NY Rangers - the Rags

[claremont]

With the Rangers bounced, and RFA Lafraniere absolutely stinking going 0 fer in their 7 games, Panarin was invisible but $11.6M for next 3 years - time to look at the pressures facing the Rangers for improvement next year as follows;

1) Roster as currently constructed per Cap friendly under contract for 2023-24 - 10 forwards, 5 D, 2G and cap room of 10.07M however a little bit misleading as you have to really add back 2 "filler" Forwards Leschysun and Brodzinski ($767K and $763K) and a defenseman Ben Harpur - $888K and their backup goalie is Domingue $775K - so really they have 8 forwards (assumed Vesey is kept), and 4D, 1G - cap room adjusted to $13.26M

2) RFA pressures - first Andre Miller - solid LHD. Minimum floor for his deal is expected to be $3.5M and could go to $5M - I will assume $4m. Now the question mark if #1 overall Lafraniere - a 15 g 20a LW. Traded, or subject to an offer sheet? Sure he wants the Stutzle deal of 8 years, but i suspect a bridge at $2 Million, but at that value for a 2nd round pick by an offering team, LAF, can be worth $4M. A sign and trade deal? LAF is 3rd line behind Panarin and Krieder for minutes. This will be interesting

3) At best, if you take the cap room of $13.26M less $4M for Miller, $2M for LAF - $7.26M remains for use to fill 4 more forwards (13 total), 2 more D after Miller (7) and a backup goalie (1), to get to a 22 man roster let alone a 23 man roster, Rangers need some entry level / low cost players much like other teams, to fill out their team. .$1M LW Drouin anyone? I could see LW prospect Will Cuylle making the jump. LW Brennan Othman probably a year away. LHD RFA Zachary Jones is cheap filler

4) Given the cap situation, might be hard for the Rags to make a splash in free agency. Panarin has a full NMC, and most of their forwards other than Kakko ($2.1M) are on long term contracts. Trades may be very tough for this team. They have the 24th overall first round pick - given their prospect pool, not sure that will be in play. 

The most intriguing aspect here, is whether they believe in LAF vs. trading him vs. protecting him from a $4.2M offer sheet. For the Habs assuming we could dump or buyout Hoffman, a LW side of Caufield, Slavkovsky, LAF, Heineman, RHP / Farrell is a great mix of youth. Is LAF the Dach move for 2023?

[Regis22]

A little bit of info I read about Mr Laf on Facebook 

In the 7 games against the Devils he had “zero “ ( so they say ) 

goals, assists , points, PIMS,  plus /minus, faceoff%, net take aways 

and he was a 1st overall .

 

 

[jennifer_rocket]

Not sure what to make of Lafreniere and Kakko. Both players were about 0.5 PPG this season. Which I guess is fine, but... I feel like you really want them to start producing more given their draft profile. Did either of them take a step forward in their development this season? Is there anything about their respective 2022-23 seasons that would make anyone think they're ready to become important top-six players in the league?

[maas_art]

24 minutes ago, jennifer_rocket said:

Not sure what to make of Lafreniere and Kakko. Both players were about 0.5 PPG this season. Which I guess is fine, but... I feel like you really want them to start producing more given their draft profile. Did either of them take a step forward in their development this season? Is there anything about their respective 2022-23 seasons that would make anyone think they're ready to become important top-six players in the league?

Laf is looking more and more like a bust (as 1st overall, not as an NHLer).  I could see him getting traded in the next 12-18 months. I dont think they will get much for him & its unlikely a change of scenery will do much but you never know.    Considering how good guys like Stutzle and Raymond have looked, i think the rags really messed up that pick.  Having said all that, its a shame to call him a bust. He's 21. He's proven he's at least a quality middle six, 40point player but... just not even close to a 1st overall  - unless something changes dramatically. 

Kakko is tougher because he's looked stronger overall this year but still not amazing. That draft was a big mess though - Hughes took a while to get going, Dach is only just coming into his own & then the rest of the top 10 has been mostly underwhelming although some of them are coming into their own now (Seider, Zegras etc)

I think the pandemic really messed up development, especially on some of these guys that were rushed to the NHL too soon.   

[claremont]

2 hours ago, maas_art said:

Laf is looking more and more like a bust (as 1st overall, not as an NHLer).  I could see him getting traded in the next 12-18 months. I dont think they will get much for him & its unlikely a change of scenery will do much but you never know.    Considering how good guys like Stutzle and Raymond have looked, i think the rags really messed up that pick.  Having said all that, its a shame to call him a bust. He's 21. He's proven he's at least a quality middle six, 40point player but... just not even close to a 1st overall  - unless something changes dramatically. 

Kakko is tougher because he's looked stronger overall this year but still not amazing. That draft was a big mess though - Hughes took a while to get going, Dach is only just coming into his own & then the rest of the top 10 has been mostly underwhelming although some of them are coming into their own now (Seider, Zegras etc)

I think the pandemic really messed up development, especially on some of these guys that were rushed to the NHL too soon.   

LAF may be looking like a bust but it could be the Rangers development process that is flawed, and has hampered his development. A deeper look as follows;

1) Look at previous draft picks of the Rangers since 2017. In 2017 - #7 C - Lias Andersson quit the rangers, returned to Sweden amid reports of bullying, and depression. He was traded for the Kings 2nd overall pick. Andersson seems to have a mini-recovery in LA with their farm club (see my LA Kings post for more on him). In 2018 - #9 overall Vitali Kravtsov - started with their AHL club, back to KHL and now with Vancouver, but was a bust with the Rangers. Same draft #28 overall RHD Nils Lundkvist - left in Sweden to develop for 3 more years, and the Rags gave up on him and dumped him to Dallas where he put up 6g, 10a in 60 games. 2019 - #2 overall Kaapo Kakko has not exactly thrived in New York - Underlying reasons? 2020 - #1 Laf - same bust projections. Rangers snakebit luck or is it their development - seems too much of a coincidence for the former.

2) LAF playing 3rd line minutes behind Panarin, Krieder - You would think he should have been given chances including 2nd unit PP.

So you may be right, could have been rushed to the forefront too soon with too many expectations, and not enough development. Still time - he's not the over the hill 25 age 

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, claremont said:

LAF may be looking like a bust but it could be the Rangers development process that is flawed, and has hampered his development. A deeper look as follows;

1) Look at previous draft picks of the Rangers since 2017. In 2017 - #7 C - Lias Andersson quit the rangers, returned to Sweden amid reports of bullying, and depression. He was traded for the Kings 2nd overall pick. Andersson seems to have a mini-recovery in LA with their farm club (see my LA Kings post for more on him). In 2018 - #9 overall Vitali Kravtsov - started with their AHL club, back to KHL and now with Vancouver, but was a bust with the Rangers. Same draft #28 overall RHD Nils Lundkvist - left in Sweden to develop for 3 more years, and the Rags gave up on him and dumped him to Dallas where he put up 6g, 10a in 60 games. 2019 - #2 overall Kaapo Kakko has not exactly thrived in New York - Underlying reasons? 2020 - #1 Laf - same bust projections. Rangers snakebit luck or is it their development - seems too much of a coincidence for the former.

2) LAF playing 3rd line minutes behind Panarin, Krieder - You would think he should have been given chances including 2nd unit PP.

So you may be right, could have been rushed to the forefront too soon with too many expectations, and not enough development. Still time - he's not the over the hill 25 age 

Totally agree on all counts. And I also hesitate to call anyone a 'bust' - Look at Tage Thompson who looked like he may never even make the NHL as recently as 2020-21 when he was already 23 and then exploded with nearly a ppg in his next season and 94 points last year.   Its still possible Laf turns it around - although maybe not with the Rags - but its looking less likely. I have more faith Kappo will be able to do it. 

And very interesting point about their high picks of late. I hadnt really paid much attention but thats a lot of very highly drafted guys who all seem to have been underperfoming... 

[campabee82]

3 hours ago, claremont said:

LAF may be looking like a bust but it could be the Rangers development process that is flawed, and has hampered his development. A deeper look as follows;

1) Look at previous draft picks of the Rangers since 2017. In 2017 - #7 C - Lias Andersson quit the rangers, returned to Sweden amid reports of bullying, and depression. He was traded for the Kings 2nd overall pick. Andersson seems to have a mini-recovery in LA with their farm club (see my LA Kings post for more on him). In 2018 - #9 overall Vitali Kravtsov - started with their AHL club, back to KHL and now with Vancouver, but was a bust with the Rangers. Same draft #28 overall RHD Nils Lundkvist - left in Sweden to develop for 3 more years, and the Rags gave up on him and dumped him to Dallas where he put up 6g, 10a in 60 games. 2019 - #2 overall Kaapo Kakko has not exactly thrived in New York - Underlying reasons? 2020 - #1 Laf - same bust projections. Rangers snakebit luck or is it their development - seems too much of a coincidence for the former.

2) LAF playing 3rd line minutes behind Panarin, Krieder - You would think he should have been given chances including 2nd unit PP.

So you may be right, could have been rushed to the forefront too soon with too many expectations, and not enough development. Still time - he's not the over the hill 25 age 

Question here, how many of these guys were drafted by Gorton? I know Kakko and Laf were but who else? It may be a bit of a concern if they were all drafted by him.

[Regis22]

According to Wikipedia, Hughes was GM of the rangers from 2015 to 2021 

 

 

[ramcharger440]

1 hour ago, Regis22 said:

According to Wikipedia, Hughes was GM of the rangers from 2015 to 2021 

 

 

Hughes who? you mean our Hughes who was a player agent during that time?

[ramcharger440]

4 hours ago, maas_art said:

Totally agree on all counts. And I also hesitate to call anyone a 'bust' - Look at Tage Thompson who looked like he may never even make the NHL as recently as 2020-21 when he was already 23 and then exploded with nearly a ppg in his next season and 94 points last year.   Its still possible Laf turns it around - although maybe not with the Rags - but its looking less likely. I have more faith Kappo will be able to do it. 

And very interesting point about their high picks of late. I hadnt really paid much attention but thats a lot of very highly drafted guys who all seem to have been underperfoming... 

I am not a big fan of Gallant it is not for nothing he has bounced around a lot! seems like a nice guy but kind of has old school idea's.

[Regis22]

33 minutes ago, ramcharger440 said:

Hughes who? you mean our Hughes who was a player agent during that time?

Gorton

[maas_art]

2 hours ago, Regis22 said:

According to Wikipedia, Hughes was GM of the rangers from 2015 to 2021 

 

 

I know you meant Gorton - and its true, he was with the Rags for some good and bad drafts. He also ran the 2006 Bruins draft where he drafted Kessel, Marchand and Lucic (and traded for Rask) which is one of the all time greatest hauls in a single year.

I also think its important to remember that its not just Gorton, Hughes has a bigger part in the vision and drafting from what we are being shown... 

[CaptWelly]

13 hours ago, claremont said:

With the Rangers bounced, and RFA Lafraniere absolutely stinking going 0 fer in their 7 games, Panarin was invisible but $11.6M for next 3 years - time to look at the pressures facing the Rangers for improvement next year as follows;

1) Roster as currently constructed per Cap friendly under contract for 2023-24 - 10 forwards, 5 D, 2G and cap room of 10.07M however a little bit misleading as you have to really add back 2 "filler" Forwards Leschysun and Brodzinski ($767K and $763K) and a defenseman Ben Harpur - $888K and their backup goalie is Domingue $775K - so really they have 8 forwards (assumed Vesey is kept), and 4D, 1G - cap room adjusted to $13.26M

2) RFA pressures - first Andre Miller - solid LHD. Minimum floor for his deal is expected to be $3.5M and could go to $5M - I will assume $4m. Now the question mark if #1 overall Lafraniere - a 15 g 20a LW. Traded, or subject to an offer sheet? Sure he wants the Stutzle deal of 8 years, but i suspect a bridge at $2 Million, but at that value for a 2nd round pick by an offering team, LAF, can be worth $4M. A sign and trade deal? LAF is 3rd line behind Panarin and Krieder for minutes. This will be interesting

3) At best, if you take the cap room of $13.26M less $4M for Miller, $2M for LAF - $7.26M remains for use to fill 4 more forwards (13 total), 2 more D after Miller (7) and a backup goalie (1), to get to a 22 man roster let alone a 23 man roster, Rangers need some entry level / low cost players much like other teams, to fill out their team. .$1M LW Drouin anyone? I could see LW prospect Will Cuylle making the jump. LW Brennan Othman probably a year away. LHD RFA Zachary Jones is cheap filler

4) Given the cap situation, might be hard for the Rags to make a splash in free agency. Panarin has a full NMC, and most of their forwards other than Kakko ($2.1M) are on long term contracts. Trades may be very tough for this team. They have the 24th overall first round pick - given their prospect pool, not sure that will be in play. 

The most intriguing aspect here, is whether they believe in LAF vs. trading him vs. protecting him from a $4.2M offer sheet. For the Habs assuming we could dump or buyout Hoffman, a LW side of Caufield, Slavkovsky, LAF, Heineman, RHP / Farrell is a great mix of youth. Is LAF the Dach move for 2023?

Why do we want to trade for him? We don't know if Salv will be any better. Just because a player is drafted 1st overall doesn't mean they're going to be star players. It depends on the draft year as to where they may have went in perspective. So from what Laf has done to date I see no reason to go after him myself. 15-20 goal 3-4 liners are usually easy to come by. He hasn't proven to be better than that so far and he has been given the chances with NY. 

[claremont]

6 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

Why do we want to trade for him? We don't know if Salv will be any better. Just because a player is drafted 1st overall doesn't mean they're going to be star players. It depends on the draft year as to where they may have went in perspective. So from what Laf has done to date I see no reason to go after him myself. 15-20 goal 3-4 liners are usually easy to come by. He hasn't proven to be better than that so far and he has been given the chances with NY. 

If LAF can be bought on an offer sheet for $4m or less, and give up only a 2nd round draft pick - he's only 22 in October - I believe you do it. Doesn't look like he will be first line, but he could be top 6 and would provide a lot of youth on our wings whether some play RW or not. Far from washed up, may need a change of scenery. he's got some size vs. our smurfs - RHP, Farrell, Mesar, Kidney

Trade - depends on what one gives up - if it's the 2nd round pick this year and /or a spare part prospect - I think you do that too. No guarantee that he ascends like Dach apprears to be on the road to, or what Tage Thompson rediscovered, but I think the reward outweighs the risk. Seems a better upside then paying Gurianov $2.9M to retain him as an asset. Question for me is - does LAF want to be here vs. the french media pressure.

If 15g-20g 3-4 liners were easy to come by, why have we struck out on Drouin, Armia, Pitlick,a Paul Byron replacement, now likely Brendan Gallagher in decline, and been disappointed with Hoffman's play/value? At least Lafraniere has been playing 80 game seasons vs. our stack of porcelain dolls

[Habsology2]

19 hours ago, claremont said:

LAF may be looking like a bust but it could be the Rangers development process that is flawed, and has hampered his development. A deeper look as follows;

1) Look at previous draft picks of the Rangers since 2017. In 2017 - #7 C - Lias Andersson quit the rangers, returned to Sweden amid reports of bullying, and depression. He was traded for the Kings 2nd overall pick. Andersson seems to have a mini-recovery in LA with their farm club (see my LA Kings post for more on him). In 2018 - #9 overall Vitali Kravtsov - started with their AHL club, back to KHL and now with Vancouver, but was a bust with the Rangers. Same draft #28 overall RHD Nils Lundkvist - left in Sweden to develop for 3 more years, and the Rags gave up on him and dumped him to Dallas where he put up 6g, 10a in 60 games. 2019 - #2 overall Kaapo Kakko has not exactly thrived in New York - Underlying reasons? 2020 - #1 Laf - same bust projections. Rangers snakebit luck or is it their development - seems too much of a coincidence for the former.

2) LAF playing 3rd line minutes behind Panarin, Krieder - You would think he should have been given chances including 2nd unit PP.

So you may be right, could have been rushed to the forefront too soon with too many expectations, and not enough development. Still time - he's not the over the hill 25 age 

Very good analysis!

[CaptWelly]

4 hours ago, claremont said:

If LAF can be bought on an offer sheet for $4m or less, and give up only a 2nd round draft pick - he's only 22 in October - I believe you do it. Doesn't look like he will be first line, but he could be top 6 and would provide a lot of youth on our wings whether some play RW or not. Far from washed up, may need a change of scenery. he's got some size vs. our smurfs - RHP, Farrell, Mesar, Kidney

Trade - depends on what one gives up - if it's the 2nd round pick this year and /or a spare part prospect - I think you do that too. No guarantee that he ascends like Dach apprears to be on the road to, or what Tage Thompson rediscovered, but I think the reward outweighs the risk. Seems a better upside then paying Gurianov $2.9M to retain him as an asset. Question for me is - does LAF want to be here vs. the french media pressure.

If 15g-20g 3-4 liners were easy to come by, why have we struck out on Drouin, Armia, Pitlick,a Paul Byron replacement, now likely Brendan Gallagher in decline, and been disappointed with Hoffman's play/value? At least Lafraniere has been playing 80 game seasons vs. our stack of porcelain dolls

80 game seasons how many and the ones you mentioned aren't in year 3. No one knows if he'll stay healthy going forward. It may also be that Laf plays a more perimeter game not a hard game. Doesn't seem like he's in the dirty areas or making big hits much. If he did play a harder game he may have more points. He only played 52 games in year one he also missed time in the world juniors so he hasn't been totally injury free, but no player is. His highest season has been 39Pt.s So we're going to pay 4+million for a 4th liner? 

[claremont]

1 hour ago, CaptWelly said:

80 game seasons how many and the ones you mentioned aren't in year 3. No one knows if he'll stay healthy going forward. It may also be that Laf plays a more perimeter game not a hard game. Doesn't seem like he's in the dirty areas or making big hits much. If he did play a harder game he may have more points. He only played 52 games in year one he also missed time in the world juniors so he hasn't been totally injury free, but no player is. His highest season has been 39Pt.s So we're going to pay 4+million for a 4th liner? 

I understand your argument / opinion. $4.2 is the ceiling for a 2nd round pick offer sheet - not saying I or any other team would pay that, as the bottom range is $2.1M. It's a little unfair to paint LAF as a 4th line winger at this stage of his development. The 2 spots on our 4th line are probably taken at present - LW Pezzetta, or Pitlick , and at RW - Ylonen or Armia / Gallagher. Would have to think LAF has a higher future ceiling then either of those, and worth some degree of a gamble for the upside. 

[Regis22]

3 hours ago, CaptWelly said:

So we're going to pay 4+million for a 4th liner? 

We’re paying $6 m for a 30 yr old 3 rd liner 

[maas_art]

35 minutes ago, Regis22 said:

We’re paying $6 m for a 30 yr old 3 rd liner 

In fairness, when he's healthy, he's probably 2nd liner on most teams...

...but the chances of him playing more than 20 games a year without some sort of injury are really slim and when injured, he's a bottom 6 player for sure.