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22-23 State of the Habs


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Our future looks bright but in the infamous words of Carey Price - potential means nothing until they prove they can play at this level (I am paraphrasing cause I can't remember his exact line quote lol). We will have to wait to see how the prospects play before we can say for sure we are headed in the right direction. We have a lot of great prospects but how many other "great prospects" have never made the NHL or have barely been NHL players? Hell Kakko was drafted 2nd OVA and is about to wash out of NY, same with Zadina in Detroit. So as I say the future looks bright but the present looks pretty bleak and we can't know what the future will actually bring. 

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8 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Per TSN690 and Shaun Starr:

Some Carey Price news

- Minor cleanup on knee this summer

- Is doing very well

- Expected to be healthy and start season

- Jake Allen was their # 1 pick when looking for backup

- Max games for Price is 50 games 

That's good news to hear. I hope it's true. Would love to see Carey come back healthy to begin the season.

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16 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Per TSN690 and Shaun Starr:

Some Carey Price news

- Minor cleanup on knee this summer

- Is doing very well

- Expected to be healthy and start season

- Jake Allen was their # 1 pick when looking for backup

- Max games for Price is 50 games 

Hughes stated now that there is no new update on Carey and those reports about a minor cleanup are news to him and not accurate. FWIW.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Hughes stated now that there is no new update on Carey and those reports about a minor cleanup are news to him and not accurate. FWIW.

Good to see the GM address rumours. It's been a long time since i've believed anything coming out of the front office. Look how they strung us around all year last season on Price.

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Renaud Lavoie says Habs have had talks with Rem Pitlick's side but that there has not been progress yet and he adds that he does not think the Habs think highly enough of Pitlick to give him a qualifying offer, so if there's no agreement by next week, Pitlick would become a UFA without a QO. I know some here like him, but this is music to my ears if true. I've said it many times, but Pitlick is not as good as his numbers suggested last year and his stats were padded by an unsustainable high shooting percentage. The fact the Habs have started using analytics and have maybe seen this same thing as me is so damn refreshing. Don't overpay for results, pay for what you expect/project a guy will do for you. The data suggests Pitlick will regress, so no reason to overpay there. Either he accepts your terms or you let him walk.

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4 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Renaud Lavoie says Habs have had talks with Rem Pitlick's side but that there has not been progress yet and he adds that he does not think the Habs think highly enough of Pitlick to give him a qualifying offer, so if there's no agreement by next week, Pitlick would become a UFA without a QO. I know some here like him, but this is music to my ears if true. I've said it many times, but Pitlick is not as good as his numbers suggested last year and his stats were padded by an unsustainable high shooting percentage. The fact the Habs have started using analytics and have maybe seen this same thing as me is so damn refreshing. Don't overpay for results, pay for what you expect/project a guy will do for you. The data suggests Pitlick will regress, so no reason to overpay there. Either he accepts your terms or you let him walk.

Agree with the do not overpay. Good to see our GM stick to his guns. Could open a spot for Colin White on a reasonable contract.

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1 minute ago, electron58 said:

Agree with the do not overpay. Good to see our GM stick to his guns. Could open a spot for Colin White on a reasonable contract.

I'd rather pay for White, absolutely. White is somewhat the opposite of Pitlick. He's been a strong possession player for Ottawa the past 3-4 years and his main issue has been a failure to finish at the net. His PDO has been well below 1.000 the last 4 years, which suggests there are good odds we'll see a big rebound in his stats at some point. Not to mention that if we add Wright and White, we can trade Dvorak for other assets, play Evans in the 4th line role that he's best-suited for, and move Poehling to wing.

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56 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Renaud Lavoie says Habs have had talks with Rem Pitlick's side but that there has not been progress yet and he adds that he does not think the Habs think highly enough of Pitlick to give him a qualifying offer, so if there's no agreement by next week, Pitlick would become a UFA without a QO. I know some here like him, but this is music to my ears if true. I've said it many times, but Pitlick is not as good as his numbers suggested last year and his stats were padded by an unsustainable high shooting percentage. The fact the Habs have started using analytics and have maybe seen this same thing as me is so damn refreshing. Don't overpay for results, pay for what you expect/project a guy will do for you. The data suggests Pitlick will regress, so no reason to overpay there. Either he accepts your terms or you let him walk.

I like Pitlick but I value your analysis and see your point. My issue is that... are you really going to just let him walk? How much could it possibly cost them to qualify him and just give him another year? His cap hit would be negligible. I don't get it. He did SOMETHING, I get that it may be all smoke and mirrors but I gotta at least give him a chance

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5 minutes ago, habsisme said:

I like Pitlick but I value your analysis and see your point. My issue is that... are you really going to just let him walk? How much could it possibly cost them to qualify him and just give him another year? His cap hit would be negligible. I don't get it. He did SOMETHING, I get that it may be all smoke and mirrors but I gotta at least give him a chance

Yeah, his QO would be in the range of 964k, so you're right that it's not a lot. But I guess the question is whether we need to do it. I don't know for sure but it could be that he ends up being a UFA at the end of that one-year deal if he signs it, so if he does have a good year, then you're stuck again. But ultimately, I just don't see a player with great value. The guy scored 15 goals in 66 games and did that with a shooting percentage well over 20%. If his shooting percentage were to regress to a league mean of about 8%, then it means he would have scored about 5 goals. Put another way, based purely on Pitlick's level of play and the chances he had, we would have expected Pitlick to score 5 goals. So is he really that talented a shooter that he's going to continue to shoot at a high shooting percentage going forward or is he going to regress like most players (especially bottom 6 players) do? Exhibit A would be Paul Byron, who wowed us with a 22% shooting percentage his first two years here but has shot 11-13% the last 3 years. Suddenly a 22 goal scorer has become a 10-12 goal scorer (pro-rated over a full season). So history tells us the odds are that Pitlick is most likely at 10-15 goal scorer going forward.

Now sure, you can say that 10-15 goals is something, but let's also keep in mind that Pitlick provides very little else. He was one of the worst possession players on the team at 41% Corsi 5v5 last year. He isn't very good defensively. He's small. He isn't the fastest skater either, and he put up his point totals with favorable zone starts and PP time. So would I rather get 10-15 goals from Pitlick, or would I rather get those from a Ryan Poehling, who can provide some physical presence and do a better job playing center than Pitlick? Or would I rather get those goals from Jake Evans, who can play center, play the PK, skate better, and do a nice job on the forecheck? Or Joel Armia, who provides size, puck protection, and penalty kill ability? Or RHP, who brings more energy and better skill for a 4th liner? I know we're likely to see some roster movement, but as it stands right now, we could see something along the lines of

Caufield-Suzuki-Anderson

Drouin-Dvorak-Dadonov

Hoffman-Poehling-Gallagher

RHP-Evans-Armia

And that's without including Ylonen, Pezzetta, Wright or Slafkovksy if they earn a spot, or Byron when healthy. I don't see Pitlick as being talented enough to play in the top 6 and I don't see him as being well-rounded enough to be a good option in the bottom 6. I'd much rather see RHP and Ylonen given spots in the line-up to be honest, so I don't see a role for Pitlick. His one claim to being in the conversation for a roster spot was as a goal-scorer, and my point was that even that is an over-estimate of his worth. So I'm glad the Habs may have recognized they shouldn't pay him as a 20-goal scorer.

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2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Renaud Lavoie says Habs have had talks with Rem Pitlick's side but that there has not been progress yet and he adds that he does not think the Habs think highly enough of Pitlick to give him a qualifying offer, so if there's no agreement by next week, Pitlick would become a UFA without a QO. I know some here like him, but this is music to my ears if true. I've said it many times, but Pitlick is not as good as his numbers suggested last year and his stats were padded by an unsustainable high shooting percentage. The fact the Habs have started using analytics and have maybe seen this same thing as me is so damn refreshing. Don't overpay for results, pay for what you expect/project a guy will do for you. The data suggests Pitlick will regress, so no reason to overpay there. Either he accepts your terms or you let him walk.

"Is not as good as his numbers suggested". So when are we supposed to believe in the advanced stats? When it suits our bias? I've seen far too many suggested because of whats goinging  to happen because of advanced stats'. Advanced stats are just another tool for guessing and excuse when it doesn't happen.

 

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7 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

"Is not as good as his numbers suggested". So when are we supposed to believe in the advanced stats? When it suits our bias? I've seen far too many suggested because of whats goinging  to happen because of advanced stats'. Advanced stats are just another tool for guessing and excuse when it doesn't happen.

 

Stats tell you what a player has done, and advanced stats are useful for predicting what they're likely to do in the future.

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1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

Stats tell you what a player has done, and advanced stats are useful for predicting what they're likely to do in the future.

So you want us to start paying for what a guy might do, instead of paying for what he has done? That's (no offense) ass backwards. How much would you have given Galchenyuk or KK who were both advanced stats darlings or Gallagher who has never had great advanced stats but did score 30 goals despite that. Like CaptWelly said advanced stats are a tool for predicting what a player might do, that doesn't mean they will do it though. The NHL is a what have you done for me lately league, we can't adopt the mentality of what might you do for me in the future. If that happens salaries will explode exponentially. We probably would have matched the KK offersheet based on his advanced stats and Galchenyuk would have been making like 4-6 mil based on his. It is a very dangerous rabbit hole to go down to start paying players on what they might do and not what they have actually accomplished. I wouldn't sign Pitlick for more than you can bury but I believe he should at least be given a shot to prove this year was not just a fluke. It is consistency and ability that should be the main focus when looking at contracts not one years worth of stats or their advanced stats. I don't know for sure but my gut says that if you look back through the history of the sport, you will find many players who didn't have great advanced stats but still went on to have great careers. Guys like Patrick Kane, Chris Letang, Phil Kessel and Shea Weber among others had bad advanced stats but still were great players despite them. The point is we shouldn't just discard players who have bad advanced stats because you never know which ones are the Kessel's or Letang's or Weber's, you have to use them as an additional tool when evaluating what a player has done already. 

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12 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

I'd rather pay for White, absolutely. White is somewhat the opposite of Pitlick. He's been a strong possession player for Ottawa the past 3-4 years and his main issue has been a failure to finish at the net. His PDO has been well below 1.000 the last 4 years, which suggests there are good odds we'll see a big rebound in his stats at some point. 

Whites main issue is he’s an injury waiting to happen 🤣😂

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Yeah i dont buy the news about Pitlick. I like him but am fully aware of what he is: A younger, cheaper Paul Byron. He's not a "difference maker" on his own but could be a good cog in the system.  Why wouldnt you want that on your team? 

His QO would be under $1m.  He's played 77 NHL games and has 39 points.   Dont want him on your roster? Fine. But why on earth would you let him walk?  Sign him, trade him. I'd be shocked if Hughes just lets an asset leave for nothing.  Now, its entirely possible Rem and his agent think he's worth some crazy money after his 26 points in 46 games with the habs, but that doesnt mean you dont qualify him.  Give him the QO, if you have to go to arbitration, fine - if that doesnt work out then you can walk away if its really an issue.  No real immediacy to the whole situation.   

Considering how they used him last year I dont buy the whole "dont think highly of him" garbage from Lavoie. Sounds more like Lavoie doesnt like him & therefore is projecting. We shall see. 

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4 hours ago, campabee82 said:

So you want us to start paying for what a guy might do, instead of paying for what he has done? That's (no offense) ass backwards. How much would you have given Galchenyuk or KK who were both advanced stats darlings or Gallagher who has never had great advanced stats but did score 30 goals despite that. Like CaptWelly said advanced stats are a tool for predicting what a player might do, that doesn't mean they will do it though. The NHL is a what have you done for me lately league, we can't adopt the mentality of what might you do for me in the future. If that happens salaries will explode exponentially. We probably would have matched the KK offersheet based on his advanced stats and Galchenyuk would have been making like 4-6 mil based on his. It is a very dangerous rabbit hole to go down to start paying players on what they might do and not what they have actually accomplished. I wouldn't sign Pitlick for more than you can bury but I believe he should at least be given a shot to prove this year was not just a fluke. It is consistency and ability that should be the main focus when looking at contracts not one years worth of stats or their advanced stats. I don't know for sure but my gut says that if you look back through the history of the sport, you will find many players who didn't have great advanced stats but still went on to have great careers. Guys like Patrick Kane, Chris Letang, Phil Kessel and Shea Weber among others had bad advanced stats but still were great players despite them. The point is we shouldn't just discard players who have bad advanced stats because you never know which ones are the Kessel's or Letang's or Weber's, you have to use them as an additional tool when evaluating what a player has done already. 

I agree and have said for the game of hockey advanced stats you really have to take with a grain of salt as they say. The team a player is playing on their utilization can make all the difference in the world. If a player is asked to play a defensive role or doesn't get much PP time especially first unit. A player can have a couple of great offensive years, and everyone falls in love with them and their stats look great. That said they may not be a player you can count on defending a close lead or takes a stupid chance(selfish) at the wrong time. Some players will block shots and be great team players when needed. Everything i've read recently about helping the younger guys and being a team player over advancing his own stat, actually make me want the team to draft Wright. He really seems like a leader and a player you can build around.

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