2023 NHL Entry Draft

[BigTed3]

Since we're not likely to be a playoff team and we have two 1st round picks already, I figured it's not too early to kickstart this discussion.

Next year's draft is looking to be a strong one. You have your Bedard, your Michkov, and your Fantilli, but the Hlinka Gretzky Cup just ended and there are a few guys who were already mocked to the first half of the 1st round who had impressive performances. The top standout was probably Brayden Yager, a right-handed center, who looked terrific. Calum Ritchie is another RH center who put up big offensive numbers. Zach Benson from the Winnipeg Ice, already thought to be better than Savoie and Geekie, also had a nice tournament. Add that to Charlie Stramel and Will Smith of the US, Dalibor Dvorsky from Slovakia, Kasper Halttunen of Finland, and others and the top 7-10 picks could all be very strong. The one deficiency that's clear so far is that all the top prospects are forwards. If we finish bottom 5, we should have good odds at getting a top 6 center. But it'll be hard to find a D man. Cameron Allen is the one D man who improved his stock from the Hlinka and might have a chance at breaking the top 5-10. We all know D men tend to move up the closer we get to the draft, but it's really looking like a cohort of elite scoring centers.

[claremont]

On 8/6/2022 at 9:23 PM, BigTed3 said:

Since we're not likely to be a playoff team and we have two 1st round picks already, I figured it's not too early to kickstart this discussion.

Next year's draft is looking to be a strong one. You have your Bedard, your Michkov, and your Fantilli, but the Hlinka Gretzky Cup just ended and there are a few guys who were already mocked to the first half of the 1st round who had impressive performances. The top standout was probably Brayden Yager, a right-handed center, who looked terrific. Calum Ritchie is another RH center who put up big offensive numbers. Zach Benson from the Winnipeg Ice, already thought to be better than Savoie and Geekie, also had a nice tournament. Add that to Charlie Stramel and Will Smith of the US, Dalibor Dvorsky from Slovakia, Kasper Halttunen of Finland, and others and the top 7-10 picks could all be very strong. The one deficiency that's clear so far is that all the top prospects are forwards. If we finish bottom 5, we should have good odds at getting a top 6 center. But it'll be hard to find a D man. Cameron Allen is the one D man who improved his stock from the Hlinka and might have a chance at breaking the top 5-10. We all know D men tend to move up the closer we get to the draft, but it's really looking like a cohort of elite scoring centers.

Agree on the hard to find a D man especially a RHD. We have to hope that our big IF's - Barron and Logan Mailloux can show some degree of ascending trajectory in their game, or alternatively one of our Lefties is able to compensate. RHD Cameron Allen - certainly one to keep a watch on. Michkov got Emelin'd in the KHL and various reports - out for 2 weeks vs months on lower body injury so we will see how that affects his ranking. 

Although we should draft BPA, with the argument that they are trade chips, RHD depth is a strong need. I look around the other NHL rosters and there are not that many teams with RHD prospect depth (with a blocked RHD roster limiting their opportunities), that we could trade for. I suspect that we could take a crack at Matt Dumba (I know you like him), as a UFA next year.

Roster findings - LA Kings have 2 nice RHD prospects in Brandt Clarke, and Helge Grans with Drew Doughty, Sean Durzi, Matt Roy / Sean Walker ahead on the roster and have to figure one of them succeeds Doughty. Maybe Washington parts with Ryan Chesley or Vincent Iorio as Carlson as RHD locked up for a few years - You heard it here first - Nicklas Backstom is virtually done on his career. Islanders have Pulock and Dobson on their RHD but no further RHD prospects. Same for Penguins with Letang and Petry locked up. Jersey has Hamilton, Marino locked up and Nemec on thei horizon - but their prospects Reilly Walsh and Shakir Mukhamdullin may not have top level ceilings and are maybes as a trade partner. Rangers solid at RHD with Fox, Trouba locked up and Braden Schneider, but no other RHD prospects. Columbus locked up Gudbranson, Boqvist, and emerging Jiricek - maybe they part with Corson Ceulemans. Does come down to what we could offer those teams in trade material - Capitals will need a centre to replace Backstorm - I think they will take a crack at Kadri - doubt they would take Dvorak. 

An RHD top pairing D man may be tough to trade for. If Nemec ascends quickly and Slaf is not a game changer, kind of makes our drafting decision look short sighted. 

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, claremont said:

An RHD top pairing D man may be tough to trade for. If Nemec ascends quickly and Slaf is not a game changer, kind of makes our drafting decision look short sighted. 

Unless Slaf becomes the next Ovechkin or Jagr - and/or - the other top prospects (Nemec, Cooley, Wright etc) all flame out, it is going to look short sighted.  I think even if he turns into a solid 70-80 point winger, it was the wrong choice, if any of those 3 turn into first line/top pairing guys because positionally its more important.  Id take the 60 point centre over the 70 point winger.  I know that this may still turn out fine, if, for example, we win the lottery again this year & draft Bedard, but guys like Cooley and Nemec and Wright were right there for the taking. 

I think HuGo are banking on Dach rebounding in a huge way and I think they believe that will take some of the sting out of losing one of those other guys, but its definitely a gamble.

That said, Im ok with what management has done so far. We've been screaming for a GM with a "plan" for years - we have one now, and while it may not work out, im willing to let him do his thing & show us. 

[BigTed3]

The Panthers and Paul Maurice have hired Sylvain Lefebvre as an assistant coach. I decided to post that information here in the draft thread and I'll let you figure out why.

[maas_art]

7 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

The Panthers and Paul Maurice have hired Sylvain Lefebvre as an assistant coach. I decided to post that information here in the draft thread and I'll let you figure out why.

OMG this is great news.   Unprotected too!!

[AH64]

Bedard is not locked at number 1 is what i am hearing from a lot of scouts. 

[BigTed3]

9 minutes ago, maas_art said:

OMG this is great news.   Unprotected too!!

At some point, the Panthers are going to experiment with Marc Staal and Radko Gudas on the powerplay.

[BigTed3]

9 minutes ago, AH64 said:

Bedard is not locked at number 1 is what i am hearing from a lot of scouts. 

Maybe not. Things can change. He's small but he's a very strong skater and he has one of the best shots ever for a draft-eligible player. And frankly, even if we end up with a top 5 pick of our own and another lottery pick from Florida (best-case scenario), the draft is deep enough this year that we could walk out with two elite players. Guys like Fantilli, Yager, Benson, Ritchie, Michkov, Dvorsky, Sale, Carlsson, Heidt, etc. they all have a reasonable shot at becoming top 6 forwards and maybe even top-line players. So if the Habs can add one or maybe even two of those to the stable of guys we have now, that's huge.

[maas_art]

19 minutes ago, AH64 said:

Bedard is not locked at number 1 is what i am hearing from a lot of scouts. 

For sure. This time last year Wright was still consider a potential generational talent.   A lot can change in a year but it still looks like there's going to be a ton of talent in next year's draft so the more 1st rounders we have - and the more that are higher - the better off we will be. 

 

7 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Maybe not. Things can change. He's small but he's a very strong skater and he has one of the best shots ever for a draft-eligible player. And frankly, even if we end up with a top 5 pick of our own and another lottery pick from Florida (best-case scenario), the draft is deep enough this year that we could walk out with two elite players. Guys like Fantilli, Yager, Benson, Ritchie, Michkov, Dvorsky, Sale, Carlsson, Heidt, etc. they all have a reasonable shot at becoming top 6 forwards and maybe even top-line players. So if the Habs can add one or maybe even two of those to the stable of guys we have now, that's huge.

Agree. Way too early to tell but the early projections are that guys like Slafkovsky, Wright, Cooley and Nemec would all likely not be top 5 picks in next year's draft.  At least thats the thinking now - but it could change a lot by next year. 

[BigTed3]

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

For sure. This time last year Wright was still consider a potential generational talent.   A lot can change in a year but it still looks like there's going to be a ton of talent in next year's draft so the more 1st rounders we have - and the more that are higher - the better off we will be. 

 

Agree. Way too early to tell but the early projections are that guys like Slafkovsky, Wright, Cooley and Nemec would all likely not be top 5 picks in next year's draft.  At least thats the thinking now - but it could change a lot by next year. 

Yeah, hard to know how things will play out over the next year, but if the 2023 draftees were eligible to be picked at this past draft, I'd have to think Bedard, Michkov, and Fantilli would have been 1-2-3 in some order. Past that, there's likely more individual preference involved, but I'd venture Nemec might still be in the top 5 if only because teams tend to note the rarity of RHD and the fact that the 2023 crop has almost no top-tier defencemen. So Nemec's value likely goes up for that reason. Otherwise, I agree with the point you made.

[HabsAlways]

On 8/10/2022 at 1:49 PM, maas_art said:

For sure. This time last year Wright was still consider a potential generational talent.   A lot can change in a year but it still looks like there's going to be a ton of talent in next year's draft so the more 1st rounders we have - and the more that are higher - the better off we will be. 

Wright would also not be top 5 next year ... the term generational is too freely thrown out by Canadian media, specifically the Ontario centric media.    Wright was never considered a generational player, elite possibly, but not generational.   Even last year CHL results, 1.49 PPG ... McDavid's last year, 2.55 PPG.  Kirby Dach 1.18 ... over the 70 game schedule they typically play ... McDavid 179pts, Wright 104pts, Dach 83pts ... who's closer in Talent based on that alone ... McD and Wright, or Wright and Dach?  75pts between McD and Wright ... 21 between Wright and Dach. 

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, HabsAlways said:

Wright would also not be top 5 next year ... the term generational is too freely thrown out by Canadian media, specifically the Ontario centric media.    Wright was never considered a generational player, elite possibly, but not generational.   Even last year CHL results, 1.49 PPG ... McDavid's last year, 2.55 PPG.  Kirby Dach 1.18 ... over the 70 game schedule they typically play ... McDavid 179pts, Wright 104pts, Dach 83pts ... who's closer in Talent based on that alone ... McD and Wright, or Wright and Dach?  75pts between McD and Wright ... 21 between Wright and Dach. 

I think when he was awarded exceptional status, had 39 goals and 66 points in 55 games as a 15 year old & then 14 points in 5 games at the WJC pundits were saying he was potentially generational.

I think since then its become apparent that he developed earlier than most so that helped pad his stats when he was younger but for a time, i think many were staying he *might* be generational.   I agree with you that its thrown around too freely.  By definition it should be one in a generation (although sometimes you get concurrent guys like Gretzky and Lemieux, Crosby and Ovechkin etc)

[HabsRuleForever]

Hat trick for Bedard today.

[BigTed3]

9 hours ago, HabsRuleForever said:

Hat trick for Bedard today.

Future Hab! I can see us playing him on a line with Shane Wright.

[BigTed3]

NHL Central Scouting released its list of Players To Watch today, a compilation of the 28 players is has thus far given 1st-round grades to. Among them are 23 forwards, 3 D men, and 2 goaltenders. 19 are playing in North America and 9 in Europe.

My preliminary top 10 for now (based on very cursory looks at what they've done) would be

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Michkov

4. Yager

5. Sale

6. Dvorsky

7. Benson

8. Carlsson

9. Allen

10. Ritchie

Some really exciting forward prospects here. To me, there's a large drop off from 1 to the next 3, then another drop-off after Yager. I'd love to get #1 of course but a top 4 pick in next year's draft would still be great, if we're trying not to be greedy. Still doesn't help us addressing our need for a 1 RHD nor a future starting goalie, but maybe that's where the Florida pick comes in if it's in the second half of the round.

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, BigTed3 said:

NHL Central Scouting released its list of Players To Watch today, a compilation of the 28 players is has thus far given 1st-round grades to. Among them are 23 forwards, 3 D men, and 2 goaltenders. 19 are playing in North America and 9 in Europe.

My preliminary top 10 for now (based on very cursory looks at what they've done) would be

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Michkov

4. Yager

5. Sale

6. Dvorsky

7. Benson

8. Carlsson

9. Allen

10. Ritchie

Some really exciting forward prospects here. To me, there's a large drop off from 1 to the next 3, then another drop-off after Yager. I'd love to get #1 of course but a top 4 pick in next year's draft would still be great, if we're trying not to be greedy. Still doesn't help us addressing our need for a 1 RHD nor a future starting goalie, but maybe that's where the Florida pick comes in if it's in the second half of the round.

Crazy that Fantilli is leading all players in the NCAA. Thats almost unheard of as a rookie. I dont even think a freshman made it into the top 20 last year.  He's got 15 points in 6 NCAA games, mostly against kids that are 19-21 years old.  He just turned 18 like 10 days ago.  

Obviously id love Bedard but i think Fantilli would be an amazing consolation prize (as would Michkov or Yager) 

[claremont]

2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

NHL Central Scouting released its list of Players To Watch today, a compilation of the 28 players is has thus far given 1st-round grades to. Among them are 23 forwards, 3 D men, and 2 goaltenders. 19 are playing in North America and 9 in Europe.

My preliminary top 10 for now (based on very cursory looks at what they've done) would be

1. Bedard

2. Fantilli

3. Michkov

4. Yager

5. Sale

6. Dvorsky

7. Benson

8. Carlsson

9. Allen

10. Ritchie

Some really exciting forward prospects here. To me, there's a large drop off from 1 to the next 3, then another drop-off after Yager. I'd love to get #1 of course but a top 4 pick in next year's draft would still be great, if we're trying not to be greedy. Still doesn't help us addressing our need for a 1 RHD nor a future starting goalie, but maybe that's where the Florida pick comes in if it's in the second half of the round.

 

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

Crazy that Fantilli is leading all players in the NCAA. Thats almost unheard of as a rookie. I dont even think a freshman made it into the top 20 last year.  He's got 15 points in 6 NCAA games, mostly against kids that are 19-21 years old.  He just turned 18 like 10 days ago.  

Obviously id love Bedard but i think Fantilli would be an amazing consolation prize (as would Michkov or Yager) 

I expect there will be quite a bit of movement in the middle tier - I just salivate at the idea of getting a Bedard, or event the sizeable Fantilli to play the centre spot amongst Suzuki, Dach, and the sleeper Owen Beck. I am less enamoured with Michkov - only because of the Russian wait / extraction process. 

I want to keep my eye on Cameron Allen OHL Guelph, only because of need at RHD (a top OHL rookie last year) and this draft is stacked with offensive forward talent. My current solid picks around 10-15 level are  - LW Colby Barlow (Owen Sound) and C - Calum Ritchie Oshawa (I make no secret that I am partial to OHL players and even the WHL or QMJHL). So I will also follow C - Ethan Gauthier who plays with Joshua Roy in Sherbrooke. A 2nd rounder - RHD Hunter Brzustewicz - a former USNTDP who committed and then withdrew from U of Michigan in favour of the kitchener rangers (just so he could play with Mesar - ok just kidding on the Mesar part)

[CaptWelly]

By the way things are shaking out at least early in the season. It could be the Western Conference gets all the top picks next year. 

[BigTed3]

Scott Wheeler of The Athletic just published his top 64 prospect list for the draft, and I really enjoy reading what he writes about future draftees... I won't give away the whole list but a few points that were of interest to me:

1. His top 11 players were all forwards, and his top D man wasn't Cameron Allen.

2. He said Michkov and Fantilli are good enough that they would have been 1st overall in any of the last 3 drafts, so better than Slafkovsky, Power, or Lafreniere.

3. He says Slafkovsky, Cooley, and Wright would all fall into a grouping of players he currently ranks between 5th and 11th in the upcoming draft, so for him those 3 guys would be among the top 14 picks this year but not even a given they'd be top 10 choices.

4. States this draft is as strong a draft as he's seen since 2015, and many feel it may end up being better. As a reminder, 2015 brought us McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Rantanen, Werenski, Chabot, Connor, Barzal, and Aho among others. A lot of draft pundits think there will be at least 10-12 star players who come out of this draft too (albeit not necessarily the top 10 taken).

All that said, this draft is shaping up to be special. Lots of guys here who have great shots at becoming top line forwards... so all the more reason for us to be trying to move forwards out.

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

He said Michkov and Fantilli are good enough that they would have been 1st overall in any of the last 3 drafts, so better than Slafkovsky, Power, or Lafreniere.

At the end of the day I think Bedard will be the best player from this draft but man Fantilli is scary-good.  Continues to lead the NCAA - 18points in 8 games as a rookie. This is almost unheard of.  The leaderboard in college hockey is almost always sophomores, juniors and seniors.  To see a freshman in the top 20 is unusual. To be leading? And with those stats?  Crazy town.

2 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

States this draft is as strong a draft as he's seen since 2015, and many feel it may end up being better. As a reminder, 2015 brought us McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Rantanen, Werenski, Chabot, Connor, Barzal, and Aho among others. A lot of draft pundits think there will be at least 10-12 star players who come out of this draft too (albeit not necessarily the top 10 taken).

Really happy that Hughes has said publicly he hopes for at least 1 more 1st rounder in 2023.  

[BigTed3]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

At the end of the day I think Bedard will be the best player from this draft but man Fantilli is scary-good.  Continues to lead the NCAA - 18points in 8 games as a rookie. This is almost unheard of.  The leaderboard in college hockey is almost always sophomores, juniors and seniors.  To see a freshman in the top 20 is unusual. To be leading? And with those stats?  Crazy town.

Really happy that Hughes has said publicly he hopes for at least 1 more 1st rounder in 2023.  

Bedard looks generational, but frankly, Fantilli looks pretty damn close to that too. Could be like getting Malkin after Ovechkin. Both guys look like they're going to be star 1C's. And then you have Michkov, who is equally as talented but a winger and caught up in the whole Russia thing. And then past that, you STILL have guys like Yager, Carlsson, Benson, Sale, Dvorsky, Ritchie, Smith, and more. Now there are clearly tiers of players here, but there's no doubt a lot of teams will fill huge organizational gaps in this draft. And as I said, the draft is equally deep, so the crop of talent at the top is pushing others down into the teens who would ordinarily have gone top 10 and guys into the 20s who would have gone teens. If the Habs end up with say a 7th overall choice and a 20th overall, it might well be equivalent to having had a 3rd overall and a 12th overall in last year's draft.

[electron58]

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

At the end of the day I think Bedard will be the best player from this draft but man Fantilli is scary-good.  Continues to lead the NCAA - 18points in 8 games as a rookie. This is almost unheard of.  The leaderboard in college hockey is almost always sophomores, juniors and seniors.  To see a freshman in the top 20 is unusual. To be leading? And with those stats?  Crazy town.

Really happy that Hughes has said publicly he hopes for at least 1 more 1st rounder in 2023.  

Might be harder than ever, to get another first round pick.  The cat's outta the bag now, so to speak!

[claremont]

9 hours ago, electron58 said:

Might be harder than ever, to get another first round pick.  The cat's outta the bag now, so to speak!

Somewhat true but if you are a contender with good chances to win the cup, giving up a 1st rounder is easy if you think it puts you over the top. Especially if you have a reasonable prospect pool. 
Realistically there’s only 3 tradeable players on our roster, who could fetch a 1st rounder. For me it’s ; 1) Joel Edmundson who if healthy is a bargain contract, 2) Josh Anderson as a power forward who we would likely have to give salary retention and 3) Sean Monahan who would require only this year salary retention which is irrelevant to our cap. Maybe a fourth with Jake Allen if someone had goalie trouble but not sure that’s happening given his extension. 
I can’t see anyone giving a first rounder for Drouin, Hoffman, Dadonov, Armia no matter how much salary we retained. 
Now which teams ; 1) Bruins, Colorado , Pittsburgh but usually stingy on 1st round pick 2) Carolina - still has KK bad sentiments hangover 3) Calgary , Oilers , Leafs , st Louis , Vegas, Washington, Winnipeg, maybe Nashville  4) Rangers already have 2 first round picks 
Florida, Dallas, TBay do not have a 2023 first  rounder. Devils still too young and not ready imo 

[maas_art]

1 hour ago, claremont said:

Somewhat true but if you are a contender with good chances to win the cup, giving up a 1st rounder is easy if you think it puts you over the top. Especially if you have a reasonable prospect pool. 

True. only a team like the Laffs* starts thinking about tanking for a high pick when they have Marner, Matthews, Tavares, Nylander etc on their roster. 

 

(* in fairness, its only their fans that have suggested it, but its TO so im laying blame on all of them )

[BigTed3]

3 hours ago, claremont said:

Somewhat true but if you are a contender with good chances to win the cup, giving up a 1st rounder is easy if you think it puts you over the top. Especially if you have a reasonable prospect pool. 
Realistically there’s only 3 tradeable players on our roster, who could fetch a 1st rounder. For me it’s ; 1) Joel Edmundson who if healthy is a bargain contract, 2) Josh Anderson as a power forward who we would likely have to give salary retention and 3) Sean Monahan who would require only this year salary retention which is irrelevant to our cap. Maybe a fourth with Jake Allen if someone had goalie trouble but not sure that’s happening given his extension. 
I can’t see anyone giving a first rounder for Drouin, Hoffman, Dadonov, Armia no matter how much salary we retained. 
Now which teams ; 1) Bruins, Colorado , Pittsburgh but usually stingy on 1st round pick 2) Carolina - still has KK bad sentiments hangover 3) Calgary , Oilers , Leafs , st Louis , Vegas, Washington, Winnipeg, maybe Nashville  4) Rangers already have 2 first round picks 
Florida, Dallas, TBay do not have a 2023 first  rounder. Devils still too young and not ready imo 

Largely agreed with you. If you're a contender and you think you're drafting 20-32 in the first round, you're probably not all that perturbed by the fact that Bedard and Fantilli and Michkov are sitting there at the top of the round. The question for you is whether a guy with a 50% shot at the NHL in 3-5 years is worth more to you than an established player who can help you today. Those teams that feel they're right there will make those trades regardless.

As for possible players we could deal for 1st's, I would agree with the 3 guys on your list:

1. Edmundson is probably going to be as hot a commodity as Chiarot was last year, maybe even moreso given he's a more complete player and won a Cup with Stl on top of his trip to the finals with the Habs. A guy who has recently been to two Cups will be seen as a key veteran leader and can slot in as a #4 guy and PK stalwart on a contender. Savard went to TB for a 1st and more. Chiarot went for a 1st and more. I think Edmundson is just as valuable as those guys, so a 1st rounder would be the minimum I'd be asking for here.

2. Anderson is also a guy who has a lot of value around the league. He's less of a deadline pick-up given the term on his deal, but that being said, there are teams in the past couple of years that have made it clear they prefer term over rentals if they're parting with a first rounder, so it's in play. TB went after Hagel last year. Was went after Mantha in the past.

3. Monahan has re-established himself coming back from injury and he has the versatility of playing anywhere in the top 6. He's currently showing he can play well enough to be a factor, and a top 6 center as insurance should IMO largely garner something close to what Claude Giroux got last year, assuming Monahan maintains a solid level of play the rest of the way. A team in injury trouble at center might well pay for him.

But I'll also add two more names to your list:

4. Drouin isn't anywhere close to garnering a 1st right now and the odds of his getting there are slim. But... he clearly has the talent to produce and he's on an expiring contract, which means the Habs can theoretically retain salary and offer another team a 50-60 point player for under 3M and then further pro-rated depending on when in the season he gets traded. Sam Bennett a couple of years ago was another former top 5 choice who had disappointed and he was still dealt for a 2nd and Emil Heineman. Yes, Bennett is a center, but the premise was similar and the return was still good. We have to remember Drouin is still only 27. So a team getting him could have him on the cheap this year and have an option to bring him back next year with negotiating rights. The odds of this are small, but I don't think it's fully off the table that Drouin fetches a 1st. As I posted a few days ago, this is why I would be propping up Drouin and ignoring Dadonov and Hoffman.

5. Dvorak is a player who I don't think fits into the team's vision for the future. He was a Bergevin acquisition, but I get the feeling HuGo see him as a good 3C and not the top 6 center Bergevin viewed him as. Nevertheless, the rumors around the NHL are that he hasn't really lost any value in the eyes of many GMs since being traded to us, and at that point, he returned a 1st and a 2nd. You can look at a player who fills a similar role in JG Pageau, and he brought back a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in a deadline deal. There will be teams looking for centers, especially ones who can play in any situation for the playoffs, and a 26-year old on a reasonable contract could be a hot commodity too.