Trade Deadline 2023

[BigTed3]

Just a month and half away now. The Habs are clearly going to be sellers. So with that in mind, here are my thoughts on where our assets sit:

1. Monahan: he's expected back in the next week or two and he'll have some work to do to re-establish value. Before his injury, he was clearly trending to being worth a 1st rounder and more. I think he can still net that, but he'll have to show he can play at the same level as earlier in the year. The fact Montreal can retain salary here is huge because there aren't going to be too many 2C's available with his size and scoring ability at a touch over 3M. He'll be a rare commodity come deadline time and I expect a big return here.

2. Drouin: his value plummeted early in the year and suddenly over the past 2-3 weeks, it's climbing back up again. Drouin is putting up a few points, he's skating well, he's running the PP, and he's been used at both wing and center. Again, with his impending UFA status and the team's ability to retain salary, he could be an attractive secondary scoring piece for someone out there. I don't see a 1st rounder coming back, but is he worth more than say when we traded Kovalchuk a few years ago? I think we could be looking at something like a 2nd and a 5th rounder coming back or a good prospect and a mid-round draft choice.

3. Dadonov: like Drouin, he had nearly nil value a month ago. He's found some amount of resurgence lately and shown he can play a two-way role. He'll have minimal value come deadline but as another impending free agent, a 3rd to 5th rounder isn't out of the question here.

4. Hoffman: as opposed to JD and ED, Hoffman's value has fluctuated down lately as he hasn't been able to stick in the line-up. I could see a team liking his scoring ability but have a hard time believing someone will be willing to take him on with an extra year on his contract.

5. Armia: another case of a streaky guy picking up his game lately. I undoubtedly think Armia has playoff value and that GMs know it, so once again, the question becomes the fact that he's not a free agent. I could see us getting an asset here if we take back an equivalent expiring contract (e.g. Armia for an unwanted vet making 3-4M and a draft pick).

6. Edmundson: he's this year's Chiarot/Savard and again, I expect big value here in a trade, otherwise the Habs will just hang on to him until next year. He's been on two Cup final rosters and he's got a reputation as a playoff performer, so that will trump anything he's (not) doing this season on a bad roster. Put Eddy next to a strong RHD and he can be top 4, eat minutes, and play the PK. He doesn't fit in with what we're doing here, so a trade makes sense for everyone. I expect a late 1st rounder here or equivalent (e.g. Bourgault, Mavrik Bourque, etc.) or at worst two 2nd rounders.

7. Anderson: there's talk the Habs view him as part of the future, but this is the classic case of needing to sell high before the drop-off. Maybe this is more of a summertime trade, but teams could be infatuated with his package of speed, size, and skill, so I could see someone being intrigued by him, maybe Pittsburgh or Calgary, for example. The usual insiders have reported teams are lining up to go after him if he's made available, so I'd expect a package comparable to what Anthony Mantha brought back and say the return here should be a 1st and another good asset.

8. Savard: likewise, I can see teams being interested here but maybe not for this year. I don't think HuGo will deal him and Eddy at the same deadline, so the only way I think he gets moved is if the return for Savard outweighs what we are offered for Eddy.

9. Others... it's not out of the question that we look at trading the likes of Dvorak or Allen, but the odds are low. But how about Sam Montembeault? The Habs need to make a decision on whether he's on the upswing or whether he's never going to have starter potential. Selling an NHL-experienced back-up could garner a mid-round draft pick.

[claremont]

20 hours ago, BigTed3 said:

Just a month and half away now. The Habs are clearly going to be sellers. So with that in mind, here are my thoughts on where our assets sit:.

Good thoughts BigTed3 - my fear is overestimation so I will look at this in a different way based on teams' abilities to consumate a trade within the cap constraints.

Let's not confuse aspirations and the "where there's a will, there's a way" thinking on the playoff teams wanting to go all in for a serious run. Demand and desire to improve need has to fit with the ability to do it. The problem is that many of the playoff teams are so cap compromised, that they don't have the mechanics to provide the cap space to grab some of our assets. Forget about the demand to change their roster vs the supply of other teams sellers - I am going to discuss the pure ability to effect a trade amongst the top 20 teams in the jockey position

As my first examples, here's 5 teams severely compromised ($0 to $1.5M of cap room)

Pittsburgh - Their aging roster has $0 cap room. They need some players to be on LTIR (which are coming back), or have to go to a 21 or 22 man roster to eke out $750k - $1.5M of cap room. The alternative - try to trade an existing UFA roster player like Kasperi Kapanen $3M or Teddy Blueger $2.2M. How many teams trade a roster contributor, that for 2/3 of the season have helped them get to their contending status?

Boston - Almost the same as Pitt above as right at the cap limit - Are at a 21 man roster waiting for DeBrusk to come back. No rental this year unless Foligno waives a 16 team NTC, or Craig Smith - $3M or Tomas Nowak $1.75M are traded. Again - morally and team chemistry perhaps damaged when you dump a roster player that has helped the team to get to their contending status for 2/3 of the year

Tampa Bay- 22 man roster - only about $720K of room. NO 1st round pick to trade - same as above - which roster player may they dump for a better rental?

Colorado - About $220K of cap room once Josh Manson and Gabriel Landeskog come off LTIR. Which roster player gets moved for their rental upgrade?

Washington - Have less than $500K of cap room once Carlsson returns from injury - same thing

Vegas - 22 man roster and maybe $1.1M cap room assuming Shea Theodore comes off LTIR

Dallas - 22 man roster already - no 1st round pick probably by my calc's has $500K of cap room - tough to make roster changes

LA Kings - is this their window year or next with aging roster of Kopitar, Doughty, Quick? They are on a 21 man roster dangerously thin on depth. By my calc's they have about $1.5M of room to spend on a rental vs. trading a roster player and then it becomes who?

Edmonton - They have to do some cap gymnastics when Evander Kane $5.25M cap hit returns and you can't trade for any of their dead cap of $4.2M. They might have about $1M of room if they went to a 21 man roster, or $2M if they push Pulijarvi to the minors.  At this point they have to trade Jesse Pulijarvi at $3M (a clear under performer) or some other roster player if they want an upgrade

so almost half of the contenders have major cap room issues

Let's look at the 2nd tier ($1.5M to $3M);

NY Rangers - I calculate they have about $1.4M of cap room but no terrible UFA roster players to move unless they trade Kakko - $2.1M or Lafraniere at 925K. They move to a 22 man roster would free about another 800K to get to $2.2M of room. The attractive part about the Rangers from my inside scout contact is they have an impatient ownership, but also 2 first round picks to dangle. 

Leafs - $1.4M cap room with current roster assuming Muzzin retires and could probably cut another $1.6M of lower end players to give them $3M to target a defenseman - Do they trade a UFA roster player like Pierre Engvall at $2.25M to push them into a higher tier?

St. Louis Blues - Assuming O'Reilly, Taresenko, Krug come back, may have about $2M in cap room but Blues are likely to be a seller with their weakened lineup. 

Let's look at the free swingers - the 3rd tier

Carolina - already at a 22 man roster excluding the emergency 3rd goalie - I calculate they have just over $3M of cap room

Winnipeg - Will have $3-$4M of cap room even when Mason Appleton and Logan Stanley return - could this me be a destination for Monahan?

Minnesota - At a 22 man roster. Even with all of their buyout dead cap of 12.74M still have about $4.5M of cap room. Guerin is known for bold moves. 

Nashville - at a 22 man roster - I calculate they have about $3M of cap room

Seattle - $5M of cap room assuming Dreidger a goalie on LTIR (ACL) is done. Is Francis bold enough to make a competitive move just yet?

New Jersey - I calculate about $4M of room this assuming Marino comes back from LTIR. Note the Devils could have even more, if someone can pick up the approximate $2.3M of dead cap space on Andreas Johnsson's demoted to the minors UFA contract (10 team NTC - $3.375M 1 year UFA)

Calgary - Already at a 22 man roster. I calculate they have about $2.5M of cap room. Which UFA can they move off their roster? Lucic has a 10 team NTC. Flames could move to the 3rd tier with over $4.5M of cap room,  if Oliver Killington is similar to a Drouin and is out long term for personal reasons. 

Islanders - Assuming their injured players on LTIR come back, have likely $3.5M-$4.5M of cap room to make an impact. Their goaltending is top notch - their scoring is suspect IMO

Summary Observations

I really only practically see about 8 teams having the ability to chase additions in the $3M plus range which is where Monahan and some other moderate cap hit rentals like Horvat fit. With the cap not increasing much from last year and a lot of teams spending close to the cap at the beginning of the season, it looks like a tough bidding market especially with players like O'Rielly, Tarasenko and even more so for a Kane, Toews, Van Riemsdyk, Nyquist, Klingberg and especially someone like Karlsson from San Jose. Could be very tough to move Josh Anderson (unless New Jersey). 

Edmundson can fit a number of teams. I am doubtful on Hoffman or Drouin or Dadonov for anything of value. 

I do like the idea of taking back Pulijarvi from Edmonton, or Andreas Jonsson's contract from New Jersey with salary retention on Monahan to facilitate. 

[Regis22]

https://www.thestar.com/sports/hockey/opinion/2023/01/20/chris-johnstons-nhl-trade-board-sizing-up-the-market-ahead-of-the-deadline.html

Chris Johnston’s NHL Trade Board: Sizing up the market ahead of the deadline

There are Stanley Cup winners, future Hall of Famers and players still coming into their own. A closer look at who could move before March 3.

[claremont]

We only have 3 games before the all star break so I suspect why rush Monahan back and give him the extra rest on his broken foot. 
A 10 game sample size before the trade deadline should be sufficient for buyers to do enough scouting due diligence on Monahan. At $3.2M assuming 50% salary retention, I still feel that is a fair value for Monahan to be traded for a first round pick, and/or take a bad contract back or toss in a compensatory 4th round pick. 
I suspect HuGo will swing for the fences on securing as many top picks in this draft - if that means trading Josh Anderson and the offer is sufficient in value, I believe they will take that. 
IMO we as fans overvalue Edmundson, but certainly hope that he can be a part of a package for a prospect or late first. 
Certainly want Molson to green light some salary retention/cap hits for next year, to buy draft picks or prospects 
 

[maas_art]

27 minutes ago, claremont said:

We only have 3 games before the all star break so I suspect why rush Monahan back and give him the extra rest on his broken foot. 
A 10 game sample size before the trade deadline should be sufficient for buyers to do enough scouting due diligence on Monahan. At $3.2M assuming 50% salary retention, I still feel that is a fair value for Monahan to be traded for a first round pick, and/or take a bad contract back or toss in a compensatory 4th round pick. 
I suspect HuGo will swing for the fences on securing as many top picks in this draft - if that means trading Josh Anderson and the offer is sufficient in value, I believe they will take that. 
IMO we as fans overvalue Edmundson, but certainly hope that he can be a part of a package for a prospect or late first. 
Certainly want Molson to green light some salary retention/cap hits for next year, to buy draft picks or prospects 
 

Hughes has said they want (at minimum) 1 more first rounder for this draft.  If he could walk away from this year's TD with 2 more? I think he'd be estatic. 

I think there's a chance he's trying to make a deal for a guy like Nemec out of NJ (I also think he's enquired about Noah Ostlund out of Barfalo since they really wanted him at the draft). 

All in all, i think there are guys in play. I think Monahan is probably 70/30 to be traded (if he does stay, i wouldnt be surprised at all to see him take a 1 year show me deal)

I think Eddy and Anderson both have a 50/50 shot at being dealt. Maybe Savard too (although not both Eddy and Savard)

I think Hoffman may have worked his way into trade talks with a good uptick of points the last few weeks. Too bad he has that extra year on the deal but someone may bite

Guys like Dadanov, Drouin etc - may be on the move but it would be in a very limited insurance sort of deal... probably not bringing back much of anything. 

[claremont]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I think Hoffman may have worked his way into trade talks with a good uptick of points the last few weeks. Too bad he has that extra year on the deal but someone may bite

Guys like Dadanov, Drouin etc - may be on the move but it would be in a very limited insurance sort of deal... probably not bringing back much of anything. 

We have 3 4th round picks and 2 5th round picks for 2023 - might as well get 2024 4th round and 5th round picks for any of Drouin, Dadonov and Hoffman 

[claremont]

14 hours ago, maas_art said:

 

I think there's a chance he's trying to make a deal for a guy like Nemec out of NJ (I also think he's enquired about Noah Ostlund out of Barfalo since they really wanted him at the draft). 

One team I missed in my summary of trade deadline cap space was Barfalo and we may in 2 years time call them BUFFED A LOT. Quietly they have raised their game into wild card contender status (games in hand on Washington, Pittsburgh, Florida ), as I did not forecast that. Ownership is notoriously cheap there but they have by my calc's over $20M of cap room should they choose to be active at the trade deadline and make a push for the playoffs (I suspect they are more than 1 year away from higher contention). They are one of the few teams that could chase the top end players Kane, Toews, Erik Karlsson, Tarasenko (NMC's - doubt they want to go there) or otherwise. The bad news is the Habs don;t have much to offer them beyond a Josh Anderson or Sean Monahan, and the liklihood of a trade with us is probably slim.

BUFFED A LOT - this is a team with a good prospect pool from tanking for prolonged periods - Ostlund, Savoie, Kulich all centres and Isak Rosen RW - all first round picks. Not to mention an emerging core with Tage Thompson, Cozens, Krebs, Peterka, and they have their 1st and 4 second round picks for 2023. Not to mention 2 stud bookends in Dahlin and Power. I know, what took them so long and a lot of suffering losing seasons along the way, but this could be a team to watch out for in the years to come, as their arrow appears to be pointing up. Definitely looks like a model for HuGo to emulate with draft picks. 

[CaptWelly]

16 hours ago, maas_art said:

Hughes has said they want (at minimum) 1 more first rounder for this draft.  If he could walk away from this year's TD with 2 more? I think he'd be estatic. 

I think there's a chance he's trying to make a deal for a guy like Nemec out of NJ (I also think he's enquired about Noah Ostlund out of Barfalo since they really wanted him at the draft). 

All in all, i think there are guys in play. I think Monahan is probably 70/30 to be traded (if he does stay, i wouldnt be surprised at all to see him take a 1 year show me deal)

I think Eddy and Anderson both have a 50/50 shot at being dealt. Maybe Savard too (although not both Eddy and Savard)

I think Hoffman may have worked his way into trade talks with a good uptick of points the last few weeks. Too bad he has that extra year on the deal but someone may bite

Guys like Dadanov, Drouin etc - may be on the move but it would be in a very limited insurance sort of deal... probably not bringing back much of anything. 

It would seem strange to me to now go after Nemac when he could of drafted him straight out. Unless he now thinks it was the wrong choice. I think if he could get him it would be a plus. Nemac could potentially be the best from that draft. 

[maas_art]

13 minutes ago, CaptWelly said:

It would seem strange to me to now go after Nemac when he could of drafted him straight out. Unless he now thinks it was the wrong choice. I think if he could get him it would be a plus. Nemac could potentially be the best from that draft. 

Well i think the thinking is they picked the player they see as projecting the best/long-term.  But I am sure they looked at players like Nemec, Cooley and we know they wanted Ostlund etc...  So its not so much they they would think they got the wrong guy but now being able to have the top 2 players in the draft is just a bonus. 

[HabsAlways]

1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

It would seem strange to me to now go after Nemac when he could of drafted him straight out. Unless he now thinks it was the wrong choice. I think if he could get him it would be a plus. Nemac could potentially be the best from that draft. 

Better to have two top end prospects than just one ... going after Nemec isn't admitting Slaf was the wrong choice, its coveting Nemec to ADD to the cupboard of prospects

[CaptWelly]

50 minutes ago, HabsAlways said:

Better to have two top end prospects than just one ... going after Nemec isn't admitting Slaf was the wrong choice, its coveting Nemec to ADD to the cupboard of prospects

I wonder if NJ would take our 1st. round pick from Florida? 

[ramcharger440]

2 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

It would seem strange to me to now go after Nemac when he could of drafted him straight out. Unless he now thinks it was the wrong choice. I think if he could get him it would be a plus. Nemac could potentially be the best from that draft. 

Not strange at all! you can only pick one so you take the one you feel is best but if you liked the other guy too and now find you can get him as well why does it have to be a mistake? Sometimes it is just good fortune that you get to add another good player to your roster. Of course some folks like to be negative..........

[CaptWelly]

3 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Not strange at all! you can only pick one so you take the one you feel is best but if you liked the other guy too and now find you can get him as well why does it have to be a mistake? Sometimes it is just good fortune that you get to add another good player to your roster. Of course some folks like to be negative..........

The above is true for every GM and every draft. We still see fans media everybody debating about these decisions every draft with every team. Every time you can always go back and try to acquire a player you may have wanted also. So every draft there are "negative' comments. Was JK the best choice at #3? He was what our team felt was best. I know everyone is hoping the best as I am also. It does seem that any criticism of the new management is now much more harshly come down. N.J. might make the trade for C/C a scoring winger which is a need for them. That or maybe our 1st round pick. Even if they have other defenseman. They may feel he projects to be a top defenseman and you can't really have to many. 

[ramcharger440]

Umm, I don't think there is any ''harsh come down'' in my opinion most of us are fairly happy with the direction the new group are taking the team in. For sure no one is perfect  but this new group is making sound decisions and they are willing to use more resources to make those decisions. Of course if you feel differently that's cool we don't all have to agree to be fans, I disagree with many posters on here but they have every right to an opinion too.

[maas_art]

3 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

. It does seem that any criticism of the new management is now much more harshly come down.

I think a lot of that is timing.  Most fans gave MB a lot of slack in his first few years.  Its tough to compare HuGo's 1st & the receptiveness of the fans to MB's 9th season. 

Its definitely still the honeymoon faze & it may all end in divorce but for now, im quietly optimistic - and moreso than when MB took over despite us having a far less polished and established team right now.  

[H_T_L]

34 minutes ago, maas_art said:

I think a lot of that is timing.  Most fans gave MB a lot of slack in his first few years.  Its tough to compare HuGo's 1st & the receptiveness of the fans to MB's 9th season. 

Its definitely still the honeymoon faze & it may all end in divorce but for now, im quietly optimistic - and moreso than when MB took over despite us having a far less polished and established team right now.  

Agreed. I think MB got a lot of slack in his first 5 years. I'm willing to give the same to the current group. Any extension better be performance based, 

[claremont]

1 hour ago, maas_art said:

I think a lot of that is timing.  Most fans gave MB a lot of slack in his first few years.  Its tough to compare HuGo's 1st & the receptiveness of the fans to MB's 9th season. 

Its definitely still the honeymoon faze & it may all end in divorce but for now, im quietly optimistic - and moreso than when MB took over despite us having a far less polished and established team right now.  

If I recall correctly MB had some early success with the Habs and many of us thought the reset / retool was working. Couple that with the success of Carey and some of it worked. The issue then became the difficulty in seeing a growth plan for improvement. 
Now HuGo are showing a draft and youth plan  by selling assets such as Toffoli, Lehkonen, Chiarot, coaching freshness in MSL, and locking up Suzuki. 
I suspect that if we start to see some inconsistencies such as overpaying or overcommitting to veterans and lack of achieving growth, and draft duds, then you’re likely correct on the honeymoon period evaporating. 

[jennifer_rocket]

I'm pretty happy with Hughes so far. I think the current management's tenure has been far too short to warrant any real feedback. Best to wait to see how things unfold over the next few years before making any complete judgements on their ability to run a team. I'll be even happier with them if Hughes unloads players like Monahan, Dadonov, and Drouin (and maybe even Edmundson and Hoffman) before the deadline and acquires us a draft pick or two.

[H_T_L]

Laraque at it again,,,

Laraque played 490 games in an Oilers uniform and suited up in 61 matches for the Canadiens from 2008-2010. He’s now a Montreal-based media personality with ties to both teams. That said, he appeared on the “Oilers Now” show on Jan. 26 and warned that the Oilers should completely avoid any trade involving Edmundson due to injuries.

 

Joel Edmundson.. no word of a lie, his back is done. He [has] a herniated problems in his back, he has an ice pack [on] his back all the time, and he’s slowed down a lot. He’s a big disappointment because, not that because he doesn’t want to, but physically, he just can’t do it anymore. Often, he’s seen getting treatment on his back and, you know, he just can’t do it. So, the Oilers cannot go there.

– Georges Laraque

Laraque concluded that he wants the Oilers to win a Cup, and if they added Edmundson, he’d slow them down. As he likely has connections within the Canadiens’ organization, he alluded that the defenceman’s strength, which is his physicality, could likely be a weakness moving forward. If I were general manager (GM) Ken Holland, I’d take that information with a grain of salt, but also know that Laraque is looking out for his former team, as he personifies the saying “Once an Oiler, always an Oiler.”

Guess we all know now where his loyalty lies

[Regis22]

I think GL took too many hits to the head . I'm sure if JE has back issues the Oilers would proceed with caution , full medical , etc 

 

 

[habs1952]

1 hour ago, H_T_L said:

Laraque at it again,,,

Laraque played 490 games in an Oilers uniform and suited up in 61 matches for the Canadiens from 2008-2010. He’s now a Montreal-based media personality with ties to both teams. That said, he appeared on the “Oilers Now” show on Jan. 26 and warned that the Oilers should completely avoid any trade involving Edmundson due to injuries.

 

Joel Edmundson.. no word of a lie, his back is done. He [has] a herniated problems in his back, he has an ice pack [on] his back all the time, and he’s slowed down a lot. He’s a big disappointment because, not that because he doesn’t want to, but physically, he just can’t do it anymore. Often, he’s seen getting treatment on his back and, you know, he just can’t do it. So, the Oilers cannot go there.

– Georges Laraque

Laraque concluded that he wants the Oilers to win a Cup, and if they added Edmundson, he’d slow them down. As he likely has connections within the Canadiens’ organization, he alluded that the defenceman’s strength, which is his physicality, could likely be a weakness moving forward. If I were general manager (GM) Ken Holland, I’d take that information with a grain of salt, but also know that Laraque is looking out for his former team, as he personifies the saying “Once an Oiler, always an Oiler.”

Guess we all know now where his loyalty lies

He's been out of the game for 12 years, can't see what ties he would still have with either team unless someone is feeding him misinformation.

[H_T_L]

The thing is that the guy is making money as some supposed insider with the team and here he is giving out injury reports about one of our intended trade targets to the enemy. Hope he loses his job over this. Let Oiler fans have him.

[BigTed3]

Chris Johnston reporting that the Bruins need to add a LHD with some grit/defensive ability and says he personally sees Joel Edmundson as the right fit. He says a potential return could be a 2nd rounder and a prospect. If that's the case, I'd pass and sell Eddy next year. Getting a pick in the 60-64 range doesn't interest me as being a good enough return, especially to sell to a rival.

[ChiLla]

4 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Chris Johnston reporting that the Bruins need to add a LHD with some grit/defensive ability and says he personally sees Joel Edmundson as the right fit. He says a potential return could be a 2nd rounder and a prospect. If that's the case, I'd pass and sell Eddy next year. Getting a pick in the 60-64 range doesn't interest me as being a good enough return, especially to sell to a rival.

Yeah, no thanks. That‘s not remotely enough for Edmundson, plus it‘s the Bruins. No reason for us to help them out.

[electron58]

7 minutes ago, BigTed3 said:

Chris Johnston reporting that the Bruins need to add a LHD with some grit/defensive ability and says he personally sees Joel Edmundson as the right fit. He says a potential return could be a 2nd rounder and a prospect. If that's the case, I'd pass and sell Eddy next year. Getting a pick in the 60-64 range doesn't interest me as being a good enough return, especially to sell to a rival.

Well, I can see Eddy going the LTIR route. So, either way  his contract will come off the books. I don't expect to get anything for Eddy.