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3 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

With Florida going out, a lot of Panthers' fans are talking about how bad the Chiarot trade was for them. Many hated it then and they hate it even more now. Some of the stats on Chiarot from The Score:

- Worst 5v5 shot attempts against per ice time among D men on the team

- Worst 5v5 scoring chances against per ice time among D men on the team

- Worst PK shots and shot attempts against per ice time among D men on the team

- Worst PK scoring chances, high danger scoring chances, and expected goals against per ice time among D men on the team

So basically the stats showed he was putrid defensively. Fantastic for us that we were able to extract a 2023 1st for him from Florida, but I laughed at the way teams over-value grit at the trade deadline.

 

I like Chiarot as a person & I think he's one of those heart and soul guys that will do anything he can to help his team win. Unfortunately, his toolbox is rather limited. Glad we made out so well for him though. That 1st is an excellent return on its own and Smilanic and the 4th could also end up helping us down the road. 
 

2 hours ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Yeah. I really appreciate Chiarot's effort during our Cup run, but he's not someone Florida should have been picking up this season. Nice to see some GMs continue to overvalue grit to our benefit, though! :D

As good as Chiarot looked last post season I do think some of that credit goes to his partner (Weber) who seemed to be channeling every bit of strength he had left in his broken body to play like he used to. 

 

59 minutes ago, AH64 said:

Weisse also said we should bring back Therrien as head coach.

And?  This doesnt negate the things he said about Bouchard, if true, and I see no reason for him to have made them up.

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9 hours ago, RCAF48 said:

Chiarot taking the heat for Florida's high powered offense choking. Of course the spin is dependent on the agenda you wish to advance. Chiarot played well for us and protected some of our drama princesses who wouldn't stand up for themselves. I will not kick him while he is down and I hope he does well next year. 

Yes. Big Ben is a great team player, always standing up for his teammates. Always liked him, but, unfortunate that he had to play so high up our  the lineup. Always left everything on the ice. Certainly not the reason the Panthers failed. Maybe look at some of their offensive players, or in the Tampa series,  their "inoffensive" players.

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9 hours ago, RCAF48 said:

Chiarot taking the heat for Florida's high powered offense choking. Of course the spin is dependent on the agenda you wish to advance. Chiarot played well for us and protected some of our drama princesses who wouldn't stand up for themselves. I will not kick him while he is down and I hope he does well next year. 

 

9 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

Agreed completely, Giroux a trade deadline also didn't help them over the top with all the offense he supposed to bring. This was a "team" failure from Florida. All those times Chariot was on the ice and apparently failed, I didn't see mentioned any of the other players 3 or 4 others that were on the ice with him? Florida was in most of the games. Tampa has a strong team and the experience to know how to win and a goalie that when hot is like Price when hot. Yes we get you don't like Chariot because he's not an analytical darling of a player. That said I thought Florida had a lot of those types of players and they didn't win either? 

I don't think RCAF48 was too concerned with Ben Chiarot's " analytics " He was praising BC as a great team player.

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12 hours ago, maas_art said:

And?  This doesnt negate the things he said about Bouchard, if true, and I see no reason for him to have made them up.

And? I dont think he should be speaking about coaches if hes pro Therrien who we know was bad for the kids. Yet complains Bouchard is bad for the kids?  He is biased... i listen to his podcast, the guy who i liked as a player, i do not like so much as a mouthpiece. 

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KK had a season clearly below expectations and it didn't get any better in the playoffs. After scoring 9 goals in only 29 playoff games with the Montreal Canadiens, he has 0 goals (and 1 point) in 12 playoff games in Carolina.

Remember that in the season, KK lost almost 3 full minutes of ice time per game. That's a lot! (He also lost 40 seconds of time on the power play, compared to his usage in Montreal)

Finally, he is much less used and valued in Carolina, than he was with the Habs. Here you go.

In the playoffs, in the last few days, his playing time is in free fall (around 8-9 minutes per game)

And finally, here is the statistic that strikes me the most:

 

"Jesperi Kotkaniemi: 0 goals, 1 point in playoffs. He has one goal in his last 31 games (playoffs + regular season).

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1 hour ago, kinot-2 said:

KK had a season clearly below expectations and it didn't get any better in the playoffs. After scoring 9 goals in only 29 playoff games with the Montreal Canadiens, he has 0 goals (and 1 point) in 12 playoff games in Carolina.

Remember that in the season, KK lost almost 3 full minutes of ice time per game. That's a lot! (He also lost 40 seconds of time on the power play, compared to his usage in Montreal)

Finally, he is much less used and valued in Carolina, than he was with the Habs. Here you go.

In the playoffs, in the last few days, his playing time is in free fall (around 8-9 minutes per game)

And finally, here is the statistic that strikes me the most:

 

"Jesperi Kotkaniemi: 0 goals, 1 point in playoffs. He has one goal in his last 31 games (playoffs + regular season).

Kotkaniemi is having a bad post-season, no two ways about it. That said, let's keep in mind that Carolina has way better depth than Montreal had last year and it makes more sense for JK to be fighting for his ice time if he's competing with Aho, Trocheck, Staal, Necas, and Jarvis as opposed to competing with a slumping Danault, Staal, or Byron playing out of position as a center. The issue was/is less about how many minutes he's gotten and the reason why those minutes were not given. That said, even with his limited minutes, I'd have expected JK to do more. Clearly not the progression you would have wanted from him after some decent post-season performances while in Montreal.

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15 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Kotkaniemi is having a bad post-season, no two ways about it. That said, let's keep in mind that Carolina has way better depth than Montreal had last year and it makes more sense for JK to be fighting for his ice time if he's competing with Aho, Trocheck, Staal, Necas, and Jarvis as opposed to competing with a slumping Danault, Staal, or Byron playing out of position as a center. The issue was/is less about how many minutes he's gotten and the reason why those minutes were not given. That said, even with his limited minutes, I'd have expected JK to do more. Clearly not the progression you would have wanted from him after some decent post-season performances while in Montreal.

Yeah i still think that at his age (he's going to be 22 in july) its a little tough to fully gauge him but i can see why some Carolina fans are getting a little cagey about the contract.   It could still end up being good value - if he could up his totals just 15 points a year, at just under $5m per for 8 years its going to be decent, but I'm starting to wonder if his ceiling is not where we hoped it would be 2 or 3 years ago. 

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20 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Yeah i still think that at his age (he's going to be 22 in july) its a little tough to fully gauge him but i can see why some Carolina fans are getting a little cagey about the contract.   It could still end up being good value - if he could up his totals just 15 points a year, at just under $5m per for 8 years its going to be decent, but I'm starting to wonder if his ceiling is not where we hoped it would be 2 or 3 years ago. 

FWIW, I still believe that if the Canes slot him in as their 2C next year (assuming Trocheck walks) and play him with any two of Svechnikov, Teurovainen, Jarvis, Necar, Niederreiter (if still there), or so on and he'd be fine. I think he would put up 15-20 goals and 50 points. His ceiling is probably still higher than that too. My big question is whether he ever gets that opportunity. Does Necar slide over to center and push JK down the line-up again? Does Drury or Suzuki overtake him on the depth chart? Do they re-sign Trocheck or bring in someone new who prevents JK from getting his shot? I think ultimately he has the skill to succeed, but he needs the opportunity to make it happen, and he's making it harder for Carolina to give him that shot when they're a legit Cup contender.

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30 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

FWIW, I still believe that if the Canes slot him in as their 2C next year (assuming Trocheck walks) and play him with any two of Svechnikov, Teurovainen, Jarvis, Necar, Niederreiter (if still there), or so on and he'd be fine. I think he would put up 15-20 goals and 50 points. His ceiling is probably still higher than that too. My big question is whether he ever gets that opportunity. Does Necar slide over to center and push JK down the line-up again? Does Drury or Suzuki overtake him on the depth chart? Do they re-sign Trocheck or bring in someone new who prevents JK from getting his shot? I think ultimately he has the skill to succeed, but he needs the opportunity to make it happen, and he's making it harder for Carolina to give him that shot when they're a legit Cup contender.

Yeah, definitely opportunity may be tougher in Carolina, which i guess i something that a number of us said at the time- i didnt blame him for taking the money but it may not have been in his best interest, long term, in terms of opportunity.  He will get better wingers, but there's also a number of players who could surpass him on the depth chart.  Would have loved to have seen JK get a chance under MSL. 

That said, I think you may be right. Trochet is almost certainly gone & Staal is now what, 34 to start next year?  So i think he should get a chance.  But im not totally convinced he's not a 3rd liner.   A lot of players in the nhl are good enough to be third line centres but just not quite good enough to be a consistent #2.  On our team we have Dvorak, Evans, Pitlick and maybe Poehling who all fall into that category. You could see them as #3s but #2 would be a stretch and im feeling more and more like JK is in that dept, but he certainly could prove me wrong.  He's still 2years younger than Plekanec was when he finally broke onto the NHL roster. 

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23 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, definitely opportunity may be tougher in Carolina, which i guess i something that a number of us said at the time- i didnt blame him for taking the money but it may not have been in his best interest, long term, in terms of opportunity.  He will get better wingers, but there's also a number of players who could surpass him on the depth chart.  Would have loved to have seen JK get a chance under MSL. 

That said, I think you may be right. Trochet is almost certainly gone & Staal is now what, 34 to start next year?  So i think he should get a chance.  But im not totally convinced he's not a 3rd liner.   A lot of players in the nhl are good enough to be third line centres but just not quite good enough to be a consistent #2.  On our team we have Dvorak, Evans, Pitlick and maybe Poehling who all fall into that category. You could see them as #3s but #2 would be a stretch and im feeling more and more like JK is in that dept, but he certainly could prove me wrong.  He's still 2years younger than Plekanec was when he finally broke onto the NHL roster. 

Everything you said here is true, but here's why I think JK still has the potential to be a 2C (and who knows, with some luck, maybe even a 1C)... he's actually had really great stats when he's gotten to play with better linemates, and he's largely made almost all of those players more dominant. Here's some data from this past season:

- When he played with Svechnikov, the pair posted a ridiculous 66% Corsi. Kotkaniemi without Svech was at 59% and Svech without JK was at 55%, so this wasn't Svechnikov just pulling Kotkaniemi up, it was Kotkaniemi being very strong without Svechnikov but the two of them being simply dynamite together.

- With Seth Jarvis, the pair posted a Corsi of 66%. Kotkaniemi was at 58% without Jarvis and Jarvis at 54% without Kotkaniemi.

- Teravainen was at 54% with or without Kotkaniemi and Kotkaniemi was at 60% without Teuvo.

- Pretty similar with Aho (54% for Aho with or without JK and JK at 59% without Aho).

- Niederreiter was at 63% with JK and 56% without him, while JK was 57.4% without Nino.

- Necas was 57% with JK and 52% without him, while JK was 59% without Necas.

- Staal was 67% with JK, 56.5% without him, and JK was 58.2% without Staal.

 

Bottom line is that essentially every player to play with JK had positive possession metrics with him and almost all were worse without him, so it really looks like Kotkaniemi is a player who drives the play and creates possession and chances. His most common linemate this year was Derek Stepan who was not very productive.

So now compare Kotkaniemi to another Canes' reclamation project: Teuvo Teravainen. Teravainen was a strong advanced metrics player but wasn't valued that much in Chicago. He averaged 13-15 minutes a night in Chicago, then 16 in his first year with Carolina. His first three NHL seasons produced 9 points in 34 games and then full seasons of 35 and 42 points. In 2017-18, his ice time starts to go up and he starts getting more PP time. He plays 17 minutes a night, then 18 a night in 18-19, and 19 a night in 19-20, and his point totals go up to 64, 76, and then 63 in just 68 games. So you can see a clear jump in production in his 4th season onwards that correlates nicely with ice time and opportunity.

Kotkaniemi to me is on a similar curve. He's gotten less ice than Teuvo did, averaging 12-15 minutes through his first 3.5 seasons. This year, he put up 29 points in 66 games, which is pretty much where Teuvo was with his 35 and 42 point seasons in full seasons. To me, the question now is whether he can take that next step, but a lot of that comes down to whether he gets the same boost in opportunity that Teravainen or Niederreiter or so on got when they came to Carolina. The numbers suggest that his teams dominate play when he's on the ice and that no matter where he plays up and down the line-up, his team does well and generates shots and chances. The numbers suggest that if you give him more opportunity, ice time, better linemates, some PP time, etc. that the production is going to follow. I'd almost be willing to bet on that. The problem is that the way the NHL works, many coaches demand that you prove yourself successful in a lesser role first and JK hasn't been consistent in his production in a lesser role. So will that hinder his ability to get a chance to prove himself? The one thing on his side is his 8-year deal. Carolina has the impetus to want to see him succeed. It doesn't bode well for them to keep him on the 4th line and pay him 4.8M for 8 years to play that role. So the smart move is to give him a shot. The counterpoint is that the Canes are a perennial Cup contender right now, so they may not be interested in giving tryouts to younger guys if they can sign a veteran (e.g. Giroux) to center their second line for now.

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, maas_art said:

Yeah, definitely opportunity may be tougher in Carolina, which i guess i something that a number of us said at the time- i didnt blame him for taking the money but it may not have been in his best interest, long term, in terms of opportunity.  He will get better wingers, but there's also a number of players who could surpass him on the depth chart.  Would have loved to have seen JK get a chance under MSL. 

That said, I think you may be right. Trochet is almost certainly gone & Staal is now what, 34 to start next year?  So i think he should get a chance.  But im not totally convinced he's not a 3rd liner.   A lot of players in the nhl are good enough to be third line centres but just not quite good enough to be a consistent #2.  On our team we have Dvorak, Evans, Pitlick and maybe Poehling who all fall into that category. You could see them as #3s but #2 would be a stretch and im feeling more and more like JK is in that dept, but he certainly could prove me wrong.  He's still 2years younger than Plekanec was when he finally broke onto the NHL roster. 

Even when Stall moves reties after next season, or if they don't resign Trochek after this season , there are lots of options for Carolina, Necas, Jarvis, Drury, Suzuki, all young players coming through the pipeline or already there..

This isn't going to be if he gets a chance playing on the top lines, its going to be if he earns his chance to play in the top lines. 

I already see a couple of better options in Jarvis and Necas ahead of him. 

After 237 NHL games I am not seeing any progression in his game you would like to see in a young player.

However he is still young and there is always a chance. It just looks like there are to many other options in Carolina and he is going to have to find away to elevate his own game. 

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22 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Everything you said here is true, but here's why I think JK still has the potential to be a 2C (and who knows, with some luck, maybe even a 1C)... he's actually had really great stats when he's gotten to play with better linemates, and he's largely made almost all of those players more dominant. Here's some data from this past season:

- When he played with Svechnikov, the pair posted a ridiculous 66% Corsi. Kotkaniemi without Svech was at 59% and Svech without JK was at 55%, so this wasn't Svechnikov just pulling Kotkaniemi up, it was Kotkaniemi being very strong without Svechnikov but the two of them being simply dynamite together.

- With Seth Jarvis, the pair posted a Corsi of 66%. Kotkaniemi was at 58% without Jarvis and Jarvis at 54% without Kotkaniemi.

- Teravainen was at 54% with or without Kotkaniemi and Kotkaniemi was at 60% without Teuvo.

- Pretty similar with Aho (54% for Aho with or without JK and JK at 59% without Aho).

- Niederreiter was at 63% with JK and 56% without him, while JK was 57.4% without Nino.

- Necas was 57% with JK and 52% without him, while JK was 59% without Necas.

- Staal was 67% with JK, 56.5% without him, and JK was 58.2% without Staal.

 

Bottom line is that essentially every player to play with JK had positive possession metrics with him and almost all were worse without him, so it really looks like Kotkaniemi is a player who drives the play and creates possession and chances. His most common linemate this year was Derek Stepan who was not very productive.

So now compare Kotkaniemi to another Canes' reclamation project: Teuvo Teravainen. Teravainen was a strong advanced metrics player but wasn't valued that much in Chicago. He averaged 13-15 minutes a night in Chicago, then 16 in his first year with Carolina. His first three NHL seasons produced 9 points in 34 games and then full seasons of 35 and 42 points. In 2017-18, his ice time starts to go up and he starts getting more PP time. He plays 17 minutes a night, then 18 a night in 18-19, and 19 a night in 19-20, and his point totals go up to 64, 76, and then 63 in just 68 games. So you can see a clear jump in production in his 4th season onwards that correlates nicely with ice time and opportunity.

Kotkaniemi to me is on a similar curve. He's gotten less ice than Teuvo did, averaging 12-15 minutes through his first 3.5 seasons. This year, he put up 29 points in 66 games, which is pretty much where Teuvo was with his 35 and 42 point seasons in full seasons. To me, the question now is whether he can take that next step, but a lot of that comes down to whether he gets the same boost in opportunity that Teravainen or Niederreiter or so on got when they came to Carolina. The numbers suggest that his teams dominate play when he's on the ice and that no matter where he plays up and down the line-up, his team does well and generates shots and chances. The numbers suggest that if you give him more opportunity, ice time, better linemates, some PP time, etc. that the production is going to follow. I'd almost be willing to bet on that. The problem is that the way the NHL works, many coaches demand that you prove yourself successful in a lesser role first and JK hasn't been consistent in his production in a lesser role. So will that hinder his ability to get a chance to prove himself? The one thing on his side is his 8-year deal. Carolina has the impetus to want to see him succeed. It doesn't bode well for them to keep him on the 4th line and pay him 4.8M for 8 years to play that role. So the smart move is to give him a shot. The counterpoint is that the Canes are a perennial Cup contender right now, so they may not be interested in giving tryouts to younger guys if they can sign a veteran (e.g. Giroux) to center their second line for now.

 

 

 

He could actually still get passed by Domi who now is with Carolina and Domi actually looked a lot better than JK. JK did during the playoffs get a lot of second unit PP time also. He still isn't strong along the boards 9(Maybe he'll build some upper body strength he is young still, he needs it) He also isn't making good decisions with the puck. I am one who's been watching almost every playoff game, and he has been getting inserted here and there but just never taken the opportunity and ran with it yet. 

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He's an RFA (who can only get offers from us, no less), what do you think we should give him? He's not the talents I think Suzy and Caufield are but I'd still love to lock him up long time. Am I crazy for willing to do 4x8 or something close to that if he's willing to do long term? 

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1 hour ago, habsisme said:

He's an RFA (who can only get offers from us, no less), what do you think we should give him? He's not the talents I think Suzy and Caufield are but I'd still love to lock him up long time. Am I crazy for willing to do 4x8 or something close to that if he's willing to do long term? 

 

36 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

I feel like a two-year bridge deal probably makes sense for all parties. $1.5 AAV? $2 AAV?

Bottom line for me is that he doesn't have any bargaining power right now. He's got some nice attributes, but he's still shown limited offensive ability and his instincts/hockey smarts still need some work. Right now, he's a big hitter and a decent skater, but he's more of a supporting-cast D man. Ultimately, I have more hope in Guhle, Harris, and Barron to become top 3 D men than I do Romanov. IMO, he's got a higher chance of being a player along the lines of Emelin or Josh Manson, with a top-end potential along the lines of Matt Dumba if we get really lucky.

On a short-term bridge deal, I'd agree that 1.5M-1.75M is probably fair market value for Romanov. Once you start to get into UFA years, he's probably a guy who can get 4-4.5M on the open market. Personally, I'm not sold on his being worth an 8-year contract. My ideal contract length would likely be around 6 years, and if I price out what I just wrote above for that, it would mean something along the lines of 6 years and a 3.33 to 3.5M AAV. If we identify a window to win of 3-5 years from now, it makes more sense for us to sign that type of deal now rather than a 1.5M 2-year bridge deal and then a longer-term deal thereafter with a 4-5M AAV against the cap in years when we want to have more space. So to me, a 6-year deal for that mid-range value is likely the best answer.

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18 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

 

Bottom line for me is that he doesn't have any bargaining power right now. He's got some nice attributes, but he's still shown limited offensive ability and his instincts/hockey smarts still need some work. Right now, he's a big hitter and a decent skater, but he's more of a supporting-cast D man. Ultimately, I have more hope in Guhle, Harris, and Barron to become top 3 D men than I do Romanov. IMO, he's got a higher chance of being a player along the lines of Emelin or Josh Manson, with a top-end potential along the lines of Matt Dumba if we get really lucky.

On a short-term bridge deal, I'd agree that 1.5M-1.75M is probably fair market value for Romanov. Once you start to get into UFA years, he's probably a guy who can get 4-4.5M on the open market. Personally, I'm not sold on his being worth an 8-year contract. My ideal contract length would likely be around 6 years, and if I price out what I just wrote above for that, it would mean something along the lines of 6 years and a 3.33 to 3.5M AAV. If we identify a window to win of 3-5 years from now, it makes more sense for us to sign that type of deal now rather than a 1.5M 2-year bridge deal and then a longer-term deal thereafter with a 4-5M AAV against the cap in years when we want to have more space. So to me, a 6-year deal for that mid-range value is likely the best answer.

yeah I think I have to agree with your assesment on going more for 6 years over 8. I would like to have him on a 6 year deal though, for me if it starts with a 3, I'm happy (on a 6 year deal) 

on a one (or two) year deal I definitely would stay under 2

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My reasoning for the above is look at Rasmus Anderson. Similar style player, had 2 goals 17 assists in 79 games in 19-20 and his previous 2 seasons had 0 points in 11 games. Coming out of his ELC in 19-20 he signed a 6 year extension for 4.5 Mil. Romanov 13 points in 79 games this year. I can see him costing as much as Anderson on a 6-8 year deal.

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9 minutes ago, campabee82 said:

I expect Romy's 2 year bridge to be in the 2-2.75 range and an 8 year deal costs us 4.25-5.

I could understand the 8 year deal even if its a bit too much for me, but I don't see how Romy gets that much on a 2 year deal. He has ZERO power and no one can even offer sheet him and no arbitration rights. Best he can do is sign a 1 year 1 million, or 2 year 1.5 million. He has no leverage and he's not that  important to the team. 

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^^ I mean look, the Habs gave similar 4-year 3.5M AAV deals to Edmundson, Savard, and Chiarot, and that was to eat up UFA years when they could have signed anywhere. Do I like Romanov better than that pack? Yes. But has he proven anything? Not much in the big picture of things? Are his next couple of seasons worth less because he has zero negotiating power? Yes. So if we're going 6 years on a contract and the first two years are going to have value under 2M, even if we attribute 4-5M value to the later 4 years, that's putting us into the 3-3.5M AAV range. It would be a mistake to offer 4-5M to a #4-5 D man right now. Today, that's what Romanov is. Could he end up being a solid #2-3 guy if he progresses into a Matt Dumba type player? Yes. But he could also end up being a 3rd-pairing bruiser. You can't pay for potential. If you think he's your guy long-term and you want to go 8 years without his having proven anything, that's fine, but I said this about Caufield too, you expect the guy to take a discount on that, not for you to pay him what he would earn if he reaches his maximum potential.

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Romanov hasn't shown any offensive chops yet in the NHL.   He seemingly did at the WJ's but was that because he was already playing against men in the KHL or was that because he has untapped potential.   I think its more the former.   He's essentially Emelin with better skating.    

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