD depth but it does depend on your development ability to get those comparables to reach their potential). If we are picking #4, or #5, I am not convinced that Nemec or Jiricek are the best choices. Are those two that much more elite over Salamonsson, Luneau or Ty Nelson RHD one of which will likely be available at pick #29? The fall-off in centre or wing scorers to pick #29 is quite immense and for that reason assuming we don't win the lottery, It's becoming clearer to me that we should pick one of Slafkovsky, Cooley, Savoie or Kemell for that goal scoring need. Kemell concerns me as he has had quite the fall-off from his early season success and his shoulder injury. Really hoping for a top 4 pick. 

Our odds of a bottom 3 finish are high, which means a guarantee of a top 5 pick. I somewhat agree with you that a top 6 center is the biggest game-changer if you can get one at the top of the draft. That said, Kotkaniemi didn't work out for us and neither did Galchenyuk in that spot. So I still think you go with the best player available. If Nemec or Jiricek is in our scouts' eyes the best player there, then that can still be a game changer too. You look at what players like Robinson, Markov, or Subban were able to do driving play from the back end, and to me that's valuable. A #1 D man typically plays 24 minutes a night. He can make the PP better. He can spring forwards for more chances off the rush. So maybe it won't lead to a higher shooting percentage among forwards, but it can lead to a higher number of shots and scoring chances for and fewer against. If your forwards score 10% of their shots but get 200 shots over a 6-game period instead of 150 shots, then that's 5 more goals.

All that to say that

1. As the season has moved on, Wright is to me clearly the #1 choice as best talent available and best at filling a hole we have.

2. Savoie is still in my view the most skilled player in the draft, but I have concerns over scouts and his own head coach suggesting he may be better suited to being a winger at the NHL level. If I knew we'd be getting a center like Matt Barzal, I would jump on that. If it's a question of whether we're getting Mats Zucarello instead, then that's a bigger question mark to me. Zucarello is still a great player and can score goals, but he's a supporting cast player as a winger. So for me, it's a question of whether our guys think Savoie can play center, because center vs. wing is a big thing for me in terms of added impact value.

3. Cooley may have some things to work on, but his skill is also there and as a projected top 6 center as well, he's also an impact player I would want to draft.

4. But past that, Nemec and Jiricek are both in the conversation. I think either instantly becomes our best D prospect and frankly, despite the depth of defenceman prospects we have in the organization, few project at top 2-3  guys, so we're still in need of a potential #1 D man. You look at the teams in our own division who project to be most relevant in 3-4 years and they're all stacked with elite young D men. Buffalo has Power and Dahlin, Detroit has Seider, Edvinsson, and Wallinder, Ott has Chabot and Sanderson. Each of those teams has at least two guys who project as being better than our top D prospect.

5. Agreed with you that there are god D prospects deeper in the 1st round too. I like Luneau. I like Calle Odelius. I like Salomonsson. But there's nothing wrong in my view with drafting a Nemec at the top and a Luneau or Odelius with the Flames' 1st or our 2nd. If we end up with so many great D men that we can't play them all, then we'll have excellent trade chips to go and get a 1C down the line. That's why you still draft BPA.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

4. But past that, Nemec and Jiricek are both in the conversation. I think either instantly becomes our best D prospect and frankly, despite the depth of defenceman prospects we have in the organization, few project at top 2-3  guys, so we're still in need of a potential #1 D man. You look at the teams in our own division who project to be most relevant in 3-4 years and they're all stacked with elite young D men. Buffalo has Power and Dahlin, Detroit has Seider, Edvinsson, and Wallinder, Ott has Chabot and Sanderson. Each of those teams has at least two guys who project as being better than our top D prospect.

5. Agreed with you that there are god D prospects deeper in the 1st round too. I like Luneau. I like Calle Odelius. I like Salomonsson. But there's nothing wrong in my view with drafting a Nemec at the top and a Luneau or Odelius with the Flames' 1st or our 2nd. If we end up with so many great D men that we can't play them all, then we'll have excellent trade chips to go and get a 1C down the line. That's why you still draft BPA.

Here's my issue with the BPA collision with need when you have a plethora of emerging talent at a given position

a) Calle Odelius is a LHD - we have so much depth at LHD, even though he may be the BPA, and bear in mind usually D -men take a minimum of 2 if not 3 years to emerge, we have Edmundson (who will be gone by the time Odelius is ready), followed by Romanov, Harris, Guhle, Schuneman, Norlinder, Struble, Trudeau,  Fairbrother (nobody guaranteed as a lock #1 puck mover. Unless Odelius is projected as a can't miss elite Hedman, Dahlin / Power , Josi , Nurse etc, - I believe need has to triumph over BPA at that selection spot

b) The draft pick may be BPA at this point in time but if you don't develop / coach / provide the opportunities, for that pick to blossom, then the value of that trade chip diminishes. For better clarity let's say Norlinder and Harris start competing for the elusive top pairing scoring puck moving LHD spot, and Odelius is emerging as a depth piece - do you take the risk and trade one of Norlinder or Harris because you have confidence in Odelius to fill that void? The answer is probably Yes, but I am not sure there are many practical cases where that has been done, and thus Odelius may not have as much value as the trade chip - it's the player he replaces that becomes the trade chip.  

RHD is a position of weakness in our system that we both agree upon - beyond Barron, there is nobody that excites me on the RHD side unless Harris or Guhle can play their off side and we live with a 5/6 pairing of Savard or fill the development window (for this 2022 class to emerge) with Letang. I agree with you that we need to fill this void ( I have become a little less enamoured with Ty Nelson based on some reviews). If Management chooses to overload by picking RHD Nemec / Jiricek followed up by some RHD picks at 29 then we solidify this area but it's at the expense of 'centres' or scoring forwards which will continue to be elusive. I am just desiring some scoring balance, and did not see much in the centre or wing pool down the line that could fill then net with pucks. (Kulick, Nyman, Zhilkin, Goyette). It is a very interesting dilemma.  

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1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

KH stated that the draft is not for making your team . That they will go with the BPA and then make up the team later . 

Well that’s encouraging and consistent with the 2 heads are better than one vision. I got the sense with last years mailloux pick that either timmins or Bergevin went off the board to make a rogue pick that the organization was not prepared for. Sounds like they will have a disciplined and principled board that they will adhere to. 
I should have added in a previous post that I am intrigued to follow the progression of Logan M as a RHD prospect to evaluate his talent and not condoning his actions, as to whether he can fit in our RHD depth. He got an early season ending injury this year - perhaps a good thing to be off the radar in this mess of a season. It will be interesting to see if VP communications Chantal Machabee tries to shield him with progressive answers to endless forgiveness and behavior press questions and doesn’t compromise her own values vs. giving up on this young man and dumping him for squat to a destination like desert valley - Phoenix 

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

Here's my issue with the BPA collision with need when you have a plethora of emerging talent at a given position

a) Calle Odelius is a LHD - we have so much depth at LHD, even though he may be the BPA, and bear in mind usually D -men take a minimum of 2 if not 3 years to emerge, we have Edmundson (who will be gone by the time Odelius is ready), followed by Romanov, Harris, Guhle, Schuneman, Norlinder, Struble, Trudeau,  Fairbrother (nobody guaranteed as a lock #1 puck mover. Unless Odelius is projected as a can't miss elite Hedman, Dahlin / Power , Josi , Nurse etc, - I believe need has to triumph over BPA at that selection spot

b) The draft pick may be BPA at this point in time but if you don't develop / coach / provide the opportunities, for that pick to blossom, then the value of that trade chip diminishes. For better clarity let's say Norlinder and Harris start competing for the elusive top pairing scoring puck moving LHD spot, and Odelius is emerging as a depth piece - do you take the risk and trade one of Norlinder or Harris because you have confidence in Odelius to fill that void? The answer is probably Yes, but I am not sure there are many practical cases where that has been done, and thus Odelius may not have as much value as the trade chip - it's the player he replaces that becomes the trade chip.  

RHD is a position of weakness in our system that we both agree upon - beyond Barron, there is nobody that excites me on the RHD side unless Harris or Guhle can play their off side and we live with a 5/6 pairing of Savard or fill the development window (for this 2022 class to emerge) with Letang. I agree with you that we need to fill this void ( I have become a little less enamoured with Ty Nelson based on some reviews). If Management chooses to overload by picking RHD Nemec / Jiricek followed up by some RHD picks at 29 then we solidify this area but it's at the expense of 'centres' or scoring forwards which will continue to be elusive. I am just desiring some scoring balance, and did not see much in the centre or wing pool down the line that could fill then net with pucks. (Kulick, Nyman, Zhilkin, Goyette). It is a very interesting dilemma.  

In a perfect world, your draft choices complement what you expect to have as holes in your organizational depth chart. But at the same time, there are many factors that trump making a choice based on positional need:

1. You have no idea how your prospects are going to pan out. Two years ago, we would have said the Habs looked set at center with Suzuki and Kotkaniemi as possible long-term top 6 options, Danault still around a a possible 3C vet, and guys like Evans, Vejdemo, and Poehling potentially vying for spots down the line. Well Danault chose to jump ship and Kotkaniemi got fed up with management and forced his way out too. So here we are with crappy center depth at the NHL level. We have a plethora of bottom 6 options but no one to follow Suzuki in the top 6. Likewise, guys like Tim Bozon or Martin Reway got drafted and then fell ill and never recovered. Guys like Magnus Nygren and Mattias Norlinder got homesick playing here. Others had rumored drug problems or were used as trade chips or just never panned out. It's just hard to predict how things will go 2-3 yers down the line, never mind 5.

2. Guys you have may no longer be options sooner than you think too. Again, Kotkaniemi got offersheeted. Danault wanted too much money. Weber was forced into quasi-retirement by injury. Petry and Gallagher's play have dropped off just a year into new longterm contracts. Price missed almost an entire season. Lehkonen was dealt because our bad season meant we were more open to trading impending free agents. If we had had a good year, we'd likely still have he, Kulak, and Chiarot on the roster now, and maybe we'd have re-signed 1-2 of them.

3. Prospects and youngsters can always be moved in trades. Just look at the Avs in recent years. They selected Cale Makar at 4 overall in 2017 and followed it up with another RHD at #32 that same year when they chose Conor Timmins. Two years later, they used their 4th overall pick on another D man in Bowen Byram and opted for a RHD in Drew Helleson in the 2nd round. In 2020, they chose Justin Barron with their first rounder, yet another RHD. So you might look at this and say the Avs had Erik Johnson and Cale Makar already, so why would they continue to draft RHD near the top of their drafts over subsequent years? But they turned Timmins into their starting goalie. They used Helleson to add Josh Manson and Barron to add Lehkonen. So they ended up spending most of their RHD prospect capital towards making a Cup run. An organizational strength has quickly become an area of need again, but they used that area of strength to get what they wanted. Similarly, the Habs are sitting on Romanov, Harris, Guhle, Norlinder, and Struble at LHD. But there's no guarantee any of those players pans out as a top 3 D man and some may never play another game in the NHL. Maybe in 3 years Romanov wants 7M a year and we move on from him. Maybe Norlinder stays in Europe the rest of his life. Maybe Struble never signs with us. Maybe Guhle runs into injury trouble. The smart move, if you think a LHD is the best player available when you step up, is to take that player and worry about the rest later. If you have 4 LHD who are all worthy of playing in the top 4, then you have a great problem and you'll get an excellent return for a young D man in their prime. If you end up only having two pan out, then you had enough buffer to get your two anyways.

At the end of the day, you need help at all positions. But you never know when your needs will flip on a dime, and if you want to trade, I guarantee there will always be an organization looking for help at LHD or RHD or center. I'm more hesitant to push all my chips in at wing unless the prospect blows me away, and I think in general wingers are less impactful on games and easier to replace if you're built well at center and D. But I'd have no problem using two first rounders on centers or on RHD or LHD this year, if that gives us the best draft.

 

 

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On 4/13/2022 at 7:39 AM, BigTed3 said:

With the way things are shaping up, it's looking more and more likely that we'll have a top 5 pick but not the top 1. So assume Wright goes #1. Who are your next 4 picks in order of who you'd take if you're on the clock? These are mine as it stands:

2. Cooley

3. Nemec

4. Savoie

5. Slafkovsky

It's looking more and more, like we will finish 31st. (even better tan my 30th prediction) So realistically, we can narrow it down to us picking 2nd., 3rd., or 4rth. With the posibility, of 1st OA.

1. Shane Wright,     C        Ht/Wt:6'  1"/187 lbs.   =   best overall player available.

2. Logan Cooley,     C        Ht/Wt:5'10"/174 lbs.   =   speedster & maybe the most exciting player available.  & a Centerman.

3. Joakim Kemell,   RW     Ht/Wt:5'11"/176 lbs.   =   pure shooter, playing among men. BPA? Will be a goal scorer.

4. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW      Ht/Wt:6' 4"/225 lbs    =   got size. bit of a gamble, but everything points to being an elite scorer.

Maybe we snatch a RD or 2, later in the first round, or early 2nd round.  So hopefully, we can fill a need, with either of the first 2 picks. After that? If going by best player available, can't go wrong with either of these choices. Hopefully, after May 16th. we get lucky for once, and pick first OA, or 2nd OA (worst case scenario)   Image result for fingers crossed emoji

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19 hours ago, Regis22 said:

KH stated that the draft is not for making your team . That they will go with the BPA and then make up the team later . 

i agree with that in principle, especially after the top 5 but if you think the BPA is a RW and there's a Centre (A position we're sorely lacking) who is a very close second at that point, i think it makes sense to go with the guy who steps right on your team in a position you need. 

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14 hours ago, electron58 said:

It's looking more and more, like we will finish 31st. (even better tan my 30th prediction) So realistically, we can narrow it down to us picking 2nd., 3rd., or 4rth. With the posibility, of 1st OA.

1. Shane Wright,     C        Ht/Wt:6'  1"/187 lbs.   =   best overall player available.

2. Logan Cooley,     C        Ht/Wt:5'10"/174 lbs.   =   speedster & maybe the most exciting player available.  & a Centerman.

3. Joakim Kemell,   RW     Ht/Wt:5'11"/176 lbs.   =   pure shooter, playing among men. BPA? Will be a goal scorer.

4. Juraj Slafkovsky, LW      Ht/Wt:6' 4"/225 lbs    =   got size. bit of a gamble, but everything points to being an elite scorer.

Maybe we snatch a RD or 2, later in the first round, or early 2nd round.  So hopefully, we can fill a need, with either of the first 2 picks. After that? If going by best player available, can't go wrong with either of these choices. Hopefully, after May 16th. we get lucky for once, and pick first OA, or 2nd OA (worst case scenario)   Image result for fingers crossed emoji

Gotta say, I love Slafkovsky's size.

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1 hour ago, habs1952 said:

Gotta say, I love Slafkovsky's size.

I do too - puck possession, top shot, active stick pass / possession protection, and reach - his skating is average but you expect that for a power forward. I think he's a compliment to the fast skilled puck possession team that HuGo desire our team to be and hope that they don't rule him out just because of speed issues. I would be quite happy with any one of Wright / Slafkovsky / Savoie / Cooley as a preference but I accept the merits of a RHD of Nemec or Jiriciek - Kemell has fallen a bit since the Olympics, otherwise I would have put him ahead of Cooley. 

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1 hour ago, claremont said:

I do too - puck possession, top shot, active stick pass / possession protection, and reach - his skating is average but you expect that for a power forward. I think he's a compliment to the fast skilled puck possession team that HuGo desire our team to be and hope that they don't rule him out just because of speed issues. I would be quite happy with any one of Wright / Slafkovsky / Savoie / Cooley as a preference but I accept the merits of a RHD of Nemec or Jiriciek - Kemell has fallen a bit since the Olympics, otherwise I would have put him ahead of Cooley. 

Where have we heard this description before? KK, Armia, Lehkonen sure Armia and Lehkonen were wingers but the description is the same. Puck possession, good shot, great defensively..... 

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44 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

Where have we heard this description before? KK, Armia, Lehkonen sure Armia and Lehkonen were wingers but the description is the same. Puck possession, good shot, great defensively..... 

True. Maybe we go for a more elite player  Preferably, a center. Picking anywhere between 2-4 makes it challenging.

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2 hours ago, campabee82 said:

Where have we heard this description before? KK, Armia, Lehkonen sure Armia and Lehkonen were wingers but the description is the same. Puck possession, good shot, great defensively..... 

really? I never heard KK have a top shot and never saw highlights where he had an nhl shot. Armia we didn’t even draft and he was 16th overall - pretty big fall off from a consensus top 5 pick of Slaf  to 16th. Lehks wasn’t big 5-11 when he was drafted at 55th overall and hardly a power forward vs Slafkovsky at 6-4 mvp of Olympics at 18 with 7 goals in 7 games. Pretty  tough comparisons 

I get that we would prefer to get a Centre but Slafkovsky appears to be far from a slug and all reports are that he is in the elite class 

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11 minutes ago, claremont said:

really? I never heard KK have a top shot and never saw highlights where he had an nhl shot. Armia we didn’t even draft and he was 16th overall - pretty big fall off from a consensus top 5 pick of Slaf  to 16th. Lehks wasn’t big 5-11 when he was drafted at 55th overall and hardly a power forward vs Slafkovsky at 6-4 mvp of Olympics at 18 with 7 goals in 7 games. Pretty  tough comparisons 

I get that we would prefer to get a Centre but Slafkovsky appears to be far from a slug and all reports are that he is in the elite class 

Here is a line from the following story

Although he comes across as a playmaker rather than a finisher, Kotkaniemi has an excellent shot/release combination and can corral a puck in traffic and still wire it on net.

https://thehockeywriters.com/jesperi-kotkaniemi-2018-nhl-draft-prospect-profile/

There are other quotes out there saying he has a great release/shot. Like the following

https://www.the-rink.com/draft-profile-jesperi-kotkaniemi/?doing_wp_cron=1650005647.5485520362854003906250

https://www.nhl.com/blackhawks/news/draft-jesperi-kotkaniemi-profile/c-299052354

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Flames could clinch their division tonight if Edmonton loses outright in regulation. Once that happens, it would guarantee that the 1st round pick the Habs acquired from Calgary could be no better than 25th overall, as all division winners get seeded 25-28 if they are knocked out before the conference finals and 29-32 if they are in the conference finals or better.

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18 hours ago, claremont said:

really? I never heard KK have a top shot and never saw highlights where he had an nhl shot. Armia we didn’t even draft and he was 16th overall - pretty big fall off from a consensus top 5 pick of Slaf  to 16th. Lehks wasn’t big 5-11 when he was drafted at 55th overall and hardly a power forward vs Slafkovsky at 6-4 mvp of Olympics at 18 with 7 goals in 7 games. Pretty  tough comparisons 

I get that we would prefer to get a Centre but Slafkovsky appears to be far from a slug and all reports are that he is in the elite class 

Slaf may actually be the most likely player in this year's draft to one day be "elite" but he plays a less important/desirable position so i think that hurts his stock a bit.  Lets say he becomes another Svechnikov - an elite scoring winger - is that more valuable (to most teams) than a ROR type centre?   Not so sure. 

 

 

The NHL release its draft lottery odds today - im not sure if they've changed much from last year but thought id include them here for thoroughness.  (From HEOTP) 

 

022 NHL Draft Lottery odds

Seed Odds
1 18.50%
2 13.50%
3 11.50%
4 9.50%
5 8.50%
6 7.50%
7 6.50%
8 6.00%
9 5.00%
10 3.50%
11 3.00%
12 2.50%
13 2.00%
14 1.50%
15 0.50%
16 0.50%

This year, only the top two picks will be subject to the lottery, meaning that the lowest the 32nd-ranked team can draft is third overall. In addition, a team can only move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning only the bottom 11 teams are eligible to select first overall.

The odds of teams winning the second overall pick increase proportionally depending on which team wins the first lottery.

As it stands, the Canadiens are 31st in the NHL, meaning they would currently have a 13.5% of the first overall pick and would not be able to pick later than fourth.

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