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Bedard Sweepstake


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I thought we were already out of the running after our solid start but the guys have been doing a tremendous job getting back in to the race :ph34r:

Now, if Florida could just kindly keep underperforming for the rest of the season... (not counting on it)

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So here's an interesting thought - if one is being critical of Bedard, what is his weakest skill or attribute?

As one of the younger players even in his draft year (as the cutoff for draft players is 18 before September 15), some players have 6-9 months of growth on him

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21 minutes ago, claremont said:

So here's an interesting thought - if one is being critical of Bedard, what is his weakest skill or attribute?

As one of the younger players even in his draft year (as the cutoff for draft players is 18 before September 15), some players have 6-9 months of growth on him

I have no idea. I know so little about prospects and their development. But he really looked quite good at the WJC. That was the first time I've ever seen him play. He looked much better than everyone else on the ice. Would be so excited to have him in Montreal.

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

So here's an interesting thought - if one is being critical of Bedard, what is his weakest skill or attribute?

As one of the younger players even in his draft year (as the cutoff for draft players is 18 before September 15), some players have 6-9 months of growth on him

I'm not critical of Bedard at all, but I actually haven't really seen him play much outside of WJC highlights and some other clips. Fantastic stats and achievements though and based on what I've read, the only "knock" on him seems to be that some think he could possibly end up as a winger in the NHL (McKenzie for example). It's a possibility but nothing that would keep me from drafting the guy of course.

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2 hours ago, claremont said:

So here's an interesting thought - if one is being critical of Bedard, what is his weakest skill or attribute?

As one of the younger players even in his draft year (as the cutoff for draft players is 18 before September 15), some players have 6-9 months of growth on him

Honestly he has virtually no weaknesses in his game.  He's got vision like i havent seen since...crosby?   The only part of his game that isnt super refined is defensive but a) virtually no ones is at that age/league b) he's too busy scoring to worry.  

The *only* knock i could see is that maybe his vision wont look quite as good at the NHL level but considering he's been dominating against much older players for ages, I dont think that will end up being an issue. 

The term generational talent gets used far too often but he is 99% one. 

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Watching the World Juniors , I did notice when the games were tight and protecting the leads he wasn't on the ice near as much and he wasn't put out to win the critical face offs? Usually in junior ranks though they don't really stress defensive play that much and face offs is something that can be worked on. 

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25 minutes ago, H_T_L said:

I've only seen the kid play in tournaments but he's night and day over a guy like Wright whom i didn't see what all the hype was about.

Wright reminds me a lot of Kyle Chipchura. 

Could go either way at this stage.  Has all the tools to be an NHLer but will it be an impact guy or a bottom six defensive specialist? I think Wright has more vision and skill but he also didnt dominate in junior as one would expect.  I think we might have dodged a bullet with wright even though i think Jiricek or Nemec may come back to haunt us. 

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Wright isn't Bedard, however he is a solid 200 ft player with good leadership qualities and IMO will be a NHL top 6 forward so I'm not sure that we dodged a bullet but Slaf is our guy and although he is also not a "Bedard" I really hope he becomes a top 6 forward for us. 

As for the simulated draft above; no I can't imagine.................. :(. My first one had us picking 7th & 10th, second one 6th and 10th, then the novelty wore off.:)

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1 hour ago, RCAF48 said:

Wright isn't Bedard, however he is a solid 200 ft player with good leadership qualities and IMO will be a NHL top 6 forward so I'm not sure that we dodged a bullet

Its certainly too early to tell but i just have this nagging feeling he's going to be a Jordan Staal player at best - which, dont get me wrong - is a quality player but if Slaf ends up as a 90 point winger (still a looong way off, if ever) we'll have regretted that pick.

1 hour ago, RCAF48 said:

As for the simulated draft above; no I can't imagine.................. :(. My first one had us picking 7th & 10th, second one 6th and 10th, then the novelty wore off.:)

If we keep playing like we have been, our odds will go up but its still an80-90 Chance we dont get Bedard. I think Fla's will go down but should still be a top 12-15 pick at least i hope. 

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42 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Its certainly too early to tell but i just have this nagging feeling he's going to be a Jordan Staal player at best - which, dont get me wrong - is a quality player

Ah yes the 2006 draft...............another year in which the Montreal scouting staff got a participation award for 1st round drafting.:)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Screen Shot 2023-01-21 at 1.39.24 PM.png

Teams have around 34-36 games remaining. Thats a possibly 70ish points.  With the worst teams hitting .311 - .400 that means they likely get around 20 -25 points the remainder of the way.  So if you want to finish bottom 3, you're likely going to want to have no more than 50-55 points (maybe even less).  We currently have 41 so our chances of finishing that far down are pretty slim.  Unless Columbus, Chicago, Anaheim and Arizona all take a big step forward, we're likely finishing 5-7 - that is, unless we seriously lose like every game from now on..  

If we win more than 6 or 7 of our next 35 games we likely are out of running for last place. 

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41 minutes ago, maas_art said:

Screen Shot 2023-01-21 at 1.39.24 PM.png

Teams have around 34-36 games remaining. Thats a possibly 70ish points.  With the worst teams hitting .311 - .400 that means they likely get around 20 -25 points the remainder of the way.  So if you want to finish bottom 3, you're likely going to want to have no more than 50-55 points (maybe even less).  We currently have 41 so our chances of finishing that far down are pretty slim.  Unless Columbus, Chicago, Anaheim and Arizona all take a big step forward, we're likely finishing 5-7 - that is, unless we seriously lose like every game from now on..  

If we win more than 6 or 7 of our next 35 games we likely are out of running for last place. 

Agreed that it'll be hard for us to "catch" the bottom 3-4 teams. It would be like thinking what the odds are of our catching a team 8-13 points in front of us right now. Slim. Doable but slim. It's also noteworthy that a number of the teams below us could be trading away key players: Horvat and Boeser in Vancouver, Toews and Kane in Chicago, Karlsson in SJ, etc. Conversely, we might be looking at trading Monahan (who we've been without half the season already, so not much effect now) and Edmundson (which probably doesn't make us that much worse to be honest). So the fall-off in level of play could be much more important for other teams.

On the flip side, Montreal has the toughest remaining strength of schedule left. Among teams we're battling with, Phi has the 3rd toughest, Clb the 6th toughest, Ott the 8th toughest, and SJ the 14th toughest. Conversely, Van, Ana, and Ari all have some of the top 10 easiest remaining schedules. So you never know. Florida, for what it's worth, now has the 10th-hardest remaining SOS.

If we break down the Habs' remaining 36 games, this is how they lay out for us:

- 19 home and 17 away

- 9 of the road games are against teams who have very strong odds of being in the playoffs. 2 of the others are against Ana and SJ as part of a West Coast road trip. The remaining 6 are a bit more up in the air, as they're against Ott, Phi x 2, NYI, Fla, and Buf. Harder to know how those will go.

- 11 of the home games are against teams with good odds of being in the playoffs. The others include 6 against fringe teams (Ott x2, Det, NYI, Fla, and Det) and then throw-away games against Clb and Chi.

So let's say we play .250 hockey in the 20 games against playoff-bound teams and .500 hockey in the 12 games against the fringe teams, and .750 hockey in the 4 games against bottom-feeders, even with two of those being out West. That's probably as good as we're likely to do and there are good odds we do worse than that. That record would leave us with 28 more points in the remaining 36 games, or a .389 winning percentage the rest of the way. Right now, we're at .446, but you'd expect a bit of a fall-off given our remaining SOS and the fact we have injuries and maybe trade deadline giveaways. So .389 feels about right. 28 more points would leave us on 69 for the year. So how does that compare to what The Athletic and 538's models predict for us? The Athletic has us at exactly that: 69 points and finishing 5th last, ahead of only Chi, Clb, Ana, and Ari. We'd narrowly edge SJ at 7 points and be well clear of everyone else. But the bottom 3 teams would all be expected to finish with 54-57 points, so we're not coming anywhere close to them, and Arizona checks in at 64, still a good margin clear of us. 538, meanwhile, has us 6th-last at 73 points, predicting we'll clear Ari (68 pts) as well as SJ (69 pts). So there are good odds we're going to end up in the 4th to 7th last range because the swing in points we would need to fall out of that range would be pretty big.

And while we're here, 538 has the Panthers missing the playoffs at 91 points while The Athletic has them missing narrowly by one point at 95. Here's hoping the Panthers have no cap space to add at the deadline while their competition (Pit, Was, NYI, NYR, Buf) make moves to get better. But overall, we're trending to having one pick in the 4-7 range and one pick in the 13-16 range right now.

 

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